Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on July 26, 2021, 09:18:03 AM
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Even this armchair analyst does not believe your Githeri Man stories. After 8 years on the mountain there should be babies called Ruto in Nyandarua - like Obama :) My dear RV Pundit don't overwork yourself: Yaani this man has spent every minute, breath and dollar there - but still competes with Munya and Dr Nyoro. I have been telling you to the Kikuyu Ruto is just another KALENJIN ALIEN. At least Raila was Arap Mibei - but instead here it is Mdvd being baptized Macharia.
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https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/ruto-s-kiambaa-victory-is-pyrrhic-3485202
The Kiambaa and Juja by-election results point to a similar conundrum for Mr Ruto. He will likely get all the Kalenjin vote and 40 per cent of the Kikuyu. Even this is optimistic.
Lathering the Kikuyu with money
My analysis – and crystal ball – tell me Mr Ruto’s Kiambaa and Juja victories were pyrrhic. No matter how hard he spins it, it was a debacle for him. If after nine years of lathering the Kikuyu with money and his undivided attention he only manages a 50-50 split, then he’s headed nowhere.
This is a meagre and unflattering outcome. He needs all of the Kikuyu vote to get a fighting chance against the Deep State, which he understands only too well. We know Mr Kenyatta will do everything to block him. To win, all the stars must align to make sure groups don’t vote as directed by their kingpins.
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Ribena , Please speak for the Kamba Nation. There is a way Mt Kenyans name their Children it culturally driven.
And yes there are many Williams and Bills in Mt Kenya. However you will never hear a Child names Raila . Never ever how about we look it that way
Even this armchair analyst does not believe your Githeri Man stories. After 8 years on the mountain there should be babies called Ruto in Nyandarua - like Obama :) My dear RV Pundit don't overwork yourself: Yaani this man has spent every minute, breath and dollar there - but still competes with Munya and Dr Nyoro. I have been telling you to the Kikuyu Ruto is just another KALENJIN ALIEN. At least Raila was Arap Mibei - but instead here it is Mdvd being baptized Macharia.
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2010 constitution - 50 percent plus one - make coalition a must - going forward. Only the few Mt Kenya nationalist who haven't internalized that will not understand that our politics have changed.RV and GEMA need to find arrangment like in Nakuru - a win-win - and that the majority of GEMA understand.
This one is going chain-chain - Ruto then Kikuyu PORK then who knows maybe my 6 month son will be ready :) to become pork in 2042. Then we hand over to Nowayaha grandson in 2052.
Dont bet on Mt kenya - trie to whipe the KABILA mbili propaganda before it's too late - it maybe too late because Ruto has already made such kind of overt tribal talk look primitive.
Please talk the ECONOMY. Wacha UKABILA
Even this armchair analyst does not believe your Githeri Man stories. After 8 years on the mountain there should be babies called Ruto in Nyandarua - like Obama :) My dear RV Pundit don't overwork yourself: Yaani this man has spent every minute, breath and dollar there - but still competes with Munya and Dr Nyoro. I have been telling you to the Kikuyu Ruto is just another KALENJIN ALIEN. At least Raila was Arap Mibei - but instead here it is Mdvd being baptized Macharia.
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Tena 40 percent - who took the 10 percent? How much support does Ruto have in Mt kenya - mmh - we will soon find out - in an opinion poll (or polls) - my own instincts - anything close to 80-90 percent now. Uhuru if he seriously breaks the NCBA bank and raid the broke Central Bank of Kenya could chip away at least 30 percent - so worse case RUto will get 70 percent.
If Uhuru continue being ambivalent - Ruto wins by 80-90 percent in Mt Kenya. There is more than 5 percent - (MaDVD kind of support) buffer from Jubilee 2017. And Ruto has won new allies.
So let us say Ruto worse case scenario is to win with 55 percent. Otherwise it trending towards 60 percent - and he could hit the NIRVANA of 66 percent.
https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/ruto-s-kiambaa-victory-is-pyrrhic-3485202
The Kiambaa and Juja by-election results point to a similar conundrum for Mr Ruto. He will likely get all the Kalenjin vote and 40 per cent of the Kikuyu. Even this is optimistic.
Lathering the Kikuyu with money
My analysis – and crystal ball – tell me Mr Ruto’s Kiambaa and Juja victories were pyrrhic. No matter how hard he spins it, it was a debacle for him. If after nine years of lathering the Kikuyu with money and his undivided attention he only manages a 50-50 split, then he’s headed nowhere.
This is a meagre and unflattering outcome. He needs all of the Kikuyu vote to get a fighting chance against the Deep State, which he understands only too well. We know Mr Kenyatta will do everything to block him. To win, all the stars must align to make sure groups don’t vote as directed by their kingpins.
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Raila was Arap Mibei. Mdvd is Macharia. There is no such nickname for Ruto - because they are afraid to arouse Mobutu, Kabuga or such ferver which can be lethal blow. Just like the darling Raila in RV pre-2008 - you cannot demonize harmless teddybear Mdvd in Gema like you can easily do with Ruto or Raila. That is why Raila has taken the hands-off approach knowing Ruto is literally climbing a mountain.
Ruto has baptized himself Gema elder, defender and messiah but wapi. The lazy drunk Uhuru, Kimemia, Dr Nyoro, etc still checkmate him. We seriously need a new study for this concept: vipi jamaa kukataliwa hata baada ya kununua almasi, kulipa mahari, kuwanunulia pombe na majumba wakwe, hata rathi kumwabudu Mungu wao. Maajabu!
Ribena , Please speak for the Kamba Nation. There is a way Mt Kenyans name their Children it culturally driven.
And yes there are many Williams and Bills in Mt Kenya. However you will never hear a Child names Raila . Never ever how about we look it that way
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Ruto is refered to as Karanja :) Now you know.
Meanwhile Kioni is saying Raila can go drying
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-26-ruto-lied-to-mt-kenya-raila-is-uhurus-2022-pick-mp-kioni/
Raila was Arap Mibei. Mdvd is Macharia. There is no such nickname for Ruto - because they are afraid to arouse Mobutu, Kabuga or such ferver which can be lethal blow. Just like the darling Raila in RV pre-2008 - you cannot demonize harmless teddybear Mdvd in Gema like you can easily do with Ruto or Raila. That is why Raila has taken the hands-off approach knowing Ruto is literally climbing a mountain.
Ruto has baptized himself Gema elder, defender and messiah but wapi. The lazy drunk Uhuru, Kimemia, Dr Nyoro, etc still checkmate him. We seriously need a new study for this concept: vipi jamaa kukataliwa hata baada ya kununua almasi, kulipa mahari, kuwanunulia pombe na majumba wakwe, hata rathi kumwabudu Mungu wao. Maajabu!
Ribena , Please speak for the Kamba Nation. There is a way Mt Kenyans name their Children it culturally driven.
And yes there are many Williams and Bills in Mt Kenya. However you will never hear a Child names Raila . Never ever how about we look it that way
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Githeri Man analogy
As am telling Omtata Noway, we need to study this fresh concept. Obviously the inventor of tribal math cannot teach us issue-based politics. If you were not Dr Spin you were would have a vocabulary for it by now.
Let me try: 2018-20 we needed to coin the JEZEBEL analogy to wrap our minds around how a mere PS Kibicho or advisor Nancy Gitau could block a DPORK from attending cabinet meetings, calling PORK, entering his mini-SH in Mombasa, etc. Despite the fierce civil war lead by Kamanda, Murathe, Atwoli - we were assured these few miscreants were under Kibicho or Raila spell. At some point the glaring tumor was explained away as covid social distancing. Everything was kosher in Uhurutopia.
Today: the Tangatanga gospel says Uhuru is so hated in the mountain people can't wait to torch his properties. Well, unless he tosha Ruto. Kiunjuri and Kuria are optional pawns Ruto can easily pluck away - like bottle caps - he can appoint any Wanjiku in their place. This desperate narrative is inspired by the ugly truth Prof Makau, Manyora and the Kiambaa outcome tell. In a few days or weeks, you Pundit will be telling us Ruto has the mountain under his spell: not only can he pick Githeri Man as runningmate - he could as easily replace him with Weta, Oparanya or Miguna.
GITHERI MAN is the new Jezebel. We know the truth, but you are too loud and savvy for us, so badala ya kiingereza mingi, we will invoke this new analogy to make the lie palatable. Until the dust settles and the truth is revealed as it did in Uhurutopia.
2010 constitution - 50 percent plus one - make coalition a must - going forward. Only the few Mt Kenya nationalist who haven't internalized that will not understand that our politics have changed.RV and GEMA need to find arrangment like in Nakuru - a win-win - and that the majority of GEMA understand.
This one is going chain-chain - Ruto then Kikuyu PORK then who knows maybe my 6 month son will be ready :) to become pork in 2042. Then we hand over to Nowayaha grandson in 2052.
Dont bet on Mt kenya - trie to whipe the KABILA mbili propaganda before it's too late - it maybe too late because Ruto has already made such kind of overt tribal talk look primitive.
Please talk the ECONOMY. Wacha UKABILA
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You're tryinng too much to say nothing. Eti Githeri man. Ruto knows behind the facade of Hustler Nation is pure tribalism - where he has to select Mt Kenya leader - possibly a Kikuyu. But obviously everything else will be sold as Hustler Nation. He is driving the narratives, and forcing the opponents, not to talk about the elephant in the room, the chain-chain, and focus on economics. That is very smart of him.
Githeri Man analogy
As am telling Omtata Noway, we need to study this fresh concept. Obviously the inventor of tribal math cannot teach us issue-based politics. If you were not Dr Spin you were would have a vocabulary for it by now.
Let me try: 2018-20 we needed to coin the JEZEBEL analogy to wrap our minds around how a mere PS Kibicho or advisor Nancy Gitau could block a DPORK from attending cabinet meetings, calling PORK, entering his mini-SH in Mombasa, etc. Despite the fierce civil war lead by Kamanda, Murathe, Atwoli - we were assured these few miscreants were under Kibicho or Raila spell. At some point the glaring tumor was explained away as covid social distancing. Everything was kosher in Uhurutopia.
Today: the Tangatanga gospel says Uhuru is so hated in the mountain people can't wait to torch his properties. Well, unless he tosha Ruto. Kiunjuri and Kuria are optional pawns Ruto can easily pluck away - like bottle caps - he can appoint any Wanjiku in their place. This desperate narrative is inspired by the ugly truth Prof Makau, Manyora and the Kiambaa tell. In a few days or weeks, you Pundit will be telling us Ruto has the mountain under his spell: not only can he pick Githeri Man as runningmate - he could as easily replace him with Weta, Oparanya or Miguna.
GITHERI MAN is the new Jezebel. We know the truth, but you are too loud and savvy for us, so badala ya kiingereza mingi, we will invoke this new analogy to make the lie palatable. Until the dust settles and the truth is revealed as it did in Uhurutopia.
2010 constitution - 50 percent plus one - make coalition a must - going forward. Only the few Mt Kenya nationalist who haven't internalized that will not understand that our politics have changed.RV and GEMA need to find arrangment like in Nakuru - a win-win - and that the majority of GEMA understand.
This one is going chain-chain - Ruto then Kikuyu PORK then who knows maybe my 6 month son will be ready :) to become pork in 2042. Then we hand over to Nowayaha grandson in 2052.
Dont bet on Mt kenya - trie to whipe the KABILA mbili propaganda before it's too late - it maybe too late because Ruto has already made such kind of overt tribal talk look primitive.
Please talk the ECONOMY. Wacha UKABILA
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GITHERI MAN and other stories.
55 or 60% :) I know you already have a rough MOAS of Ruto 25% from RV alone - 99% of whole place - that really wishful. Seems all Lenkus, Tunais are useless pawns? Few days ago you said Ruto has Mijikenda - which you projected from Diani win - while dismissing Mvurya as mere Duruma. In Gema anyone who dissents is suicidal - Molo MP, Waiguru, - Lee Kinyanjui is a silly Moi bastard. Njuri is helping me tell you Uhuru can easily hive off Kiunjuri or Kuria with a few billions - he ALREADY has lined up Mt Kenya East with Muturi. Your rebutt is Mbeere boy backed by 3 governors has only 60k votes. Kiunjuri is a small fish who failed to deliver tea reforms :)
Take off the blinkers. At least your spin needs to be convincing.
Tena 40 percent - who took the 10 percent? How much support does Ruto have in Mt kenya - mmh - we will soon find out - in an opinion poll (or polls) - my own instincts - anything close to 80-90 percent now. Uhuru if he seriously breaks the NCBA bank and raid the broke Central Bank of Kenya could chip away at least 30 percent - so worse case RUto will get 70 percent.
If Uhuru continue being ambivalent - Ruto wins by 80-90 percent in Mt Kenya. There is more than 5 percent - (MaDVD kind of support) buffer from Jubilee 2017. And Ruto has won new allies.
So let us say Ruto worse case scenario is to win with 55 percent. Otherwise it trending towards 60 percent - and he could hit the NIRVANA of 66 percent.
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My record speak for itself; Yes Ruto will carry RV karibu yote - 24 percent out 25. Just wait and see. Narok - Purko and Maasai bile over Mau was resolved - their forest is now "intact" and Ruto has made a deal with Purko. Kajiado will generally follow GEMA - coz GEMA are the majority diaspora community - and the GEMA is flowing with Ruto - ignore the noise from Kieleweke crew. Turkana Nanok has brought the remainder who had issues with Kenyatta - home. Pokot are this time going to vote Ruto - Jubilee 1.0 send army to beat them up and they were crumpy and voted NASA. So who else...Luhyas Ruto is making a deal in Tranzoia - and really I doubt they want to not vote for their neighbour pale in Turbo :)
Ruto will then need 26 percent nationally to nick this. Nairobi is looking good. Nairobi is normally 10 percent. Ruto could get 4-5 percent.
See we are already at 30 percent if we go by 4 percent.
We are yet to go to Central, Eastern, NEP, COAST, Gusii-Kuria Nyanza and Western.
We can go and crap 2-3 percent from Somalis-Borana - they really hate handshake/BBI- and Ruto will already be at 33 percent.
We can go Coast - and take even 30 percent there - and Coast is about 8 percent of the national vote - so Ruto hapo anacheza another 3 percent.
We are at 36 percent.
We can go to Gusii and Kuria - take our 30 percent pale - and Ruto will add another 2-3 percent.
We ar at 39 percent.
Ruto can collect few votes in Kakamega and Bungoma - maybe 1 percent.
We are at 40 percent.
Now we get to Central and Meru-Embu proper :) - we only need 10 percent plus ONE
Mt kenya is gone from Uhuru - assuming Uhuru really really ever wanted it - I really doubt. He has paid lip services to people and their leaders.
Anyway do not be jittery - MOASS as always will be very thorough.
GITHERI MAN and other stories.
55 or 60% :) I know you already have a rough MOAS of Ruto 25% from RV alone - 99% of whole place - that really wishful. Seems all Lenkus, Tunais are useless pawns? Few days ago you said Ruto has Mijikenda - which you projected from Diani win - while dismissing Mvurya as mere Duruma. In Gema anyone who dissents is suicidal - Molo MP, Waiguru, - Lee Kinyanjui is a silly Moi bastard. Njuri is helping me tell you Uhuru can easily hive off Kiunjuri or Kuria with a few billions - he ALREADY has lined up Mt Kenya East with Muturi. Your rebutt is Mbeere boy backed by 3 governors has only 60k votes. Kiunjuri is a small fish who failed to deliver tea reforms :)
Take off the blinkers. At least your spin needs to be convincing.
Tena 40 percent - who took the 10 percent? How much support does Ruto have in Mt kenya - mmh - we will soon find out - in an opinion poll (or polls) - my own instincts - anything close to 80-90 percent now. Uhuru if he seriously breaks the NCBA bank and raid the broke Central Bank of Kenya could chip away at least 30 percent - so worse case RUto will get 70 percent.
If Uhuru continue being ambivalent - Ruto wins by 80-90 percent in Mt Kenya. There is more than 5 percent - (MaDVD kind of support) buffer from Jubilee 2017. And Ruto has won new allies.
So let us say Ruto worse case scenario is to win with 55 percent. Otherwise it trending towards 60 percent - and he could hit the NIRVANA of 66 percent.
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That RV 99% goes to Ruto is just more Githeri Man stories like Mt Kenya. If the united incumbents UhuRuto could not nail it with Jubilee mean machine - how is it possible now? - 2017 was Ruto peak. Saa hii he will do worse - unless up is down cause he has less resources and denied support by the treacherous Uhuru you so underrate. What for example is ole Lenku's party leaning? - so that all Maa are with Ruto - the man could be in ODM for all we know.
Giving anyone 99% of anything - IS DESPERATE & DELUSIONAL - maybe Raila in Luo - if Obado PDP fails to slice 2%. Even Kalenjin are only 95% Ruto.
No, "pastoralists" are not Ruto's vote - definitely not in the Kalenjin-Gema Uhuruto fashion. MATUSA, NEP, etc will much more plausibly chip away to URP level. Jubilee machine death means Ruto has LOST support - 99% to 50 in Gema - now apply such projection to other areas including your precious RV. Then give us those MOAS.
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RV is something like Kalenjin 55 percent; Kikuyus 20 percent; The rest 25 percent (MATUSA+few luhyas). Kalenjin Ruto wins 54 percent (?), Kikuyus let even go with 50 percent (:) :)) - that is 10 percent; Matusa let go with 75 percent( 15 percent); Let leave 5 percent of Luhyas and Luos out. Let add up 55 +10+15=80 percent....
See worse case Ruto does 21 percent - with 50 percent of GEMA, 75 percent of Kamatusa and zero percent of others.
Remove 3 percent - and you see Ruto is at 37 percent - before we enter Central and Meru - :) - those two regions have about 20 percent of the vote to be won. If we go 50-50 :) - worse case scenario - Ruto hits 47 percent.
Besides watch out for new registration of Kalenjin in 2022 - it will be huge - kalenjin are the most excited about 2022. That could provide the missing 3 percent in worse case scenario :) :)
That RV 99% goes to Ruto is just more Githeri Man stories like Mt Kenya. If the united incumbents UhuRuto could not nail it with Jubilee mean machine - how is it possible now? - 2017 was Ruto peak. Saa hii he will do worse - unless up is down cause he has less resources and denied support by the treacherous Uhuru you so underrate. What for example is ole Lenku's party leaning? - so that all Maa are with Ruto - the man could be in ODM for all we know.
Giving anyone 99% of anything - IS DESPERATE & DELUSIONAL - maybe Raila in Luo - if Obado PDP fails to slice 2%. Even Kalenjin are only 95% Ruto.
No, "pastoralists" are not Ruto's vote - definitely not in the Kalenjin-Gema Uhuruto fashion. MATUSA, NEP, etc will much more plausibly chip away to URP level. Jubilee machine death means Ruto has LOST support - 99% to 50 in Gema - now apply such projection to other areas including your precious RV. Then give us those MOAS.
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Come slowly am a scientist. RV yote 21% + Gema outside-RV 10% (avoid Gema double-count) is 31%. That leaves Ruto with 19% GULF to victory.
Now my question is: Jubilee 2017 got mere 70%[?] of MATUSA, NEP, etc - a significant improvement over URP 2013. What makes UDA do better?? People like ole Lenku, Tunai strongly back(ed) BBI but are silent now - but Lenku is Uhuru blue-eyed boy ala Matiang'i - from flipping burgers to Interior CS to governor in 2 minutes. Short of an obvious public shift it is more objective to assume Lenku remains Uhuru boy.
Dec 2020 Mvurya backed Ruto in Diani. Kingi backed ODM. In March [?] we saw the 3 governors in SH with Uhuru. Since then, Kingi & Mvurya avoid both Ruto and Raila. On what basis do we allocate their support to either camp??
MATUSA, NEP, Gusii, etc - all non-Kalenjin regions - there is no objective basis for Ruto to do any better than 2017 - to close the 19% gap.
RV is something like Kalenjin 55 percent; Kikuyus 20 percent; The rest 25 percent (MATUSA+few luhyas). Kalenjin Ruto wins 54 percent (?), Kikuyus let even go with 50 percent (:) :)) - that is 10 percent; Matusa let go with 75 percent( 15 percent); Let leave 5 percent of Luhyas and Luos out. Let add up 55 +10+15=80 percent....
See worse case Ruto does 21 percent - with 50 percent of GEMA, 75 percent of Kamatusa and zero percent of others.
Remove 3 percent - and you see Ruto is at 37 percent - before we enter Central and Meru - :) - those two regions have about 20 percent of the vote to be won. If we go 50-50 :) - worse case scenario - Ruto hits 47 percent.
Besides watch out for new registration of Kalenjin in 2022 - it will be huge - kalenjin are the most excited about 2022. That could provide the missing 3 percent in worse case scenario :) :)
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You're a comedian - not a sceintist.
I told you to use old province so you don't get confused.
There are areas Ruto will get some votes - and others he wont (for now Luo Nyanza for sure)
Core (Cattle Complex Pastoral Group ) - URP - go with 80 percent hapo
RV - 25 percent of the vote - 21 - going with 98 of kalenjin, 50 percent of kikuyus, 70 percent of Matusa.
NEP+Isolo+marsabit- 3 percent - 2 - going with 2/3 of the cushites.
Core (GEMA) -Jubilee/UDA - go even with 50 percent :) to make you really hopeful
Central - 15 percent - 7.5
Nairobi - 12 percent of the vote - roughly split into half - 6 percent pro-Jubilee - 6 percent pro-nasa - 4
Eastern -6 percent (Meru+tharaka+embu) - ignore the 3 counties of Ukambani - 3
Swing Zones (30-40) percent
Gusii+Kuria(half migori) - 5 percent -2
coast - 8 percent -3
.....maybe a few votes
Western - 10 percent - 4 counties - let assume 10 percent - 1
Do the maths 21+2+7.5+4+3+2+3+1
Total= 44 percent. That is Ruto firing at 50 percent in GEMA - 30 percent in swing zones - and 10 percent in Western - zero percent in Ukambani and Luo Nyanza. And turn out being equal countrywide.
Now let assume 44 percent is Ruto baseline now.
To win in 2022- Ruto needs to do one or two of these things
If Ruto get 60 percent of GEMA - he adds another 3 percent - 47 percent.
If Ruto get 70 percent of GEMA - he adds another 3 percent - 50 percent
If Ruto improves Kalenjin registration and turn out - he can easily get another 2 percent;
If Ruto signs a deal with Weta he gets another 3 percent.
If Ruto signs a deal with Kalonzo he gets another 8 percent
If Ruto signs a deal with maDVD he gets another 4 percent.
If Ruto improves coast to 50 percent - he get another 1 percent.
If Ruto signs a deal with Kingi-Mvurya new coast party - he gets another 2-3 percent.
Come slowly am a scientist. RV yote 21% + Gema outside-RV 10% (avoid Gema double-count) is 31%. That leaves Ruto with 19% GULF to victory.
Now my question is: Jubilee 2017 got mere 70%[?] of MATUSA, NEP, etc - a significant improvement over URP 2013. What makes UDA do better?? People like ole Lenku, Tunai strongly back(ed) BBI but are silent now - but Lenku is Uhuru blue-eyed boy ala Matiang'i - from flipping burgers to Interior CS to governor in 2 minutes. Short of an obvious public shift it is more objective to assume Lenku remains Uhuru boy.
Dec 2020 Mvurya backed Ruto in Diani. Kingi backed ODM. In March [?] we saw the 3 governors in SH with Uhuru. Since then, Kingi & Mvurya avoid both Ruto and Raila. On what basis do we allocate their support to either camp??
MATUSA, NEP, Gusii, etc - all non-Kalenjin regions - there is no objective basis for Ruto to do any better than 2017 - to close the 19% gap.
RV is something like Kalenjin 55 percent; Kikuyus 20 percent; The rest 25 percent (MATUSA+few luhyas). Kalenjin Ruto wins 54 percent (?), Kikuyus let even go with 50 percent (:) :)) - that is 10 percent; Matusa let go with 75 percent( 15 percent); Let leave 5 percent of Luhyas and Luos out. Let add up 55 +10+15=80 percent....
See worse case Ruto does 21 percent - with 50 percent of GEMA, 75 percent of Kamatusa and zero percent of others.
Remove 3 percent - and you see Ruto is at 37 percent - before we enter Central and Meru - :) - those two regions have about 20 percent of the vote to be won. If we go 50-50 :) - worse case scenario - Ruto hits 47 percent.
Besides watch out for new registration of Kalenjin in 2022 - it will be huge - kalenjin are the most excited about 2022. That could provide the missing 3 percent in worse case scenario :) :)
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Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played? Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom. It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera. But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one. Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated. Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge. Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.
Come slowly am a scientist. RV yote 21% + Gema outside-RV 10% (avoid Gema double-count) is 31%. That leaves Ruto with 19% GULF to victory.
Now my question is: Jubilee 2017 got mere 70%[?] of MATUSA, NEP, etc - a significant improvement over URP 2013. What makes UDA do better?? People like ole Lenku, Tunai strongly back(ed) BBI but are silent now - but Lenku is Uhuru blue-eyed boy ala Matiang'i - from flipping burgers to Interior CS to governor in 2 minutes. Short of an obvious public shift it is more objective to assume Lenku remains Uhuru boy.
Dec 2020 Mvurya backed Ruto in Diani. Kingi backed ODM. In March [?] we saw the 3 governors in SH with Uhuru. Since then, Kingi & Mvurya avoid both Ruto and Raila. On what basis do we allocate their support to either camp??
MATUSA, NEP, Gusii, etc - all non-Kalenjin regions - there is no objective basis for Ruto to do any better than 2017 - to close the 19% gap.
RV is something like Kalenjin 55 percent; Kikuyus 20 percent; The rest 25 percent (MATUSA+few luhyas). Kalenjin Ruto wins 54 percent (?), Kikuyus let even go with 50 percent (:) :)) - that is 10 percent; Matusa let go with 75 percent( 15 percent); Let leave 5 percent of Luhyas and Luos out. Let add up 55 +10+15=80 percent....
See worse case Ruto does 21 percent - with 50 percent of GEMA, 75 percent of Kamatusa and zero percent of others.
Remove 3 percent - and you see Ruto is at 37 percent - before we enter Central and Meru - :) - those two regions have about 20 percent of the vote to be won. If we go 50-50 :) - worse case scenario - Ruto hits 47 percent.
Besides watch out for new registration of Kalenjin in 2022 - it will be huge - kalenjin are the most excited about 2022. That could provide the missing 3 percent in worse case scenario :) :)
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Obviously that 44% is a moonshot. Ruto's HEAVIEST PUNCH was the united Jubilee of 2017. 54%. Then handshake struck.
Ruto now has 99% Kalenjin (yes with higher turnout). 50% Gema (likely lower turnout). Coast he maybe benefits by shedding Kenyatta baggage. How UDA outperforms Jubilee in MATUSA, NEP, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kuria is wishful thinking. At least you are more realistic in Gusii, Luhya - although Nandi like Kipsigis are very bad neighbors. Nairobi some more wishes.
Am glad you concede it pure tribe not economics. :)
Take JUBILEE 2017 NUMBERS: now use logic and give Ruto lower scores after Uhuruto breakup. Just like Gema breakup: if Jubilee had 70% in Isiolo - Uhuru wedging off Yatani leaves LESS than that not same or more. Mandera since Roba defected - you get less not more. Maa with ole Lenku, Tunai, etc - less. There is no magic anywhere that will make Ruto do better after Jubilee implosion and pro-Handshake defections.
Once you have that; We can discuss how Weta or Oparanya or Kiunjuri or xyz might switch camps.
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Kichwa first I am still not convinved that Uhuru and Ruto are completely done. I still see high level games here. I still see a lot of restrain from both sides - I don't see the blood on the streets - I see people who went to Uhuru - come back to Ruto like nothing happened.
Secondly nobody has been humiliated as much as Ruto has been.
After working hard to win PORK with Uhuru; he has endured 4yrs of turning the other cheek.
Now Uhuru has 1yr to go - and is lameduck.
Finally POWER IS TAKEN - not given. The cowards CAN NEVER RULE.
Ruto has been turning the other cheek but now it's one year to election - Uhuru has entered the lameduck phase - nobody really cares what he does - not even security forces.
People are looking for post-Uhuru positions, jobs, tenders, promotion. You can bet half his cabinet are not in office but campaigning.
Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played? Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom. It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera. But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one. Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated. Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge. Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.
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Dont sweat that. In 2012/2013 I did all these kind of permutations - until Mutahi Ngunyai run to the media with TRYANNY of NUMBERS.
The areas you're sweating like COAST, MATUSA, name it - even if you go granular and get it as right as possible, it CHANGES NOTHING.
For example adding 10 or 20 percent to Ruto or Raila in such areas - cause almost no change in total numbers.
The elephants my friend is Kikuyu(GEMA). Then KALENJIN(KAMATUSA). Those are largest voting block in order. Then Luos. Then Kambas at 10 percent with 8 percent for Kalonzo. Then LUHYAS who splinter their vote normally.
Conclusion: If Ruto scores 60 percent of GEMA ( i kept turn out constant - using just registered votes) and improves Kalenjin registration/turnout - he finishes it in first round.
Just forget the rest - watch GEMA! Let keep an eye for opinion polls if they ever come.
If Ruto scores as much as 60 percent of GEMA- then fold your camp - and move to UDA :) mapema.
If he goes to 70 percent - then it almost over however much NASA do.
If he goes to 80 percent - in GEMA - then it certainly beyond rigging.
In short Ruto is pretty much looking for rigging margins to protect his vote.
Obviously that 44% is a moonshot. Ruto's HEAVIEST PUNCH was the united Jubilee of 2017. 54%. Then handshake struck.
Ruto now has 99% Kalenjin (yes with higher turnout). 50% Gema (likely lower turnout). Coast he maybe benefits by shedding Kenyatta baggage. How UDA outperforms Jubilee in MATUSA, NEP, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kuria is wishful thinking. At least you are more realistic in Gusii, Luhya - although Nandi like Kipsigis are very bad neighbors. Nairobi some more wishes.
Am glad you concede it pure tribe not economics. :)
Take JUBILEE 2017 NUMBERS: now use logic and give Ruto lower scores after Uhuruto breakup. Just like Gema breakup: if Jubilee had 70% in Isiolo - Uhuru wedging off Yatani leaves LESS than that not same or more. Mandera since Roba defected - you get less not more. Maa with ole Lenku, Tunai, etc - less. There is no magic anywhere that will make Ruto do better after Jubilee implosion and pro-Handshake defections.
Once you have that; We can discuss how Weta or Oparanya or Kiunjuri or xyz might switch camps.
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The new spin is how Ruto has Gema under lock & key; - this hat-trick allows him to trade DPORK with Kalonzo or Mdvd. But in truth you find even just Kiunjuri defecting would bring down the house.
Uhuru & Raila have more cards:-
1. Kalonzo cannot get better than DPORK in UDA. This however would compound the Gema conundrum in Ruto camp. No takers.
2. Mdvd has no katikati hope in UDA. He gets ghost PM at best despite the anti-BBI vows. What are the chances someone vehemently deriding proper powersharing as dynasty jobs honoring such a secret promise AFTER ascending the throne?
You can plainly tell these people's stand from their vicious attacks on Ruto but not on Raila or Uhuru. No genius analysis needed. Weta being mired with likely sponsored Ford-K feuds and his bitterness indicates a likely defector. Oparanya is harder because he has no party nor independent base.
3. Kiunjuri or Kuria can easily be annointed the new Kikuyu Prince by the retiring dynasty. Ruto has neither the power nor leeway to bypass Kuria, Gachagua, etc - cause duhh - there is the small problem of being just an alien. Not only can he not pick Githeri Man for runningmate - but any choice almost certainly precipitates a fallout with the loser.
Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played? Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom. It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera. But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one. Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated. Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge. Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.
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I thought we agreed with your 50 percent:)
I guess we need to reduce that to zero percent :)
Ruto we know has 90 percent of Mt kenya.
And Ruto support in Mt kenya is DIRECT INJECTION.
It not through Kuria or Kiunjuri.
Big difference. Ruto doesnt need any of them - they are part of large team - Meru team alone is huge - Embu huge - Central huge - Diaspoara huge.
Ruto has not entered into any alliance and UDA is right inside mt kenya.
It Moses Kuria and Kiunjuri who are trying to keep their hopes alive but KIambaa changed everything.
Ruto will fry them like chapati...it will be UDA all through...mt Kenya do not want other parties.
That was the most important milestone in Kiambaa - as you concentrated on 50 percent.
it was direct acceptance of Ruto.
The new spin is how Ruto has Gema under lock & key; - this hat-trick allows him to trade DPORK with Kalonzo or Mdvd. But in truth you find even just Kiunjuri defecting would bring down the house.
Uhuru & Raila have more cards:-
1. Kalonzo cannot get better than DPORK in UDA. This however would compound the Gema conundrum in Ruto camp. No takers.
2. Mdvd has no katikati hope in UDA. He gets ghost PM at best despite the anti-BBI vows. What are the chances someone vehemently deriding proper powersharing as dynasty jobs honoring such a secret promise AFTER ascending the throne?
You can plainly tell these people's stand from their vicious attacks on Ruto but not on Raila or Uhuru. No genius analysis needed. Weta being mired with likely sponsored Ford-K feuds and his bitterness indicates a likely defector. Oparanya is harder because he has no party nor independent base.
3. Kiunjuri or Kuria can easily be annointed the new Kikuyu Prince by the retiring dynasty. Ruto has neither the power nor leeway to bypass Kuria, Gachagua, etc - cause duhh - there is the small problem of being just an alien. Not only can he not pick Githeri Man for runningmate - but any choice almost certainly precipitates a fallout with the loser.
Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played? Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom. It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera. But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one. Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated. Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge. Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.
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Ruto is simply 'Hasola'. All have seen him work day and night to be accepted, adopted and naturalized.
Ruto is refered to as Karanja :) Now you know.
Meanwhile Kioni is saying Raila can go drying
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-26-ruto-lied-to-mt-kenya-raila-is-uhurus-2022-pick-mp-kioni/
Raila was Arap Mibei. Mdvd is Macharia. There is no such nickname for Ruto - because they are afraid to arouse Mobutu, Kabuga or such ferver which can be lethal blow. Just like the darling Raila in RV pre-2008 - you cannot demonize harmless teddybear Mdvd in Gema like you can easily do with Ruto or Raila. That is why Raila has taken the hands-off approach knowing Ruto is literally climbing a mountain.
Ruto has baptized himself Gema elder, defender and messiah but wapi. The lazy drunk Uhuru, Kimemia, Dr Nyoro, etc still checkmate him. We seriously need a new study for this concept: vipi jamaa kukataliwa hata baada ya kununua almasi, kulipa mahari, kuwanunulia pombe na majumba wakwe, hata rathi kumwabudu Mungu wao. Maajabu!
Ribena , Please speak for the Kamba Nation. There is a way Mt Kenyans name their Children it culturally driven.
And yes there are many Williams and Bills in Mt Kenya. However you will never hear a Child names Raila . Never ever how about we look it that way
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Power is taken sometimes and sometimes given-mostly given. You can only take something if you can. The way Ruto has dropped-ataweza Kweli even if you give him 50% of Mt. Kenya? I can't wait to read the spin you will come up with when the evidence becomes overwhelming that Ruto will not be the fifth PORK.
Kichwa first I am still not convinved that Uhuru and Ruto are completely done. I still see high level games here. I still see a lot of restrain from both sides - I don't see the blood on the streets - I see people who went to Uhuru - come back to Ruto like nothing happened.
Secondly nobody has been humiliated as much as Ruto has been.
After working hard to win PORK with Uhuru; he has endured 4yrs of turning the other cheek.
Now Uhuru has 1yr to go - and is lameduck.
Finally POWER IS TAKEN - not given. The cowards CAN NEVER RULE.
Ruto has been turning the other cheek but now it's one year to election - Uhuru has entered the lameduck phase - nobody really cares what he does - not even security forces.
People are looking for post-Uhuru positions, jobs, tenders, promotion. You can bet half his cabinet are not in office but campaigning.
Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played? Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom. It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera. But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one. Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated. Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge. Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.
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50 percent of Mt Kenya is enough for Ruto to win. It get him to 44 percent - just needing 6 percent to nail it - and he can get 2-3 percent by improving kalenjin registration/turnout - and 2-3 percent by improving his votes in other parts of the country.
Ruto will do better than Uhuru did in Non-GEMA because he is not a kenyatta who has stolen land nor a kikuyu - so he will do better in Turkana, West Pokot, Western, Coast,NEP - and maybe same level in Ukambani and Gusii like Jubilee did. Those extra votes will fill any void in GEMA.
It almost impossible for Ruto to lose 2022.
Power is taken sometimes and sometimes given-mostly given. You can only take something if you can. The way Ruto has dropped-ataweza Kweli even if you give him 50% of Mt. Kenya? I can't wait to read the spin you will come up with when the evidence becomes overwhelming that Ruto will not be the fifth PORK.
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If Duale left Ruto you would tell us he is a nobody with 10k votes in Dujis. Ati Ruto does not need Kuria or Kiunjuris - so when is he unveiling Kalonzo as his DPORK? PEP had to STEP DOWN for UDA to win by mere 500 votes - after 60% PEP margin in Juja. They still lost Muguga. At least Raila knows to work with Uhuru and let Gema sort their own mess - that not his job - after Kalenjin lesson.
What I predict in Gema: UDA will break - Kiunjuri or Kuria likely to leave once Ruto picks either or a different person as runningmate. These people are not there to annoint Ruto but for their own ambitions.
Uhuru has not annointed a Kikuyu successor - smart move - I see Munya throwing tantrums over Muturi envy. Whoever of the UDA crew leaves Ruto - will be offered a lofty perch. PK seems to be recovering from covid and has totally failed to impress.
I thought we agreed with your 50 percent:)
I guess we need to reduce that to zero percent :)
Ruto we know has 90 percent of Mt kenya.
And Ruto support in Mt kenya is DIRECT INJECTION.
It not through Kuria or Kiunjuri.
Big difference. Ruto doesnt need any of them - they are part of large team - Meru team alone is huge - Embu huge - Central huge - Diaspoara huge.
Ruto has not entered into any alliance and UDA is right inside mt kenya.
It Moses Kuria and Kiunjuri who are trying to keep their hopes alive but KIambaa changed everything.
Ruto will fry them like chapati...it will be UDA all through...mt Kenya do not want other parties.
That was the most important milestone in Kiambaa - as you concentrated on 50 percent.
it was direct acceptance of Ruto.
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Yes of course NEP - if you saw my calculation bring in 2 percent. Max of 3 percent. So Duale is important but for other reasons. This is more like pastoral kinship :) They love cows like we do.
As regard to TSP (tissue paper), and new party of Moses Kuria (Chama cha Kazi) - I dont see how they will survive UDA rollercoaster that Ruto is laying in Mt kenya.
As you read - already 80,000 of my inlaws in Embu are already UDA.
The biggest break for UDA was Kiambaa.
In short Ruto 2016 gamble to strongly couple in Jubilee is paying off.
Those hoping to go back to period of URP-TNA (like Moses Kuria) will be lonely and forgotten by december.
But they will become useful in April - after UDA nomination - because many loses in UDA will need Ruto friendly parties.
If Duale left Ruto you would tell us he is a nobody with 10k votes in Dujis. Ati Ruto does not need Kuria or Kiunjuris - so when is he unveiling Kalonzo as his DPORK? At least Raila knows to work with Uhuru and let Gema sort their own mess - that not his job - after Kalenjin lesson.
What I predict in Gema: UDA will break - Kiunjuri or Kuria likely to leave once Ruto picks either or a different person as runningmate. These people are not there to annoint Ruto but for their own ambitions.
Uhuru has not annointed a Kikuyu successor - smart move - I see Munya throwing tantrums over Muturi envy. Whoever of the UDA crew leaves Ruto - will be offered a lofty perch. PK seems to be recovering from covid and has totally failed to impress.
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Last I checked Roba and the entire Mandera clan joined Handshake. That is what matters - there is no Kenyatta baggage outside Kalenjin and Pwani.
After Jubilee peak - Ruto is starting again with new party. That is big loss not a gain. That 44% is voodoo.
50 percent of Mt Kenya is enough for Ruto to win. It get him to 44 percent - just needing 6 percent to nail it - and he can get 2-3 percent by improving kalenjin registration/turnout - and 2-3 percent by improving his votes in other parts of the country.
Ruto will do better than Uhuru did in Non-GEMA because he is not a kenyatta who has stolen land nor a kikuyu - so he will do better in Turkana, West Pokot, Western, Coast,NEP - and maybe same level in Ukambani and Gusii like Jubilee did. Those extra votes will fill any void in GEMA.
It almost impossible for Ruto to lose 2022.
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You seem to give a lot of premium to governors - whom thanks to Mumbi bad judgement - made them worse than DCs - security of tenure wise - and have to ask harambee house how high they can jump.
Wait until governors show you their true colors. And Mandera is not Roba.
All Somalis are under Ruto for one reason - Uhuru attempt to do 1M1S and BBI - I think you saw in the opinion poll they are most opposed to BBI.
Do not use scared governors as political indicator - unless you do not want to face reality.
Which essentially is the issue you - YOU DO NOT WANT TO ACCEPT Reality.
44 percent we did as WORSE CASE scenario with RUto scoring 50 percent of GEMA, zero percent in Ukambani and Luo Nyanza, almost zero percent in Luhya land, except for few votes, 60 percent of Somalis-Boranas, 30 percent of coast/gusii, 70 percent of Matusa and 98 percent of Kalenjin - but maybe we can give gideon something more :) :)
HOW LOW DO YOU WANT TO GO :) :) - Tell me the percentages; and I will tell you how much Ruto will go down.
Ruto is impossible to BEAT UNLESS HE LOSES GEMA - and it would take a gigantic screw up for him to do that now.
Uhuru struggled in many areas that Ruto will do better - start in RV -
1) MATUSA generally voted against Uhuru (kalenjin and kikuyu diaspora was helping hide the figures) - they went 70 percent almost in turkana and maasai for Raila - and 30 percent for Uhuru.
2) Pokot -gave Raila almost 30 percent.
3) Coast - mijikenda gave uhuru - something like 15 percent - they do not like Jomo kenyatta there
4) Luhyas hated Uhuru - 2013 - Uhuru scored 5 percent or less of Luhya votes.
5) The Somalis-Borana were generally 60-40 - almost unsure.
Those few areas Ruto will improve in
But Uhuru did well in Gusii - who do not have the anti-kikuyu vibe. If Matiangi had grown wings - it would have been problems. But we know Matiangi poltiical wings were clipped in Borabu.
Kambas and Luos obviously did not vote for Jubilee - but Jubilee tried in Ukambani (?)
Last I checked Roba and the entire Mandera clan joined Handshake. That is what matters - there is no Kenyatta baggage outside Kalenjin and Pwani.
After Jubilee peak - Ruto is starting again with new party. That is big loss not a gain. That 44% is voodoo.
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Robina study this article
https://medium.com/@DataSciencing/kenya-votes-543311f517c9
You can see the trends that will carry Ruto without 100 percent of GEMA support. Ruto has been working hard since 2013 to flip many pro-Raila region to Jubilee and its working.
Remember Moi use to score 40 percent - without single Kikuyu, Luo, few Luhyas and few kambas votes. This was Ruto plan B - now Plan C.
In 2017 - Raila was hemorrhaging the Moi constituency that he inherited in 2002-2005.
Compared to 2013.
There was evident decrease in support among some counties such as Kisii, Turkana, Nyamira, Tana River, Samburu, Narok, and Wajir. The largest decrease in support was in Marsabit County from 48.78% to 14.44%.
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Moi elections were mostly stolen in broad daylight. Either you're mistaken or you want to show how Ruto is such a Moi student like he has been since 2013.
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It generally reflected the will of people. Did Jaramogi have any support in Vihiga? Or Maasai? or Turkana? or North Eastern? of course not.
If MOi was rigging - why didnt he not rig some votes in Luo Nyanza, Kikuyu, Kamba and such opposition zones like say Bukusu? Why allow himself to get zero?
The same KANU support base is what has kept Raila afloat for 20yrs - although he has been unable to convert it into a win.
Ruto is now taking that KANU supportbase back and adding GEMA
Meaning it impossible to beat WSR
Moi elections were mostly stolen in broad daylight. Either you're mistaken or you want to show how Ruto is such a Moi student like he has been since 2013.