High court to rule on BBI this Thursday

[RV Pundit]

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https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-05-11-high-court-to-rule-on-anti-bbi-petitions-on-thursday/

[Nefertiti]

Your legally incoherent behind is about to be exposed. At least you will still have the "Ruto is wildly popular in Gema" straw.

[KenyanPlato]

Punditry is reduced to kalenjin nationalism jingoism and posturing.

[RV Pundit]

Judiciary can self-immolate; Let's see if they will sacrifice themselves for Raila.

Your legally incoherent behind is about to be exposed. At least you will still have the "Ruto is wildly popular in Gema" straw.

[RV Pundit]

Robina - do you have post-BBI life? This is assuming high court tomorrow rules that BBI is dead. How do we proceed from here?

If high court okays BBI - we go for referendum - and our constitution get so multilated it becomes a mess - and worse it undoes all the constitutional gains.

My expectation
1) High court will rule that BBI be put in ice until parliament enact laws to guide the process.
2) High court will issues advisory on what such a law should address....for example you don't expect the "People" to draft a constitutional bill - without the help of says Kenya Law Reform (KLR) - whose job is to ensure we don't end up with BBI mess - huge document containing policies, manifestos, white papers and name it.

[Nefertiti]

Robina - do you have post-BBI life? This is assuming high court tomorrow rules that BBI is dead. How do we proceed from here?

I don't see that happening. I don't need to read long petitions by Ndii - case after case against BBI has been lost. Basic structure and all 8 cases are flimsy attempts to circumvent Wanjiku like some MPs just attempted and failed. The judges will say: if this amendment is so dangerous for Kenya, hit the campaign trail and convince them to vote No. Judges will not supplant democracy.

Now: if the judges kill BBI? Small chance for CoA to overturn such ruling, and it would indeed die. Resurrection by correcting the mistakes would undermine it big first, and second too little time to correct.

As I expect: judges dismiss petitions with cost, Ndiis run to CoA - which takes few more months. By Dec - SCORK - Uhuru-Raila declare it too late and decide on 22-combo to save 14B for youths. This is the plan. The IEBC and Chebukati degazetting the albino Isaac Mwaura at midnight cannot save you.

[Nefertiti]

Well Pundit, IFF BBI is killed by the courts, Raila chances will tank as Ruto becomes unassailable. Akin to 2017 October. One Kenya hyenas - Kalonzos, Mdvds - are in it for the BBI posts not any patriotism. Big, fat if.

Some Tangatangas dream that Uhuru might use BBI to claim his term starts afresh - ala Moi 1992 - but I think Uhuru is smart enough to see that won't work. He will not even try impose a Gema - which one now? - or a Matiang'i. Raila-Ruto coalition would plunge Kenya back to 2007-8 chaos. I see Uhuru just pocketing BBI goodies as his Gema legacy and endorse Raila-BBI lineup to crash Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Well, we shall see tomorrow. Personally my hopes are high that BBI will put on the brakes and possibly killed. By time judges ruled the 8 petitions raised weighty issues - then they are weight issues - then be prepared for anything. Secondly the judges do not like amendment that will affect their jobs in 3 months time. Do not think judiciary has no say in this - in fact during CJ interviews - nearly all of them were opposed to BBI. Finally likes of Odunga promotion were already blocked by Uhuru and so this is payback time.

So while you're planning for 2022 election with Ruto in mind -there are people who will be affected by BBI immediately it passes - judiciary - judges being the biggest losers.  JSC will have powers to suspend them taking away security of tenure...and Ombudsman will be all over them collecting all manners of allegations against them.

If high court rules BBI is okay - Uhuru will sign BBI into law by midnight tomorrow - and will try to circumvent any appeal. It will be terrible news for Kenya - if you're a progressive like me.

The problem with waiting for 2022 - you won't get the 70 constituencies - which main selling point for BBI. So forget your own self-delusion. BBI deadline is August - otherwise any boundary delamination one year to election - are outlawed by the constitution.

I don't see that happening. I don't need to read long petitions by Ndii - case after case against BBI has been lost. Basic structure and all 8 cases are flimsy attempts to circumvent Wanjiku like some MPs just attempted and failed. The judges will say: if this amendment is so dangerous for Kenya, hit the campaign trail and convince them to vote No. Judges will not supplant democracy.

Now: if the judges kill BBI? Small chance for CoA to overturn such ruling, and it would indeed die. Resurrection by correcting the mistakes would undermine it big first, and second too little time to correct.

As I expect: judges dismiss petitions with cost, Ndiis run to CoA - which takes few more months. By Dec - SCORK - Uhuru-Raila declare it too late and decide on 22-combo to save 14B for youths. This is the plan. The IEBC and Chebukati degazetting the albino Isaac Mwaura at midnight cannot save you.

[RV Pundit]

I bet Raila and Uhuru are walking the phones - threatening judges like Odunga - not to do that.
I don't think anything changes.
Uhuru will play his games - but will gema people go onboard.
I honestly cannot tell Uhuru game-plan here - I know for sure he will retire - and I don't buy the 3rd time.
I don't buy that Uhuru will EVER support Raila for PORK.
It easy for him to reconcile with Ruto - than to support Raila for PORK.
The kenya elite fear Raila...GEMA have serious phobia on Raila and Luos.

Well Pundit, IFF BBI is killed by the courts, Raila chances will tank as Ruto becomes unassailable. Akin to 2017 October. One Kenya hyenas - Kalonzos, Mdvds - are in it for the BBI posts not any patriotism. Big, fat if.

Some Tangatangas dream that Uhuru might use BBI to claim his term starts afresh - ala Moi 1992 - but I think Uhuru is smart enough to see that won't work. He will not even try impose a Gema - which one now? - or a Matiang'i. Raila-Ruto coalition would plunge Kenya back to 2007-8 chaos. I see Uhuru just pocketing BBI goodies as his Gema legacy and endorse Raila-BBI lineup to crash Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Robina - do you have post-BBI life? This is assuming high court tomorrow rules that BBI is dead. How do we proceed from here?

If high court okays BBI - we go for referendum - and our constitution get so multilated it becomes a mess - and worse it undoes all the constitutional gains.

My expectation
1) High court will rule that BBI be put in ice until parliament enact laws to guide the process.
2) High court will issues advisory on what such a law should address....for example you don't expect the "People" to draft a constitutional bill - without the help of says Kenya Law Reform (KLR) - whose job is to ensure we don't end up with BBI mess - huge document containing policies, manifestos, white papers and name it.

I see. If high court "puts BBI on ice" - that is same as killing it - and Ruto becomes unassailable again. But high court will not do that... precedent? 2005-10 there were guidelines in the draft bills themselves, not in a separate law which would still be in the books.

About BBI mutilating the katiba 2010 bla bla, that clearly a matter of opinion. BBI is Bomas + CoE Drafts minus regions. It is what majority of Kenyans want. Hold a referendum now and see - Wanjikus will split just like MPs. It why Ruto is watermelon.

Personally I am very happy with 35%, hybrid, the gender formula of only top losing candidates nominated - plus capped at 15 years or 3 terms. I don't believe in freeloading forever - if Kenyans don't vote women so be it. I had issues with regional 3rd tier which is gone thank goodness. Kenyans also rejected pure parliamentary and am okay with that.

Don't cry Ruto can still win  if Ngugi and judges ignore the law. Tough luck.

[RV Pundit]

Robina, why has parliament NOT passed referendum law? The reality is we have these 12 petitions because there is no law guiding the process. The constitution contains the big picture...the details parliament were supposed to fill in...by describing all these issues.

Why has Uhuru and Raila not covered that base.

High court judges (or any judge) do not want BBI (not unless they are idiots) - and for me - it is for them to look for the best excuse to kill it.

And it's to blame parliament for failing to enact the referendum law.

We end up with process where nobody is sure, where gov is playing under hand, and all the games.

Parliament need to take the next six months to pass the referendum bill    - and BBI can collect the signatures again.

I see. If high court "puts BBI on ice" - that is same as killing it - and Ruto becomes unassailable again. But high court will not do that... precedent? 2005-10 there were guidelines in the draft bills themselves, not in a separate law which would still be in the books.

About BBI mutilating the katiba 2010 bla bla, that clearly a matter of opinion. BBI is Bomas + CoE Drafts minus regions. It is what majority of Kenyans want. Hold a referendum now and see - Wanjikus will split just like MPs. It why Ruto is watermelon.

Personally I am very happy with 35%, hybrid, the gender formula of only top losing candidates nominated - plus capped at 15 years or 3 terms. I don't believe in freeloading forever - if Kenyans don't vote women so be it. I had issues with regional 3rd tier which is gone thank goodness. Kenyans also rejected pure parliamentary and am okay with that.

Don't cry Ruto can still win  if Ngugi and judges ignore the law. Tough luck.

[Nefertiti]

Judges are not politicians. They rule on the law, facts, precedent. They don't care about Raila or Ruto - they even issue orders directly against Uhuru or Matiang'i despite getting ignored. They are professional - not like MPs. We shall see. 

Well, we shall see tomorrow. Personally my hopes are high that BBI will put on the brakes and possibly killed. By time judges ruled the 8 petitions raised weighty issues - then they are weight issues - then be prepared for anything. Secondly the judges do not like amendment that will affect their jobs in 3 months time. Do not think judiciary has no say in this - in fact during CJ interviews - nearly all of them were opposed to BBI. Finally likes of Odunga promotion were already blocked by Uhuru and so this is payback time.

Ombudsman is not that powerful as you claim. CJ chairs JSC with other judges and will be Ombudsman boss - decide whether or not to act on the report. This is actually just accountability for independent judiciary. Otherwise presently you cannot report deliberately delayed cases or such misconduct easily.

So while you're planning for 2022 election with Ruto in mind -there are people who will be affected by BBI immediately it passes - judiciary - judges being the biggest losers.  JSC will have powers to suspend them taking away security of tenure...and Ombudsman will be all over them collecting all manners of allegations against them.

Nope - Uhuru must ask IEBC to conduct referendum first. There is no panya route to declare some clauses as already passed - those are Tangatanga lies to scare ODM. Tumesoma - a bill is either popular or parliamentary but not both. The MPs 2/3 yes vote was great optics but not binding on any part of the bill.

If high court rules BBI is okay - Uhuru will sign BBI into law by midnight tomorrow - and will try to circumvent any appeal. It will be terrible news for Kenya - if you're a progressive like me.

Yes - 2022 combo means 70 new seats will be 2027 if ever. But 1M1S revenue, hybrid, 35%, gender, nomination by total votes are already there. If BBI lineup sticks Raila will need less of Gema than Ruto.

The problem with waiting for 2022 - you won't get the 70 constituencies - which main selling point for BBI. So forget your own self-delusion. BBI deadline is August - otherwise any boundary delamination one year to election - are outlawed by the constitution.

[RV Pundit]

Judges=Lawyers. The rest are details. BBI targets judiciary. JSC have been given powers to suspend judges and Ombusdman is now constitutional body - appointed by president - and will be collecting and coming up with findings - which will have many serious implications.

BBI tried to appease everyone - bribed MCAs with 2 millons - MPs to be ministers - but forget the judiciary.

Anyway I think we wait for tomorrow afternoon. You never saw the Judiciary coming....it could be Ruto ace

Judges are not politicians. They rule on the law, facts, precedent. They don't care about Raila or Ruto - they even issue orders directly against Uhuru or Matiang'i despite getting ignored. They are professional - not like MPs. We shall see. 

Well, we shall see tomorrow. Personally my hopes are high that BBI will put on the brakes and possibly killed. By time judges ruled the 8 petitions raised weighty issues - then they are weight issues - then be prepared for anything. Secondly the judges do not like amendment that will affect their jobs in 3 months time. Do not think judiciary has no say in this - in fact during CJ interviews - nearly all of them were opposed to BBI. Finally likes of Odunga promotion were already blocked by Uhuru and so this is payback time.

Ombudsman is not that powerful as you claim. CJ chairs JSC with other judges and will be Ombudsman boss - decide whether or not to act on the report. This is actually just accountability for independent judiciary. Otherwise presently you cannot report deliberately delayed cases or such misconduct easily.

So while you're planning for 2022 election with Ruto in mind -there are people who will be affected by BBI immediately it passes - judiciary - judges being the biggest losers.  JSC will have powers to suspend them taking away security of tenure...and Ombudsman will be all over them collecting all manners of allegations against them.

Nope - Uhuru must ask IEBC to conduct referendum first. There is no panya route to declare some clauses as already passed - those are Tangatanga lies to scare ODM. Tumesoma - a bill is either popular or parliamentary but not both. The MPs 2/3 yes vote was great optics but not binding on any part of the bill.

If high court rules BBI is okay - Uhuru will sign BBI into law by midnight tomorrow - and will try to circumvent any appeal. It will be terrible news for Kenya - if you're a progressive like me.

Yes - 2022 combo means 70 new seats will be 2027 if ever. But 1M1S revenue, hybrid, 35%, gender, nomination by total votes are already there. If BBI lineup sticks Raila will need less of Gema than Ruto.

The problem with waiting for 2022 - you won't get the 70 constituencies - which main selling point for BBI. So forget your own self-delusion. BBI deadline is August - otherwise any boundary delamination one year to election - are outlawed by the constitution.

[Nefertiti]

There was no referendum law in 2005, 2010. The process was in the Bomas/Kilifi/Wako and CoE/Naivasha Draft Bills themselves as addenda. Further CoK2010 is very clear on the amendment process for fear of mischief. The basic areas are very well covered in katiba.

Say popular vs parliamentary definition? Clear as day vs night. You are conflating Ndii or Karua verbose sour grapes with reality. Omtatas will always run to court whether you have a law or not. You see pre-2013 - MPs refused to pass campaign finance law and that did not stop the elections.

Stuff like Ndii's "basic structure" - delusional nonsense - does he mean to say BoR or 3arms structure is sacrosanct and Kenyans cannot amend it  That is such a self-defeating argument. Kenyans can decide to have 4 or 5 or whatever structure - so long as it passes by majority - Ndii and his ivory tower ideologues can only make noise.

To sum my diatribe: referendum law is not necessary. I don;t even need to confirm that CoK2010 does not even mention it by name. Just "parliament shall enact necessary legislation to effect this chapter."

Robina, why has parliament NOT passed referendum law? The reality is we have these 12 petitions because there is no law guiding the process. The constitution contains the big picture...the details parliament were supposed to fill in...by describing all these issues.

Why has Uhuru and Raila not covered that base.

High court judges (or any judge) do not want BBI (not unless they are idiots) - and for me - it is for them to look for the best excuse to kill it.

And it's to blame parliament for failing to enact the referendum law.

We end up with process where nobody is sure, where gov is playing under hand, and all the games.

Parliament need to take the next six months to pass the referendum bill    - and BBI can collect the signatures again.

[Nowayhaha]

[Nefertiti]

Usual excuses to explain away defeat. The cases will be tossed because they are flimsy not phone calls.

Uhuru plan: Uhuru is Gema King so I don't get how "Gema fear Raila" or trust Ruto. They speak daily though their actions to scorn Ruto. Just yesterday and last week they voted majority to pass BBI. Only few Nyoros and Kindiki voted No. Kang'ata was abit of a surprise. Simple: Uhuru and Gema elite don't want Ruto to be PORK so they are undermining him big by inducing their folks to dump him.

If 3rd term rumor was to happen, Ruto would have no choice but to back Raila - and hope to be toshwad in 2027 Otherwise the reality now is Raila has the upper hand as his BBI baby near reality.

I bet Raila and Uhuru are walking the phones - threatening judges like Odunga - not to do that.
I don't think anything changes.
Uhuru will play his games - but will gema people go onboard.
I honestly cannot tell Uhuru game-plan here - I know for sure he will retire - and I don't buy the 3rd time.
I don't buy that Uhuru will EVER support Raila for PORK.
It easy for him to reconcile with Ruto - than to support Raila for PORK.
The kenya elite fear Raila...GEMA have serious phobia on Raila and Luos.

[RV Pundit]

2005/2010 - were overhauling the constitution. You don't quite get it.
BBi is amending the constitution using popular initiative without any legistlation to guide it.
The result - we have 8-12 cases - meaning it's not clear.
It's not clear what popular initiative is and who can initiate it - that is not part of Ndii suggestion.
Can gov for example initiative popular initiative or should they go through parliament?
Can gov uses prov administration to collect signatures? How much of those signatures would procured in free and willing manner?
How is MCAs suppose to deal with it.
How is IEBC suppose to verify sigantures? Parliament need to guide IEBC how to verify this? Maybe publish signatures for 2 months ? Otherwise IEBC ended up creating their own processes.
How is parliament suppose to deal with such bills? Can they ammend it - Can they do editorial editing?
Bla bla.

In short judiciary will not answer these questions but will kick the ball to parliament to enact the law.

There was no referendum law in 2005, 2010. The process was in the Bomas/Kilifi/Wako and CoE/Naivasha Draft Bills themselves as addenda. Further CoK2010 is very clear on the amendment process for fear of mischief. The basic areas are very well covered in katiba.

Say popular vs parliamentary definition? Clear as day vs night. You are conflating Ndii or Karua verbose sour grapes with reality. Omtatas will always run to court whether you have a law or not. You see pre-2013 - MPs refused to pass campaign finance law and that did not stop the elections.

Stuff like Ndii's "basic structure" - delusional nonsense - does he mean to say BoR or 3arms structure is sacrosanct and Kenyans cannot amend it  That is such a self-defeating argument. Kenyans can decide to have 4 or 5 or whatever structure - so long as it passes by majority - Ndii and his ivory tower ideologues can only make noise.

To sum my diatribe: referendum law is not necessary. I don;t even need to confirm that CoK2010 does not even mention it by name. Just "parliament shall enact necessary legislation to effect this chapter."

Robina, why has parliament NOT passed referendum law? The reality is we have these 12 petitions because there is no law guiding the process. The constitution contains the big picture...the details parliament were supposed to fill in...by describing all these issues.

Why has Uhuru and Raila not covered that base.

High court judges (or any judge) do not want BBI (not unless they are idiots) - and for me - it is for them to look for the best excuse to kill it.

And it's to blame parliament for failing to enact the referendum law.

We end up with process where nobody is sure, where gov is playing under hand, and all the games.

Parliament need to take the next six months to pass the referendum bill    - and BBI can collect the signatures again.

[RV Pundit]

You're not privy to Uhuru's plan. Politics has intrigues. It's not what you see is what you get. You may be surprised that Uhuru and Ruto do talk either directly or through emissaries. How did Raila ended up doing the handshake with Uhuru - when Uhuru used to hate Raila.

Your what you is what you get is POLITICAL NAIVETY

Usual excuses to explain away defeat. The cases will be tossed because they are flimsy not phone calls.

Uhuru plan: Uhuru is Gema King so I don't get how "Gema fear Raila" or trust Ruto. They speak daily though their actions to scorn Ruto. Just yesterday and last week they voted majority to pass BBI. Only few Nyoros and Kindiki voted No. Kang'ata was abit of a surprise. Simple: Uhuru and Gema elite don't want Ruto to be PORK so they are undermining him big by inducing their folks to dump him.

If 3rd term rumor was to happen, Ruto would have no choice but to back Raila - and hope to be toshwad in 2027 Otherwise the reality now is Raila has the upper hand as his BBI baby near reality.

I bet Raila and Uhuru are walking the phones - threatening judges like Odunga - not to do that.
I don't think anything changes.
Uhuru will play his games - but will gema people go onboard.
I honestly cannot tell Uhuru game-plan here - I know for sure he will retire - and I don't buy the 3rd time.
I don't buy that Uhuru will EVER support Raila for PORK.
It easy for him to reconcile with Ruto - than to support Raila for PORK.
The kenya elite fear Raila...GEMA have serious phobia on Raila and Luos.

[RV Pundit]

Robina....these the issues under consideration...BBI has to JUMP ALL THESE 17 HURDLES .   Prepare a burial ground for BBI.

http://kenyalaw.org/caselaw/cases/view/207503/

[Nefertiti]

If and buts. Conjecture. Guesswork. We have the news when it happens.

You're not privy to Uhuru's plan. Politics has intrigues. It's not what you see is what you get. You may be surprised that Uhuru and Ruto do talk either directly or through emissaries. How did Raila ended up doing the handshake with Uhuru - when Uhuru used to hate Raila.

Your what you is what you get is POLITICAL NAIVETY