You're a comedian - not a sceintist.
I told you to use old province so you don't get confused.
There are areas Ruto will get some votes - and others he wont (for now Luo Nyanza for sure)
Core (Cattle Complex Pastoral Group ) - URP - go with 80 percent hapo
RV - 25 percent of the vote -
21 - going with 98 of kalenjin, 50 percent of kikuyus, 70 percent of Matusa.
NEP+Isolo+marsabit- 3 percent -
2 - going with 2/3 of the cushites.
Core (GEMA) -Jubilee/UDA - go even with 50 percent
to make you really hopeful
Central - 15 percent -
7.5 Nairobi - 12 percent of the vote - roughly split into half - 6 percent pro-Jubilee - 6 percent pro-nasa -
4Eastern -6 percent (Meru+tharaka+embu) - ignore the 3 counties of Ukambani -
3Swing Zones (30-40) percent
Gusii+Kuria(half migori) - 5 percent -
2coast - 8 percent -
3.....maybe a few votes
Western - 10 percent - 4 counties - let assume 10 percent -
1Do the maths 21+2+7.5+4+3+2+3+1
Total= 44 percent. That is Ruto firing at 50 percent in GEMA - 30 percent in swing zones - and 10 percent in Western - zero percent in Ukambani and Luo Nyanza. And turn out being equal countrywide.
Now let assume 44 percent is Ruto baseline now.
To win in 2022- Ruto needs to do one or two of these thingsIf Ruto get 60 percent of GEMA - he adds another 3 percent - 47 percent.
If Ruto get 70 percent of GEMA - he adds another 3 percent - 50 percentIf Ruto improves Kalenjin registration and turn out - he can easily get another 2 percent;
If Ruto signs a deal with Weta he gets another 3 percent.
If Ruto signs a deal with Kalonzo he gets another 8 percent
If Ruto signs a deal with maDVD he gets another 4 percent.
If Ruto improves coast to 50 percent - he get another 1 percent.
If Ruto signs a deal with Kingi-Mvurya new coast party - he gets another 2-3 percent.
Come slowly am a scientist. RV yote 21% + Gema outside-RV 10% (avoid Gema double-count) is 31%. That leaves Ruto with 19% GULF to victory.
Now my question is: Jubilee 2017 got mere 70%[?] of MATUSA, NEP, etc - a significant improvement over URP 2013. What makes UDA do better?? People like ole Lenku, Tunai strongly back(ed) BBI but are silent now - but Lenku is Uhuru blue-eyed boy ala Matiang'i - from flipping burgers to Interior CS to governor in 2 minutes. Short of an obvious public shift it is more objective to assume Lenku remains Uhuru boy.
Dec 2020 Mvurya backed Ruto in Diani. Kingi backed ODM. In March [?] we saw the 3 governors in SH with Uhuru. Since then, Kingi & Mvurya avoid both Ruto and Raila. On what basis do we allocate their support to either camp??
MATUSA, NEP, Gusii, etc - all non-Kalenjin regions - there is no objective basis for Ruto to do any better than 2017 - to close the 19% gap.
RV is something like Kalenjin 55 percent; Kikuyus 20 percent; The rest 25 percent (MATUSA+few luhyas). Kalenjin Ruto wins 54 percent (?), Kikuyus let even go with 50 percent ( ) - that is 10 percent; Matusa let go with 75 percent( 15 percent); Let leave 5 percent of Luhyas and Luos out. Let add up 55 +10+15=80 percent....
See worse case Ruto does 21 percent - with 50 percent of GEMA, 75 percent of Kamatusa and zero percent of others.
Remove 3 percent - and you see Ruto is at 37 percent - before we enter Central and Meru - - those two regions have about 20 percent of the vote to be won. If we go 50-50 - worse case scenario - Ruto hits 47 percent.
Besides watch out for new registration of Kalenjin in 2022 - it will be huge - kalenjin are the most excited about 2022. That could provide the missing 3 percent in worse case scenario
Topic: Makau Mutua: Ruto’s Kiambaa victory is pyrrhic (Read 4406 times)