Again we have avoid long polemics. We have established some tautologies. Some known known. Just like Raila can take Luos anyway - selling Raila in GEMA is near impossible mission. Only the dare-devil can attempt such. Maye some non-political player like Murathe. It's quickest way to political siberian - even those selling handshake/bbi -- are quick to put a rider that they are pro-Uhuru and distance themselves from Raila.
Ruto since post 2008 has been endeared himself to GEMA. That Ruto is now "loved" in GEMA is not a THEORY. It's a FACTOID. The more he hits Raila - the more he is loved in GEMA.
Don't mix facts and theories.
Let theorizes on Uhuru hidden card (for you it's WYSIWTG) and we meet again few months to review progress.
Otherwise don't get bogged down by the details of sijui warunguru
- look at the big picture.
Uhuru is one holding sway on the leaders but clearly has lost the ground.
Now there are theories that Uhuru hates Ruto so much - I find such theories improbable.
This is not the first time such games have been played. Raila was played by Moi - Uhuru and Ruto were in the know - but were acting Pro-Raila as they digged Saitoti grave in 2002. Raila got played by Kibaki - Kibaki was edging Raila in Mau and eventually he left him to hang dry. Kalonzo got played by Uhuru and Ruto. MaDVD.
Politics at high level is full of intrigues, treachery and all sort of games, fake smiles - be very careful.
Not that Ruto need Uhuru anymore - he clearly has GEMA ground - but don't be suprised when eventually it was all faked. Politician are accomplished actors.
Uhuru and GEMA for me will go two ways or 3 - Ruto, their own, a Matiangi. Raila is anathema...a suicide mission in all the dimensions - suicide pre and suicide post.
Yes Kenyattas are very smart. Is Uhuru playing Raila? - we can only theorize as commentators - but the evidence on ground shows otherwise. Raila threat is not so big to warrant all the BBI mobilization - and other 2 year anti-Mobutu shenanigans - afterall 2022 is Raila vs Mobutu not Raila vs Uhuru. Why would Raila raise drama for Uhuru now? He is not that powerful or stupid. Kichwa theory about Mobutu threat to dynasty is more logical than Pajero and Pundit's elaborate scheme by Uhuru(to) to string Raila.
We know both camps salivate for Gema but have different approaches. At March 2018 Mobutu had Gema locked down and sleepwalking to SH. Then Raila pulled trojan - all we have had since is exodus to Raila from Mobutu corner in the mountain. Not the reverse. Hustler narrative and camping in Murang'a is not a new foray but defense to stop Raila from taking over Gema as Kamandas and Warugurus market him. You keep wondering when Raila is touring the mountain... oh but he always there - disguised as BBI pesa mashinani. With Mobutu headstart, Raila going direct would be silly - instead folks must choose Raila-BBI vs wheelbarrow-Mobutu on ballot. Now instead of hammering Raila, Mobutu is forced to battle BBI Gema Brigade lead by Uhuru.
How many Gema do Mobutu vs Raila have? Well, how many Gema detest Raila enough - or fear Mobutu enough - to trade away cash for it? My bet is few would butt an eyelid for any of these aliens. It not a cupid or fraternal love but self- interest that guides the vote.
BBI referendum is not being dragged to 2022 to play Raila - rather it is to propel him - as bridge to SH. My brain tells me Kenyatta and dynasties are not keen to let Mobutu anywhere near power. Your man outplayed himself with mlolongo, hustler nation and other harebrained moves - this is a direct quote from Uhuru mouth @ Bomas - no need to take Robina word for it.
Yes we are agreed on 1) BBI referendum won't happen 2) Raila will try to use BBI for 2022 like he used OKOA kenya for 2017 - it's no brainer - promise 2nd tier PM/DPM.
Where we disagree is GEMA being on board Mv Raila Odinga.
That I would have to suspend all my thinking capacity.
That is no mean feat.
It basically insanity.
Uhuru obviously very smart and cunning.
You'll cry in the toilet in 2022.
And we shall talk again in 2024
You know what Raila interest in BBI.
Now use the same brain to try to decipher what is Uhuru interest in BBI - that he knows is all fake.
It obvious. Fool odinga until 2022..buy peace of mind...because at worse Tangatanga are friendly fire..then leave him to be mauled alive by Dr Ruto.