Noway, Pundit & katikati crew: let discuss what you do know - tribes on Excel

[Nefertiti]

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Sonko has surrendered so you are headed to a showdown in Nairobi as early as Feb 2021. They might even throw in Machaa, Matungu and Kabuchai. I know you are still drunk with hubris from small Diani win but Nairobi will be mother of all battles.

2 camps: hustler vs BBI

BBI starts with 15% Luo all but guaranteed. The biggest swing vote is Kikuyu 30%. This means both camps are likely to field Kikuyus with Kamba or Luhya as runningmate.

KAMBA: we know BBI lineup - Kalonzo, Mutua, Ngilu are very happy while Muthama, Kivutha are very bitter. This will be epic between them. Obviously with Ruto preying on Machaa and Ukambani - Wiper&Chap Chap will be keen to lock hustler out of the city.

LUHYA: Judas katikati Sakaja will chicken out and likely stay out of the race altogether. Aladwas, Sifunas, Eugenes and Oparanyas will show up big for BBI. Khalwales, Washialis, Barasas for hustler. Will ANC and FORD-K strike BBI deal with ODM to sit out in Western? Ruto greed and anti-BBI will likely out him as a lone ranger in Nairobi and everywhere. Unless he pull another Mariga hat-trick Luhya will be difficult.

GUSII: leans BBI with Matiang'is, Aratis, Ongwaes, Ongeris. Ruto as usual has DG Maang'i and 2 MPs.

SOMALI: leans hustler. Ruto has Duale with no other serious mover in the city. Ali Robas areh noth known past NEP. Haji is useless mzee.

NARRATIVE: hustler vs BBI both have pros n cons. Slumdwellers are the overwhelming majority - but BBI 35%, tribalism and NMS relative performance severely dilute classism. Ruto will point out Diani but will be reminded Kibra is actually closer home.


Ps - Plato this is above your paygrade

[Nefertiti]

Pundit if you give Dennis Waweru half Kikuyu (15%), Luo (15%), most Luhya (10%), most Kamba (10%)- you can even keep Duale and his Zoomalis. Hehe. Few Gusii and Nubian topups you are done. You can bring back Mariga to deputize Bishop Wanjiru.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Pundit if you give Dennis Waweru half Kikuyu (15%), Luo (15%), most Luhya (10%), most Kamba (10%)- you can even keep Duale and his Zoomalis. Hehe. Few Gusii and Nubian topups you are done. You can bring back Mariga to deputize Bishop Wanjiru.

Are you placing another bet?

[RV Pundit]

Waweru will never make it.Project however packaged cannot make it.Ask Moi in 2002.Nairobi will see a protest vote and anyone including miguna or even a dog will win.Not everything is tribal or racial..those are luxuries that people enjoy in good times.Ask Trump.kenya now is in angry,broke and hopeless mode..the worst you can do is to be seen as pro government .The hustler nation revolution akin to narc revolution is underfoot..it serious.Corona is real.Run run run away from uhuru and his gov...the coming economic and health carnage is unprecedented.Revolution even in Uganda is a foot.People are angry,broke,hopeless and fearful.The worse you can sell now is incumbency.Ruto has brilliant cast himself against deep state and the system...at the opportunite time.Raila is dying to be  a project at wrong time.2017 jubilee did well with 6 percent average growth..the best ever.This time economy will tank below zero..millions are being sent to poverty and the rest are hopeless in situation developed countries are hopeless

[RV Pundit]

Pundit if you give Dennis Waweru half Kikuyu (15%), Luo (15%), most Luhya (10%), most Kamba (10%)- you can even keep Duale and his Zoomalis. Hehe. Few Gusii and Nubian topups you are done. You can bring back Mariga to deputize Bishop Wanjiru.

why on earth would a kamba vote waweru.....is Ruto such a gorilla for everyone...no..only for you.The way I see handshakes will end up with Luo, half gema and gusii..35 against 65 hustler nation

[RV Pundit]

Robina politics is current affairs..it is not history

[Nefertiti]

Pundit if you give Dennis Waweru half Kikuyu (15%), Luo (15%), most Luhya (10%), most Kamba (10%)- you can even keep Duale and his Zoomalis. Hehe. Few Gusii and Nubian topups you are done. You can bring back Mariga to deputize Bishop Wanjiru.

why on earth would a kamba vote waweru.....is Ruto such a gorilla for everyone...no..only for you.The way I see handshakes will end up with Luo, half gema and gusii..35 against 65 hustler nation

And why will Kamba vote Ruto? The only currency is Sonko and BBI. On that account you have a few Kamba who will vote hustler - and the rest Wiper/Kalonzo.

You have to consider Sonko may be intimidated by deep state - and go MIA - his own interest comes first before Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Robina politics is current affairs..it is not history

I agree. BBI vs hustler are the current affairs.

1. HUSTLER message is neutered by NMS better performance. Sonko had long vitriol about "Mt Kidero" and promised miracles. Then nothing- it harder to spin his voodoo now. A good chunk of folks would rather there was
no elections at all and Badi should just run the show until 2022.

Hustler magic has been diluted by Sonko and Waititus dismal performance. This is governor not MP seat.

2. KIKUYU have been sold PK very well - while greedy Ruto has hesitated to market MK. Obviously PK will be drumming BBi candidate. I suspect it Waweru vs Wanjiru or such - Kikuyu vs Kikuyu. Gema brats will continue to be spoilt.

I know you are more desperate than ignorant but don't dream big about Gema vote especially Murang'a types. They already dreaming PK-for-PM and future PORK there. And Uhuru has not even handed over the njora.

3. KAMBA is easy - because Kalonzo is already under BBI spell. Mutua seem happy for some reason - likely eyeing CS job like most folks too young to retire. Sonko is potent force - but easily intimidated like Waititu with gazillion skeletons. Anyway assuming Sonko stick out his neck - Kamba split as Wiper will have none of it. Raila and Jubilee will not ruin the party for Wiper in Machaa - so obviously Sonko-Ruto are big threat to Wiper and Chap Chap. Most Kamba cremé are still Wiper or BBI.

I see fierce Kamba battle but lean BBI side for entrenched Kalonzo.

4. LUHYA if Raila strike deal with Mdvd-Weta for ODM to keep off Kabuchai & Matungu it bad news for Ruto. ANC and FORD-K are already cooperating in Western so it tough for Ruto to split them. Mdvd with DPM BBI carrot is desperate to lock down at least lower western. Weta has no known strategy.

Luhya look bad for Ruto.

5. SOMALI with the raw BBI deal are gone with hustler probably for good. The fools have 2 new MPs - despite their senile mzee chairing the taskforce. They have meagre 0.5% ASAL fund extended by 10 years - instead of whining they should visiting Israel and importing agritechs. Wonder if Al Shaabab can let them.

6. GUSII are BBI.

7. BRIBERY + GOODIES will be big. Already Sonko is dishing xmas. Uhuru-Raila better open the taps via NMS and new governor. Feb is mere 2 months so expect Kibra redux of red carpet and feasting at Radisson Karen Blue. Ruto brazen bribery likely to be countered earlier than later unlike Kibra.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit if you give Dennis Waweru half Kikuyu (15%), Luo (15%), most Luhya (10%), most Kamba (10%)- you can even keep Duale and his Zoomalis. Hehe. Few Gusii and Nubian topups you are done. You can bring back Mariga to deputize Bishop Wanjiru.

Are you placing another bet?

I am the betting type yes - but need someone with a backbone to bet against. those are in short supply here.

[Nefertiti]

Waweru will never make it.Project however packaged cannot make it.Ask Moi in 2002.Nairobi will see a protest vote and anyone including miguna or even a dog will win.Not everything is tribal or racial..those are luxuries that people enjoy in good times.Ask Trump.kenya now is in angry,broke and hopeless mode..the worst you can do is to be seen as pro government .The hustler nation revolution akin to narc revolution is underfoot..it serious.Corona is real.Run run run away from uhuru and his gov...the coming economic and health carnage is unprecedented.Revolution even in Uganda is a foot.People are angry,broke,hopeless and fearful.The worse you can sell now is incumbency.Ruto has brilliant cast himself against deep state and the system...at the opportunite time.Raila is dying to be  a project at wrong time.2017 jubilee did well with 6 percent average growth..the best ever.This time economy will tank below zero..millions are being sent to poverty and the rest are hopeless in situation developed countries are hopeless

That true generally- but it almost 2 years to general elections. Vaccine is here so don't hold your breath. Timing and natural tragedy are almost impossible to bank on unlike tribalism or machinery. It more likely than not that things will get better than worse by 2022.

Covid might aid hustler in Nairobi but is it enough? Kibra genius move flopped big - tribe is not so easy to discount. You bet on the rock-star excitement then - now you are betting on misery. After Diani this time hubris is more on your side than Handshake.

NARC "revolution" was tribalism 101 - nothing like hustler classism.

[Nefertiti]

BBI is NARC 2... complete with the swara - 5 big positions - already split.


Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Ngilu unite against DP Ruto
Thursday, December 24, 2020


From right: Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka with Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Ford-Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula and ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi when they met yesterday at Stoni Athi Resort in Machakos County. Photo credit: Pool

The three National Super Alliance (Nasa) leaders were joined by Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu at the Stoni Athi Resort in Machakos County with the group said to have the blessings of President Kenyatta.

Mr Musyoka said that Kanu chairman Gideon Moi and Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) leader Isaac Ruto were also part of the group.

The messaging in the speeches was anti-Ruto, the estranged Kenyatta deputy seen to be the biggest competition against the BBI team led by the President and ODM leader Raila Odinga, with speakers painting him as not the best candidate to succeed Mr Kenyatta. Upon arrival at Stoni Athi, Mr Musyoka, Mr Wetang’ula, Mr Mudavadi and Mrs Ngilu first held a closed-door meeting that lasted about an hour before emerging to meet the Ukambani elected leaders, mostly from Wiper Party.

Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula criticised the DP for allegedly hoodwinking Kenyans that he could improve the country’s economic fortunes when he has been part of the failed policies of the Jubilee government.

“Kenya is where it is today because the government in power borrowed heavily, then we have a guy who has been in the kitchen for the last eight years pretending he can now cook better food for the country,” Mr Mudavadi said in direct reference to DP Ruto’s presidential bid.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kalonzo-mudavadi-wetang-ula-and-ngilu-unite-against-dp-ruto-3237940

[RV Pundit]

They are trying to isolate Raila Raila otherwise Nairobi waweru or PK are dead on arrival even if they secure Raila support.Raila struggled in kibera.NMS are applying lipstick to a pig...Nairobi requires serious investment on mass housing, water and sewage..not cabro

[RV Kirgit]

They are trying to isolate Raila Raila otherwise Nairobi waweru or PK are dead on arrival even if they secure Raila support.Raila struggled in kibera.NMS are applying lipstick to a pig...Nairobi requires serious investment on mass housing, water and sewage..not cabro

They probably looking for additional money in Nairobi county as debt spree hit dead end.

Any new infrastructure under jubilee is guaranteed to be mediocre. Look at new elevated ways like lagos or some USA concrete museum. Doomed infrastructure that only feed the soul of a car!

[Nefertiti]

They are trying to isolate Raila Raila otherwise Nairobi waweru or PK are dead on arrival even if they secure Raila support.Raila struggled in kibera.NMS are applying lipstick to a pig...Nairobi requires serious investment on mass housing, water and sewage..not cabro

They probably looking for additional money in Nairobi county as debt spree hit dead end.

Any new infrastructure under jubilee is guaranteed to be mediocre. Look at new elevated ways like lagos or some USA concrete museum. Doomed infrastructure that only feed the soul of a car!

  please repost in English. What "new infrastructure" is mediocre? Sorry I don't follow.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - I know your crystal ball is useless without clear numbers. Hope Ngunyi and Wolf help you out soon. Here's Robina's read:

Ruto's biggest asset is covid misery - akin to a vulture during famine - otherwise BBI checkmated hustler narrative and left him at mercy of tribal coalition where Raila has deftly run circles around him.

Nairobi seem like BBI lineup will finish Ruto - as Big 4 have split the swara - ANC Matungu, Ford-K Kabuchai, Wiper Machaa - and leave Uhuru-Raila to square with Ruto in Nairobi. You see greedy Ruto is enemy numero uno everywhere. Just last week he picked pointless fight with Kalonzo at Kabaka funeral.

Judas Sakaja is effectively katikati - has strategically chickened out. ODM, Wiper, ANC are not fielding and will back Jubilee pick. Jubilee of course will field Dennis Waweru likely with Kamba runningmate. They must assuage Kamba after hanging Sonko. If Sonko strikes deal with Uhuru to go underground and continue drug business in peace - as i suspect - Kamba bulk will go Jubilee-BBI. PK is onto big league now.

Kikuyu-Kamba Jubilee ticket is great for everyone in BBI tent...

1. Uhuru - he gets Kikuyu brats another mnofu and markets PK in the process
2. Raila - "sacrifices" once again to help Uhuru and Kikuyus as he did in revenues. Solidifies anti-Ruto team
3. Kalonzo - saves face by getting something for Kamba after Sonko; helps him in Machaa
4. Mdvd/Weta - get an easier time in Western and escape Kibra shame of laughable 200 votes
5. Sakaja - Sonko dies and no Luhya to outflank him in 2022. The man is a chameleon and will not risk his senatorship. He knows Waweru is far easier sport in 2022 unlike Sonko. This snake will lead Waweru campaign while getting ready to knife him in 2022

Hustler will field Bishop Wanjiru likely with Luhya runningmate. Because Mdvds and Weta seem desperate to remain in BBI tent - so they will drum Waweru - this will force Ruto to pick Luhya as Wanjiru runningmate.

Ruto biggest blow will be Sonko rejection. I bet he already knows this. Sonko can smell the hyena desperation and it disgust him - Ruto has literally NOTHING to offer him. Sonko won 2013-17 by bagging Kikuyu + Kamba + slums ... any association with Ruto first destroys this winning coalition - then puts him at loggerheads with Kalonzo - and worst lands him in the lethal deep state guillotine as corrupt drug dealer.

Sonko vs Ruto interest are miles apart... it no-brainer Sonko will continue to distance himself from Ruto. Nothing personal. Muthama "strength" is Kamba nationalism and anti-Kikuyu venom - so with Kikuyu vantage post this make Muthama only as useful as his few millions.

Ruto other problem is Uhuru. There will be no Raila & ODM to attack as they will shield behind Waweru, Uhuru, PK and BBI. Sonko was Jubilee... so ODM will merely back Waweru in Handshake spirit - as Jubilee did in Diani. It will be amusing to see how MK kikuyu proverbs are received in the city.

Expect ugly battle of strange bedfellows. Hope Wanjiru has cremated her skeletons - another Kamangu fiasco can do her in badly - last time she merely lost a husband live at the podium

Six eye Jubilee ticket for Nairobi governor race
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001398372/six-eye-jubilee-ticket-for-nairobi-governors-seat

[RV Pundit]

Chill until we have candidates.Will Raila back Waweru or will Kidero throw himself in.Will Sonko run again.That will determine Ruto moves.If Kidero runs then Sonko will be competitive otherwise we may see kikuyu contest btw Wanjiru and Waweru..with Wanjiru beating the plastic waweru

[Nowayhaha]

Chill until we have candidates.Will Raila back Waweru or will Kidero throw himself in.Will Sonko run again.That will determine Ruto moves.If Kidero runs then Sonko will be competitive otherwise we may see kikuyu contest btw Wanjiru and Waweru..with Wanjiru beating the plastic waweru

Precisely RV, We have to wait and see how it puns out , the cases, candidates and once IEBC clears the candidates all these Robinas  premature ejaculation wont lead to nowhere. It just proves one thing her arguments have no concrete foundation.

[Nefertiti]

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Let's hope you won't wait to parrot the news after the fact like my grandpa's 39 year old Sanyo

[Nefertiti]

Pundit i don't see Bishop Wanjiru anywhere- is hustler fielding Waititu? Or has Ruto chickened 

Told you Handshake man is Denis Waweru. With NASA runningmate.

[RV Pundit]

Wanjiru unless her degrees has issues will run..I bet