As the United States goes into the New Year breaking single-day records for coronavirus deaths, data from the Centers for Disease Control suggests the true cumulative U.S. death toll is approaching half a million.
Last week saw two new record daily totals of confirmed Covid deaths of over 3,700, and as of Friday, the official U.S. death toll was 347,870. That’s according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, which is generally regarded as the official source for confirmed coronavirus figures.
But according to the latest available figures from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the true current death toll is likely much greater — and could surpass half a million in a matter of weeks.
CDC tracks the number of deaths reported in excess of the average number of expected deaths based on prior years, and the latest figures show that since the pandemic began, 431,792 more people than expected have died.
But those figures only measure excess deaths through the week ending December 19, when the official confirmed death toll was at 316,000. Since then, another 31,000 lost souls have been added to the official count. Excess deaths during the pandemic have hovered around twenty percent, meaning that in the past two weeks, it’s likely that an additional 6,000 deaths have been undercounted — meaning the current number of excess deaths is likely around 470,000.
The news comes as vaccinations lag far behind what is necessary to end the pandemic — and portends months more of escalating national tragedy. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects an additional 200,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths by April.