No sir. Think about this. Public Sector. Private sector. Informal sector. Before Jubilee - we had private sector led growth - everyone including imf/wb - complained that we were running on one engine - hence growth of 4% (before the rebasing)- while some countries like Ethiopia had public sector firing.
Jubilee corrected that imbalance - and we started growing at 6% - although that growth it turned out was due to mostly agricultural production.
Now for me we need all the three engines firing. Public sector. Private Sector. Informal Sector.
How do you mainstream informal sector to be part of the economy? How we get informal sector to become MSMEs? Then when everyone is onboard - there is formal sector big enough - we can start applying those tools - of low taxes, regulation, fiscal policy?
If you go sector by sector...in financial...we are doing fine...there... in telcom...we are fine there...in retail and wholesaling...we are at 30-40% (spread of supermarkets)...you go to agriculture and livestock...HUGE MESS...totally informal except for few like KTDA...if you go to transport...there is been attempts at least on matatus....but zero on boda bodas?
Quick win.
1) Continue with the formalization of the retail and wholesaling sectors. Kill these plethoras of loss-making shops in every corner of Kenya - by having a few supermarkets - where people can buy everything cheaply.
2) Commercialize and formalize agriculture. We need more KTDAs or dairy sector. Something that can almost guarantee monthly payments to farmers. We need to organize our smallholder farmers into co-operatives and such.
3) Fix the transport sector..especially boda bodas and matatus...for example we can demand all boda boda belong to a SACCO...and assist those saccos...with finances and governances.
4) The same for the rest of the informal sectors. Look for example at all the mechanics and juakali on the road side...they need support from gov...they need to be organized into cooperatives...so they can buy better equipment, have safe environment and all that.
And that to me is the bottom up....going directly to the people operating boda bodas, juakali, mechanics, poor farmers...and mainstreaming them into the formal economy.
And most importantly encouraging the private sector to go to the bottom....like agency/mpesa did or KEG beer or name them. Find out why private sector are not reaching to informal sector and help fix that....if it mean deregulation do it...if it mean lowering taxes do it...but only for informal sector or bottom down products.
1. The opposite of supply side economics is demand side economics. The examples of keg,equity, cited are perfect example of supply side economics working. Government lowered taxes on keg, making it more affordable, thus creating a huge industry. Equity was a lowly building society before 2002, processing tea and coffee payments for farmers. What led to explosive growth was after kibaki government(David ndii working for anyang nyongo planning) stopped crowding out the private sector by Mwiraria reducing banks capital reserves and lowering interest rates. The banks started lending to individuals, SME etc and that's how equity capitalized on that by becoming banker to informal sector. Prudent fiscal policy led to growth of equity bank.
Demand side economics example universal electricity connections. This how you end up with almost 1m idle connections and kplc bankrupt. supply side dictates that addressing cost(supply side) would've been the right policy which would have led to demand.
2. The more apt diagnosis of kenya economic problem would be government led growth vs private sector led growth. Government led growth is what Jubilee embarked on which has landed us where we are. Borrowing, taxing and spending model end up in disastrous results. The good news is that kenya has reached an inflection point just as in 1993. There's no fiscal room or increased taxation to keep public led growth model going. So just like what musalia did( big bang economic reforms) is needed. Private sector( big, small and micro) led economic policy that ensures fiscal prudence, low taxation, deregulation, registration and decriminalization of small enterprises is what needed. Almost all presidential candidates will adopt some version of this cause its the only option available. The days of government led growth are over, government can't tax enough to keep it going or borrow.
This is why despite heady GDP numbers kenyans are poorer.