Dear Pundit, explain wheelbarrow MOAS - what is 65%

[Nefertiti]

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Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

[RV Pundit]

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

[Nefertiti]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

[Nefertiti]

BBI lineup: Raila PORK - Kalonzo VP - PK PM - Mdvd DPM - Matiang'i DPM

GEMA 15% (about 2/3 of 23%)
Luo 10%
Luhya 10% (about 2/3 of 15%)
Nairobi 8% (60% of total)
Kamba 8% (Kalonzo 90% sweep)
Gusii 4% (Matiang'i wave out of 5% total)
Coast 3% (<60% of 5.3% total)
NFD+MATUSA pastoralist 1% (20% of 5% total)

NET 60%

[RV Pundit]

You wished you hadn't broken NASA and now you're rebuilding it in your dreams.

BBI lineup: Raila PORK - Kalonzo VP - PK PM - Mdvd DPM - Matiang'i DPM

GEMA 15% (about 2/3 of 23%)
Luo 10%
Luhya 10% (about 2/3 of 15%)
Nairobi 8% (60% of total)
Kamba 8% (Kalonzo 90% sweep)
Gusii 4% (Matiang'i wave out of 5% total)
Coast 3% (<60% of 5.3% total)
NFD+MATUSA pastoralist 1% (20% of 5% total)

NET 60%

[Nowayhaha]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

20% of Gema is Dispora alone , or Meru - Alone . You are crazy if you think thats the most Ruto will get in Gema.

[Nowayhaha]

You wished you hadn't broken NASA and now you're rebuilding it in your dreams.

BBI lineup: Raila PORK - Kalonzo VP - PK PM - Mdvd DPM - Matiang'i DPM

GEMA 15% (about 2/3 of 23%)
Luo 10%
Luhya 10% (about 2/3 of 15%)
Nairobi 8% (60% of total)
Kamba 8% (Kalonzo 90% sweep)
Gusii 4% (Matiang'i wave out of 5% total)
Coast 3% (<60% of 5.3% total)
NFD+MATUSA pastoralist 1% (20% of 5% total)

NET 60%

So Railas Peesidency is pegged on winning 2/3s of GEMA. You got jokes and you call yourself a Proffesor.

[RV Pundit]

Excusez-moi, elle est professeur. I think she just admitted Raila has no path - it include winning GEMA 2/3 and retaining NASA - Kalonzo, maDVD, Matiangi...all of them aligned against the hustler.

So Railas Peesidency is pegged on winning 2/3s of GEMA. You got jokes and you call yourself a Proffesor.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina have your head recalibrated. Or knock it with a hammer and hear if their is an empty sound coming from inside.

[Nefertiti]

And you have Uhurutopia hangover

You wished you hadn't broken NASA and now you're rebuilding it in your dreams.

BBI lineup: Raila PORK - Kalonzo VP - PK PM - Mdvd DPM - Matiang'i DPM

GEMA 15% (about 2/3 of 23%)
Luo 10%
Luhya 10% (about 2/3 of 15%)
Nairobi 8% (60% of total)
Kamba 8% (Kalonzo 90% sweep)
Gusii 4% (Matiang'i wave out of 5% total)
Coast 3% (<60% of 5.3% total)
NFD+MATUSA pastoralist 1% (20% of 5% total)

NET 60%

[Nefertiti]

You wished you hadn't broken NASA and now you're rebuilding it in your dreams.

BBI lineup: Raila PORK - Kalonzo VP - PK PM - Mdvd DPM - Matiang'i DPM

GEMA 15% (about 2/3 of 23%)
Luo 10%
Luhya 10% (about 2/3 of 15%)
Nairobi 8% (60% of total)
Kamba 8% (Kalonzo 90% sweep)
Gusii 4% (Matiang'i wave out of 5% total)
Coast 3% (<60% of 5.3% total)
NFD+MATUSA pastoralist 1% (20% of 5% total)

NET 60%

So Railas Peesidency is pegged on winning 2/3s of GEMA. You got jokes and you call yourself a Proffesor.

Even with 1/3 GEMA Raila hits 53% - of course with PK, Uhuru and GEMA rank & file - he may get a clean sweep. Mobutu with Nyoro give him 20% max

[Nefertiti]

Robina have your head recalibrated. Or knock it with a hammer and hear if their is an empty sound coming from inside.

Going by your hallucinations about Meru warriors here Delusions of grandeur. Tharaka dwarf will be nothing whether under Mobutu or Raila. Meru punch above their weight in Kikuyu regimes and they know which side their bread js buttered. That is why Kiraitiu, Kawira, Njuki, Mpuru Aburi, Munya are lined up in Handshake.

[RV Pundit]

Wacha bangi. You already gave Raila a coalition that is everyone in the field - just to face Dr Ruto. Uko na shida nani. Ruto is a machinery. Big machine. Him alone - you need to basically scramble everyone onto BBI brigade

Tell you what - if Raila will be offering PM, DPM - what stop Ruto from offering the same. maDVD for example instead of going for DPM - we can make him PM - or Kalonzo - and we add another 4% to daktari.

In any case I believe MaDVD and Kalonzo were already delivered to Ruto only to bolt away   But trust me as head into 2022 - they will rather join Hustler Nation - than support Raila for the 10th time - and not get even a THANK YOU - just matusi

Ruto big task ahead is to stay alive and not get assisinated by some desperate forces around the current eating class. Ingine ni sleepwalking.

Even with 1/3 GEMA Raila hits 53% - of course with PK, Uhuru and GEMA rank & file - he may get a clean sweep. Mobutu with Nyoro give him 20% max

[Nefertiti]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

20% of Gema is Dispora alone , or Meru - Alone . You are crazy if you think thats the most Ruto will get in Gema.

GEMA have never voted Mobutu or Moi - start from there. PEV started in 90s during Matiba, Kibaki - they still gave Moi 2%. Mobutu has never had GEMA so that he can lose them - except in Tangatanga echo chamber. GEMA will follow Uhuru and their leaders who are overwhelmingly in Raila camp. Pundit 80% fiction is just something else. Start from reality - Mobutu is not GEMA and he has a laughable bunch of rookies in his corner. PEV if you make it an issue will work against Mobutu.

Mijikenda is another one - Mobutu 40% - they voted Raila 85%+ in the past 3 elections - you actually need to spirit them away from Raila. So giving it a 60-40 split is very generous for Mobutu and pessimistic for Raila. The influencers are still with Raila or silent - none is with Mobutu - not even Mvurya.

Luhya Jubilee got 10% in 2017 - with Lusakas in their corner. I am not sure which magic will make Mobutu get 1/3 with only Barasa, Washiali and Khalwale - all governors, senators and Eugenes are firmly with Raila. Mdvd is in Handshake angling for D/PM. Way he is been tearing into Mobutu ruthlessly.

Kamba will go Kalonzo - with few crumbs for Kibwana. Again you actually have to take them out of Kalonzo column. They have never voted Mobutu or even Uhuruto. Nor Kivutha/Muthama/Mutua. Kalonzo is squarely positioned in Handshake - Mobutu got nothing for him.

You see Mobutu numbers are quite shaky - hence the "hustler wave" abracadabra - because the kahunas remain with Raila.

[RV Pundit]

For every gema vote Ruto is loosing - he is getting two - from non-gema - at expense of Raila. That is as of now. You can only do MOAS as of that day. Not wishful thinking MOAS. What is Raila numbers now...maybe 15% is over-generous.

As for wishful thinking - why is Uhuru not realesing BBI - shida iko wapi Why is not going for Executive PM anymore? What happened. Every GEMian is now toiling to make Raila PORK enugh spirits

Robina kichwa yako ni mbaya.

GEMA have never voted Mobutu or Moi - start from there. PEV started in 90s during Matiba, Kibaki - they still gave Moi 2%. Mobutu has never had GEMA so that he can lose them - except in Tangatanga echo chamber. GEMA will follow Uhuru and their leaders who are overwhelmingly in Raila camp. Pundit 80% fiction is just something else. Start from reality - Mobutu is not GEMA and he has a laughable bunch of rookies in his corner. PEV if you make it an issue will work against Mobutu.

Mijikenda is another one - Mobutu 40% - they voted Raila 85%+ in the past 3 elections - you actually need to spirit them away from Raila. So giving it a 60-40 split is very generous for Mobutu and pessimistic for Raila. The influencers are still with Raila or silent - none is with Mobutu - not even Mvurya.

Luhya Jubilee got 10% in 2017 - with Lusakas in their corner. I am not sure which magic will make Mobutu get 1/3 with only Barasa, Washiali and Khalwale - all governors, senators and Eugenes are firmly with Raila. Mdvd is in Handshake angling for D/PM. Way he is been tearing into Mobutu ruthlessly.

Kamba will go Kalonzo - with few crumbs for Kibwana. Again you actually have to take them out of Kalonzo column. They have never voted Mobutu or even Uhuruto. Nor Kivutha/Muthama/Mutua. Kalonzo is squarely positioned in Handshake - Mobutu got nothing for him.

You see Mobutu numbers are quite shaky - hence the "hustler wave" abracadabra - because the kahunas remain with Raila.

[Nowayhaha]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

20% of Gema is Dispora alone , or Meru - Alone . You are crazy if you think thats the most Ruto will get in Gema.

GEMA have never voted Mobutu or Moi - start from there. PEV started in 90s during Matiba, Kibaki - they still gave Moi 2%. Mobutu has never had GEMA so that he can lose them - except in Tangatanga echo chamber. GEMA will follow Uhuru and their leaders who are overwhelmingly in Raila camp. Pundit 80% fiction is just something else. Start from reality - Mobutu is not GEMA and he has a laughable bunch of rookies in his corner. PEV if you make it an issue will work against Mobutu.

Mijikenda is another one - Mobutu 40% - they voted Raila 85%+ in the past 3 elections - you actually need to spirit them away from Raila. So giving it a 60-40 split is very generous for Mobutu and pessimistic for Raila. The influencers are still with Raila or silent - none is with Mobutu - not even Mvurya.

Luhya Jubilee got 10% in 2017 - with Lusakas in their corner. I am not sure which magic will make Mobutu get 1/3 with only Barasa, Washiali and Khalwale - all governors, senators and Eugenes are firmly with Raila. Mdvd is in Handshake angling for D/PM. Way he is been tearing into Mobutu ruthlessly.

Kamba will go Kalonzo - with few crumbs for Kibwana. Again you actually have to take them out of Kalonzo column. They have never voted Mobutu or even Uhuruto. Nor Kivutha/Muthama/Mutua. Kalonzo is squarely positioned in Handshake - Mobutu got nothing for him.

You see Mobutu numbers are quite shaky - hence the "hustler wave" abracadabra - because the kahunas remain with Raila.

Robina I can decide to lecture you like RV does but I wont . To be fair I can see  you base your argument on the premises of elected politicians now for once forget and remove elected politicians  and lets see what will be your conclusion.

[Nefertiti]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

20% of Gema is Dispora alone , or Meru - Alone . You are crazy if you think thats the most Ruto will get in Gema.

GEMA have never voted Mobutu or Moi - start from there. PEV started in 90s during Matiba, Kibaki - they still gave Moi 2%. Mobutu has never had GEMA so that he can lose them - except in Tangatanga echo chamber. GEMA will follow Uhuru and their leaders who are overwhelmingly in Raila camp. Pundit 80% fiction is just something else. Start from reality - Mobutu is not GEMA and he has a laughable bunch of rookies in his corner. PEV if you make it an issue will work against Mobutu.

Mijikenda is another one - Mobutu 40% - they voted Raila 85%+ in the past 3 elections - you actually need to spirit them away from Raila. So giving it a 60-40 split is very generous for Mobutu and pessimistic for Raila. The influencers are still with Raila or silent - none is with Mobutu - not even Mvurya.

Luhya Jubilee got 10% in 2017 - with Lusakas in their corner. I am not sure which magic will make Mobutu get 1/3 with only Barasa, Washiali and Khalwale - all governors, senators and Eugenes are firmly with Raila. Mdvd is in Handshake angling for D/PM. Way he is been tearing into Mobutu ruthlessly.

Kamba will go Kalonzo - with few crumbs for Kibwana. Again you actually have to take them out of Kalonzo column. They have never voted Mobutu or even Uhuruto. Nor Kivutha/Muthama/Mutua. Kalonzo is squarely positioned in Handshake - Mobutu got nothing for him.

You see Mobutu numbers are quite shaky - hence the "hustler wave" abracadabra - because the kahunas remain with Raila.

Robina I can decide to lecture you like RV does but I wont . To be fair I can see  you base your argument on the premises of elected politicians now for once forget and remove elected politicians  and lets see what will be your conclusion.

To estimate political support - we have indicators

1. By-elections - we have Msambweni to assess Mijikenda. We had Ganda before and Jumwa lost to ODM. We also have a few MCA runs in Gema areas - Naivasha, Kahawa - here we are told hustler candidates are missing because Uhuru will be lameduck in June 2021

2. Opinion polls - we had a credible poll in March 2018 - things have since changed significantly

3. Influencers - they follow the popular candidate/party/faction

See? Hustler is an experiment until we have reliable data - "community interest" is a new invention that you can only guess.

[Nefertiti]

BBI is Raila 2022 Manifesto - it stupid to unleash it 2 years ahead. It will be released so close to make referendum impossible - otherwise you do it now and folks realign. The ballot itself will be the referendum - Mobutu anti-BBI No complicate his coalition cause he has only DPORK for MK.

You chide my obsession with by-elections - which is strange for a numbers guy. You can have 40 or 80% magic numbers but without credible polls by-elections are the closest test.

For every gema vote Ruto is loosing - he is getting two - from non-gema - at expense of Raila. That is as of now. You can only do MOAS as of that day. Not wishful thinking MOAS. What is Raila numbers now...maybe 15% is over-generous.

As for wishful thinking - why is Uhuru not realesing BBI - shida iko wapi Why is not going for Executive PM anymore? What happened. Every GEMian is now toiling to make Raila PORK enugh spirits

Robina kichwa yako ni mbaya.

[Nowayhaha]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

20% of Gema is Dispora alone , or Meru - Alone . You are crazy if you think thats the most Ruto will get in Gema.

GEMA have never voted Mobutu or Moi - start from there. PEV started in 90s during Matiba, Kibaki - they still gave Moi 2%. Mobutu has never had GEMA so that he can lose them - except in Tangatanga echo chamber. GEMA will follow Uhuru and their leaders who are overwhelmingly in Raila camp. Pundit 80% fiction is just something else. Start from reality - Mobutu is not GEMA and he has a laughable bunch of rookies in his corner. PEV if you make it an issue will work against Mobutu.

Mijikenda is another one - Mobutu 40% - they voted Raila 85%+ in the past 3 elections - you actually need to spirit them away from Raila. So giving it a 60-40 split is very generous for Mobutu and pessimistic for Raila. The influencers are still with Raila or silent - none is with Mobutu - not even Mvurya.

Luhya Jubilee got 10% in 2017 - with Lusakas in their corner. I am not sure which magic will make Mobutu get 1/3 with only Barasa, Washiali and Khalwale - all governors, senators and Eugenes are firmly with Raila. Mdvd is in Handshake angling for D/PM. Way he is been tearing into Mobutu ruthlessly.

Kamba will go Kalonzo - with few crumbs for Kibwana. Again you actually have to take them out of Kalonzo column. They have never voted Mobutu or even Uhuruto. Nor Kivutha/Muthama/Mutua. Kalonzo is squarely positioned in Handshake - Mobutu got nothing for him.

You see Mobutu numbers are quite shaky - hence the "hustler wave" abracadabra - because the kahunas remain with Raila.

Robina I can decide to lecture you like RV does but I wont . To be fair I can see  you base your argument on the premises of elected politicians now for once forget and remove elected politicians  and lets see what will be your conclusion.

To estimate political support - we have indicators

1. By-elections - we have Msambweni to assess Mijikenda. We had Ganda before and Jumwa lost to ODM. We also have a few MCA runs in Gema areas - Naivasha, Kahawa - here we are told hustler candidates are missing because Uhuru will be lameduck in June 2021

2. Opinion polls - we had a credible poll in March 2018 - things have since changed significantly

3. Influencers - they follow the popular candidate/party/faction

See? Hustler is an experiment until we have reliable data - "community interest" is a new invention that you can only guess.

You see you cant go beyond  elected politicians , thats the end of your horizon.
Honestly speaking you not only come out as miseducated but also boring.

[Nefertiti]

Okay - basically it come down to unverified hustler wave. My take is hustler is hullabaloo - folks will follow their tribal gods as usual.

Mobutu will be lucky to get 20% in GEMA - this comes to 5% nationally
RV and NFD pastoralists - 100% is fair trade-off with Gusii and Kuria
Luhya I let you off easy at 1/3 of total - that would be 90% Bukusu or so
Pwani 2% is about 50% sliced from ODM - I doubt it - let see Msambweni in few weeks
Kamba 1/3 is optimistic but possible if Raila lose Kalonzo. Mutua is DOA. If Kalonzo get big post in BBI - Mobutu split 10% with Mutua - which is 0% nationally.
Nairobi 40% depend on the Big 4 split countrywide

I only contest GEMA and Kamba - which also affects Nairobi. Mobutu best case scenario is 40-45%.

I already did - and we will get to MOAS proper in 2022.
For now just let's do broad brushes.)
Ruto will carry entire RV - 25% - maybe 1% less.
Ruto will carry 60% - okay 80% of GEMA - okay let even go with 50% - nationally let go with 12% (I have removed diaspora from rv who will go rogue no matter what)
Ruto wll carry pastoralist - cushitic vote from Moyale to tana river...give those 5%.
Ruto will carry lots of luhya votes - esp Bukusu and Kakamega - I say we give him 5%
Ruto will get part of coast vote - give that 2%.
Ruto will carry 40% of nairobi - worse case - nationally 5%.
Ruto will carry maybe 1/3 of Ukambani - split with Mutua/Kaloi - I say we give him 3%
I am going to exclude Gusii, Kuria and Luos for now.
Give all the support the Test Tube baby dictator Matiangi need - Nyachae his former boss got 4%.

Now let us do grade zero maths 24+12+5+5+2+5 = 57%.

And i am talking worse case scenario.

Best case - Ruto get 80% of GEMA votes - that would be another 7% - taking his tally to 65%.

If Uhuru reconcile with Ruto - okay then we are talking 70%.

 I believe once Uhuru realizes the inevitability of Ruto win - he will cut himself a retirement deal.

But first - I say Ruto complete the current take over NASA - leave Raila, madvd and Kalonzo to share 15%  leaving him with 30% - and then combine with Jubilee Asili (which at ground is intact) 55%

And again like repeat election of 2017 - it will be pointless for 2022 presidential poll to be held.

At that point we might see Ruto winning by 85% pretty pointless with Raila struggling to get to 10%

Walk us through the numbers like 10 year olds. Avoid guesswork and magic numbers if possible.

20% of Gema is Dispora alone , or Meru - Alone . You are crazy if you think thats the most Ruto will get in Gema.

GEMA have never voted Mobutu or Moi - start from there. PEV started in 90s during Matiba, Kibaki - they still gave Moi 2%. Mobutu has never had GEMA so that he can lose them - except in Tangatanga echo chamber. GEMA will follow Uhuru and their leaders who are overwhelmingly in Raila camp. Pundit 80% fiction is just something else. Start from reality - Mobutu is not GEMA and he has a laughable bunch of rookies in his corner. PEV if you make it an issue will work against Mobutu.

Mijikenda is another one - Mobutu 40% - they voted Raila 85%+ in the past 3 elections - you actually need to spirit them away from Raila. So giving it a 60-40 split is very generous for Mobutu and pessimistic for Raila. The influencers are still with Raila or silent - none is with Mobutu - not even Mvurya.

Luhya Jubilee got 10% in 2017 - with Lusakas in their corner. I am not sure which magic will make Mobutu get 1/3 with only Barasa, Washiali and Khalwale - all governors, senators and Eugenes are firmly with Raila. Mdvd is in Handshake angling for D/PM. Way he is been tearing into Mobutu ruthlessly.

Kamba will go Kalonzo - with few crumbs for Kibwana. Again you actually have to take them out of Kalonzo column. They have never voted Mobutu or even Uhuruto. Nor Kivutha/Muthama/Mutua. Kalonzo is squarely positioned in Handshake - Mobutu got nothing for him.

You see Mobutu numbers are quite shaky - hence the "hustler wave" abracadabra - because the kahunas remain with Raila.

Robina I can decide to lecture you like RV does but I wont . To be fair I can see  you base your argument on the premises of elected politicians now for once forget and remove elected politicians  and lets see what will be your conclusion.

To estimate political support - we have indicators

1. By-elections - we have Msambweni to assess Mijikenda. We had Ganda before and Jumwa lost to ODM. We also have a few MCA runs in Gema areas - Naivasha, Kahawa - here we are told hustler candidates are missing because Uhuru will be lameduck in June 2021

2. Opinion polls - we had a credible poll in March 2018 - things have since changed significantly

3. Influencers - they follow the popular candidate/party/faction

See? Hustler is an experiment until we have reliable data - "community interest" is a new invention that you can only guess.

You see you cant go beyond  elected politicians , thats the end of your horizon.
Honestly speaking you not only come out as miseducated but also boring.

But typical Noway has NOTHING to say. What should we reference  instead of ELECTED leaders - church leaders? Mutembei videos? Blogs? Your word? Table something constructive not just whining about Robina.