Raila address huge gathering with Oparanya

[RV Pundit]

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This BBI will end in premium tears. Apparently he had gone to West Pokot to sell BBI

https://www.facebook.com/Kimanyaal/videos/812165542952478/

https://www.facebook.com/watch?ref=search&v=391298138665915&external_log_id=96b2ec9d-18f1-496c-81d6-2835c8926018&q=Raila%20in%20west%20pokot

[Nefertiti]

Tundu Lissu had massive rallies with gargantuan crowds as he excited all hustlers in Arusha and Dar. He wound up with 13%. Now I hear he was arrested for inciting PEV. Crowds are not useful indicator of anything- the strategic LEVERS are being cooked at Naivasha and Parliament.

If you are not at the table, know you are on the menu.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Tundu Lissu had massive rallies with gargantuan crowds as he excited all hustlers in Arusha and Dar. He wound up with 13%. Now I hear he was arrested for inciting PEV. Crowds are not useful indicator of anything- the strategic LEVERS are being cooked at Naivasha and Parliament.

If you are not at the table, know you are on the menu.

Pastoral communities have shoved it up you know whos.... BBI wont make it, you place all your bets in one basket you reap tears

[Nefertiti]

Tundu Lissu had massive rallies with gargantuan crowds as he excited all hustlers in Arusha and Dar. He wound up with 13%. Now I hear he was arrested for inciting PEV. Crowds are not useful indicator of anything- the strategic LEVERS are being cooked at Naivasha and Parliament.

If you are not at the table, know you are on the menu.

Pastoral communities have shoved it up you know whos.... BBI wont make it, you place all your bets in one basket you reap tears

Yes URP is mostly No. They are vague on their issues - saying the ASAL affirmative advantage has been ignored, and that the 70 seats are going to Nairobi and the populous counties. That's the only cohesive block behind Mobutu right now - I saw Keynan in that presser warning Duale to stick to pastoralist issues only not senate and judiciary. I don't see the pastoralists resisting 35% given their dismal chances at dominating GoK. Ole Lenku and Lonyangapuo have already called it for yes. Maa nationalist Ledama ole Kina's grievance politics are aimed at his base.

[Nowayhaha]

Tundu Lissu had massive rallies with gargantuan crowds as he excited all hustlers in Arusha and Dar. He wound up with 13%. Now I hear he was arrested for inciting PEV. Crowds are not useful indicator of anything- the strategic LEVERS are being cooked at Naivasha and Parliament.

If you are not at the table, know you are on the menu.

So only elected leaders are an indicator of popularity. The reality check which will hit you will be very severe it will take years for you recover

[Nowayhaha]

Tundu Lissu had massive rallies with gargantuan crowds as he excited all hustlers in Arusha and Dar. He wound up with 13%. Now I hear he was arrested for inciting PEV. Crowds are not useful indicator of anything- the strategic LEVERS are being cooked at Naivasha and Parliament.

If you are not at the table, know you are on the menu.

Pastoral communities have shoved it up you know whos.... BBI wont make it, you place all your bets in one basket you reap tears

That is Eastern and North Eastern joining Rift Valley and Central , once Coast comes out clear on their stand  remember just like NE their interests are religious rights and overxoming marginalization. Raila will realise he just made Ruto a president without even trying as much as he expected

[Nefertiti]

Tundu Lissu had massive rallies with gargantuan crowds as he excited all hustlers in Arusha and Dar. He wound up with 13%. Now I hear he was arrested for inciting PEV. Crowds are not useful indicator of anything- the strategic LEVERS are being cooked at Naivasha and Parliament.

If you are not at the table, know you are on the menu.

So only elected leaders are an indicator of popularity. The reality check which will hit you will be very severe it will take years for you recover

Not really- just that elected leaders are a big indicator of ground and community interest. From the Duale-Roba-Nanok presser I see genuine pastoralist grievances - especially the crossing of party ranks. Because those are their elected leaders. You can't have Raila or Mdvd holding rallies there with 10 out of 60 MPs claiming he to speak for NFD. Another good metric is credible opinion polls - from well known Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA - not from briefcase  company in London. Even better is by-election results. Mobutu despite ukora of buying out ODM candidates has some credible following in Wajir, say. He won byelections against Kanu there in 2018/9.

See? hakuna karata. Crowds and Facebook likes are hardly bankable. Rank them way below byelections, polls, leaders.

And am dying to be shell-shocked by hustler wave in Msambweni - a real road test free from spin. I haven't seen any gloating updates from Pundit so it probably looking bad.

[RV Pundit]

Eti crowds are no longer an indicator. Robina don't twist and turn. Raila had a crowd of 10 kids. Uhuru had crowd of his security forces.

Crowds are big indicator of political support. Esp if they were not bought. Those are crowds that took their time off to attend a rally - nothing could be more an indicator than that.

Now Tundu Lissu - you'd have to understand TZ issues and where the crowds were. I was in Uganda - during last election - if you stay in towns - you'd think Museveni is so unpopular - but go to the village or charo - and he carries 90 of the vote. This was also true for Moi - use to get little to zero in urban centers - but was the king of villages.

I suspect Tundu Lissues 2m votes came from Urban Areas - and was totally kaput in rural areas. Rural areas require someone who is always there - for Tindu who just arrived in Belgium - tough luck.

All these things matter - but you have to be careful - on the noise.

A bought crowd or rented crowd is not a good indicator.
A rigged by-election or one marred by low turn out or where local issues are key is not good indicator for national issues.
A compromised opinion poll is useless.
A social media account like Uhuru one that has 1,000 people just posting his pictures and generic message is noise.
A rented or intimidated leader - is of no use - if he cannot influence the people.

Ultimately you've have to have keen eye to genuinely know who is winning or losing in area A or B.

Raila is doing badly. BBI is doing badly.

[Nefertiti]

These may all be true. Kibra you drew a blank because Mobutu bribery was as brazen as the ODM thuggery. It would be really silly for Raila to play fair under the circumstances. Play a clean game and the score would be the same dog-beating. Even now as Mobutu bribe folks all over with wheelbarrows - it fair & square for Raila to employ GoK-sponsored BBI and machinery. Whining about DCI or KRA while praising loot distribution program is just hypocrisy. Everyone is dealt some good and bad cards.

Now crowds - you have 3 types right there. Mobutu crowds are well-oiled or mobilized - which is good for optics - but not as effective for ground (vote) as BBI. Hiyo tu.

Eti crowds are no longer an indicator. Robina don't twist and turn. Raila had a crowd of 10 kids. Uhuru had crowd of his security forces.

Crowds are big indicator of political support. Esp if they were not bought. Those are crowds that took their time off to attend a rally - nothing could be more an indicator than that.

Now Tundu Lissu - you'd have to understand TZ issues and where the crowds were. I was in Uganda - during last election - if you stay in towns - you'd think Museveni is so unpopular - but go to the village or charo - and he carries 90 of the vote. This was also true for Moi - use to get little to zero in urban centers - but was the king of villages.

I suspect Tundu Lissues 2m votes came from Urban Areas - and was totally kaput in rural areas. Rural areas require someone who is always there - for Tindu who just arrived in Belgium - tough luck.

All these things matter - but you have to be careful - on the noise.

A bought crowd or rented crowd is not a good indicator.
A rigged by-election or one marred by low turn out or where local issues are key is not good indicator for national issues.
A compromised opinion poll is useless.
A social media account like Uhuru one that has 1,000 people just posting his pictures and generic message is noise.
A rented or intimidated leader - is of no use - if he cannot influence the people.

Ultimately you've have to have keen eye to genuinely know who is winning or losing in area A or B.

Raila is doing badly. BBI is doing badly.

[RV Pundit]

You cannot scale CID/BBI/Kibera violence/ - and that is Raila and gov problem.

It can work in a small area - but countrywide - you better find a popular cause - BBI is dead on arrival - promised so much and delivered so little - it took Ruto exactly 5 minutes to rapture it.

Ruto is having an easy time - because his hustler nation is popular and has momentum.
The momentos..will carry him to statehouse.
The rest of your lamentation make for a sad reading...the twisting and turning.

These may all be true. Kibra you drew a blank because Mobutu bribery was as brazen as the ODM thuggery. It would be really silly for Raila to play fair under the circumstances. Play a clean game and the score would be the same dog-beating. Even now as Mobutu bribe folks all over with wheelbarrows - it fair & square for Raila to employ GoK-sponsored BBI and machinery. Whining about DCI or KRA while praising loot distribution program is just hypocrisy. Everyone is dealt some good and bad cards.

Now crowds - you have 3 types right there. Mobutu crowds are well-oiled or mobilized - which is good for optics - but not as effective for ground (vote) as BBI. Hiyo tu.

Eti crowds are no longer an indicator. Robina don't twist and turn. Raila had a crowd of 10 kids. Uhuru had crowd of his security forces.

Crowds are big indicator of political support. Esp if they were not bought. Those are crowds that took their time off to attend a rally - nothing could be more an indicator than that.

Now Tundu Lissu - you'd have to understand TZ issues and where the crowds were. I was in Uganda - during last election - if you stay in towns - you'd think Museveni is so unpopular - but go to the village or charo - and he carries 90 of the vote. This was also true for Moi - use to get little to zero in urban centers - but was the king of villages.

I suspect Tundu Lissues 2m votes came from Urban Areas - and was totally kaput in rural areas. Rural areas require someone who is always there - for Tindu who just arrived in Belgium - tough luck.

All these things matter - but you have to be careful - on the noise.

A bought crowd or rented crowd is not a good indicator.
A rigged by-election or one marred by low turn out or where local issues are key is not good indicator for national issues.
A compromised opinion poll is useless.
A social media account like Uhuru one that has 1,000 people just posting his pictures and generic message is noise.
A rented or intimidated leader - is of no use - if he cannot influence the people.

Ultimately you've have to have keen eye to genuinely know who is winning or losing in area A or B.

Raila is doing badly. BBI is doing badly.

[Nefertiti]

If wishes were horses. Hustler SPIN will soon get real road test in Msambweni. It just smoke to me - but let see the outcome.

You cannot scale CID/BBI/Kibera violence/ - and that is Raila and gov problem.

It can work in a small area - but countrywide - you better find a popular cause - BBI is dead on arrival - promised so much and delivered so little - it took Ruto exactly 5 minutes to rapture it.

Ruto is having an easy time - because his hustler nation is popular and has momentum.
The momentos..will carry him to statehouse.
The rest of your lamentation make for a sad reading...the twisting and turning.

These may all be true. Kibra you drew a blank because Mobutu bribery was as brazen as the ODM thuggery. It would be really silly for Raila to play fair under the circumstances. Play a clean game and the score would be the same dog-beating. Even now as Mobutu bribe folks all over with wheelbarrows - it fair & square for Raila to employ GoK-sponsored BBI and machinery. Whining about DCI or KRA while praising loot distribution program is just hypocrisy. Everyone is dealt some good and bad cards.

Now crowds - you have 3 types right there. Mobutu crowds are well-oiled or mobilized - which is good for optics - but not as effective for ground (vote) as BBI. Hiyo tu.

Eti crowds are no longer an indicator. Robina don't twist and turn. Raila had a crowd of 10 kids. Uhuru had crowd of his security forces.

Crowds are big indicator of political support. Esp if they were not bought. Those are crowds that took their time off to attend a rally - nothing could be more an indicator than that.

Now Tundu Lissu - you'd have to understand TZ issues and where the crowds were. I was in Uganda - during last election - if you stay in towns - you'd think Museveni is so unpopular - but go to the village or charo - and he carries 90 of the vote. This was also true for Moi - use to get little to zero in urban centers - but was the king of villages.

I suspect Tundu Lissues 2m votes came from Urban Areas - and was totally kaput in rural areas. Rural areas require someone who is always there - for Tindu who just arrived in Belgium - tough luck.

All these things matter - but you have to be careful - on the noise.

A bought crowd or rented crowd is not a good indicator.
A rigged by-election or one marred by low turn out or where local issues are key is not good indicator for national issues.
A compromised opinion poll is useless.
A social media account like Uhuru one that has 1,000 people just posting his pictures and generic message is noise.
A rented or intimidated leader - is of no use - if he cannot influence the people.

Ultimately you've have to have keen eye to genuinely know who is winning or losing in area A or B.

Raila is doing badly. BBI is doing badly.

[RV Pundit]

You're really anal about Msambweni. I don't see any excitement from both camps.

If wishes were horses. Hustler SPIN will soon get real road test in Msambweni. It just smoke to me - but let see the outcome.

[Nowayhaha]

This BBI will end in premium tears. Apparently he had gone to West Pokot to sell BBI

https://www.facebook.com/Kimanyaal/videos/812165542952478/

https://www.facebook.com/watch?ref=search&v=391298138665915&external_log_id=96b2ec9d-18f1-496c-81d6-2835c8926018&q=Raila%20in%20west%20pokot

On track