Nairobi governorship - how will they resolve this

[RV Pundit]

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Kenya Kwanza - Sakaja is popular on the ground but Wanjiru is hard-nosed & will refuse to deal. Will Ruto risky Kikuyu vote - though Kikuyus dont feel that mama - they feel Sakaja more. Wanjiru may be prevailed to go for senate but she will refuse & go rogue. I think Ruto promised Sakaja governorship for delivering maDVD and he will stick to the deal. DPORK will go to Kikuyus - so Nairobi isnt critical.

Azimio - Ngatia has Uhuru in his pocket and has given Kalonzo man deputy governor. The people want Tim Weta brother and ODM adamant for now - they will fill him. Luhyas like Aladwa already bought by Ngatia

The way I see this.
1) Uhuru will force Raila to back Ngatia & Kalonzo man - Prof Kaloki.  ODM will be given senator - Tim/Edwin - can fight it out - Poor Kamanda will see fire.

2) Ruto will eventually force Wanjiru to back Sakaja.

We will have Sakaja versus Ngatia - with Sakaja winning with a landslide. Ngatia is just coming off as project not connected to the people - and I dont see how ODM will survive Luhya backlash if they dont back Tim.

Ngatia can get Luo & Kamba automatons - that is 30 percent - and he will struggle for 20 percent to get 50 percent.
Sakaja likely to get GEMA (UDA+KK) of 30 percent and Luhyas of 15 percent - starting off with 45 percent- only needing 5 percent

Spoilers Tim and Wanjirus -

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

It is a hard nut to crack. Kikuyu hustlers are very many in Nairobi to be ignored, so without shiro a large swath may gravitate to Project Ngatia while voting DP at the same time. Shiro is cut from sonko and can win the same way Sonko did, though I agree Sakaja would be better to run the county! Tim, like Sakaja, is Bukusu/Luhya's darling. Intense negotiations and serious greasing will have to take place. Bishop Shiro is not your regular lady! She is more streets than Sonko and can raid slum vote yote! It will be hard for Ruto to move her. She doesn't want the senate, either!

[RV Pundit]

Yes - she knows how to work the church and slum - low class who are reliable voters - it tough cookie for both camps. Maybe both coalition will present 2 candidates - and we see who wins.

It is a hard nut to crack. Kikuyu hustlers are very many in Nairobi to be ignored, so without shiro a large swath may gravitate to Project Ngatia while voting DP at the same time. Shiro is cut from sonko and can win the same way Sonko did, though I agree Sakaja would be better to run the county! Tim, like Sakaja, is Bukusu/Luhya's darling. Intense negotiations and serious greasing will have to take place. Bishop Shiro is not your regular lady! She is more streets than Sonko and can raid slum vote yote! It will be hard for Ruto to move her. She doesn't want the senate, either!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Yes - she knows how to work the church and slum - low class who are reliable voters - it tough cookie for both camps. Maybe both coalition will present 2 candidates - and we see who wins.

It is a hard nut to crack. Kikuyu hustlers are very many in Nairobi to be ignored, so without shiro a large swath may gravitate to Project Ngatia while voting DP at the same time. Shiro is cut from sonko and can win the same way Sonko did, though I agree Sakaja would be better to run the county! Tim, like Sakaja, is Bukusu/Luhya's darling. Intense negotiations and serious greasing will have to take place. Bishop Shiro is not your regular lady! She is more streets than Sonko and can raid slum vote yote! It will be hard for Ruto to move her. She doesn't want the senate, either!

Nairobi demographics is hard to get, but it seems Nairobi voters are in slums for the most part. Somalis, Indians, and Kenyan immigrants voters are almost 500K based on religious data but it seems they don't come out to vote. I know the view well off middle class also have very lower voter turnout. I think the team that picks street candidate like Sonko to comb the slums will win. Uptight blazor-wearing boardroom guy like Ngatia may see the dust!

[RV Pundit]

Yes - slums dweller vote especially in party primaries - but middle class do vote in general election - and by then they vote for parties - I have voted twice in Nairobi now. General election is okay because of security and because it's an holiday anyway - nomination is chaotic.

So basically whoever get UDA ticket will get most votes in general election. If Wanjiru nail UDA - she is going to be competitive.

Followed by ODM - or Azimio if they will be combined.

Nairobi demographics is hard to get, but it seems Nairobi voters are in slums for the most part. Somalis, Indians, and Kenyan immigrants voters are almost 500K based on religious data but it seems they don't come out to vote. I know the view well off middle class also have very lower voter turnout. I think the team that picks street candidate like Sonko to comb the slums will win. Uptight blazor-wearing boardroom guy like Ngatia may see the dust!

[Pajero]

Ngatia is the next governor of Nairobi,80,000 Kalenjins in langata cannot make Sakaja governor.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ngatia is the next governor of Nairobi,80,000 Kalenjins in langata cannot make Sakaja governor.

Wrong 137K. Kenya Kwanza comprise the Kales, Gema, Somalis, and Luhyas and the rest. Sakaja in the absence of ODM's Wanyonyi will get all Mulembe votes and about 50% GEMA.

[Pajero]

Kenya Kwanza is Nandi party

[Sivel]

On such an issue where the candidates refuse to agree, just do a joint nomination as Kenya Kwanza and let the best (wo)man win. Wash his hands off it. If the loser refuses and still runs, spoiler effect is less because of poorer numbers. Or have them commit that the runner up deputises the winner.

[gout]

Wanjiru seems broke. She is nowhere to be seen. After Waititu and Sonko blundering, even the slums are ready for another Kidero in Sakaja.

I will never forgive Sonko and Waititu. Naive mafakas!

[audacityofhope]

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[Pajero]

Wanjiru and her son won while they were in ODM,ever since,it's been bad for them,the son went into drinking, Bishop re-sorted to con her followers to build  a tower.In jubilee primaries,they even took her to jail.

[RV Pundit]

Yes the narrative is against another Sonko - that is why Sakaja is leading. Only thing is how to unload her without causing lots of trouble for UDA. Ruto is fearing another Ngirici talking bad in Mt kenya

I think Sakaja has registered as UDA? Maybe they will go for join primaries?

Wanjiru seems broke. She is nowhere to be seen. After Waititu and Sonko blundering, even the slums are ready for another Kidero in Sakaja.

I will never forgive Sonko and Waititu. Naive mafakas!

[Githunguri]

Sakaja will be very rich...Nairobi governor I think steals 10-20MN a day.If he gives ruto 10MN,Madvd 5MN and he pockets 5MN a day.That males him filthy rich.

[Kadudu]

Believe me he will not give Ruto 50%. I think 25% and rest 25% he will con him. That is how it works and also Ruto will know he is being conned. That is how the game plays, eat and let eat.

Sakaja will be very rich...Nairobi governor I think steals 10-20MN a day.If he gives ruto 10MN,Madvd 5MN and he pockets 5MN a day.That males him filthy rich.

[Githunguri]

Believe me he will not give Ruto 50%. I think 25% and rest 25% he will con him. That is how it works and also Ruto will know he is being conned. That is how the game plays, eat and let eat.

Sakaja will be very rich...Nairobi governor I think steals 10-20MN a day.If he gives ruto 10MN,Madvd 5MN and he pockets 5MN a day.That males him filthy rich.

That would put sakaja in bad books with DCI EACC,MCAs and senate and you very well know what Mumbi Ngugi ruling says.

Sakaja being the wise thief I know must butter his masters cake.

[RV Pundit]

Sakaja says he is in UDA.. Wanjiru ataona moto

[Pajero]

Poor Wanjiru,used and dumped,Sakaja vs Ngatia.No brainer😅all politics is local.Bishopo would have given Ngatia some stiff competition.Ngatia is as good as governor elect.

[RV Pundit]

Nobody feel that guy.. don't bet on Kikuyus electing him..they voted sonko and gave Peter Kenneth zero..Peter Kenneth is better known leader..sasa Ngatia.Hii Pkosgei amechukua.He has supported Kikuyus in kibaki then uhuru.
Poor Wanjiru is dead on arrival coz of sonko .. dunderhead cannot replace another.. people want change.ODM still have TIm running.. fallout with luhya nation Noma especially because kaloki is now ngatia deputy..head of day luhya vote Kenya kwanza.. Raila look to lose Nairobi because when luhya Luo alliance in Nairobi is broken it's over.Hapa Nairobi ndio utajua mji sasa because Ruto strategy for Nairobi is starting to pay dividends na bado tunachukua Nairobi national park na kuchaza wakale...ngoja Tu mchina akuje ajenge nyumba kalenjin tununue

[RV Pundit]

Pajero - halafu naona Ngatia alitoa hema zake from Raila campaign. Kuliendaje. Look like Ida really want Tim to run but Raila will grumble when Uhuru tell ODM to back off from Nairobi. Kushikwa makende.