Nairobi governorship - how will they resolve this

[Pajero]

Chill boss,Nairobi politics is above your pay grade

[RV Pundit]

There is nothing special about Nairobi.
Sakaja is the senator of Nairobi and is highly regarded by Nairobeans.
The tribal maths of Nairobi is well known.
GEMA at 30 percent; Luhya, Luo and Kambas each at 15 percent;
Somalis, Gusii, Kalenjin at 5 percent each.
The rest of the tribes and races are 10 percent.
Nairobi has essentially been kavirondo (alliance of luo, luhya,gusii) versus GEMA fight for a long time.
Primaries are where slums dwellers votes - General election people vote parties.
Now do the maths - UDA will get most GEMA (looking like increasingly 85-90 percent)
Luhyas are 50-50 - and if Tim is dropped by Raila as is likely - The remaining Luhyas of Nairobi in ODM will revolt.
Ruto already has the likes of Nelson Havi taking over Luhya bastion of Kangemi, Gusii have Omwenga going for women rep, Kibera luhyas have their former football star, etc etc. Only Aladwa is out there working with Ngatia for the money
In short Ruto is working to splinter the Kavirondo alliance - and retain GEMA coalition- game short.
If he succeed like he has succesfully taken over GEMA - then Ruto will win Nairobi, Sakaka Pkosgei the Governor, Wanjiru will take senate or she goes to Azimio, Omanga the women rep - and majority of MPs will be UDA.

Endeleni kuota tu. Give Ngatia that seat today and you'll cry real tears of Nairobi river

Kavirondo alliance Plus Kamba that has given Raila a win in Nairobi recently is unravelling as we speak
 

Chill boss,Nairobi politics is above your pay grade

[Pajero]

So A kikuyu will take  the ballot paper, tick Sakaja and leave out Ngatia because he loves Ruto,you must be high on weed.

[Pajero]

Ask kambas what they did to Kidero

[RV Pundit]

Kwani Sonko was a Kikuyu?
Ngatia nobody knows where he emerged from - dont think Nairobi kikuyus will just vote any kikuyu
Sakaja has been in Nairobi politics for 10yrs - as nominated Mp, now Senator and has been TNA chairman.
This is a battle tested politician - versus power broker who think he can use stolen MAFYIA house money to buy governorship seat.
The battle is on 14th - Wanjiru has upper hand because slum dwellers will vote on party nominations - so if she loses to Milimani born uptown kid Sakaja - who just joined UDA - yeye kwisha. Ruto will give her Senate seat to cry over.
Come general election - people will simply vote UDA head to toe.
Azimio crew - will vote Azimio.
Luhyas if they go with GEMA to UDA - HAPO NYINYI KWISHA KABISA - It will be Luo with unhappy Kamba alliance MACHOZI

Anyway first figure out a deal to make Tim Wetangula happy - because he is most favourite for most Nairobians - Sakaja is next
Nairobi luhyas love Tim. They will see it as big betrayal if Azimio pick someone else.

So A kikuyu will take  the ballot paper, tick Sakaja and leave out Ngatia because he loves Ruto,you must be high on weed.

[RV Pundit]

The leaders of Nairobi County led by Speaker Benson Mutura have officially declared that the Hustler Nation is their home and that Kenya Kwanza is the way to a better country. Uchumi Kwanza. pic.twitter.com/NYqB64QvRQ

— William Samoei Ruto, PhD (@WilliamsRuto) April 7, 2022

[Pragmatic]

[RV Pundit]

Exactly.If uda present Wanjiru we will vote Tim.But ngatia huyu ni broker without any leadership skills.Sonko had better credentials as mp and senator..sonko was never allowed to deliver by uhuru..after he kicked their guy the igathe guy

[Nefertiti]

How can you tell the outcome before the nominations? Kamandas, Sifunas will be ordered to step down easy by Uhuru & Raila - unlike Wanjiru

Assume these lineups -

UDA/KK - Sakaja gov
Jubilee/Azimio - Ngatia gov, Tim senate
IND - Bishop Wanjiru gov

[Nefertiti]

  dreams are valid

There is nothing special about Nairobi.
Sakaja is the senator of Nairobi and is highly regarded by Nairobeans.
The tribal maths of Nairobi is well known.
GEMA at 30 percent; Luhya, Luo and Kambas each at 15 percent;
Somalis, Gusii, Kalenjin at 5 percent each.
The rest of the tribes and races are 10 percent.
Nairobi has essentially been kavirondo (alliance of luo, luhya,gusii) versus GEMA fight for a long time.
Primaries are where slums dwellers votes - General election people vote parties.
Now do the maths - UDA will get most GEMA (looking like increasingly 85-90 percent)
Luhyas are 50-50 - and if Tim is dropped by Raila as is likely - The remaining Luhyas of Nairobi in ODM will revolt.
Ruto already has the likes of Nelson Havi taking over Luhya bastion of Kangemi, Gusii have Omwenga going for women rep, Kibera luhyas have their former football star, etc etc. Only Aladwa is out there working with Ngatia for the money
In short Ruto is working to splinter the Kavirondo alliance - and retain GEMA coalition- game short.
If he succeed like he has succesfully taken over GEMA - then Ruto will win Nairobi, Sakaka Pkosgei the Governor, Wanjiru will take senate or she goes to Azimio, Omanga the women rep - and majority of MPs will be UDA.

Endeleni kuota tu. Give Ngatia that seat today and you'll cry real tears of Nairobi river

Kavirondo alliance Plus Kamba that has given Raila a win in Nairobi recently is unravelling as we speak

[RV Pundit]

Ngatia will be defeated by anybody. Take that to nearest bank. Siasa is emotional game. You dont just come from a hole - where you been stealing gov money - and suddenly want to be a governor. You have zero political experience. Hata MCA moja hakujui.

Ngatia ni pesa ya KEMSA and Health ministry imeconfuse tu. He will buy Azimio ticket because he has been helping Kenyattas steal money from ministry of health and Raila is Uhuru puppet...but hapo ndio the far he can go.

If Azimio back Ngatia - Sakaja is your governor bila kupingwa.

But TIM - now that is someone. That is someone known to Nairobeans. Someone known for leadership.

Wanjiru again is getting killed by Sonko - people this time round want to try someone intellectual.

A good race will be btw Sakaja and Tim - hapo ni 50-50 with advantage to Tim.

How can you tell the outcome before the nominations? Kamandas, Sifunas will be ordered to step down easy by Uhuru & Raila - unlike Wanjiru

Assume these lineups -

UDA/KK - Sakaja gov
Jubilee/Azimio - Ngatia gov, Tim senate
IND - Bishop Wanjiru gov

[RV Pundit]

I dont throw numbers careless. Most GEMAns were undecided as they waited for Uhuru to unleash the dossier. They waited and waited. Sagana powerpoint of roads. Hakuna kitu pale - and from Sagana three - I have seen Ruto numbers tighten - defections intesified - Azimio crew basically given up (last time they went in central is 100 days ago   - the Jubilee and related Azimio candidates are running away from Raila. Hakuna picha ata moja ya Raila huko central .

In short if Ruto was 70 percent in January - he is certainly at 85 percent now in GEMA.

And unless Uhuru does something urgent - this one is trending towards 90 percent. Ndio hiyo Kalonzo has gone with DPORK . No comeback. Ruto will unleash Gachagua or Ndidi Nyoro - game short - 90 percent.

dreams are valid

fo

[Nefertiti]

That the same lies and half-truths you peddled for years about Uhuruto fallout. Jubilee and mbus are live and well in Mt Kenya. The Red Brigade actually has UDA scared. But am sure you missed those headlines.

Ruto after 4 years is intimately known by everyone, their mother and their goat. Picking Nyoro or Gachagua makes no difference. There is im fact diminishing returns.

At 75% pipedream - he could pick Mdvd and gameshot. But the reality is different: Ruto is waiting to checkmate Raila - PK vs Nyoro - Gachagua vs Karua - Munya vs Kindiki. That how deperate he is for clean sweep. But of course it is impossible.

I dont throw numbers careless. Most GEMAns were undecided as they waited for Uhuru to unleash the dossier. They waited and waited. Sagana powerpoint of roads. Hakuna kitu pale - and from Sagana three - I have seen Ruto numbers tighten - defections intesified - Azimio crew basically given up (last time they went in central is 100 days ago   - the Jubilee and related Azimio candidates are running away from Raila. Hakuna picha ata moja ya Raila huko central .

In short if Ruto was 70 percent in January - he is certainly at 85 percent now in GEMA.

And unless Uhuru does something urgent - this one is trending towards 90 percent. Ndio hiyo Kalonzo has gone with DPORK . No comeback. Ruto will unleash Gachagua or Ndidi Nyoro - game short - 90 percent.

[RV Pundit]

Shida hiyo 75 or any random number you throw is from air.. please respect some of us who have done number crunching for years on Kenya siasa.Leading indicator Ruto is on the upside in Mt Kenya and Raila has given up there and is looking to ukambani.The mountain too steep.. Picking dpork there will have little effect

[Nefertiti]

Usual fantasies - inventing new facts & maxims conveniently. Kidero was new and won - it wouldn't start with Ngatia.

Wanjiru has no traction cause ati Sonko messed - just because she has threatened walkout.

And why are people feeling Sakaja? - what sterling record does he have - acturial degree?

What I see - in Azimio Uhuru & Kalonzo have upper hand over ODM. Tim will easily get senate and tosha Ngatia. Luhya will split just like in western where half are Azimio.

But you need to account for Ngatia tribe factor because Sakaja is not Sonko and Ruto is not Uhuru. In fact Sakaja vs Ngatia is just two Kidero types. Also note Raila beats Ruto in Nairobi polls despite earthquake - please snap out of that sweet Gema and Luhya dream.

Be more real
-Ngatia gets Luo + Kamba + half Luhya + half Gema + Gusii (45%)
-Sakaja gets half Gema + half Luhya (30%?)

Ngatia will be defeated by anybody. Take that to nearest bank. Siasa is emotional game. You dont just come from a hole - where you been stealing gov money - and suddenly want to be a governor. You have zero political experience. Hata MCA moja hakujui.

Ngatia ni pesa ya KEMSA and Health ministry imeconfuse tu. He will buy Azimio ticket because he has been helping Kenyattas steal money from ministry of health and Raila is Uhuru puppet...but hapo ndio the far he can go.

If Azimio back Ngatia - Sakaja is your governor bila kupingwa.

But TIM - now that is someone. That is someone known to Nairobeans. Someone known for leadership.

Wanjiru again is getting killed by Sonko - people this time round want to try someone intellectual.

A good race will be btw Sakaja and Tim - hapo ni 50-50 with advantage to Tim.

[RV Pundit]

Kidero n many first term governors sneaked in because seasoned political players thought it was old mayor position..only Isaac Ruto realized late that it was serious position.Kidero fluked through and so did many governors as people thought it was managerial job..only for poor senators to realize it was real executive..president of county.Ngatia nobody feels him.Azimio shida kibao because Sonko want to try Wiper.UDA will finish mambo next week.. Wanjiru might play spoiler.Sakaja is not only the reigning senator elected by majority of Nairobi he also proved himself in senate...his win win formulae on county sharing got him lots of bonga points.Ngatia is an idiot who can only be voted by stupid Luos .. about half..the rest of Nairobi will refuse such a impostor thief.Remember we had same debate in 2017 told you sonko was unbeatable because he was being felt by many...you cried sijui Peter Kenneth rigged ojingaism..he run as independent..zero effect..scored zero amongst Kikuyus.Nairobi hapana mchezo..start with slums then rise pole pole.Will Tim agree to be senator knowing his loyalty to odm despite Weta and knowing he is very popular

[Nefertiti]

Kidero won and so can Ngatia. There is nothing in Sakaja to excite folks - no track record, no slum appeal, no cash, nothing. The fox undermined Sonko chini ya maji - to eliminate the threat way back - they have unsettled beef. He gets Gema only cause Ruto. Slum hakuna - Mdvd gentleman nonsense and kizungu mingi - suit vs suit.

Ruto hold on Gema is not a choke - akin to Uhuru 2017 or Raila Luo. It why he is propping a nobody like Ndindi. Luhya-Kalenjin Sakaja will only get half against Kikuyu mafia Ngatia. Wanjiru would be better but Ruto can't dump Sakaja without serious trouble all the way in western.

No Wanjiru won't spoil - if she goes rogue it will be with few votes - she needs Ruto. But she was a safer bet than Sakaja. Sonko let's hear fom his mouth first.

[RV Pundit]

You think you can just pick random Kikuyu and Kikuyus will elect him..kicheko biggest like this ngatia guy..where was he when Kikuyus are evicted or hawkers killed..where has he been.Sakaja has been in trenches with Kikuyus like Ruto..even longer. Wanjiru is real .. ngatia bure.Let me help you..if it was fair contest..Tim wins..followed by Sakaja..followed by Wanjiru..followed by Sonko..followed last by Ngatia.Please spend even few times in social media if you're clueless about siasa.What a moron.Not even Luos of siaya will accept projects..sembuze Nairobi

[Nefertiti]

I guess Ngatia & Uhuru must be really stupid - just running for the sake. Anyway I expect Ngatia vs Sakaja. There is a time you were singing Eugene here - dreaming Ruto would take western from Raila. Before Sonko showed up.

[RV Pundit]

I guess Ngatia & Uhuru must be really stupid - just running for the sake. Anyway I expect Ngatia vs Sakaja. There is a time you were singing Eugene here - dreaming Ruto would take western from Raila. Before Sonko showed up.

Strawman arguments.Ngatia ni pesa inasumbua.Kura haoni.Just half Luos who will vote for Baba...I have voted in Nairobi twice now and lived in Nairobi for 20yrs..I know it's. Politics.Azimio if they present Tim hapo Sakaja nyumbani otherwise Sakaja is 2nd best.. and because Uhuru will force his friend and looter ngatia.. kuzimia Sana ..worse if become tribal as luhyas see it as betrayal