GEMA will bag 20 of 70 new MPs in BBI

[Nefertiti]

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Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

[RV Pundit]

Keep trying to win GEMA over to BBI

I believe the seats will be decided by some formulae - assuming BBI handchieth was going anywhere- and if formulae is 2nd highest loser - then it could mean anything - because popolous const could present 10 candidates - while less popolous could have two...both coming close...so those 70 seats will go anywhere.

Anyway let wait for IEBC to do boundary demarcation - I think they've been allocated 200M for the exercise in this budget.

Remember of the 27 protected constituencies GEMA (kikuyu) have the majority - those are 8 out of the 27 - 1/3

Siakago (now Mbeere North), Ndaragwa, Tetu, Murkurweini, Othaya and Kangema , Mathioya, Lamu West- are amongst those that don't meet population quota

[Nowayhaha]

Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

Nominated MPs that is and you have seen how it has played in the senate.
GEMA are not that gullible , In 1992 after being defeated in the Kangema MP elections , Moi created a new Constituency for Kamorho called Mathioya come 1997 he still lost the elections .  Meaning once rejected in GEMA land no amount of appeasing will make them change their mind.
This goes way back pre-indipendence time , Senior Chief Koinange having realised the people were with Kenyatta had to change tune and align with Jommo to a level he married his daughter off to Jommo.

[Nefertiti]

Keep trying to win GEMA over to BBI

I believe the seats will be decided by some formulae - assuming BBI handchieth was going anywhere- and if formulae is 2nd highest loser - then it could mean anything - because popolous const could present 10 candidates - while less popolous could have two...both coming close...so those 70 seats will go anywhere.

Anyway let wait for IEBC to do boundary demarcation - I think they've been allocated 200M for the exercise in this budget.

Remember of the 27 protected constituencies GEMA (kikuyu) have the majority - those are 8 out of the 27 - 1/3

Siakago (now Mbeere North), Ndaragwa, Tetu, Murkurweini, Othaya and Kangema , Mathioya, Lamu West- are amongst those that don't meet population quota

Candidates can be many or few in any order not just popularity. Such depends on many factors including party strategy. Protected constituencies remain protected. This article is based on the predictable formula in BBI - obviously Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru take lion share. Raila has basically bent over for Uhuru - and now I hear some URP noises from Duales.

[Nefertiti]

Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

Nominated MPs that is and you have seen how it has played in the senate.
GEMA are not that gullible , In 1992 after being defeated in the Kangema MP elections , Moi created a new Constituency for Kamorho called Mathioya come 1997 he still lost the elections .  Meaning once rejected in GEMA land no amount of appeasing will make them change their mind.
This goes way back pre-indipendence time , Senior Chief Koinange having realised the people were with Kenyatta had to change tune and align with Jommo to a level he married his daughter off to Jommo.

I don't follow: Gema have never "rejected" BBI cause duhh it a new document. Even hustler is new. The acceptance or rejection of BBI or hustler is the ongoing derby. Mobutu has PROMISED wheelbarrows and pro- poor policies - while Raila is GUARANTEEING those same policies in katiba. URP is all Mobutu has now.. in Gema there is really nothing on his agenda.

[Nowayhaha]

Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

Nominated MPs that is and you have seen how it has played in the senate.
GEMA are not that gullible , In 1992 after being defeated in the Kangema MP elections , Moi created a new Constituency for Kamorho called Mathioya come 1997 he still lost the elections .  Meaning once rejected in GEMA land no amount of appeasing will make them change their mind.
This goes way back pre-indipendence time , Senior Chief Koinange having realised the people were with Kenyatta had to change tune and align with Jommo to a level he married his daughter off to Jommo.

I don't follow: Gema have never "rejected" BBI cause duhh it a new document. Even hustler is new. The acceptance or rejection of BBI or hustler is the ongoing derby. Mobutu has PROMISED wheelbarrows and pro- poor policies - while Raila is GUARANTEEING those same policies in katiba. URP is all Mobutu has now.. in Gema there is really nothing on his agenda.

Gema rejected Uhuru(their son) in 2002 and Mudavadi in 2013 (Uhuru Protege)
Politics is never new and has been in existance since time meomorial. You need to familiarize with GEMA pysche and you will understand why they behave the way they do. Essentially they are united in a common cause to defeat an enemy at any cost , in colonial times against  whiteman at a cost of many lives , in 60s 70a against Odinga and his supporters at a cost of never getting what they fought for , in 80s 90a against Moi at a cost of being pushed to the  abyss of poverty i  n 2000s and 2010s against Raila at a cost of nothing.
Now not unless Raila exits from the political arena expect them to always view him as an enemy. ODM pundits have a clever way of putting it , they call it GEMA have been programmed to hate Raila.

[Nefertiti]

Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

Nominated MPs that is and you have seen how it has played in the senate.
GEMA are not that gullible , In 1992 after being defeated in the Kangema MP elections , Moi created a new Constituency for Kamorho called Mathioya come 1997 he still lost the elections .  Meaning once rejected in GEMA land no amount of appeasing will make them change their mind.
This goes way back pre-indipendence time , Senior Chief Koinange having realised the people were with Kenyatta had to change tune and align with Jommo to a level he married his daughter off to Jommo.

I don't follow: Gema have never "rejected" BBI cause duhh it a new document. Even hustler is new. The acceptance or rejection of BBI or hustler is the ongoing derby. Mobutu has PROMISED wheelbarrows and pro- poor policies - while Raila is GUARANTEEING those same policies in katiba. URP is all Mobutu has now.. in Gema there is really nothing on his agenda.

Gema rejected Uhuru(their son) in 2002 and Mudavadi in 2013 (Uhuru Protege)
Politics is never new and has been in existance since time meomorial. You need to familiarize with GEMA pysche and you will understand why they behave the way they do. Essentially they are united in a common cause to defeat an enemy at any cost , in colonial times against  whiteman at a cost of many lives , in 60s 70a against Odinga and his supporters at a cost of never getting what they fought for , in 80s 90a against Moi at a cost of being pushed to the  abyss of poverty i  n 2000s and 2010s against Raila at a cost of nothing.
Now not unless Raila exits from the political arena expect them to always view him as an enemy. ODM pundits have a clever way of putting it , they call it GEMA have been programmed to hate Raila.

I don't argue with history- only your false parallels with today's politics. 60-70s Gema rallied to Jomo (Gema) against Jaramogi (non-Gema). 2002 Uhuru lost to Kibaki (Gema vs Gema). 2013 Raila lost to Uhuru (Gema vs non-Gema). There has never been a Kalenjin vs Luo scenario without a Gema frontrunner. This is the PRESENT contest that will be settled in 2022. Don't jump the gun.

BBI and hustler are the competing campaigns... appealing to the poor and/or tribes as usual. Raila has ducked being the scarecrow in Mt Kenya by hiding behind BBI. Mobutu is struggling to maintain the hustler vs dynasty narrative. All the youth and Gema "grievances" are addressed in plain English in this Raila manifesto. Sijui atasema nini sasa - Raila has a blank checkbook - hata pastoralists wako na nyinyi shingo upande.

[Nowayhaha]

I will break it down to you in simpler terms,
2007, 2013 and 2017 it was GEMA voting against Raila. In 2022 it will be no different .

Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

Nominated MPs that is and you have seen how it has played in the senate.
GEMA are not that gullible , In 1992 after being defeated in the Kangema MP elections , Moi created a new Constituency for Kamorho called Mathioya come 1997 he still lost the elections .  Meaning once rejected in GEMA land no amount of appeasing will make them change their mind.
This goes way back pre-indipendence time , Senior Chief Koinange having realised the people were with Kenyatta had to change tune and align with Jommo to a level he married his daughter off to Jommo.

I don't follow: Gema have never "rejected" BBI cause duhh it a new document. Even hustler is new. The acceptance or rejection of BBI or hustler is the ongoing derby. Mobutu has PROMISED wheelbarrows and pro- poor policies - while Raila is GUARANTEEING those same policies in katiba. URP is all Mobutu has now.. in Gema there is really nothing on his agenda.

Gema rejected Uhuru(their son) in 2002 and Mudavadi in 2013 (Uhuru Protege)
Politics is never new and has been in existance since time meomorial. You need to familiarize with GEMA pysche and you will understand why they behave the way they do. Essentially they are united in a common cause to defeat an enemy at any cost , in colonial times against  whiteman at a cost of many lives , in 60s 70a against Odinga and his supporters at a cost of never getting what they fought for , in 80s 90a against Moi at a cost of being pushed to the  abyss of poverty i  n 2000s and 2010s against Raila at a cost of nothing.
Now not unless Raila exits from the political arena expect them to always view him as an enemy. ODM pundits have a clever way of putting it , they call it GEMA have been programmed to hate Raila.

I don't argue with history- only your false parallels with today's politics. 60-70s Gema rallied to Jomo (Gema) against Jaramogi (non-Gema). 2002 Uhuru lost to Kibaki (Gema vs Gema). 2013 Raila lost to Uhuru (Gema vs non-Gema). There has never been a Kalenjin vs Luo scenario without a Gema frontrunner. This is the PRESENT contest that will be settled in 2022. Don't jump the gun.

BBI and hustler are the competing campaigns... appealing to the poor and/or tribes as usual. Raila has ducked being the scarecrow in Mt Kenya by hiding behind BBI. Mobutu is struggling to maintain the hustler vs dynasty narrative. All the youth and Gema "grievances" are addressed in plain English in this Raila manifesto. Sijui atasema nini sasa - Raila has a blank checkbook - hata pastoralists wako na nyinyi shingo upande.

[Nefertiti]

PURE WHITE LIE. It was Gema voting for their own - it irrelevant if the opponent is Jaramogi, Moi, Raila or Mobutu. In 2022 Gema will decide who of 2 ALIENS has a better proposition. Haiya please note Mobutu is not Gema... This transparent fiction is the smoke & mirrors in hustler abracadadra.

I will break it down to you in simpler terms,
2007, 2013 and 2017 it was GEMA voting against Raila. In 2022 it will be no different .

Kiambu - 11 slots - give Gema 10 - one goes to Gusii diaspora in Kiambaa area
Nairobi - 16 slots - give Gema 30% 5
Nakuru - 5 slots - give Gema majority 3 in town, Naivasha. 2 others go to town Luos and Kuresoi Kalenjin
Kajiado - 3 slots - Gema 1
Laikipia - 2 slots - Gema 1


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/rift-valley-to-take-lion-s-share-of-new-seats-if-referendum-passed--2729212

Nominated MPs that is and you have seen how it has played in the senate.
GEMA are not that gullible , In 1992 after being defeated in the Kangema MP elections , Moi created a new Constituency for Kamorho called Mathioya come 1997 he still lost the elections .  Meaning once rejected in GEMA land no amount of appeasing will make them change their mind.
This goes way back pre-indipendence time , Senior Chief Koinange having realised the people were with Kenyatta had to change tune and align with Jommo to a level he married his daughter off to Jommo.

I don't follow: Gema have never "rejected" BBI cause duhh it a new document. Even hustler is new. The acceptance or rejection of BBI or hustler is the ongoing derby. Mobutu has PROMISED wheelbarrows and pro- poor policies - while Raila is GUARANTEEING those same policies in katiba. URP is all Mobutu has now.. in Gema there is really nothing on his agenda.

Gema rejected Uhuru(their son) in 2002 and Mudavadi in 2013 (Uhuru Protege)
Politics is never new and has been in existance since time meomorial. You need to familiarize with GEMA pysche and you will understand why they behave the way they do. Essentially they are united in a common cause to defeat an enemy at any cost , in colonial times against  whiteman at a cost of many lives , in 60s 70a against Odinga and his supporters at a cost of never getting what they fought for , in 80s 90a against Moi at a cost of being pushed to the  abyss of poverty i  n 2000s and 2010s against Raila at a cost of nothing.
Now not unless Raila exits from the political arena expect them to always view him as an enemy. ODM pundits have a clever way of putting it , they call it GEMA have been programmed to hate Raila.

I don't argue with history- only your false parallels with today's politics. 60-70s Gema rallied to Jomo (Gema) against Jaramogi (non-Gema). 2002 Uhuru lost to Kibaki (Gema vs Gema). 2013 Raila lost to Uhuru (Gema vs non-Gema). There has never been a Kalenjin vs Luo scenario without a Gema frontrunner. This is the PRESENT contest that will be settled in 2022. Don't jump the gun.

BBI and hustler are the competing campaigns... appealing to the poor and/or tribes as usual. Raila has ducked being the scarecrow in Mt Kenya by hiding behind BBI. Mobutu is struggling to maintain the hustler vs dynasty narrative. All the youth and Gema "grievances" are addressed in plain English in this Raila manifesto. Sijui atasema nini sasa - Raila has a blank checkbook - hata pastoralists wako na nyinyi shingo upande.

[Nefertiti]

Noway - let imagine in 2013 it was Mobutu vs Uhuru (without Raila). Do you think Gema would have voted Uhuru or Mobutu?

[Nefertiti]

BBI winners

GEMA are really doing well with BBI with 1M1V, 1M1S
1. First Gema bag 20 of 70 new MPs - these are permanent seats as in Kenya will now have 360 elected MPs. This corrects 2012 Ligare mischief that shortchanged Gema
2. Gender topups will be by total number of votes  by each party. This mean GEMA party will benefit by having big headcount
3. Revenue share is now heavily biased to headcount

WOMEN are well catered for
1. Automatic 50% women in the Senate
2. Nominated women top-up for 1/3 MPs will only be for losing female candidates based on votes garnered. This stop flower-girls from getting nominated
3. Parties will have to nominate 1/3 women as candidates in party primaries which increase women chances to be elected and not nominated
4. Nominated top-up will have 15 year sunset clause. However gender parity in senate will continue

YOUTH have usual goodies: 7 year tax holiday, HELB 4 year grace period, youth commission to  mind their affairs in perpetuity

POLICE - police council is scrapped and National Police Service retained. IG has autonomy in running policework

ASAL get equalisation fund extended by 10 years

DEVOLUTION gets 35% of previous year's revenue  - this avoid the mischief of GoK to use 5 year old books to shortchange counties. There will be transitional transfer of functions to counties to match more devolution

MCAs get 5% WDF and CDF is now also entrenched in katiba

MCAs will be appointed as CEC same as MPs

[Nefertiti]

BBI losers

1. URP especially Kalenjin. 1M1S, 1M1V reverses the Ligare 2012 ukora that benefitted them with more seats and revenues. 35% devolution carrot is hard to resist so expect Lonyas, Phogs , Robas to back yes. Duales might also sneak to yes by citing hybrid and 35%

2. Medics - health commission remains a mere act of parliament unlike TSC for teachers. These fools slept on the job in 2010 while KNUT sweat it out at Bomas and Naivasha. Medics lack the clout to block BBI. On the other hand 35% devolution means governors have more cash to pay medics so it a mixed bag.


Basically expect 2010 redux of 70-30% - Mobutu retains URP-church-NGOs red-card coalition. Raila with D/PM and hybrid carrot strings yes coalition of Mdvds and Kalonzos. Pundit I see little hope for your boy - he is sulking at the lonely corner as Raila eat his lunch

[RV Pundit]

Ligare favoured kalenjin..you're an idiot.BBI 3.0 is going nowhere because it remains unpopular with Kenyans.That much I know

[Nefertiti]

Yup - Ligare commission applied poverty and desert bigger weight than headcount. Well Mobutu is spoiling for battle with noises about wage bill and imperial PORK. Let see those tee shirts already. Few issues - like kicking out IEBC - have been ironed out so you can dream on. Only Nandi MCAs are in court now.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit will this goon back Mobutu in No - as he get impeached. The "alley cat" 9 lives almost exhausted. Where will he run? - can he run again despite getting impeached?

Fresh Sonko impeachment bid gathers momentum

Nairobi MCAs have begun a fresh process of removing from office beleaguered Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko.

This is after 86 MCAs appended their signatures on a notice of impeachment motion, against a threshold of 42 signatures needed, paving way for a second attempt at impeaching the governor.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/fresh-sonko-impeachment-bid-3210852

[RV Pundit]

Ligale is a luhya - and why would he favour Kalenjin. kikuyus had the most protected const. If in your proposal GEMA will get 20 out of 70 - that is about where there population is - about 22-25% of kenya.

You're just desperate to ensare GEMA to back BBI.

BBI biggest enemy is not Ruto. IT IS TIME.

Ruto will not waste time with BBI.

Raila will run around but time is simply not on his side.

Let assume BBI collect 1M plus signatures - shouldn't be hard - Luos alone can do this.

1) IEBC needs 3 months - to complete signature verification and forward the bill to all counties - that process can be challenged - in court.
2) MCA needs 3 months - to do mandatory public participation and to consider the bill - that process can be challenged in court.
3)  Parliament require more than 3 months...the const bill first and 2nd reading must be 90 days apart....so assuming it's prioritized and all that...that is 4 months.
5)  Uhuru need to send it to IEBC -
6)  Uhuru need to finance IEBC to conduct election
7)  IEBC need to conduct the referendum
   The result and conduct of that referendum can be challenged in court.

As you can see before referendum - you're talking 1 yr - if everything is done like a clockwork.

If anybody succeed to injunct this process - and you bet - many court cases will be launched - and you can bet judiciary being main target will have a symapthetic ear to this - it DONE KAPUT.

So why launch a NO campaign on something that is DOA....already it need 1yr - well into 2022 - and then again - play delaying tactics in court - and it goes beyond 2022.

Yup - Ligare commission applied poverty and desert bigger weight than headcount. Well Mobutu is spoiling for battle with noises about wage bill and imperial PORK. Let see those tee shirts already. Few issues - like kicking out IEBC - have been ironed out so you can dream on. Only Nandi MCAs are in court now.

[Nefertiti]

It not his tribe nor the man but the Ligare COMMISSION in 2010 applied big weight to poverty and raw acreage - which favored pastoralists - NFD and MATUSA, Tugen, Pokot. Nandi and Kipsigis didn'r gain much. Mobutu was very happy - that how URP almost matched TNA and ODM - now he is sulking.

20 out of 70 is fair Gema % yes - it 1M1V1S as Gema wanted. Same for nominated MPs allocation will be by total party votes not elected MPs. Glad you agree - this point Kurias had been using to oppose parliamentary. Now Gema get more MPs, more revenues and executive PORK. What voodoo will Kuria and Ichung'wa sell?

About "TIME" [sic] - lol let me try again: BBI is Raila 2022 Manifesto - so few cases and noises about budget will merely be excellent excuse to bundle it with general elections. Camps are almost lined up roughly same as 2010. Right down to churches. Duales are watermelon now due to devolution and hybrid. Kalonzo is firm yes as he know PORK is pipedream - Mdvd has swallowed hard and accept DPM bird in hand below fellow softie PK.

Now these court straws - again your legal incompetence emerge. That Nandi MCA nonsense is laughable: 1M signatures means Kenyans have "read" and approved the bill - so how exactly would MCAs override/modify the bill without forcing a repeat of the signing? That just ignorance with nuisance value.

Ligale is a luhya - and why would he favour Kalenjin. kikuyus had the most protected const. If in your proposal GEMA will get 20 out of 70 - that is about where there population is - about 22-25% of kenya.

You're just desperate to ensare GEMA to back BBI.

BBI biggest enemy is not Ruto. IT IS TIME.

Ruto will not waste time with BBI.

Raila will run around but time is simply not on his side.

Let assume BBI collect 1M plus signatures - shouldn't be hard - Luos alone can do this.

1) IEBC needs 3 months - to complete signature verification and forward the bill to all counties - that process can be challenged - in court.
2) MCA needs 3 months - to do mandatory public participation and to consider the bill - that process can be challenged in court.
3)  Parliament require more than 3 months...the const bill first and 2nd reading must be 90 days apart....so assuming it's prioritized and all that...that is 4 months.
5)  Uhuru need to send it to IEBC -
6)  Uhuru need to finance IEBC to conduct election
7)  IEBC need to conduct the referendum
   The result and conduct of that referendum can be challenged in court.

As you can see before referendum - you're talking 1 yr - if everything is done like a clockwork.

If anybody succeed to injunct this process - and you bet - many court cases will be launched - and you can bet judiciary being main target will have a symapthetic ear to this - it DONE KAPUT.

So why launch a NO campaign on something that is DOA....already it need 1yr - well into 2022 - and then again - play delaying tactics in court - and it goes beyond 2022.

[Nefertiti]

Non-GEMA whine about GEMA BBI windfall

https://www.the-star.co.ke/siasa/2020-12-11-scramble-for-70-lucrative-constituencies/

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo and company are confused - you're backing BBI and yet still calling for talks.

You added your signature - so you believe in everything.

It going to end again in tears like 2010 if BBI was to end up with Ruto as president - they will immediately start another BBI.

[Nefertiti]

Kalonzo soon clocking 70 knows he almost retiring- BBI offer him VP or some hope - it pure self- interest not any principles. Otherwise non-RVGEMA have to swallow hard and accept 35% in lieu of MPs and such. Executive PORK by popular suffrage remain Big Boy affair. Obviously Uhuru has gorged a huge pound of flesh to allow 35% and hybrid.