2021 prediction on kenya politics.

[RV Pundit]

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1)  The economy will recover fast - but the gov is in financial problems - serious problems - and will need IMF bailout - and also debt rescheduling. The next budget projected down to 24B from 33B dollars - will need to be further slized to 20B.

2) This is the year Uhuru will understand what a lameduck president is - as 2022 election campaign get underway - politicians will be going to the ground - to recover lost ground mostly. He will become more lameduck as he pushes unpopular BBI and of course the gov will be broke - and will have to push for punitive taxes - just to pay salaries.

3) BBI referendum won't happen. IEBC will verify signatures possibly by mid February and it will move to counties for 3 months. I expect some injunction at that point. The best BBI can be ready for parliament is June 2021. Parliament at best will be ready for second reading in September - and being seen as unpopular - most MPs will not want to process it that fast. Will Uhuru be ready to pass BBI to IEBC in last Quarter of 2021 - leaving IEBC to hold BBI referendum in 1st Q of 2022 and election in 2nd Quarter?

4) Jubilee implosion will continue. Uhuru may reconcile with Ruto - when the heat become too much or may attempt to impeach Ruto (which is hard because of 2/3 requirement both in senate and parliament) - but ultimately the war is on. Uhuru without GEMA ground will continue to be naked king - and now the gema leaders will abandon him - because Uhuru won't be in ballot in 2022 while they will be facing the voters anger.

5) NASA implosion continues as they push BBI and support Uhuru unpopular gov. The NASA principals will wake up to find their supporters moved to Hustler Nation/Ruto corner. And if Uhuru was to reconcile with Ruto - then holding 2022 presidential election in 2022 will be useless exercises. Right now NASA have abandoned the people and their issues - and are hoping Uhuru can endorse one of them. Starting from Raila - Kalonzo- MaDVD - Gideon - all are hoping that Uhuru will issue an executive fiat to make them president.

6) This time when likes of Matiangi/Kibicho will discover that politics iko na wenyewe. They will have to make hard decision to quit cabinet and go for politics - or wait until 1st Q of 2022 - I think civil servants need to resign six months to election. Majority will chicken out - and prefer to eat one more year of gov money and tenders.

7) Judiciary - which is now independent - will spring surprises along the way. Parliament is technical dissolved. Parliament has 100 act/bills invalidated for not involving senate - the senate need to get busy to re-consider all those bills. There are many issues including appointment of next CJ and pending 41 judges. Judiciary will continue to be the curve ball that will be hard to predict - and BBI I believe will be killed by judiciary.

[Higgins the genius]

 But counties can pass BBI within a month

[RV Pundit]

IEBC will wait for the slowest counties. So 3 months. Legally they need to forward to parliament report with how each county voted - I don't see how they can just forward the bill as soon as first 24 counties submit a yes vote - so Raila crazy timelines will not work.

Most counties except luo nyanza will do what law requires - publish the bill - in newspaper - engage in some public participation - and then vote.

Only Siaya and Kisumu may ignore public participation and open themselves to legal challenges later.

But counties can pass BBI within a month

[Nefertiti]

LOL that Tangatanga Anthem you should maybe convert to Ruto manifesto - instead of Ndii nonsense. You have one or two valid points - the rest is just New Year wishes.

[Nefertiti]

7) Judiciary - which is now independent - will spring surprises along the way. Parliament is technical dissolved. Parliament has 100 act/bills invalidated for not involving senate - the senate need to get busy to re-consider all those bills. There are many issues including appointment of next CJ and pending 41 judges. Judiciary will continue to be the curve ball that will be hard to predict - and BBI I believe will be killed by judiciary.

MPs vs senate is not Ruto or even judiciary victory. Donge?  This Duale-Washiali circus was always a big risk - claiming "parliament" is Z as national assembly alone unless devolution is touched. It is a shame judiciary took 7 years to reign it in. The notable issue here is judicial laziness of 7 years - and AG Githu Muigai and Paul Kihara misadventure

In Senate the star on this is James Orengo - but I don't see it as his victory or Lusaka or Duale failure. It is more a legal misadventure by AG misadvising PORK to assent to illegal bills.

I know victories are few and far in between- but this one is not Ruto vs Raila - the duo had no stand and not even involved at all.

[RV Pundit]

well better than BBI - Raila's timeline. Hii ni bangi kali

LOL that Tangatanga Anthem you should maybe convert to Ruto manifesto - instead of Ndii nonsense. You have one or two valid points - the rest is just New Year wishes.

[RV Pundit]

Strawman arguments.

MPs vs senate is not Ruto or even judiciary victory. Donge?  This Duale-Washiali circus was always a big risk - claiming "parliament" is Z as national assembly alone unless devolution is touched. It is a shame judiciary took 7 years to reign it in. The notable issue here is judicial laziness of 7 years - and AG Githu Muigai and Paul Kihara misadventure

In Senate the star on this is James Orengo - but I don't see it as his victory or Lusaka or Duale failure. It is more a legal misadventure by AG misadvising PORK to assent to illegal bills.

I know victories are few and far in between- but this one is not Ruto vs Raila - the duo had no stand and not even involved at all.

[Nefertiti]

3) BBI referendum won't happen. IEBC will verify signatures possibly by mid February and it will move to counties for 3 months. I expect some injunction at that point. The best BBI can be ready for parliament is June 2021. Parliament at best will be ready for second reading in September - and being seen as unpopular - most MPs will not want to process it that fast. Will Uhuru be ready to pass BBI to IEBC in last Quarter of 2021 - leaving IEBC to hold BBI referendum in 1st Q of 2022 and election in 2nd Quarter?

Yawnn. BBI is 2022 election combo by design- that why they took years to draft then validate it. If they were worried about time it would have happened by now. The only thing Ruto managed to do was sabotage Exec PM - and now is out of cards as he cry Ombudsman and multiple-choice. And few seats or at least small mkia for his URP.

Ruto "think-tank" - of Ndiis and Khalawales  - has probably held a dozen night meetings exploring how to sneak to Yes - without losing face - as taking BBI head-on is suicidal. He is not watermelon by choice.

[Nefertiti]

4) Jubilee implosion will continue. Uhuru may reconcile with Ruto - when the heat become too much or may attempt to impeach Ruto (which is hard because of 2/3 requirement both in senate and parliament) - but ultimately the war is on. Uhuru without GEMA ground will continue to be naked king - and now the gema leaders will abandon him - because Uhuru won't be in ballot in 2022 while they will be facing the voters anger.

Yes - and that is big win for Raila. Jubilee 2017 - 200 MPs - was unbeatable mean machine. Now it not clear if it even legal - never held elections or filed accounts and shebang.

About GEMA even Njamba the famous critic here is praising Kenyatta - wonder why? After mlolongo Uhuru has brazenly favored GEMA - BBI, projects, revenues, appointments, name it. Half new appointees are GEMA. Now i hear Mau Mau Road to Njamba doorstep- and Lunatic Express morph into Mt Kenya Express. Not a whiff of grievances from Kuria now - don't be shocked when more Kurias and Nyoros defect to join Kaninis, Sabinas, Warugurus. By 2022 only Kihika, Ngunjiri of Bahati and maybe MK will be in hustler corner.

[RV Pundit]

Please forward this to Raila and ODM - so they don't stress themselves. Actually if BBI is held in 2022 and in multiple question - it become a NON-ISSUE. Because we get to choose what we want - and reject what we don't - like in California - and we can focus on 2022 election.

Raila is not interested in BBI - he is interested in No/Yes contest - so he can become the leader of Yes and hopefully use it in 2022 (That is how ODM began and is seeking to re-create the magic). That is why Raila has basically compromised on everything including IEBC.

But you're too dumb to see that. Ruto has his hustler nation - Raila badly need BBI has his issue - and literally doesn't care about the content - he just need a contest where he lead Yes like in 2010 and in 2005.

Yawnn. BBI is 2022 election combo by design- that why they took years to draft then validate it. If they were worried about time it would have happened by now. The only thing Ruto managed to do was sabotage Exec PM - and now is out of cards as he cry Ombudsman and multiple-choice. And few seats or at least small mkia for his URP.

Ruto "think-tank" - of Ndiis and Khalawales  - has probably held a dozen night meetings exploring how to sneak to Yes - without losing face - as taking BBI head-on is suicidal. He is not watermelon by choice.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee just lost two MCAs seat in GEMA proper - winning only in Ruiru's Kahawa Luo industrial belt by Luo candidate. That was signal enough to many politicians - and many have gone silent on anti-Ruto attacks.

Njamba is Raila man - for as long as I remember
In fact if you want to know where GEMA won't be - just look at Njamba position. He is reliably always opposed to GEMA.

Uhuru is going home in 2022 - nobody cares what he does - except in legacy debates. Whatever he does know is largely irrelevant because he won't be running again.

What people care about now is POST-UHURU kenya.

GEMA don't want Raila. You cannot force them to love the man. You only risk loosing it yourself.

About GEMA even Njamba the famous critic here is praising Kenyatta - wonder why? After mlolongo Uhuru has brazenly favored GEMA - BBI, projects, revenues, appointments, name it. Half new appointees are GEMA. Now i hear Mau Mau Road to Njamba doorstep- and Lunatic Express morph into Mt Kenya Express. Not a whiff of grievances from Kuria now - don't be shocked when more Kurias and Nyoros defect to join Kaninis, Sabinas, Warugurus. By 2022 only Kihika, Ngunjiri of Bahati and maybe MK will be in hustler corner.

[Nefertiti]

5) NASA implosion continues as they push BBI and support Uhuru unpopular gov. The NASA principals will wake up to find their supporters moved to Hustler Nation/Ruto corner. And if Uhuru was to reconcile with Ruto - then holding 2022 presidential election in 2022 will be useless exercises. Right now NASA have abandoned the people and their issues - and are hoping Uhuru can endorse one of them. Starting from Raila - Kalonzo- MaDVD - Gideon - all are hoping that Uhuru will issue an executive fiat to make them president.

NASA coalition is intact - the brief noise was Kalonzo and Mdvd failure to accept Raila is still the driver - especially Kalonzo. Mdvd noises was inclusion of PK as PM to safeguard Mt Kenya. Kalonzo is very happy with VP and they have Oparanya to keep Mdvd in check. Weta knows party registrar will replace him with Wamunyinyinyi & Dr Eseli so he must toe the line.

What more do you need? Look at by-election - it all fairly zoned - Wiper Machaa, ANC Matungu - FordK Kabuchai - Jubilee&ODM Nairobi. NASA is intact - rebranded as BBI to include TNA and Kanu.

Haha - i know it hard to accept old Raila is running circles around your genius hero in his prime. "NASA implosion" is laughable spin. While Jubilee Party Leader back NASA candidate for PORK - instead of handing over to Ruto.

BBI lineup of course is well known.

[RV Pundit]

The leaders are united in their desperation. Their people have left them. That is very clear. That is why Ruto is winning Msawbweni and will probably win those two Luhya seats, Machakos and even Nairobi.

While Uhuru is using force and gov machinery to retain support - Ruto has basically attracted NASA guys - for nothing (meaning without negotiating with Raila or Kalonzo or MaDVD). From Turkana Nanok, Muthamas, Kivuthas, Ndiis, Aisha Jumwas, name them.  These brilliant stuff you'll understand later because you're slow minded.

In fact without fear of gov machinery - Ruto would have more support - but as Gov become lameduck and broke - as transition sets in - nobody will care what kibicho says - and you'll see NASA as an empty shell - they will be left with names without support.

Look at Raila - everyone with a brain now knows he is just a Luo leader - coast is evaporating about now - gusii long left - luhyas left (bar Busia) - turkanasa - samburus-maasais - name it.
Kalonzo - has at best 1/3-1/2 of Ukambani - we shall see in Machakos - where he will face  Ruto-Sonko-Muthama - and Mutua - how badly wiper will be.
Weta - that one is just posturing but is interest is to go to Bungoma - and compete with Lusaka and Wanagamati.
MaDVD - Outside Vihiga and maybe Kakamega - he is nothing.

NASA coalition is intact - the brief noise was Kalonzo and Mdvd failure to accept Raila is still the driver - especially Kalonzo. Mdvd noises was inclusion of PK as PM to safeguard Mt Kenya. Kalonzo is very happy with VP and they have Oparanya to keep Mdvd in check. Weta knows party registrar will replace him with Wamunyinyinyi & Dr Eseli so he must toe the line.

What more do you need? Look at by-election - it all fairly zoned - Wiper Machaa, ANC Matungu - FordK Kabuchai - Jubilee&ODM Nairobi. NASA is intact - rebranded as BBI to include TNA and Kanu.

Haha - i know it hard to accept old Raila is running circles around your genius hero in his prime. "NASA implosion" is laughable spin. While Jubilee Party Leader back NASA candidate for PORK - instead of handing over to Ruto.

BBI lineup of course is well known.

[Nefertiti]

1)  The economy will recover fast - but the gov is in financial problems - serious problems - and will need IMF bailout - and also debt rescheduling. The next budget projected down to 24B from 33B dollars - will need to be further slized to 20B.

2) This is the year Uhuru will understand what a lameduck president is - as 2022 election campaign get underway - politicians will be going to the ground - to recover lost ground mostly. He will become more lameduck as he pushes unpopular BBI and of course the gov will be broke - and will have to push for punitive taxes - just to pay salaries.

6) This time when likes of Matiangi/Kibicho will discover that politics iko na wenyewe. They will have to make hard decision to quit cabinet and go for politics - or wait until 1st Q of 2022 - I think civil servants need to resign six months to election. Majority will chicken out - and prefer to eat one more year of gov money and tenders.

2 & 6 are not newsworthy. Gema or Matiang'is or NASA or many kingpins are backing their own self-interest in BBI not Uhuru the person.

As economy recover - hustler appeal melt away - and BBI real solid goodies become apparent. Covid is your best friend Bw RV Pundit.

[RV Pundit]

I think Matiangis-Kibicho is important because remember they had their own project - and were using Raila as cover - otherwise there are those in gov - who were convinced they can have a Matiangi as PORK - this mostly cabinet ministers and few Uhuru orphans. In fact those that want Raila to be PORK - are maybe ODM old folks in Jubilee - Ngunjiris/maokes - otherwise am 99% convinced GEMA elite WILL NOT trust Raila soon.

Now once Matiangi-Kibichos - chicken out - they have two options - jump to Raila or Ruto. Obviously I don't think Uhuru and his gema elite will trust Raila. Their difference is deep. Ignore the brotherly extoration. With Ruto - it's just a cup of tea - and it's back to normal - for Uhuru has been working with Ruto all his political life.

So again I put chance of Uhuru and Ruto reconciling this year at more than 80%. Uhuru is on the wall. He has to negotiate. Ruto is basically unbeatable now...and Raila is not to be trusted. Uhuru system guys have basically run out of ammunition - and Ruto seem to grow even more popular. Their last ammunition is to go for Impeachment on Ruto.

As for economy - recovery to pre-COVID era will take some years - but what people will remember is Jubilee 1.0 versus Jubilee 2.0 - and they will see the difference is Ruto/Raila  - and you know - Ruto will look VERY VERY GOOD.

2 & 6 are not newsworthy. Gema or Matiang'is or NASA or many kingpins are backing their own self-interest in BBI not Uhuru the person.

As economy recover - hustler appeal melt away - and BBI real solid goodies become apparent. Covid is your best friend Bw RV Pundit.

[Higgins the genius]

IEBC will wait for the slowest counties. So 3 months. Legally they need to forward to parliament report with how each county voted - I don't see how they can just forward the bill as soon as first 24 counties submit a yes vote - so Raila crazy timelines will not work.

Most counties except luo nyanza will do what law requires - publish the bill - in newspaper - engage in some public participation - and then vote.

Only Siaya and Kisumu may ignore public participation and open themselves to legal challenges later.

But counties can pass BBI within a month

I understand that the county assembly speakers transmit the decision directly to the speakers of Parliament. Once IEBC transmit the bill to the assemblies, they can only wait for a communication to hold a referendum from the President

[RV Pundit]

I don't see how anybody will sidestep procedural red tape to please RAILA. Things will be done in order.So BBI will not surmount the red tape this year

[Nefertiti]

One minute we should ignore an entire chapter 6... next minute we should uphold all dots&crosses in non-existent referendum law. You are amazing. So MCAs need public participation and publishing referendum bill in the papers? - what law is that  For a "wildly popular" hustler nation you are quite anxious about this BBI referendum. The fact we know it's Raila 2022 manifesto makes this comical.

[KenyanPlato]

Uhuru legacy is intact. Infrastructure is the Uhuru's lasting legacy.

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru legacy is intact. Infrastructure is the Uhuru's lasting legacy.

Pundit says the roads were built by Ruto... he is like this greedy mzee who went to two feasts but slept hungry