Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on April 05, 2022, 09:40:24 AM
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Kenya Kwanza - Sakaja is popular on the ground but Wanjiru is hard-nosed & will refuse to deal. Will Ruto risky Kikuyu vote - though Kikuyus dont feel that mama - they feel Sakaja more. Wanjiru may be prevailed to go for senate but she will refuse & go rogue. I think Ruto promised Sakaja governorship for delivering maDVD and he will stick to the deal. DPORK will go to Kikuyus - so Nairobi isnt critical.
Azimio - Ngatia has Uhuru in his pocket and has given Kalonzo man deputy governor. The people want Tim Weta brother and ODM adamant for now - they will fill him. Luhyas like Aladwa already bought by Ngatia
The way I see this.
1) Uhuru will force Raila to back Ngatia & Kalonzo man - Prof Kaloki. ODM will be given senator - Tim/Edwin - can fight it out - Poor Kamanda will see fire.
2) Ruto will eventually force Wanjiru to back Sakaja.
We will have Sakaja versus Ngatia - with Sakaja winning with a landslide. Ngatia is just coming off as project not connected to the people - and I dont see how ODM will survive Luhya backlash if they dont back Tim.
Ngatia can get Luo & Kamba automatons - that is 30 percent - and he will struggle for 20 percent to get 50 percent.
Sakaja likely to get GEMA (UDA+KK) of 30 percent and Luhyas of 15 percent - starting off with 45 percent- only needing 5 percent
Spoilers Tim and Wanjirus -
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It is a hard nut to crack. Kikuyu hustlers are very many in Nairobi to be ignored, so without shiro a large swath may gravitate to Project Ngatia while voting DP at the same time. Shiro is cut from sonko and can win the same way Sonko did, though I agree Sakaja would be better to run the county! Tim, like Sakaja, is Bukusu/Luhya's darling. Intense negotiations and serious greasing will have to take place. Bishop Shiro is not your regular lady! She is more streets than Sonko and can raid slum vote yote! It will be hard for Ruto to move her. She doesn't want the senate, either!
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Yes - she knows how to work the church and slum - low class who are reliable voters - it tough cookie for both camps. Maybe both coalition will present 2 candidates - and we see who wins.
It is a hard nut to crack. Kikuyu hustlers are very many in Nairobi to be ignored, so without shiro a large swath may gravitate to Project Ngatia while voting DP at the same time. Shiro is cut from sonko and can win the same way Sonko did, though I agree Sakaja would be better to run the county! Tim, like Sakaja, is Bukusu/Luhya's darling. Intense negotiations and serious greasing will have to take place. Bishop Shiro is not your regular lady! She is more streets than Sonko and can raid slum vote yote! It will be hard for Ruto to move her. She doesn't want the senate, either!
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Yes - she knows how to work the church and slum - low class who are reliable voters - it tough cookie for both camps. Maybe both coalition will present 2 candidates - and we see who wins.
It is a hard nut to crack. Kikuyu hustlers are very many in Nairobi to be ignored, so without shiro a large swath may gravitate to Project Ngatia while voting DP at the same time. Shiro is cut from sonko and can win the same way Sonko did, though I agree Sakaja would be better to run the county! Tim, like Sakaja, is Bukusu/Luhya's darling. Intense negotiations and serious greasing will have to take place. Bishop Shiro is not your regular lady! She is more streets than Sonko and can raid slum vote yote! It will be hard for Ruto to move her. She doesn't want the senate, either!
Nairobi demographics is hard to get, but it seems Nairobi voters are in slums for the most part. Somalis, Indians, and Kenyan immigrants voters are almost 500K based on religious data but it seems they don't come out to vote. I know the view well off middle class also have very lower voter turnout. I think the team that picks street candidate like Sonko to comb the slums will win. Uptight blazor-wearing boardroom guy like Ngatia may see the dust!
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Yes - slums dweller vote especially in party primaries - but middle class do vote in general election - and by then they vote for parties - I have voted twice in Nairobi now. General election is okay because of security and because it's an holiday anyway - nomination is chaotic.
So basically whoever get UDA ticket will get most votes in general election. If Wanjiru nail UDA - she is going to be competitive.
Followed by ODM - or Azimio if they will be combined.
Nairobi demographics is hard to get, but it seems Nairobi voters are in slums for the most part. Somalis, Indians, and Kenyan immigrants voters are almost 500K based on religious data but it seems they don't come out to vote. I know the view well off middle class also have very lower voter turnout. I think the team that picks street candidate like Sonko to comb the slums will win. Uptight blazor-wearing boardroom guy like Ngatia may see the dust!
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Ngatia is the next governor of Nairobi,80,000 Kalenjins in langata cannot make Sakaja governor.
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Ngatia is the next governor of Nairobi,80,000 Kalenjins in langata cannot make Sakaja governor.
Wrong 137K. Kenya Kwanza comprise the Kales, Gema, Somalis, and Luhyas and the rest. Sakaja in the absence of ODM's Wanyonyi will get all Mulembe votes and about 50% GEMA.
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Kenya Kwanza is Nandi party
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On such an issue where the candidates refuse to agree, just do a joint nomination as Kenya Kwanza and let the best (wo)man win. Wash his hands off it. If the loser refuses and still runs, spoiler effect is less because of poorer numbers. Or have them commit that the runner up deputises the winner.
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Wanjiru seems broke. She is nowhere to be seen. After Waititu and Sonko blundering, even the slums are ready for another Kidero in Sakaja.
I will never forgive Sonko and Waititu. Naive mafakas!
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Wanjiru and her son won while they were in ODM,ever since,it's been bad for them,the son went into drinking, Bishop re-sorted to con her followers to build a tower.In jubilee primaries,they even took her to jail.
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Yes the narrative is against another Sonko - that is why Sakaja is leading. Only thing is how to unload her without causing lots of trouble for UDA. Ruto is fearing another Ngirici talking bad in Mt kenya
I think Sakaja has registered as UDA? Maybe they will go for join primaries?
Wanjiru seems broke. She is nowhere to be seen. After Waititu and Sonko blundering, even the slums are ready for another Kidero in Sakaja.
I will never forgive Sonko and Waititu. Naive mafakas!
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Sakaja will be very rich...Nairobi governor I think steals 10-20MN a day.If he gives ruto 10MN,Madvd 5MN and he pockets 5MN a day.That males him filthy rich.
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Believe me he will not give Ruto 50%. I think 25% and rest 25% he will con him. That is how it works and also Ruto will know he is being conned. That is how the game plays, eat and let eat.
Sakaja will be very rich...Nairobi governor I think steals 10-20MN a day.If he gives ruto 10MN,Madvd 5MN and he pockets 5MN a day.That males him filthy rich.
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Believe me he will not give Ruto 50%. I think 25% and rest 25% he will con him. That is how it works and also Ruto will know he is being conned. That is how the game plays, eat and let eat.
Sakaja will be very rich...Nairobi governor I think steals 10-20MN a day.If he gives ruto 10MN,Madvd 5MN and he pockets 5MN a day.That males him filthy rich.
That would put sakaja in bad books with DCI EACC,MCAs and senate and you very well know what Mumbi Ngugi ruling says.
Sakaja being the wise thief I know must butter his masters cake.
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Sakaja says he is in UDA.. Wanjiru ataona moto
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Poor Wanjiru,used and dumped,Sakaja vs Ngatia.No brainer😅all politics is local.Bishopo would have given Ngatia some stiff competition.Ngatia is as good as governor elect.
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Nobody feel that guy.. don't bet on Kikuyus electing him..they voted sonko and gave Peter Kenneth zero..Peter Kenneth is better known leader..sasa Ngatia.Hii Pkosgei amechukua.He has supported Kikuyus in kibaki then uhuru.
Poor Wanjiru is dead on arrival coz of sonko .. dunderhead cannot replace another.. people want change.ODM still have TIm running.. fallout with luhya nation Noma especially because kaloki is now ngatia deputy..head of day luhya vote Kenya kwanza.. Raila look to lose Nairobi because when luhya Luo alliance in Nairobi is broken it's over.Hapa Nairobi ndio utajua mji sasa because Ruto strategy for Nairobi is starting to pay dividends na bado tunachukua Nairobi national park na kuchaza wakale...ngoja Tu mchina akuje ajenge nyumba kalenjin tununue
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Pajero - halafu naona Ngatia alitoa hema zake from Raila campaign. Kuliendaje. Look like Ida really want Tim to run but Raila will grumble when Uhuru tell ODM to back off from Nairobi. Kushikwa makende.
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Chill boss,Nairobi politics is above your pay grade
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There is nothing special about Nairobi.
Sakaja is the senator of Nairobi and is highly regarded by Nairobeans.
The tribal maths of Nairobi is well known.
GEMA at 30 percent; Luhya, Luo and Kambas each at 15 percent;
Somalis, Gusii, Kalenjin at 5 percent each.
The rest of the tribes and races are 10 percent.
Nairobi has essentially been kavirondo (alliance of luo, luhya,gusii) versus GEMA fight for a long time.
Primaries are where slums dwellers votes - General election people vote parties.
Now do the maths - UDA will get most GEMA (looking like increasingly 85-90 percent)
Luhyas are 50-50 - and if Tim is dropped by Raila as is likely - The remaining Luhyas of Nairobi in ODM will revolt.
Ruto already has the likes of Nelson Havi taking over Luhya bastion of Kangemi, Gusii have Omwenga going for women rep, Kibera luhyas have their former football star, etc etc. Only Aladwa is out there working with Ngatia for the money
In short Ruto is working to splinter the Kavirondo alliance - and retain GEMA coalition- game short.
If he succeed like he has succesfully taken over GEMA - then Ruto will win Nairobi, Sakaka Pkosgei the Governor, Wanjiru will take senate or she goes to Azimio, Omanga the women rep - and majority of MPs will be UDA.
Endeleni kuota tu. Give Ngatia that seat today and you'll cry real tears of Nairobi river :)
Kavirondo alliance Plus Kamba that has given Raila a win in Nairobi recently is unravelling as we speak
Chill boss,Nairobi politics is above your pay grade
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So A kikuyu will take the ballot paper, tick Sakaja and leave out Ngatia because he loves Ruto,you must be high on weed.
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Ask kambas what they did to Kidero
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Kwani Sonko was a Kikuyu?
Ngatia nobody knows where he emerged from - dont think Nairobi kikuyus will just vote any kikuyu
Sakaja has been in Nairobi politics for 10yrs - as nominated Mp, now Senator and has been TNA chairman.
This is a battle tested politician - versus power broker who think he can use stolen MAFYIA house money to buy governorship seat.
The battle is on 14th - Wanjiru has upper hand because slum dwellers will vote on party nominations - so if she loses to Milimani born uptown kid Sakaja - who just joined UDA - yeye kwisha. Ruto will give her Senate seat to cry over.
Come general election - people will simply vote UDA head to toe.
Azimio crew - will vote Azimio.
Luhyas if they go with GEMA to UDA - HAPO NYINYI KWISHA :) :) KABISA - It will be Luo with unhappy Kamba alliance :) MACHOZI
Anyway first figure out a deal to make Tim Wetangula happy - because he is most favourite for most Nairobians - Sakaja is next
Nairobi luhyas love Tim. They will see it as big betrayal if Azimio pick someone else.
So A kikuyu will take the ballot paper, tick Sakaja and leave out Ngatia because he loves Ruto,you must be high on weed.
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Nairobi is proving to be a tricky one for Baba. Uhuru is insisting on giving the ticket to Ngatia.
Ngatia is backed by a statehouse cabal and mafia who are angling for things they didn’t do during Sonko’s time. Chief amongst main players are the likes of Alfie Gitonga... not to forget they have been plundering Nairobi under the Gen. Badi NMS arrangement. We are telling Baba that shortchanging Tim will have serious repercussions; the Luhyas will have a huge issue with that, not forgetting Kenya Kwisha and especially Weta will milk this to the maximum. The fall-out and disenfranchisement could go all the way to Bungoma.
Ngatia is promising huge campaign funds and that he will fund his Gubernatorial run and unfortunately Baba is inclined to this. Very unfortunate state of affairs. Don’t forget Ngatia is a closet Ruto man... his recent amplification of Jubilee membership is just a ruse. We are saying that ODM can win Nairobi with or without Jubilee and Baba shouldn’t be arm-twisted to let go Nairobi at the risk of so much more than just a few pennies.
Ngatia has been combing the Nairobi vijijis door-to-door and wants to project himself that he has the grassroots. But worst case we are saying, let Ngatia be Tim’s running mate, after all he is the newbie in politics. Tim is certainly his senior and this is ODM’s turn for the Governorship after Jubilee messed with its chance with Sonko.
Given a choice, I would never choose Ngatia for anything to do with running public resources. He is just a Sonko but smarter and better dressed. A Kidero type thief but less educated.
I just wish Baba wasn’t so conflicted because of the promise that Jubilee could bring additional votes. What we know for sure is that Uhuru has been unable to convert his Kikuyu hoi polloi folk, including in Nairobi to the Azimio journey, so we cannot shank our assured seats for some Jubilee magic which isn’t converting.
Ni hayo tu... mimi sitaki Ngatia Nairobi...
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Nairobi is proving to be a tricky one for Baba. Uhuru is insisting on giving the ticket to Ngatia.
Ngatia is backed by a statehouse cabal and mafia who are angling for things they didn’t do during Sonko’s time. Chief amongst main players are the likes of Alfie Gitonga... not to forget they have been plundering Nairobi under the Gen. Badi NMS arrangement. We are telling Baba that shortchanging Tim will have serious repercussions; the Luhyas will have a huge issue with that, not forgetting Kenya Kwisha and especially Weta will milk this to the maximum. The fall-out and disenfranchisement could go all the way to Bungoma.
Ngatia is promising huge campaign funds and that he will fund his Gubernatorial run and unfortunately Baba is inclined to this. Very unfortunate state of affairs. Don’t forget Ngatia is a closet Ruto man... his recent amplification of Jubilee membership is just a ruse. We are saying that ODM can win Nairobi with or without Jubilee and Baba shouldn’t be arm-twisted to let go Nairobi at the risk of so much more than just a few pennies.
Ngatia has been combing the Nairobi vijijis door-to-door and wants to project himself that he has the grassroots. But worst case we are saying, let Ngatia be Tim’s running mate, after all he is the newbie in politics. Tim is certainly his senior and this is ODM’s turn for the Governorship after Jubilee messed with its chance with Sonko.
Given a choice, I would never choose Ngatia for anything to do with running public resources. He is just a Sonko but smarter and better dressed. A Kidero type thief but less educated.
I just wish Baba wasn’t so conflicted because of the promise that Jubilee could bring additional votes. What we know for sure is that Uhuru has been unable to convert his Kikuyu hoi polloi folk, including in Nairobi to the Azimio journey, so we cannot shank our assured seats for some Jubilee magic which isn’t converting.
Ni hayo tu... mimi sitaki Ngatia Nairobi...
Exactly.If uda present Wanjiru we will vote Tim.But ngatia huyu ni broker without any leadership skills.Sonko had better credentials as mp and senator..sonko was never allowed to deliver by uhuru..after he kicked their guy the igathe guy
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How can you tell the outcome before the nominations? Kamandas, Sifunas will be ordered to step down easy by Uhuru & Raila - unlike Wanjiru
Assume these lineups -
UDA/KK - Sakaja gov
Jubilee/Azimio - Ngatia gov, Tim senate
IND - Bishop Wanjiru gov
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:o 8) dreams are valid
There is nothing special about Nairobi.
Sakaja is the senator of Nairobi and is highly regarded by Nairobeans.
The tribal maths of Nairobi is well known.
GEMA at 30 percent; Luhya, Luo and Kambas each at 15 percent;
Somalis, Gusii, Kalenjin at 5 percent each.
The rest of the tribes and races are 10 percent.
Nairobi has essentially been kavirondo (alliance of luo, luhya,gusii) versus GEMA fight for a long time.
Primaries are where slums dwellers votes - General election people vote parties.
Now do the maths - UDA will get most GEMA (looking like increasingly 85-90 percent)
Luhyas are 50-50 - and if Tim is dropped by Raila as is likely - The remaining Luhyas of Nairobi in ODM will revolt.
Ruto already has the likes of Nelson Havi taking over Luhya bastion of Kangemi, Gusii have Omwenga going for women rep, Kibera luhyas have their former football star, etc etc. Only Aladwa is out there working with Ngatia for the money
In short Ruto is working to splinter the Kavirondo alliance - and retain GEMA coalition- game short.
If he succeed like he has succesfully taken over GEMA - then Ruto will win Nairobi, Sakaka Pkosgei the Governor, Wanjiru will take senate or she goes to Azimio, Omanga the women rep - and majority of MPs will be UDA.
Endeleni kuota tu. Give Ngatia that seat today and you'll cry real tears of Nairobi river :)
Kavirondo alliance Plus Kamba that has given Raila a win in Nairobi recently is unravelling as we speak
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Ngatia will be defeated by anybody. Take that to nearest bank. Siasa is emotional game. You dont just come from a hole - where you been stealing gov money - and suddenly want to be a governor. You have zero political experience. Hata MCA moja hakujui.
Ngatia ni pesa ya KEMSA and Health ministry imeconfuse tu. He will buy Azimio ticket because he has been helping Kenyattas steal money from ministry of health and Raila is Uhuru puppet...but hapo ndio the far he can go.
If Azimio back Ngatia - Sakaja is your governor bila kupingwa.
But TIM - now that is someone. That is someone known to Nairobeans. Someone known for leadership.
Wanjiru again is getting killed by Sonko - people this time round want to try someone intellectual.
A good race will be btw Sakaja and Tim - hapo ni 50-50 with advantage to Tim.
How can you tell the outcome before the nominations? Kamandas, Sifunas will be ordered to step down easy by Uhuru & Raila - unlike Wanjiru
Assume these lineups -
UDA/KK - Sakaja gov
Jubilee/Azimio - Ngatia gov, Tim senate
IND - Bishop Wanjiru gov
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I dont throw numbers careless. Most GEMAns were undecided as they waited for Uhuru to unleash the dossier. They waited and waited. Sagana powerpoint of roads. Hakuna kitu pale - and from Sagana three - I have seen Ruto numbers tighten - defections intesified - Azimio crew basically given up (last time they went in central is 100 days ago :) - the Jubilee and related Azimio candidates are running away from Raila. Hakuna picha ata moja ya Raila huko central :).
In short if Ruto was 70 percent in January - he is certainly at 85 percent now in GEMA.
And unless Uhuru does something urgent - this one is trending towards 90 percent. Ndio hiyo Kalonzo has gone with DPORK :). No comeback. Ruto will unleash Gachagua or Ndidi Nyoro - game short - 90 percent.
:o 8) dreams are valid
fo
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That the same lies and half-truths you peddled for years about Uhuruto fallout. Jubilee and mbus are live and well in Mt Kenya. The Red Brigade actually has UDA scared. But am sure you missed those headlines.
Ruto after 4 years is intimately known by everyone, their mother and their goat. Picking Nyoro or Gachagua makes no difference. There is im fact diminishing returns.
At 75% pipedream - he could pick Mdvd and gameshot. But the reality is different: Ruto is waiting to checkmate Raila - PK vs Nyoro - Gachagua vs Karua - Munya vs Kindiki. That how deperate he is for clean sweep. But of course it is impossible.
I dont throw numbers careless. Most GEMAns were undecided as they waited for Uhuru to unleash the dossier. They waited and waited. Sagana powerpoint of roads. Hakuna kitu pale - and from Sagana three - I have seen Ruto numbers tighten - defections intesified - Azimio crew basically given up (last time they went in central is 100 days ago :) - the Jubilee and related Azimio candidates are running away from Raila. Hakuna picha ata moja ya Raila huko central :).
In short if Ruto was 70 percent in January - he is certainly at 85 percent now in GEMA.
And unless Uhuru does something urgent - this one is trending towards 90 percent. Ndio hiyo Kalonzo has gone with DPORK :). No comeback. Ruto will unleash Gachagua or Ndidi Nyoro - game short - 90 percent.
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Shida hiyo 75 or any random number you throw is from air.. please respect some of us who have done number crunching for years on Kenya siasa.Leading indicator Ruto is on the upside in Mt Kenya and Raila has given up there and is looking to ukambani.The mountain too steep.. Picking dpork there will have little effect
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Usual fantasies - inventing new facts & maxims conveniently. Kidero was new and won - it wouldn't start with Ngatia.
Wanjiru has no traction cause ati Sonko messed - just because she has threatened walkout.
And why are people feeling Sakaja? - what sterling record does he have - acturial degree?
What I see - in Azimio Uhuru & Kalonzo have upper hand over ODM. Tim will easily get senate and tosha Ngatia. Luhya will split just like in western where half are Azimio.
But you need to account for Ngatia tribe factor because Sakaja is not Sonko and Ruto is not Uhuru. In fact Sakaja vs Ngatia is just two Kidero types. Also note Raila beats Ruto in Nairobi polls despite earthquake - please snap out of that sweet Gema and Luhya dream.
Be more real
-Ngatia gets Luo + Kamba + half Luhya + half Gema + Gusii (45%)
-Sakaja gets half Gema + half Luhya (30%?)
Ngatia will be defeated by anybody. Take that to nearest bank. Siasa is emotional game. You dont just come from a hole - where you been stealing gov money - and suddenly want to be a governor. You have zero political experience. Hata MCA moja hakujui.
Ngatia ni pesa ya KEMSA and Health ministry imeconfuse tu. He will buy Azimio ticket because he has been helping Kenyattas steal money from ministry of health and Raila is Uhuru puppet...but hapo ndio the far he can go.
If Azimio back Ngatia - Sakaja is your governor bila kupingwa.
But TIM - now that is someone. That is someone known to Nairobeans. Someone known for leadership.
Wanjiru again is getting killed by Sonko - people this time round want to try someone intellectual.
A good race will be btw Sakaja and Tim - hapo ni 50-50 with advantage to Tim.
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Kidero n many first term governors sneaked in because seasoned political players thought it was old mayor position..only Isaac Ruto realized late that it was serious position.Kidero fluked through and so did many governors as people thought it was managerial job..only for poor senators to realize it was real executive..president of county.Ngatia nobody feels him.Azimio shida kibao because Sonko want to try Wiper.UDA will finish mambo next week.. Wanjiru might play spoiler.Sakaja is not only the reigning senator elected by majority of Nairobi he also proved himself in senate...his win win formulae on county sharing got him lots of bonga points.Ngatia is an idiot who can only be voted by stupid Luos .. about half..the rest of Nairobi will refuse such a impostor thief.Remember we had same debate in 2017 told you sonko was unbeatable because he was being felt by many...you cried sijui Peter Kenneth rigged ojingaism..he run as independent..zero effect..scored zero amongst Kikuyus.Nairobi hapana mchezo..start with slums then rise pole pole.Will Tim agree to be senator knowing his loyalty to odm despite Weta and knowing he is very popular
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Kidero won and so can Ngatia. There is nothing in Sakaja to excite folks - no track record, no slum appeal, no cash, nothing. The fox undermined Sonko chini ya maji - to eliminate the threat way back - they have unsettled beef. He gets Gema only cause Ruto. Slum hakuna - Mdvd gentleman nonsense and kizungu mingi - suit vs suit.
Ruto hold on Gema is not a choke - akin to Uhuru 2017 or Raila Luo. It why he is propping a nobody like Ndindi. Luhya-Kalenjin Sakaja will only get half against Kikuyu mafia Ngatia. Wanjiru would be better but Ruto can't dump Sakaja without serious trouble all the way in western.
No Wanjiru won't spoil - if she goes rogue it will be with few votes - she needs Ruto. But she was a safer bet than Sakaja. Sonko let's hear fom his mouth first.
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You think you can just pick random Kikuyu and Kikuyus will elect him..kicheko biggest like this ngatia guy..where was he when Kikuyus are evicted or hawkers killed..where has he been.Sakaja has been in trenches with Kikuyus like Ruto..even longer. Wanjiru is real .. ngatia bure.Let me help you..if it was fair contest..Tim wins..followed by Sakaja..followed by Wanjiru..followed by Sonko..followed last by Ngatia.Please spend even few times in social media if you're clueless about siasa.What a moron.Not even Luos of siaya will accept projects..sembuze Nairobi
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I guess Ngatia & Uhuru must be really stupid - just running for the sake. Anyway I expect Ngatia vs Sakaja. There is a time you were singing Eugene here - dreaming Ruto would take western from Raila. Before Sonko showed up.
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I guess Ngatia & Uhuru must be really stupid - just running for the sake. Anyway I expect Ngatia vs Sakaja. There is a time you were singing Eugene here - dreaming Ruto would take western from Raila. Before Sonko showed up.
Strawman arguments.Ngatia ni pesa inasumbua.Kura haoni.Just half Luos who will vote for Baba...I have voted in Nairobi twice now and lived in Nairobi for 20yrs..I know it's. Politics.Azimio if they present Tim hapo Sakaja nyumbani otherwise Sakaja is 2nd best.. and because Uhuru will force his friend and looter ngatia.. kuzimia Sana ..worse if become tribal as luhyas see it as betrayal
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This vindicate my thinking on Nairobi
If ODM sacrifices Tim - Sakaja wins.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FP0PTNVWUAQxRTD?format=jpg&name=large)
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@RvP & Robina.... let me help your conversation.
Tim ain't backing off for any Senate position, he will go all the way to the Debe. Jubilee will have to let Ngatia go and if they insist, tutaenda kwa debe wananchi wachague. ODM does not lose anything... In a 3-way the Kikuyu (2017 Jubilee) vote will be split Ngatia / Sakaja and Tim has it, Ngatia comes last... Worst case, Tim gets some of that Jubilee 2017 vote basket...
Meantime Baba gets the lionshare Presidential vote.
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Raila is Uhuru(Ngatia biatch). If Tim is serious he should run as independent. He has lots of goodwill. I was going to vote him if UDA gave us Wanjiru. But with Sakaja I think it's fair contest...with slight edge to Tim.
Once Luo-Luhya kavirondo alliance has been broken - it's about half broken now - Raila cannot win Nairobi - Ruto is going to win Nairobi by getting 80 percent of GEMA, 50 percent of Luhya - that is already 37 percent - then kalenjin tufikishe 42 percent - halafu rest of tribes to add to 50 percent.
Raila start with solid 100% of Luo (15 percent) ; Kambas are itch itch (maybe 70%) of 15% - that just take him to 25: Then half luhyas; few kikuyus and he is behind Ruto.
How ODM treat Tim will determine how Luhyas of Nairobi will vote.
@RvP & Robina.... let me help your conversation.
Tim ain't backing off for any Senate position, he will go all the way to the Debe. Jubilee will have to let Ngatia go and if they insist, tutaenda kwa debe wananchi wachague. ODM does not lose anything... In a 3-way the Kikuyu (2017 Jubilee) vote will be split Ngatia / Sakaja and Tim has it, Ngatia comes last... Worst case, Tim gets some of that Jubilee 2017 vote basket...
Meantime Baba gets the lionshare Presidential vote.
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Look like Nairobi Kenya kwanza deal is on..Sakaja for governor.. Wanjiru senator