Noway can you predict Machakos?

[Nefertiti]

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I know you are a spineless wimp... but you can attempt to be a real analyst today. Instead of going MIA then masquerading as an expert once the results are in. Will Muthama wring the hustlers or is tribe still king?

[RV Pundit]

Kavindu will win. For Muthama and Ruto to win - they need to exceed 17% Jubilee got.

If Ngelengele therefore takes 30% - he would have doubled Jubilee - and UDA would have made significant inroads.

[Nefertiti]

Haha 60-30 is still a dog-beating with Muthama cash and bile. Anyway this will be a continuation of UDA string of losses. Wheelbarrow appeal start and end in Kalenjin and few pockets - not even URP zones like Garissa. Ruto might be back to the drawing board if UDA become stillborn.

[RV Pundit]

Hustler Nation has forced all opposition and gov to unite  - and promote tribalism. That is how powerful it is - that Uhuru running gov - has rallied the entire opposition to stop it.

Muthama is big asset to Ruto. If he brings in 30% - Ruto would have won.
Just like Ruto won in Kibra -

But of course for naive person like you - you see battles - and you don't see the war!!!!!!!

Right now it easy for them to balkanize the country into tribal enclaves..but come 2022 - they will have deal with who HEADS the ticket and the fallout.

Haha 60-30 is still a dog-beating with Muthama cash and bile. Anyway this will be a continuation of UDA string of losses. Wheelbarrow appeal start and end in Kalenjin and few pockets - not even URP zones like Garissa. Ruto might be back to the drawing board if UDA become stillborn.

[Nefertiti]

30% is a fair shot - but a loss is a loss and bad optics. It tough to convince anyone that hustler anthem is popular now in places like Bukusu or Gusii after the rout.

The bug in your BBI analysis is you give all credit to Uhuru and not Raila. Uhuru anaenda Gatundu - but senile Babu poisoned him and entire machinery against Ruto. The success of tribalism over class is the real war that Ruto is losing bad. It is why he is watermelon - because he has nothing to offer Kalonzos without BBI. Raila can scorn them but they still hold BBI zoom with him.

You should worry about Ruto conundrum - the difficulty to turn from BBI naysayer to yes - he is stuck at watermelon.

Hustler Nation has forced all opposition and gov to unite  - and promote tribalism. That is how powerful it is - that Uhuru running gov - has rallied the entire opposition to stop it.

Muthama is big asset to Ruto. If he brings in 30% - Ruto would have won.
Just like Ruto won in Kibra -

But of course for naive person like you - you see battles - and you don't see the war!!!!!!!

Right now it easy for them to balkanize the country into tribal enclaves..but come 2022 - they will have deal with who HEADS the ticket and the fallout.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto doesn't need BBI  - just like Uhuru didn't need BBI to win twice. Uhuru is trying to throw the ladder away.

BBI is critical for NASA brigade.

For Ruto - Jubilee coalition has the winning formulae - combine RV+GEMA - and few tops up - you're 50% plus one.

That is why Ruto is not keen on BBI - because he settled on running RV+GEMA coalition.

Now if BBI doesn't happen - before 2022 - it will be just like 2013/2017 - with NASA brigade promising each other non-existent positions.

Hustler Nation is good cover for Kalenjin/Kikuyu ball game.

30% is a fair shot - but a loss is a loss and bad optics. It tough to convince anyone that hustler anthem is popular now in places like Bukusu or Gusii after the rout.

The bug in your BBI analysis is you give all credit to Uhuru and not Raila. Uhuru anaenda Gatundu - but senile Babu poisoned him and entire machinery against Ruto. The success of tribalism over class is the real war that Ruto is losing bad. It is why he is watermelon - because he has nothing to offer Kalonzos without BBI. Raila can scorn them but they still hold BBI zoom with him.

You should worry about Ruto conundrum - the difficulty to turn from BBI naysayer to yes - he is stuck at watermelon.

Hustler Nation has forced all opposition and gov to unite  - and promote tribalism. That is how powerful it is - that Uhuru running gov - has rallied the entire opposition to stop it.

Muthama is big asset to Ruto. If he brings in 30% - Ruto would have won.
Just like Ruto won in Kibra -

But of course for naive person like you - you see battles - and you don't see the war!!!!!!!

Right now it easy for them to balkanize the country into tribal enclaves..but come 2022 - they will have deal with who HEADS the ticket and the fallout.

[Njuri Ncheke]

I wa against Ruto fielding candidates in western and ukambani am very well on record. I had stated simple ethnic nationalism whipping by the tribal kingpins would prevail. Hope you all remember.

[RV Pundit]

But by-election provide good test run for real election. It's a reality check that Ruto needs. Then he can approach 2022 knowing what works and what doesn't.

I wa against Ruto fielding candidates in western and ukambani am very well on record. I had stated simple ethnic nationalism whipping by the tribal kingpins would prevail. Hope you all remember.

[Njuri Ncheke]

But by-election provide good test run for real election. It's a reality check that Ruto needs. Then he can approach 2022 knowing what works and what doesn't.

I wa against Ruto fielding candidates in western and ukambani am very well on record. I had stated simple ethnic nationalism whipping by the tribal kingpins would prevail. Hope you all remember.

Thats school of thought leads to depletion of resources and popularity,this is politics where public perception means everything its not a scientific trial.Pundit just agree this was all bad and your advice has seriously failed,I am the only one who called these polls from the start accurately. At least Ruto is now listening to my advice and avoiding elections. Elections will just expose him for the deep state to analyze

[RV Pundit]

Well, you have a point, because Uhuru has become the NASA chief strategist, but that is part of the game. You have to adapt with time. I still believe the best defence is attack.

Remember Ruto himself has not campaigned or participated directly coz of Jubilee party complication.

So it good to test what say Muthama alone can deliver. He is already forced two Kambas to unite against UDA. That is already a win.

Thats school of thought leads to depletion of resources and popularity,this is politics where public perception means everything its not a scientific trial.Pundit just agree this was all bad and your advice has seriously failed,I am the only one who called these polls from the start accurately. At least Ruto is now listening to my advice and avoiding elections. Elections will just expose him for the deep state to analyze

[Nefertiti]

Njuri no we don't recall any such thing. What would avoiding the byelections achieve? UDA being upstart party needs to market itself out there - it is a risk worth taking. Of course it is turning out badly - we expected close matches in Bukusu, Gusii and Kamba.

Pundit - Ruto is watermelon because he needs to dish out PM/DPM/CS to win. But Raila has made it difficult to crossover by locking him out of the team. He does not have the clout on his own to pull Uhuruto numbers nor anything near Moi 40%. UDA I doubt reaches URP with mere 1 year to to go. Crossover has stiff penalty to hustler message. That the conundrum.

Basically if all factors remain constant - it impossible to beat BBI lineup with mere D/PORK ticket say Ruto-MK.

[RV Pundit]

Machakos By-Election update.
Provisional Results.
Agnes kavindu: 99,120 - combined effort of Kalonzo and Mutua in their home turf.
Urbanus Ngengele: 34,100 - 26% - better than Uhuru did with 17% in 2017.

[RV Pundit]

BBI lineup of 20 jokers will split into several teams and Ruto will hang each of them seperately
Nothing really stops Ruto from promising people PM sijui what.

As long as Ruto and Hustler Nation remain the movement to beat -  the BBI crew of 20 candidates against one are wasting their time.

Especially if they won't crack GEMA. The rest are really details.

Njuri no we don't recall any such thing. What would avoiding the byelections achieve? UDA being upstart party needs to market itself out there - it is a risk worth taking. Of course it is turning out badly - we expected close matches in Bukusu, Gusii and Kamba.

Pundit - Ruto is watermelon because he needs to dish out PM/DPM/CS to win. But Raila has made it difficult to crossover by locking him out of the team. He does not have the clout on his own to pull Uhuruto numbers nor anything near Moi 40%. UDA I doubt reaches URP with mere 1 year to to go. Crossover has stiff penalty to hustler message. That the conundrum.

Basically if all factors remain constant - it impossible to beat BBI lineup with mere D/PORK ticket say Ruto-MK.

[Nefertiti]

Squeezing lemonade out of the lemons are you 3-to-1 margin is serious dog beating. Muthama as former Wiper sponsor and now UDA chairman should have delivered half the Wiper vote.

Machakos By-Election update.
Provisional Results.
Agnes kavindu: 99,120 - combined effort of Kalonzo and Mutua in their home turf.
Urbanus Ngengele: 34,100 - 26% - better than Uhuru did with 17% in 2017.

[RV Pundit]

We killed Mutua fledgling presidential bid in machakos and have to deal with kalonzo.Muthama son and ex wife are competing.Ruto target in ukambani is to improve jubilee 2017 tally.Muthama is therefore very useful asset

[Nefertiti]

Enjoy your lemonade brother... fresh- blended UDA Tropicana

We killed Mutua fledgling presidential bid in machakos and have to deal with kalonzo.Muthama son and ex wife are competing.Ruto target in ukambani is to improve jubilee 2017 tally.Muthama is therefore very useful asset

[Nefertiti]

Pundit it seem to be worst dog-beating so far.. 80-20 margin. At least Luhya was 3-1... this more like Gusii rout. How will His Eminence Muthama the UDA chairman face folks now - with his gigantic ego - as Kalonzo "return" his kiveti after upgrading her to senator

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001406800/wiper-set-to-win-machakos-poll

[RV Pundit]

How much votes did Raila score  in Ukambani, Luhya outside Matungu (where his oparany runs it) - zero votes.
UDA and Ruto are doing extremely well - because these are not their strongholds;
Obviously you'll only realize too late when Raila is abandoned that Ruto is smart to build his own national base - create his own grassroot network - and the works.
Fact of matters is Ruto is so strong it forced Luhya-Kamba washed up politician to merge; and these are tops ups - just to take care of a few in GEMA who may decide to follow Uhuru to retirement.

UDA for now is the only National Party
. The rest have confined themselves to their tribal enclaves. ODM right now is working very hard to become a Luo Party - as coast abandons him - and Gusii will most likely go Matiangi way.

Pundit it seem to be worst dog-beating so far.. 80-20 margin. At least Luhya was 3-1... this more like Gusii rout. How will Muthama the UDA chairman face folks now - with his gigantic ego - as Kalonzo "return" his kiveti after upgrading her to senator

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001406800/wiper-set-to-win-machakos-poll

[Nefertiti]

Quick tally says 83 vs 17%.... despite Muthama chairing UDA. From influencer to choirboy just for joining Ruto. Now of course we know GEMA are no longer in Ruto grip... going by London and Hell's Gate they are a toss up at best. Ruto has already chickened out in Juja to avoid embarassment.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru and his opposition groupies pulled all stops - including withdrawal of Mutua and most importantly arrest of Sonko on trumped up terrorism charges - to stop UDA.As for GEMA - toss up to where - Raila or who?  Ruto is competing alone because GEMA will not accept 1) Raila or 2) Gideon.

Leaving Uhuru having to get a Kikuyu candidate to run - deny Ruto 1st round win - and hope to make deal with rest of the tribal gangs. That only viable strategy as far as I can see..otherwise Gideon is DOA and Raila obviously has been DOA for 3yrs - and is basically been dropped.

The stop Ruto at all cost movement will eventually unravel because they will not agree - Raila definitely will not play 2nd fiddle to anybody.

Quick tally says 83 vs 17%.... despite Muthama chairing UDA. From influencer to choirboy just for joining Ruto. Now of course we know GEMA are no longer in Ruto grip... going by London and Hell's Gate they are a toss up at best. Ruto has already chickened out in Juja to avoid embarassment.