Learning about Induced demand the hardway

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

• Tweet

From a highway to the future to a traffic nightmare

Kenyans collectively breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Thika Superhighway was commissioned in November 2012. With between four and six lanes on either side, the nation’s most ambitious infrastructure project was a road ahead of its time. Travel time from Thika town to Nairobi dropped from two-to-three hours to half-an-hour. It set the stage towards a middle-income economy by 2030.

“The Nairobi-Thika superhighway is a national pride,” said President Kibaki. Today, the highway to the future has become a nightmare for motorists and commuters.

Five years ago, you could drive at free-flow speed from Ruiru to Ngara. Today, you can barely move during the rush hour. One of the worst sections is between Pangani and Junction 6 at the Survey of Kenya, a distance of 2.5km.

[RV Pundit]

Yes - let hope BRT will save thika road - but ultimately Kenya gov should give chinese 1-2Billion dollars to build a proper light rail or metro.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Yes - let hope BRT will save thika road - but ultimately Kenya gov should give chinese 1-2Billion dollars to build a proper light rail or metro.

Even better, build wide comfortable pedestrian and bicycle lanes. It would be dirt cheap compared to highway construction but the economic and social benefit would be huge. Remember distances are less than 5 miles for most places in Kenya. Think of the petrol savings the country would accrue if we ditch the automobile, the hard foreign exchange you would keep from ending up in Beijing, the health benefits. It is a low hanging fruit, if you want hustlernomics, this is it.

An image to show how the Fallowfield Loop could look if its was upgraded from a relatively narrow, unlit shared-use path, to one with separate paths for cycles and pedestrians. Along with a new buffer zone for plants and lighting.https://t.co/ONkDbu7Tiihttps://t.co/8qWP6Uhnfg pic.twitter.com/nhXh2HAGxO

— Infrastructure CGIs (@InfraCGI) March 26, 2021

?s=20

[RV Pundit]

We already have many poor people walking home;  from industrial area and such. They already transitioned into non-motorised transport for sure - coz transport is very expensive in Nairobi.
But middle class - that is another culture change - that won't happen soon.
MyCAR is not easy to leave behind.
And Nairobi is pretty congested - so we need SERIOUS MASS transport - metro or subway kind.

Nairobi has a lot of rivers - with a riparian reserves that can be converted into parks - with lanes for bicyles and walking - and this will be big hit for poor in slums and such areas. And then have NYS manning the whole of it - to ensure security. That will be ideal to deal with foot and bicycle trafffic.

It easy to create network of Non Motorised Transport along these rivers......and it touches the poor..who need no incentive to work home.

For example -Kibera resident should follow Mbagathi river all the way down to Industrial area - enjoying the breeze and nature - and far from hustling with cars and motorbikes.

Mathare -resident will also follow the river to Pangani.

Even better, build wide comfortable pedestrian and bicycle lanes. It would be dirt cheap compared to highway construction but the economic and social benefit would be huge. Remember distances are less than 5 miles for most places in Kenya. Think of the petrol savings the country would accrue if we ditch the automobile, the hard foreign exchange you would keep from ending up in Beijing, the health benefits. It is a low hanging fruit, if you want hustlernomics, this is it.

An image to show how the Fallowfield Loop could look if its was upgraded from a relatively narrow, unlit shared-use path, to one with separate paths for cycles and pedestrians. Along with a new buffer zone for plants and lighting.https://t.co/ONkDbu7Tiihttps://t.co/8qWP6Uhnfg pic.twitter.com/nhXh2HAGxO

— Infrastructure CGIs (@InfraCGI) March 26, 2021

?s=20

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

We already have many poor people walking home;  from industrial area and such. They already transitioned into non-motorised transport for sure - coz transport is very expensive in Nairobi.

Those are exactly the people you want to cater to: the underserved, forgotten, poor masses who don't have the option of paying fares let alone
own private vehicles . They are the majority, it would be more democratic if we catered to them first.

But middle class - that is another culture change - that won't happen soon.
MyCAR is not easy to leave behind.

They said the same about Bogota Colombia before its far sighted mayor built a network of bicycle lanes all over the city, they were wrong, middle class came out in throngs to use it. Look at Paris, or the Netherlands, all moving to non motorized modes of transport. Car centric model of transport is a dead end. We were conditioned to use cars, we can easily be de-conditioned to ditch it.

And Nairobi is pretty congested - so we need SERIOUS MASS transport - metro or subway kind.

All the more to prioritize non motorized transport because you can move the greatest volume of traffic through this mode.

Nairobi has a lot of rivers - with a riparian reserves that can be converted into parks - with lanes for bicyles and walking - and this will be big hit for poor in slums and such areas. And then have NYS manning the whole of it - to ensure security. That will be ideal to deal with foot and bicycle trafffic.

I can get behind this.

It easy to create network of Non Motorised Transport along these rivers......and it touches the poor..who need no incentive to work home.

For example -Kibera resident should follow Mbagathi river all the way down to Industrial area - enjoying the breeze and nature - and far from hustling with cars and motorbikes.

Mathare -resident will also follow the river to Pangani.

Absolutely! They are lots of excellent creative ideas we can use to to reach our goal of congestion free, pleasant city if we are not wedded to certain solutions. Our first reflexive answer to congestion shouldn't be more highways and a costly transit system. Let us think outside the box in short.

[RV Pundit]

You should join Hustler movement - where the bottom - slum dwellers - and such people are the core. Ruto has assembled great teams of brains. People who want to make a change.

I agree - Nairobi biggest stakeholder is the informal settlers - and they don't get anything. Gov invest BILLIONS in roads - but you still find Kangemi resident treking - kibera the same. They don't get to use that fancy road.

So yes I think NMS - NON MOTORIZED ROAD has good ideas - just need implementation.

I am not entirely sold on bicycles - because our city is just too chaotic for that. It almost suicidal to ride a bicyle in Nairobi.

Except for seperate roads - along the valleys and rivers of Nairobi - it will work - away from cars and matatus.

We already have many poor people walking home;  from industrial area and such. They already transitioned into non-motorised transport for sure - coz transport is very expensive in Nairobi.

Those are exactly the people you want to cater to: the underserved, forgotten, poor masses who don't have the option of paying fares let alone
own private vehicles . They are the majority, it would be more democratic if we catered to them first.

But middle class - that is another culture change - that won't happen soon.
MyCAR is not easy to leave behind.

They said the same about Bogota Colombia before its far sighted mayor built a network of bicycle lanes all over the city, they were wrong, middle class came out in throngs to use it. Look at Paris, or the Netherlands, all moving to non motorized modes of transport. Car centric model of transport is a dead end. We were conditioned to use cars, we can easily be de-conditioned to ditch it.

And Nairobi is pretty congested - so we need SERIOUS MASS transport - metro or subway kind.

All the more to prioritize non motorized transport because you can move the greatest volume of traffic through this mode.

Nairobi has a lot of rivers - with a riparian reserves that can be converted into parks - with lanes for bicyles and walking - and this will be big hit for poor in slums and such areas. And then have NYS manning the whole of it - to ensure security. That will be ideal to deal with foot and bicycle trafffic.

I can get behind this.

It easy to create network of Non Motorised Transport along these rivers......and it touches the poor..who need no incentive to work home.

For example -Kibera resident should follow Mbagathi river all the way down to Industrial area - enjoying the breeze and nature - and far from hustling with cars and motorbikes.

Mathare -resident will also follow the river to Pangani.

Absolutely! They are lots of excellent creative ideas we can use to to reach our goal of congestion free, pleasant city if we are not wedded to certain solutions. Our first reflexive answer to congestion shouldn't be more highways and a costly transit system. Let us think outside the box in short.

[GeeMail]

We already have many poor people walking home;  from industrial area and such. They already transitioned into non-motorised transport for sure - coz transport is very expensive in Nairobi.
But middle class - that is another culture change - that won't happen soon.
MyCAR is not easy to leave behind.
And Nairobi is pretty congested - so we need SERIOUS MASS transport - metro or subway kind.

Nairobi has a lot of rivers - with a riparian reserves that can be converted into parks - with lanes for bicyles and walking - and this will be big hit for poor in slums and such areas. And then have NYS manning the whole of it - to ensure security. That will be ideal to deal with foot and bicycle trafffic.

It easy to create network of Non Motorised Transport along these rivers......and it touches the poor..who need no incentive to work home.

For example -Kibera resident should follow Mbagathi river all the way down to Industrial area - enjoying the breeze and nature - and far from hustling with cars and motorbikes.

Mathare -resident will also follow the river to Pangani.

Even better, build wide comfortable pedestrian and bicycle lanes. It would be dirt cheap compared to highway construction but the economic and social benefit would be huge. Remember distances are less than 5 miles for most places in Kenya. Think of the petrol savings the country would accrue if we ditch the automobile, the hard foreign exchange you would keep from ending up in Beijing, the health benefits. It is a low hanging fruit, if you want hustlernomics, this is it.

An image to show how the Fallowfield Loop could look if its was upgraded from a relatively narrow, unlit shared-use path, to one with separate paths for cycles and pedestrians. Along with a new buffer zone for plants and lighting.https://t.co/ONkDbu7Tiihttps://t.co/8qWP6Uhnfg pic.twitter.com/nhXh2HAGxO

— Infrastructure CGIs (@InfraCGI) March 26, 2021

?s=20

A lot of Kiberians already follow that route to Industrial Area every day. Industrial Area is dying. Ghost town most places. If the current regime cannot make industry work for them to change their lives, making a new route will change nothing.

[RV Pundit]

Industrial action is moving to Ruiru, Mlolongo and such places. Kibra people will services the office blocks of Kilimani-Upperhill - and Nairobi's informal industries.

A lot of Kiberians already follow that route to Industrial Area every day. Industrial Area is dying. Ghost town most places. If the current regime cannot make industry work for them to change their lives, making a new route will change nothing.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

You should join Hustler movement - where the bottom - slum dwellers - and such people are the core. Ruto has assembled great teams of brains. People who want to make a change.

I want to see the pledges from Jubilee first term manifesto fulfilled before I can join 

I agree - Nairobi biggest stakeholder is the informal settlers - and they don't get anything. Gov invest BILLIONS in roads - but you still find Kangemi resident treking - kibera the same. They don't get to use that fancy road.

So yes I think NMS - NON MOTORIZED ROAD has good ideas - just need implementation.

You are getting it. In this country we are catering to 10% at most of the population that own private vehicles in our transport policy at the expense of the other 90% who don't. It is just dumb, aside from equity and fairness question, if you want to grow your economy you have to include as much of your people in it. Let us treat all road users equally.

I am not entirely sold on bicycles - because our city is just too chaotic for that. It almost suicidal to ride a bicyle in Nairobi
Except for seperate roads - along the valleys and rivers of Nairobi - it will work - away from cars and matatus.

That is it, it is referred to as unravelling of modes in bicycling circles,

Cyclists have more direct, safe and pleasant journeys if their routes are separated from the routes taken by drivers. cycle-routes are mostly quite separate from driving routes. By this I don't only mean that cycle-paths run alongside the roads, but that the routes themselves are different. It is increasingly common in the Netherlands that cycling and driving routes are unravelled from one another.