RV - 25% of national votes - is intact - from Turkana to Kajiado.
Small issues Ruto has in Tranzoia, Kajiado and Narok will be sorted out. In Tranzoia Ford-Kenya want free ride - so Ruto will exchange kalenjin diaspora for presidential votes - same strategy in Narok. Kikuyu diaspora have same deal in Nakuru. Those in Laikipia will fly with Mwangi Kiunjuri. Kajiado is where Ruto will go 50-50 - the rest we are sweeping the board.
Now when you get solid 25% - you're already half way the target 50% plus 1.
From the rest of 7 old provinces you need to get 5% here and there - and nick it.
NEP - home and dry - this is maybe 2-3% - Ruto is starring at 30% - if you factor other cushites in Upper Eastern.
Now we just need 20% to nick it.
We can come to Nairobi - that is about 10% of the national vote - Ruto unlike say Moi is competitive in the city - and I believe can do 50-50 - so about 5%.
We are at 35%. 15% more to go.
We are spoiled for choices here - lets leave the elephant in the house - Central - about 3M votes - roughly 15% of national vote.
Ruto goes to western. I think they are 10% of the national vote. Ruto can get even 5%....and more if we get Wetangula to nail entire Bukusu(very ripe in my opinion for Ruto taking)
we are 40%.
Let move to coast - also another 10% of the national vote - Ruto can get 5% - We are at 45%.
And we haven't gone even to Nyanza, Eastern or Central...and we just need 5%.
We can ask Muthama-Kivutha to deliver 3% - and we will be at there
- 48% - with 2% coming from a few Gusii/Kurias.
Remember we haven't gone to Central and Meru - which is Ruto bedrock - to collect our debt. We can even leave that to Baba
if he wants to badly collect his first.
But if we take the majority of it - like 80% - leaving a few confused kieleweke struggling at 20% - we are talking about 20% of national votes - so Ruto is adding 15% more...if Ruto get Mwangi Kiunjuri or someone from there as DPORK.
And we have 65%!!!!!!!!!!If Uhuru comes to his senses and realizes that Ruto is UNSTOPPABLE like I know - he will reconcile, say sorry and endorse Ruto - then we be talking 70%. At this point it will be pointless for Raila to run.