Tense moment in Uganda as Museveni descend start

[RV Pundit]

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Election is 8 days...a week..and Museveni is going into it after a year of some of toughest covid 19 restrictions that has made poor young ugandans almost suicidal.

It's going down. Bhang smoking red eyed Ghetto president has dared the man nobody really seriously dared.

Museveni will rig himself in.

There will be violent national protest - especially in urban centers - with looting and the works.

Museveni will kill and maim.

Uganda will enter bad books of Biden as the first customer. Sanctions will follow. Maybe ICC will get involved.

Uganda will go down - and eventually Museveni will be overthrown - and he will escape to exile.

[Nefertiti]

US observers withdraw as M7 army moves in to "provide security." I see no hope for Bobi. M7 needs internal NRM coup ala Mugabe, Bashir.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/us-cancel-uganda-election-observation-3255738

[Nefertiti]

I hope Biden sanctions the old thug to the bone but don't hold your breath. M7 is crafty. He sneaked in a raft of anti-gay and oppressive laws Obama last days and during Trump. Gay laws and freedom to tweet will be eased - to buy him few more years. M7 and Kagame have used women rights and gender parity as liberal facade to seduce the west for years. I think women are 30% MPs and even cabinet including VP. Of course they are powerless flowergirls but it great PR.

Election is 8 days...a week..and Museveni is going into it after a year of some of toughest covid 19 restrictions that has made poor young ugandans almost suicidal.

It's going down. Bhang smoking red eyed Ghetto president has dared the man nobody really seriously dared.

Museveni will rig himself in.

There will be violent national protest - especially in urban centers - with looting and the works.

Museveni will kill and maim.

Uganda will enter bad books of Biden as the first customer. Sanctions will follow. Maybe ICC will get involved.

Uganda will go down - and eventually Museveni will be overthrown - and he will escape to exile.

[RV Pundit]

I had side girl friend that I implored to get out but she refused...shit going down...m7 is hoping for quick crackdown but I think with Biden..it going to be long struggle

[Nefertiti]

Senile M7 ruthlessly going for clean sweep. This very bad omen for Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

You mean clean rigging in a dictatorship.Kenya cannot be taken such route unless you want something worse than 2007

[KenyanPlato]

According to the news coming in;

EASTERN UGANDA
Bobi Wine 57%
Museveni 31%
Others 12%

WESTERN UGANDA
Bobi Wine 33%
Museveni 62%
Others 5%

NORTHERN UGANDA
Bobi Wine 68%
Museveni 17%
Others 15%

CENTRAL UGANDA
Bobi Wine 84%
Museveni 11 %
Others 5 %#WeAreRemovingADictator pic.twitter.com/b9Id1RppQB

— Herman David Kisakye (@IamKisakye) January 15, 2021

8% reported bobi wine is leading

[RV Pundit]

It more than likely that Museveni will rig himself; the issues is how Ugandans and the world will react.

[Nefertiti]

You mean clean rigging in a dictatorship.Kenya cannot be taken such route unless you want something worse than 2007

any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%

[RV Pundit]

Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.

any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%

[RV Pundit]

Museveni take huge lead 65%
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/museveni-in-early-lead-as-uganda-awaits-final-election-results-3257924

[Kadudu]

Biden has bigger problems than Uganda. M7 will declare himself winner and by next week the world will have forgotten Uganda.
M7 cannot loose any kind of "election".

Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.

[RV Pundit]

He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.

Biden has bigger problems than Uganda. M7 will declare himself winner and by next week the world will have forgotten Uganda.
M7 cannot loose any kind of "election".

[Nefertiti]

Yeah UG might be in trouble but nothing significant to rattle M7 hardened thug. Few visa freezes for NRM generals or electoral commission poodles. M7 as he go senile will likely be inherited by the army commander son - or overthrown by NRM like Mugabe.

Of course i don't buy that "Biden is crazy" - i see him as a softie. Obama and Hillary Clinton were the hawks who wrecked havoc in Middle East and North Africa. The ongoing Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen horrors are likely to make Biden very careful. I suspect and hope Kamala Harris is relatively hardcore with her rough prosecutor record of locking up M23 drug dealers here in California. Kamala's foreign policy views are unknown.

The incoming SoS Tony Blinken is at best a foreign dove. Best known for assuaging policies than confrontation. Blinken has been Biden's foreign advisor so far and indications are containing China through "peaceful and legal means" - obviously it include sucking up to friendly dictators in UG and Egypt.

M7 strongest carrot is Biden's deep love for women, LGBT and such liberalism - which M7 and Kagame milk by propping flowegirls as ministers, MPs, etc. With female VP, expect foxy M7 to ease anti-gay laws, appoint lesbian UN ambassador, probably top up with LGBT rights committee or such.

Geopolitically UG strongly leans US/West which makes it a strategic misnomer for western powers to want M7 out. Bobi Wine could lean China so don't be naive about western hypocrisy. The incoming US admin has in fact dented democratic, economic and geopolitical credentials and has bigger fish to fry.

Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.

any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%

[Kadudu]

Africans do not like the idea of dying. M7 does not need to kill many. 50 to 100 is enough for the youth to cool down. The revolt against M7 will be over before it has started.

He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.

[RV Pundit]

Museveni enjoyed Uganda support until Bobi Wine happened.

Now he is entering the illegitimate era and is not useful to anybody.

Magufuli is a nut case but he is popular. Meles the same. Kagame is also still genuinely popular. Museveni descent has started.

That is why for first time he has shutdown the internet and disallowed foreign journalist, foreign observers.

The US and EU will have no option except come hard on M7  - it's inevitable.

Biden the way I see is don't like bullies...like M7...and M7 era as blue-eyed boy of the west is well over.

Yeah UG might be in trouble but nothing significant to rattle M7 hardened thug. Few visa freezes for NRM generals or electoral commission poodles. M7 as he go senile will likely be inherited by the army commander son - or overthrown by NRM like Mugabe.

Of course i don't buy that "Biden is crazy" - i see him as a softie. Obama and Hillary Clinton were the hawks who wrecked havoc in Middle East and North Africa. The ongoing Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen horrors are likely to make Biden very careful. I suspect and hope Kamala Harris is relatively hardcore with her rough prosecutor record of locking up M23 drug dealers here in California. Kamala's foreign policy views are unknown.

The incoming SoS Tony Blinken is at best a foreign dove. Best known for assuaging policies than confrontation. Blinken has been Biden's foreign advisor so far and indications are containing China through "peaceful and legal means" - obviously it include sucking up to friendly dictators in UG and Egypt.

M7 strongest carrot is Biden's deep love for women, LGBT and such liberalism - which M7 and Kagame milk by propping flowegirls as ministers, MPs, etc. With female VP, expect foxy M7 to ease anti-gay laws, appoint lesbian UN ambassador, probably top up with LGBT rights committee or such.

Geopolitically UG strongly leans US/West which makes it a strategic misnomer for western powers to want M7 out. Bobi Wine could lean China so don't be naive about western hypocrisy. The incoming US admin has in fact dented democratic, economic and geopolitical credentials and has bigger fish to fry.

Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.

any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%

[Nefertiti]

The higher the bodycount the more ominous for likes of Ruto. Optics. It is not the best time to be the opposition guy.

Africans do not like the idea of dying. M7 does not need to kill many. 50 to 100 is enough for the youth to cool down. The revolt against M7 will be over before it has started.

He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.

[Nefertiti]

I really hope you are right but logic says otherwise. US or western foreign policy is just hypocisy - otherwise a despot like Saudi Prince MBS who EJK journalists would not have carte blanche. And Egypt al-Sisi who lock up all opponents. They didn't back M7 so far due to some secret opinion poll - Dr Besigye was equally wildly popular - it geopolitics. UG strongly leans West despite Kenya, TZ, Ethiopia going for Chinese big cheques. If you're Bobi Wine and beat M7 - you are more likely to look East - China cheap infra than WB small chques with many conditions. That makes the status quo better than change for America. Noone will be squeezing M7 out of power soon if not NRM army.

Museveni enjoyed Uganda support until Bobi Wine happened.

Now he is entering the illegitimate era and is not useful to anybody.

Magufuli is a nut case but he is popular. Meles the same. Kagame is also still genuinely popular. Museveni descent has started.

That is why for first time he has shutdown the internet and disallowed foreign journalist, foreign observers.

The US and EU will have no option except come hard on M7  - it's inevitable.

Biden the way I see is don't like bullies...like M7...and M7 era as blue-eyed boy of the west is well over.

[Nefertiti]

30% in... M7 65% vs 27% Bobi

[Nefertiti]

Seem NRM will lose supermajority in parliament.. as Bobi party win some NRM seats.