Nairobi the 90% slum city

[Nefertiti]

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[Nefertiti]

Only Lang'ata has a working class majority. The rest is basically slums. Explains how a chokora like Sonko could escape from prison and win. Once people get that a fellow thug or slummer is in fact not the best answer to your predicament they will improve. Tribalism is bad enough - poorism is way worse. The accomplished guy is more likely to help - that why you run away to America or Europe and not to Somalia or South Sudan.

You see Pundit - class is a step backwards towards barbarism not an improvement over tribe.



Langa'ta - working class majority in South C, Otiende, few corrupt kalenjin- cops. Karen rich kenyans and wazungu maybe 5%

Kibra - Luo slum. Woodley working class maybe 5%

Starehe - working class in Nairobi West, Madaraka, Upper Hill outnumbered by the poor in Ngara, Pangani, Kariokor. And the homeless in CBD

Mathare - Luo slum

Kamukunji - Eastleigh, Pumwani poor Somalis plus Majengo kikuyu slum

Makadara - working class in South B, Buru Buru outnumbered by the semi-slums in Shauri Moyo, Jericho, Hamza, Industrial Area, Makongeni, Kaloleni

Dagoretti South - working class around Woodley-Junction Mall ("Dagoretti corner"). Rest of kikuyu semi-slum stretch along southern bypass - Satellite - Riruta - Waithaka - to Uthiru - to connect Kinoo & Kangemi

Dagoretti North - Kawangware, Gatina gusii slums - middle class in Kilimani, Kileleshwa, Lavington, Muthangari maybe 10%

Westlands - Kangemi, Gichagi luhya slums. Middle class in Parklands, Westlands 10%. Rich or upper middle in Muthaiga, Runda, Nyari, Kitisuru, Kyuna, Loresho, Spring Valley maybe 5%

Roysambu - Zimmerman, G44 kikuyu semi-slum

Kasarani - poor kikuyus all the way to Komarock, Saika, Njiru

Ruaraka - Kisumu ndogo, Kasabun, Lucky summer luo semi-slums

Embakasi North - Kariobangi kikuyu slum

Embakasi Central - Dandora, Korogocho kikuyu slums

Embakasi West - Umoja semi-slum. Innercore, Stella-Tena poor working class. Doonholm-Jacaranda working class

Embakasi South - Mukuru kamba slum. Tassia-Pipeline semi-slum. Imara Daima working class maybe 5%

Embakasi East - Kayole-Soweto Luo semi-slum. Nyayo, Baraka, Utawala working class.

[RV Pundit]

Slum occupy 2% of Nairobi, 5% of build up area but houses more than half its residence.Solution is mass housing projects...kill two birds..housing and unemployment

[hk]

Slum occupy 2% of Nairobi, 5% of build up area but houses more than half its residence.Solution is mass housing projects...kill two birds..housing and unemployment

Slums aren't cause of housing shortage but low incomes. Mass housing projects is a cosmetic solution, after all why would taxpayers earning peanuts subsidize housing for city dwellers? The solution is increasing productivity, this will lead to higher incomes and as a result better housing affordability. Also, Nairobi seems like a made up city by colonialist. Normally urbanization is driven by higher productivity in urban areas, that's not necessary true in Nairobi. Future and current companies should be located where either they source materials or the area has essential ecosystem. Breweries for example should be located somewhere either in Narok or Timau where is plenty of water and barley key raw material.

[RV Pundit]

Productivity of what? Let not get into polemics that don't make any sense.

First tell in 60s and 70s when Mzungu was running the city - why were slums absent? Because Mzungu built decent low class residential areas for low income africans in Nairobi's Eastland. Companies also built low class residential areas for their employees.

Nairobi sank into slums in late 80s and 90s - when gov got out of social housing - and left it to the market - and we saw matatuzation of housing sector - now it's a complete mess - with slums, semi-slums and barely any decent estate. Housing and transport sector has been allowed to become completely informal - creating a huge mess.

Everyone in Nairobi pay rent - the rent is enough to start a tenant-purchase scheme. The financing of such housing - doesn't necessarily have to come from taxes - it can come private sector - with gov just acting as gurantetor.  During construction phase of housing, roads,  - it will employ millions - providing real income - like it's done in China - where manufacturing and construction are biggest employer - not agriculture anymore. There is so much to be constructed in kenya - we can keep about half - maybe 5Million kenyans employed permanently building stuff for next 50yrs.

Also once gov move in big scale to housing - then a Kamau building a ugly flat all over will cease - because gov built houses will be modern, cheaper and safe - and Kamau will think about investing in manufacturing or dairy or hotels - not Matatu or plot maguta maguta rental flats kayole slumcomplexes.

As for Breweries - please understand the economics of location. There are reasons why replicating Nairobi for example is so hard. Companies need go beyond raw material. Companies prefer to locate where other companies are....If we need to decongest Nairobi - then only option is to build industrial park - where many companies can be situated - enough to create economies of location/scale.

We can move millions currently rotting in slums and farms - into construction industry - if we copy chinese model - and kill many birds. We need to go into massive road, bridges, housing, railways, dams, irrigation and name it construction bliz - and gov can easily finance this - if it was to think smartly.

Slums aren't cause of housing shortage but low incomes. Mass housing projects is a cosmetic solution, after all why would taxpayers earning peanuts subsidize housing for city dwellers? The solution is increasing productivity, this will lead to higher incomes and as a result better housing affordability. Also, Nairobi seems like a made up city by colonialist. Normally urbanization is driven by higher productivity in urban areas, that's not necessary true in Nairobi. Future and current companies should be located where either they source materials or the area has essential ecosystem. Breweries for example should be located somewhere either in Narok or Timau where is plenty of water and barley key raw material.

[hk]

Productivity of what? Let not get into polemics that don't make any sense.

First tell in 60s and 70s when Mzungu was running the city - why were slums absent? Because Mzungu built decent low class residential areas for low income africans in Nairobi's Eastland. Companies also built low class residential areas for their employees.

Nairobi sank into slums in late 80s and 90s - when gov got out of social housing - and left it to the market - and we saw matatuzation of housing sector - now it's a complete mess - with slums, semi-slums and barely any decent estate. Housing and transport sector has been allowed to become completely informal - creating a huge mess.

Everyone in Nairobi pay rent - the rent is enough to start a tenant-purchase scheme. The financing of such housing - doesn't necessarily have to come from taxes - it can come private sector - with gov just acting as gurantetor.  During construction phase of housing, roads,  - it will employ millions - providing real income - like it's done in China - where manufacturing and construction are biggest employer - not agriculture anymore. There is so much to be constructed in kenya - we can keep about half - maybe 5Million kenyans employed permanently building stuff for next 50yrs.

Also once gov move in big scale to housing - then a Kamau building a ugly flat all over will cease - because gov built houses will be modern, cheaper and safe - and Kamau will think about investing in manufacturing or dairy or hotels - not Matatu or plot maguta maguta rental flats kayole slumcomplexes.

As for Breweries - please understand the economics of location. There are reasons why replicating Nairobi for example is so hard. Companies need go beyond raw material. Companies prefer to locate where other companies are....If we need to decongest Nairobi - then only option is to build industrial park - where many companies can be situated - enough to create economies of location/scale.

We can move millions currently rotting in slums and farms - into construction industry - if we copy chinese model - and kill many birds. We need to go into massive road, bridges, housing, railways, dams, irrigation and name it construction bliz - and gov can easily finance this - if it was to think smartly.

In the 60 and 70s cost of workers housing was comparable to their incomes. Average wage of ksh.200 and housing allowance of  about ksh.20 and housing wasn't subsidized. Now average nairobian slum dweller maybe makes ksh.20k and they pay rent of about 3k in the slums. The problem is incomes hasn't risen as fast as cost of housing.  The biggest failure in housing is lack of planning and property rights(titles).
Which is this government guarantee that'll will be cheaper than the cost of prevailing interest rates? This is the reason why macro economics matter.  Economics of location or clusters that are forced is outdated model due to low Cost of movement of goods and services. Its one of the reasons why Breweries is locating its senator keg business in Kisumu where raw materials, labour and transport are readily available.
Chinese model isn't first emphasizing on infrastructure, its initially focusing on production of goods. Chinese government focused on production first that's why there are many chinese government owned companies. Production always create a demand driven infrastructure boom to facilitate more production and consumption. Inversely, infrastructure first development normally leads to stagnated economic growth.

[RV Pundit]

I think you have narrow view of economics - that is just production of goods - and for you providing decent housing and transport - is not as important as manufacturing things.

The problem we have in kenya housing - is not lack of money - it's informalization - leading to slums. It began with failure of National Housing Corp  - then corruption of 90s with Mugoya's dissuading pension and insurance funds from investing in real estate.

What we now have is you and me - bootstrapping funds - and building all kind of ugly structures. The same is true with Matatu.

What you end up is urban sprawl without character, order and etc.

The solution - therefore is not rocket science - we don't need any extra money - it's the same money the economy has - it just  need to be organized - formalized.

Otherwise we can build low class housing that are decent - for slum dwellers. We can build low cost housing unit for middle class - people paying 10-20k in Umoja one. Those paying 30k. Name it.

NHC when it was functioning - built Nyayo highrises/estates - and rent/mortagage was so affordable - for even lowest of low cadre civil servants earning 10-20k. I know a gov driver who own one. They use to pay 6-8k as part of tenant purchase agreeement.

Retail is formalizing - thanks to supermarkets. The same need to happen in transport and housing sector - otherwise what we have now is chaos.

We need Nyayo embakasi kind of housing schemes - 5,000 units - with proper amenities - planned - and cheap. Not Zimmerman kind of mess.

In the 60 and 70s cost of workers housing was comparable to their incomes. Average wage of ksh.200 and housing allowance of  about ksh.20 and housing wasn't subsidized. Now average nairobian slum dweller maybe makes ksh.20k and they pay rent of about 3k in the slums. The problem is incomes hasn't risen as fast as cost of housing.  The biggest failure in housing is lack of planning and property rights(titles).
Which is this government guarantee that'll will be cheaper than the cost of prevailing interest rates? This is the reason why macro economics matter.  Economics of location or clusters that are forced is outdated model due to low Cost of movement of goods and services. Its one of the reasons why Breweries is locating its senator keg business in Kisumu where raw materials, labour and transport are readily available.
Chinese model isn't first emphasizing on infrastructure, its initially focusing on production of goods. Chinese government focused on production first that's why there are many chinese government owned companies. Production always create a demand driven infrastructure boom to facilitate more production and consumption. Inversely, infrastructure first development normally leads to stagnated economic growth.

[Nefertiti]

The big culprit you are looking for is 80-90s baby boomers. That squandered all the growth and multiplied poverty. Moi, IMF, NHC take too much of the flak.

China vs Kenya structural differences are night and day

1. Formalization - China used eminent domain or autocratic laws - doable but quite hard in Kenya with property rights, etc
2. Manufacturing - impossible as factory boat has sailed. I don't see manufacturing peaking past value-add breweries, dairies, cottage. I still hear dreams about assembling cars
3. Construction - doable but hard with debt ceiling. China had export boom from 2 above
4. Productivity - China imposed brutal one-child policy - impossible with BoRs, liberal democracy

These 4 levers are enabled by Communist autocracy. Jail folks for illegal siring - basically reined in baby boom and raised per capita. 10% REAL GDP growth over 30 years - per head. Mass evictions to pave highways, rail or housing - hehe - Nairobi bypasses took 5 years of court injunctions. 2018 Xi ordered all cabs and public transport to be electric in 3 years.

Command economy is easier to hammer into place. Kenya's model needs to be viewed in Mauritius or Botswana prism. It more aligned there than China. Not just political structure but their scale, culture, etc.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit run quick math of China-build Kajiado or Macahakos mega estate. It cost as much as SGR - and dirt-poor slummers cannot afford it. The slums are 70% not the semi-slums - maybe 30%. Kibra or Korogocho are jobless zero-income crew. 10-20k is zero income.

Industrial park? Slums would mushroom all around them. Nairobi or any town is a sort of SEZ ab initio - so brewers, schools, housers and all set up there.

[RV Pundit]

Kajiado mass housing will only make sense with working cheap light rail otherwise kibera should be modernized right there..the houses are low rise...so highrises will handle 10 times more residents.Gov should do PPA..provide land and horizontal infrastructure ala konza city..and guarantee mortgage..and money will flow..fixing housing and employment..basically derisk real estate for big scale housing schemes..

[RV Pundit]

The big culprit you are looking for is 80-90s baby boomers. That squandered all the growth and multiplied poverty. Moi, IMF, NHC take too much of the flak.

China vs Kenya structural differences are night and day

1. Formalization - China used eminent domain or autocratic laws - doable but quite hard in Kenya with property rights, etc
2. Manufacturing - impossible as factory boat has sailed. I don't see manufacturing peaking past value-add breweries, dairies, cottage. I still hear dreams about assembling cars
3. Construction - doable but hard with debt ceiling. China had export boom from 2 above
4. Productivity - China imposed brutal one-child policy - impossible with BoRs, liberal democracy

These 4 levers are enabled by Communist autocracy. Jail folks for illegal siring - basically reined in baby boom and raised per capita. 10% REAL GDP growth over 30 years - per head. Mass evictions to pave highways, rail or housing - hehe - Nairobi bypasses took 5 years of court injunctions. 2018 Xi ordered all cabs and public transport to be electric in 3 years.

Command economy is easier to hammer into place. Kenya's model needs to be viewed in Mauritius or Botswana prism. It more aligned there than China. Not just political structure but their scale, culture, etc.

yes low cost manufacturing is hard...our only hope is construction industry. We cannot compete internationally on export driven manufacturing...but yes Rwanda is doing 9% growth rate as of last year..we can learn from them

[Nefertiti]

BUT Pundit - those things are okay - PPA, etc. You have organic or structural problem - DNA not simple delinquency - of low income that China fix by fiat. You cannot be knee-jerk else those PPA measures are drop in the ocean. If you explain why there are chokoras and homeless- you will see it POVERTY that has skyrocketed not indiscipline or lack of formalization.

A SEZ or industrial park is a town ground zero.

What hk means by productivity? - is raise income per head. But independent Kenya has grown at okay rate for most part - no war or pandemic or serious disruption - what has happened? Baby boom. 

This makes me hopeless - well almost- and tells me China is distinct animal you cannot learn from. With no classic factory-export goods path - no commodity boom - no command economy- Kenya path is narrow. It why I see demographic dividend as big deal while you mock me. The recent influx of excess VC capital in Nairobi is higher than most Sub Sahara - maybe top 3. If Robina was Uhuru - focus like a laser on FDI - capital, tech and manpower. Mauritius is richest Sub Sahara- lots of immigration and economic liberalism - 40% foreigners i think.

Formalization is a tough nut - cause it a macro-economic. I mean you can pass laws on xyz - but beyond that you have little control- cause Kenya style as market economy shoved through by IMF-WB. It was not roadside Moi policy. Same as CoK and labor laws - very tough nut.

[Nefertiti]

The VC startup capital influx into Nairobi is not matched by manpower influx. The ease-of-doing-biz index lack skilled manpower element for Africa. You know- GLOBAL startup success rate is 5%. That make it maybe 1% in Africa - to balance US 10%. You need as many Michael Josephs as you have Antlers. Elaborate investor-immigration visa - not crying about #ChineseRestaurant like brats - yet you want to attract Chinese entrepreneurs.

[RV Pundit]

Chokora and homeless are there all over the world.
We are not asking for anything more than colonial era Jericho-Maringo kind of estate for poor - this time high-rises.
Nothing fancy - but definitely private sector can afford to build houses for 3k a month - and they don't have the benefits of scale
If gov moves in with private sector - it can build better, more organized and habitable low class residential houses - that can rent out for even 1k (slum rate).

BUT Pundit - those things are okay - PPA, etc. You have organic or structural problem - DNA not simple delinquency - of low income that China fix by fiat. You cannot be knee-jerk else those PPA measures are drop in the ocean. If you explain why there are chokoras and homeless- you will see it POVERTY that has skyrocketed not indiscipline or lack of formalization.

A SEZ or industrial park is a town ground zero.

What hk means by productivity? - is raise income per head. But independent Kenya has grown at okay rate for most part - no war or pandemic or serious disruption - what has happened? Baby boom. 

This makes me hopeless - well almost- and tells me China is distinct animal you cannot learn from. With no classic factory-export goods path - no commodity boom - no command economy- Kenya path is narrow. It why I see demographic dividend as big deal while you mock me. The recent influx of excess VC capital in Nairobi is higher than most Sub Sahara - maybe top 3. If Robina was Uhuru - focus like a laser on FDI - capital, tech and manpower. Mauritius is richest Sub Sahara- lots of immigration and economic liberalism - 40% foreigners i think.

Formalization is a tough nut - cause it a macro-economic. I mean you can pass laws on xyz - but beyond that you have little control- cause Kenya style as market economy shoved through by IMF-WB. It was not roadside Moi policy. Same as CoK and labor laws - very tough nut.

[RV Pundit]

Good for finding next m-pesa tech that can change our systems - but you're talking a vertical scale - otherwise majority of people are those rural urban poor.

The VC startup capital influx into Nairobi is not matched by manpower influx. The ease-of-doing-biz index lack skilled manpower element for Africa. You know- GLOBAL startup success rate is 5%. That make it maybe 1% in Africa - to balance US 10%. You need as many Michael Josephs as you have Antlers. Elaborate investor-immigration visa - not crying about #ChineseRestaurant like brats - yet you want to attract Chinese entrepreneurs.

[KenyanPlato]

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/nearly-half-of-kenyans-earn-below-sh30-000-3242738?view=htmlamp

[Nefertiti]

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/nearly-half-of-kenyans-earn-below-sh30-000-3242738?view=htmlamp

No-brainer. 100B gdp for 50m come to 25k per head. Factor the inequality- gini 50% - and you have a problem.

[RV Pundit]

Part of it is more than half are kids; we are talking adults about 20-25M. About 30m are economically useless. If pop was to transition to say 35M adults against 15m kids...we would double the GDP - without doing much - because those adults have to fend for themselves to survive.

No-brainer. 100B gdp for 50m come to 25k per head. Factor the inequality- gini 50% - and you have a problem.

[Nefertiti]

We are trying to tell you it's not lack of formalization but poverty that causes homelessness or slums. Those KRA or city council Maringo Estate - even Ofafa or Buru Buru - were once beautiful but now very dilapidated and not nearly enough. Nairobi county houses cannot even self- maintain. It come down to hk argument- that numbers won't add up. You would need to kick out jobless crew from slums - China-style.  The new units would  soon be outstripped by new rural-urban immigrants.

Chokora and homeless are there all over the world.
We are not asking for anything more than colonial era Jericho-Maringo kind of estate for poor - this time high-rises.
Nothing fancy - but definitely private sector can afford to build houses for 3k a month - and they don't have the benefits of scale
If gov moves in with private sector - it can build better, more organized and habitable low class residential houses - that can rent out for even 1k (slum rate).

[RV Pundit]

They only become outstripped if gov doesn't continue building them.In 1960s..did Kenyans have jobs..no.Informality can be dealt with Rwanda style..by making it illegal or for me by gov stepping in.There is money..that generating slumscrappers