Mutura is a speaker - speaker and mca job is to keep governor in check - not to go in bed together. These are BASICS.
What will happen - MCAs will approve Kananu - she will sworn in - as de-jure governor - with Gen Badi as the de-facto governor.
What could happen - Sonko could get injunction or win the case - Nyamu his lawyer won for Wambora - and comeback as governor.
Also slim possibility of getting Igathe to comeback - I doubt he want to soil his career with the Nairobi mess.
So Kananu or Sonko or election. The judiciary will decide.
Election will be btw Waweru and Wanjiru - so GEMA vote will be split with Wanjiru getting more - and Wanjiru will need Sonko to win Kambas and slum dwellers -
Wanjiru-Sonko-Ruto will beat handshake. Sonko therefore is the decide - if he goes rogue and run as independent - handshake could win. If he backs Wanjiru - handshake will be in trouble - because both Wanjiru-Sonko can excite the Nairobi poor - waweru is like Gen Badi - zero charisma.
While Nairobi middle class appreciate Badi - clean streets - the poor want to hawk in those streets, erect vibandas.Nairobi is the future of class conflict in kenya - poor versus rich - like in Latin America. The hustler versus dynastic is a little precursor to coming class conflict.
Yeah Nairobi might abort as Mutura deputize Badi. I am eager to hear Njuri's reasoning that Ruto should stand down. Nairobi boils down to professional manager ala Badi vs hustler ala Sonko. This what Waweru vs Wanjiru represent. Clearly tribe remain big factor.
Ruto standing down would be worse move than fielding Wanjiru.
Handshake presented two kikuyus - will definitely be Waweru - so Hustler nation has no option but give them Wanjiru. Sonko has to fight in courts otherwise I think he is damaged goods - as long as ODM are cooperating with Uhuru - he will be impeached again and again.
In any case I don't see Nairobi by-election happening.