Is there a clause that say BBI won't include Ruto. BBI gives everyone a bigger pie. Now if Ruto will be at say 40% - and he has 5 positions to give to get 10% - who do you think will win.
BBI crew each come with 1% (johos, oparanyas, mutuas) 2% (Wetangulas, gideon moi,matiangi), 4% (maDVD), 8% (kalonzo), GEMA XYZ (someone gema elite will back against Ruto's hustler nation) (maybe 10-15%), Raila 20-25% (max).
Now tell me who is likely to benefit more from BBI
. Handshake crew need everyone on board.
Ruto need to tap 8% like Kalonzo for Prime Minister - something he won't get in BBI crew
So for Ruto it will be easy Ruto pork, Kiunjuri dpork, Kalonzo dpork, and game shot.
For handshake crew - they need Raila - as top - and they get problems immediately in GEMA - and then they basically need everyone else adding - if they lose Kalonzo with 8% - it become impossible. How will Raila convince the rest to keep supporting him
Which is why BBI crew want to kick Raila as asap...and try aim for 2nd round contest.
Raila I belief is busy with his own crew - Mutuas, Oparanyas, Kituyis, Joho- those are newbies - still excited to be pictured next to Babu.
That is real Raila BBI lineup...Raila will not have problem being head of such a ticket
Kalonzo, gideon, madvd, matiangi and Uhuru man - will make another BBI lineup - if they can agree who will deputize who.
Ruto will have his own BBI line up.
This is your big prayer - pegged on court killing BBI. But BBI is already sold on ground... Ruto propaganda has been debunked. Now he has ombudsman and bloated parliament hence watermelon. All big fish but even some omena in Ruto camp are pro-BBI - all Raila need is to unveil the lineup. Without serious ground momentum - which now seem tall order - Ruto has nothing to offer anyone. Even Nanok and Mvurya will bolt like Kivutha - position themselves as influencer as they angle for MP/CS. Ala Kingi.
Parliamentary dilutes appeal of mass party like 2016-17 Jubilee - you need to be local kahuna to land MP and/or CS. Small cog in mega UDA is bad idea.
Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?