Pundit & Noway - why are opinion polls on hold?

[Nefertiti]

• Tweet

When Mobutu was leading with landslide as most corrupt Kenyan Ipsos were all over. Now that he is leading at 65% noone is in hurry to rubberstamp his narrative. Machinery at work.

[RV Pundit]

Ipsos is the more credible of the others. Right now if they poll - Ruto indeed will be in 50% plus. I am not sure what dramatic thing will happen to change Raila fortunes from 15% to reach Ruto level. Even if Uhuru endorse him - GEMA will go rogue. 

It could only get interesting if GEMA elite look for another candidate that is not Raila or Ruto - and go for it.

Otherwise nothing will change until 2022. Ruto has the upper hand and just need to bring it home.

When Mobutu was leading with landslide as most corrupt Kenyan Ipsos were all over. Now that he is leading at 65% noone is in hurry to rubberstamp his narrative. Machinery at work.

[Nefertiti]

My question is why Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA are dead silent. Mobutu needs bragging rights; now it just Ndii and Pundit opinion.

[Nowayhaha]

My question is why Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA are dead silent. Mobutu needs bragging rights; now it just Ndii and Pundit opinion.

Most if not all opinion polls are sponsored and bought and from 2003 to 2013 Raila and his supporters were doing the honers.
Previously it was easy to manipulate the opinion polls because  the margin between the winnimg candidate and losing candidate was small. Now Ruto has a wide margin and a poll would really kill Railas intended perception that he has support in placed like MT Kenya etc.
But expect them to start trickling come 2021 eith a pattern that Raila will be gainimg from 20 semething to around 40 something as we near the general election.

[Nefertiti]

My question is why Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA are dead silent. Mobutu needs bragging rights; now it just Ndii and Pundit opinion.

Most if not all opinion polls are sponsored and bought and from 2003 to 2013 Raila and his supporters were doing the honers.
Previously it was easy to manipulate the opinion polls because  the margin between the winnimg candidate and losing candidate was small. Now Ruto has a wide margin and a poll would really kill Railas intended perception that he has support in placed like MT Kenya etc.
But expect them to start trickling come 2021 eith a pattern that Raila will be gainimg from 20 semething to around 40 something as we near the general election.

It shows the power of the machinery. I don't believe Raila cheated or sponsored polls 2008-12 - he peaked at 2010 after tosharing new katiba. The Gema mercenary Mobutu worked on him for 2 years to 35%. He added Kalonzo and scored 43%.

[RV Pundit]

There are opinion polls over the social media - and I am sure the opinion polls will start trickling soon - of course - Ruto is so far ahead - the nearest Raila is probably now in single digits.

I personally don't believe opinion polls are necessarily horrible. They do a good job. They can do a great job by being keen on their sampling - esp tribe. Those without credibility are easy to tell - like one recently sponspored by Mutua - that dropped Ruto numbers to 30% and pumped Mutua to almost 10%   - you could just tell it had Mutua fingerprints.

I believe Ipsos was the more credibile one...but they fired Tom..so maybe they are done with political opinions polls....so we wait for Bondo's Ambitho lady who works for ODM most of the time.

My question is why Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA are dead silent. Mobutu needs bragging rights; now it just Ndii and Pundit opinion.

[RV Pundit]

Nate Silver wannabe with Terminator - you were busy averaging them last elections. You think there is omnipresent omnipotent machinery somewhere doing everything possible. Actually you don't think. You want to believe that some machinery will make your candidate PORK through pure magic.

It shows the power of the machinery. I don't believe Raila cheated or sponsored polls 2008-12 - he peaked at 2010 after tosharing new katiba. The Gema mercenary Mobutu worked on him for 2 years to 35%. He added Kalonzo and scored 43%.

[Nowayhaha]

There are opinion polls over the social media - and I am sure the opinion polls will start trickling soon - of course - Ruto is so far ahead - the nearest Raila is probably now in single digits.

I personally don't believe opinion polls are necessarily horrible. They do a good job. They can do a great job by being keen on their sampling - esp tribe. Those without credibility are easy to tell - like one recently sponspored by Mutua - that dropped Ruto numbers to 30% and pumped Mutua to almost 10%   - you could just tell it had Mutua fingerprints.

I believe Ipsos was the more credibile one...but they fired Tom..so maybe they are done with political opinions polls....so we wait for Bondo's Ambitho lady who works for ODM most of the time.

My question is why Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA are dead silent. Mobutu needs bragging rights; now it just Ndii and Pundit opinion.

Opinion polls were used by Raila and his team as Propaganda tool from 2003 to 2017  and partly the reason which lead to P.E.V.  ODM in 2008  were quoting opinion polls to showcase that it was impossible for Kibaki to have won the elections .
 Luckily by 2013 by UhuRuto winning it provided evidence that they had been manipulated all along .
Worse is Ambithos who is well know as a Relative to ODM operatives and her company is filled with people from Luo Nyanza . She had the last opinion poll in 2017 showing as Raila winning .

[Nefertiti]

Wheelbarrow vs machinery squared out in Kibra barely a year ago with clear results. In fact there has never been any rich vs poor election in Kenya. Spin vs reality.

Nate Silver wannabe with Terminator - you were busy averaging them last elections. You think there is omnipresent omnipotent machinery somewhere doing everything possible. Actually you don't think. You want to believe that some machinery will make your candidate PORK through pure magic.

It shows the power of the machinery. I don't believe Raila cheated or sponsored polls 2008-12 - he peaked at 2010 after tosharing new katiba. The Gema mercenary Mobutu worked on him for 2 years to 35%. He added Kalonzo and scored 43%.

[Nefertiti]

Is there any FACTUAL BASIS of Mobutu 40% or 65% vs 15% Raila. Last credible Ipsos poll was March 2018 - before Jubilee implosion - the 40% is from London briefcase pollster. The rest is just your delusions and hopes. The wildly popular Matiba was self-polling and saying he will get 80 MPs (50%) - from thin air - with his "Let the people decide" nonsense. But reality soon struck: FORD Asili had mere 30 MPs - 20% - same as Jaramogi FORD K branch.

Go slow on that wishlist. Ndii and the GM are partisan hacks not any better than Ngunyi or Manyora. When Ipsos runs a poll - it will be in the news - with breakdowns, sample size and whatnot. Hii 65% magic is desperate comic relief - less bankable than executive orders.

There are opinion polls over the social media - and I am sure the opinion polls will start trickling soon - of course - Ruto is so far ahead - the nearest Raila is probably now in single digits.

I personally don't believe opinion polls are necessarily horrible. They do a good job. They can do a great job by being keen on their sampling - esp tribe. Those without credibility are easy to tell - like one recently sponspored by Mutua - that dropped Ruto numbers to 30% and pumped Mutua to almost 10%   - you could just tell it had Mutua fingerprints.

I believe Ipsos was the more credibile one...but they fired Tom..so maybe they are done with political opinions polls....so we wait for Bondo's Ambitho lady who works for ODM most of the time.

My question is why Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA are dead silent. Mobutu needs bragging rights; now it just Ndii and Pundit opinion.

[RV Pundit]

Kibra was former Raila own const - it's like Ruto winning eldoret north. You're desperate for extrapolation.

Wheelbarrow vs machinery squared out in Kibra barely a year ago with clear results. In fact there has never been any rich vs poor election in Kenya. Spin vs reality.

[RV Pundit]

I don't throw figures careless like you. I have been predicting elections and referenda since 2005. That is 15yrs. I know the maths off head. I don't need opinion polls - and if you look for 2017 - you can see my MOAS in 2016 or 2015. It oscialtted around 55%.

Ruto will nick it in first round if elections are held now.

Just know that Ruto will carry nearly all RV 25% (GEMA diaspora will go completely rogue there for their own future). If he will carry at worse half of GEMA - at best 80%. He will carry I believe more than 40% of Luhya votes now. He is on course to carry I believe 30% of Ukambani votes. He will sweep the floor with pasotralist counties from Isiolo, marsabit to lamu/tana river. Ruto will improve coast -25% Jubilee to close to 50% this time round - if not more. He is on course fo half of Nairobi

When you do calculations - 25%+13(GEMA)+7(luhya)+3 (ukambani)+6 (coast plus pastoralist north)+5=60%. I left out Gusii/Kuria/Iteso. So if you add Ruto another 2% - my friend

Ruto right now worse case scenario is 60%.

If he get 80% of GEMA - he goes nearly 70%.

Raila is kaput - Luo Nyanza, maybe Busia and Banyoros, maybe a few in coast. KAPUT.

Matiangi - will fight with Ruto for Gusii votes. Of the 4% gusii vote - Matiangi will score 4% if backed by Corona Kagwe and Uhuru..if deputizing anybody he will score 2%.

Kalonzo/Mutua - will canibalize themselves...but Muthama/Prof Makueni are already in Hustlers Nation.

Kagwe/PK - with their kamikaze run - under Raila or Matiangi - or alone - will not fly.

Is there any FACTUAL BASIS of Mobutu 40% or 65% vs 15% Raila. Last credible Ipsos poll was March 2018 - before Jubilee implosion - the 40% is from London briefcase pollster. The rest is just your delusions and hopes. The wildly popular Matiba was self-polling and saying he will get 80 MPs (50%) - from thin air - with his "Let the people decide" nonsense. But reality soon struck: FORD Asili had mere 30 MPs - 20% - same as Jaramogi FORD K branch.

Go slow on that wishlist. Ndii and the GM are partisan hacks not any better than Ngunyi or Manyora. When Ipsos runs a poll - it will be in the news - with breakdowns, sample size and whatnot. Hii 65% magic is desperate comic relief - less bankable than executive orders.