Makau Mutua: Ruto’s Kiambaa victory is pyrrhic

[RV Pundit]

I thought we agreed with your 50 percent:)
I guess we need to reduce that to zero percent
Ruto we know has 90 percent of Mt kenya.

And Ruto support in Mt kenya is DIRECT INJECTION.

It not through Kuria or Kiunjuri.

Big difference. Ruto doesnt need any of them - they are part of large team - Meru team alone is huge - Embu huge - Central huge - Diaspoara huge.

Ruto has not entered into any alliance and UDA is right inside mt kenya.

It Moses Kuria and Kiunjuri who are trying to keep their hopes alive but KIambaa changed everything.

Ruto will fry them like chapati...it will be UDA all through...mt Kenya do not want other parties.

That was the most important milestone in Kiambaa - as you concentrated on 50 percent.

it was direct acceptance of Ruto.

The new spin is how Ruto has Gema under lock & key; - this hat-trick allows him to trade DPORK with Kalonzo or Mdvd. But in truth you find even just Kiunjuri defecting would bring down the house.

Uhuru & Raila have more cards:-
1. Kalonzo cannot get better than DPORK in UDA. This however would compound the Gema conundrum in Ruto camp. No takers.

2. Mdvd has no katikati hope in UDA. He gets ghost PM at best despite the anti-BBI vows. What are the chances someone vehemently deriding proper powersharing as dynasty jobs honoring such a secret promise AFTER ascending the throne?

You can plainly tell these people's stand from their vicious attacks on Ruto but not on Raila or Uhuru. No genius analysis needed. Weta being mired with likely sponsored Ford-K feuds and his bitterness indicates a likely defector. Oparanya is harder because he has no party nor independent base.

3. Kiunjuri or Kuria can easily be annointed the new Kikuyu Prince by the retiring dynasty. Ruto has neither the power nor leeway to bypass Kuria, Gachagua, etc - cause duhh - there is the small problem of being just an alien. Not only can he not pick Githeri Man for runningmate - but any choice almost certainly precipitates a fallout with the loser.

Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played?  Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom.  It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera.  But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one.  Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated.  Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge.  Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.

[gout]

Ruto is simply 'Hasola'. All have seen him work day and night to be accepted, adopted and naturalized.

Ruto is refered to as Karanja   Now you know.

Meanwhile Kioni is saying Raila can go drying
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-26-ruto-lied-to-mt-kenya-raila-is-uhurus-2022-pick-mp-kioni/

Raila was Arap Mibei. Mdvd is Macharia. There is no such nickname for Ruto - because they are afraid to arouse Mobutu, Kabuga or such ferver which can be lethal blow. Just like the darling Raila in RV pre-2008 - you cannot demonize harmless teddybear Mdvd in Gema like you can easily do with Ruto or Raila. That is why Raila has taken the hands-off approach knowing Ruto is literally climbing a mountain.

Ruto has baptized himself Gema elder, defender and messiah but wapi. The lazy drunk Uhuru, Kimemia, Dr Nyoro, etc still checkmate him. We seriously need a new study for this concept: vipi jamaa kukataliwa hata baada ya kununua almasi, kulipa mahari, kuwanunulia pombe na majumba wakwe, hata rathi kumwabudu Mungu wao. Maajabu!

Ribena , Please speak for the Kamba Nation. There is a way Mt Kenyans name their Children it culturally driven.
And yes there are many Williams and Bills in Mt Kenya.  However you will never hear a Child names Raila . Never ever how about we look it that way

[Kichwa]

Power is taken sometimes and sometimes given-mostly given.  You can only take something  if you can.   The way Ruto has dropped-ataweza Kweli even if you give him 50% of Mt. Kenya?  I can't wait to read the spin you will come up with when the evidence becomes overwhelming that Ruto will not be the fifth PORK.

Kichwa first I am still not convinved that Uhuru and Ruto are completely done. I still see high level games here. I still see a lot of restrain from both sides - I don't see the blood on the streets - I see people who went to Uhuru - come back to Ruto like nothing happened.

Secondly nobody has been humiliated as much as Ruto has been.
After working hard to win PORK with Uhuru; he has endured 4yrs of turning the other cheek.
Now Uhuru has 1yr to go - and is lameduck.

Finally POWER IS TAKEN - not given. The cowards CAN NEVER RULE.

Ruto has been turning the other cheek but now it's one year to election - Uhuru has entered the lameduck phase - nobody really cares what he does - not even security forces.

People are looking for post-Uhuru positions, jobs, tenders, promotion. You can bet half his cabinet are not in office but campaigning.

Remember how we wasted a lot of time trying to convince Pundit that Ruto and Ouru were done and that RAO was not being played?  Ruto made a terrible blunder trying to humiliate his boss in his bedroom.  It was a waste of money but understandable when he tried to humiliate RAO in Kibera.  But trying and succeeding in winning in Kiambaa was plain dumb. Ouru is still armed with power and this is Africa. In the end, Kiambaa will cost him more than he gained from it. If you want to humiliate, someone, wait until they do not have the power, means and weapons to get back to you. Watch this space-Ouru will have the last laugh on this one.  Human beings do not forget who and where they were humiliated.  Actually its better to kill someone rather than humiliate them and give them a chance to revenge.  Also, be very worried when you humiliate someone and they do not say anything.

[RV Pundit]

50 percent of Mt Kenya is enough for Ruto to win. It get him to 44 percent - just needing 6 percent to nail it - and he can get 2-3 percent by improving kalenjin registration/turnout - and 2-3 percent by improving his votes in other parts of the country.

Ruto will do better than Uhuru did in Non-GEMA because he is not a kenyatta who has stolen land nor a kikuyu - so he will do better in Turkana, West Pokot, Western, Coast,NEP - and maybe same level in Ukambani and Gusii like Jubilee did. Those extra votes will fill any void in GEMA.

It almost impossible for Ruto to lose 2022.

Power is taken sometimes and sometimes given-mostly given.  You can only take something  if you can.   The way Ruto has dropped-ataweza Kweli even if you give him 50% of Mt. Kenya?  I can't wait to read the spin you will come up with when the evidence becomes overwhelming that Ruto will not be the fifth PORK.

[Nefertiti]

If Duale left Ruto you would tell us he is a nobody with 10k votes in Dujis. Ati Ruto does not need Kuria or Kiunjuris - so when is he unveiling Kalonzo as his DPORK? PEP had to STEP DOWN for UDA to win by mere 500 votes - after 60% PEP margin in Juja. They still lost Muguga. At least Raila knows to work with Uhuru and let Gema sort their own mess - that not his job - after Kalenjin lesson.

What I predict in Gema: UDA will break - Kiunjuri or Kuria likely to leave once Ruto picks either or a different person as runningmate. These people are not there to annoint Ruto but for their own ambitions.

Uhuru has not annointed a Kikuyu successor - smart move - I see Munya throwing tantrums over Muturi envy. Whoever of the UDA crew leaves Ruto - will be offered a lofty perch. PK seems to be recovering from covid and has totally failed to impress.

I thought we agreed with your 50 percent:)
I guess we need to reduce that to zero percent
Ruto we know has 90 percent of Mt kenya.

And Ruto support in Mt kenya is DIRECT INJECTION.

It not through Kuria or Kiunjuri.

Big difference. Ruto doesnt need any of them - they are part of large team - Meru team alone is huge - Embu huge - Central huge - Diaspoara huge.

Ruto has not entered into any alliance and UDA is right inside mt kenya.

It Moses Kuria and Kiunjuri who are trying to keep their hopes alive but KIambaa changed everything.

Ruto will fry them like chapati...it will be UDA all through...mt Kenya do not want other parties.

That was the most important milestone in Kiambaa - as you concentrated on 50 percent.

it was direct acceptance of Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Yes of course NEP - if you saw my calculation bring in 2 percent. Max of 3 percent. So Duale is important but for other reasons. This is more like pastoral kinship They love cows like we do.

As regard to TSP (tissue paper), and new party of Moses Kuria (Chama cha Kazi) - I dont see how they will survive UDA rollercoaster that Ruto is laying in Mt kenya.

As you read - already 80,000 of my inlaws in Embu are already UDA.

The biggest break for UDA was Kiambaa.

In short Ruto 2016 gamble to strongly couple in Jubilee is paying off.

Those hoping to go back to period of URP-TNA (like Moses Kuria) will be lonely and forgotten by december.

But they will become useful in April - after UDA nomination - because many loses in UDA will need Ruto friendly parties.

If Duale left Ruto you would tell us he is a nobody with 10k votes in Dujis. Ati Ruto does not need Kuria or Kiunjuris - so when is he unveiling Kalonzo as his DPORK? At least Raila knows to work with Uhuru and let Gema sort their own mess - that not his job - after Kalenjin lesson.

What I predict in Gema: UDA will break - Kiunjuri or Kuria likely to leave once Ruto picks either or a different person as runningmate. These people are not there to annoint Ruto but for their own ambitions.

Uhuru has not annointed a Kikuyu successor - smart move - I see Munya throwing tantrums over Muturi envy. Whoever of the UDA crew leaves Ruto - will be offered a lofty perch. PK seems to be recovering from covid and has totally failed to impress.

[Nefertiti]

Last I checked Roba and the entire Mandera clan joined Handshake. That is what matters - there is no Kenyatta baggage outside Kalenjin and Pwani.

After Jubilee peak - Ruto is starting again with new party. That is big loss not a gain. That 44% is voodoo.

50 percent of Mt Kenya is enough for Ruto to win. It get him to 44 percent - just needing 6 percent to nail it - and he can get 2-3 percent by improving kalenjin registration/turnout - and 2-3 percent by improving his votes in other parts of the country.

Ruto will do better than Uhuru did in Non-GEMA because he is not a kenyatta who has stolen land nor a kikuyu - so he will do better in Turkana, West Pokot, Western, Coast,NEP - and maybe same level in Ukambani and Gusii like Jubilee did. Those extra votes will fill any void in GEMA.

It almost impossible for Ruto to lose 2022.

[RV Pundit]

You seem to give a lot of premium to governors - whom thanks to Mumbi bad judgement - made them worse than DCs - security of tenure wise - and have to ask harambee house how high they can jump.

Wait until governors show you their true colors. And Mandera is not Roba.

All Somalis are under Ruto for one reason - Uhuru attempt to do 1M1S and BBI - I think you saw in the opinion poll they are most opposed to BBI.

Do not use scared governors as political indicator - unless you do not want to face reality.

Which essentially is the issue you - YOU DO NOT WANT TO ACCEPT Reality.

44 percent we did as WORSE CASE scenario with RUto scoring 50 percent of GEMA, zero percent in Ukambani and Luo Nyanza, almost zero percent in Luhya land, except for few votes, 60 percent of Somalis-Boranas, 30 percent of coast/gusii, 70 percent of Matusa and 98 percent of Kalenjin - but maybe we can give gideon something more

HOW LOW DO YOU WANT TO GO -  Tell me the percentages; and I will tell you how much Ruto will go down.

Ruto is impossible to BEAT UNLESS HE LOSES GEMA - and it would take a gigantic screw up for him to do that now.

Uhuru struggled in many areas that Ruto will do better - start in RV -
1) MATUSA generally voted against Uhuru (kalenjin and kikuyu diaspora was helping hide the figures) - they went 70 percent almost in turkana and maasai for Raila - and 30 percent for Uhuru.
2) Pokot -gave Raila almost 30 percent.
3) Coast - mijikenda gave uhuru - something like 15 percent - they do not like Jomo kenyatta there
4) Luhyas hated Uhuru - 2013 - Uhuru scored 5 percent or less of Luhya votes.
5) The Somalis-Borana were generally 60-40 - almost unsure.

Those few areas Ruto will improve in

But Uhuru did well in Gusii - who do not have the anti-kikuyu vibe. If Matiangi had grown wings - it would have been problems. But we know Matiangi poltiical wings were clipped in Borabu.

Kambas and Luos obviously did not vote for Jubilee - but Jubilee tried in Ukambani (?)

Last I checked Roba and the entire Mandera clan joined Handshake. That is what matters - there is no Kenyatta baggage outside Kalenjin and Pwani.

After Jubilee peak - Ruto is starting again with new party. That is big loss not a gain. That 44% is voodoo.

[RV Pundit]

Robina study this article
https://medium.com/@DataSciencing/kenya-votes-543311f517c9

You can see the trends that will carry Ruto without 100 percent of GEMA support. Ruto has been working hard since 2013 to flip many pro-Raila region to Jubilee and its working.

Remember Moi use to score 40 percent - without single Kikuyu, Luo, few Luhyas and few kambas votes. This was Ruto plan B - now Plan C.

In 2017 - Raila was hemorrhaging the Moi constituency that he inherited in 2002-2005.

Compared to 2013.

There was evident decrease in support among some counties such as Kisii, Turkana, Nyamira, Tana River, Samburu, Narok, and Wajir. The largest decrease in support was in Marsabit County from 48.78% to 14.44%.

[GeeMail]

Moi elections were mostly stolen in broad daylight. Either you're mistaken or you want to show how Ruto is such a Moi student like he has been since 2013.

[RV Pundit]

It generally reflected the will of people. Did Jaramogi have any support in Vihiga? Or Maasai? or Turkana? or North Eastern? of course not.

If MOi was rigging - why didnt he not rig some votes in Luo Nyanza, Kikuyu, Kamba and such opposition zones like say Bukusu? Why allow himself to get zero?

The same KANU support base is what has kept Raila afloat for 20yrs - although he has been unable to convert it into a win.

Ruto is now taking that KANU supportbase back and adding GEMA

Meaning it impossible to beat WSR

Moi elections were mostly stolen in broad daylight. Either you're mistaken or you want to show how Ruto is such a Moi student like he has been since 2013.