Ndii, Waita trade blows over Uhuru 'loan'

[Nefertiti]

• Tweet

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-09-29-handouts-failure-ndii-uhurus-chief-of-staff-engage-in-twitter-spat/

Are you incapable of having a civil conversation? First you insult my deceased father then you insult my professional standing? It’s unnecessary but seeing as you harbour so much angst from being an ‘economist’ that only gets to practice on Twitter I understand & I forgive.

— Nzioka Waita, MGH (@NziokaWaita) September 29, 2020

?s=21

[RV Pundit]

Look like in Kenya twitter - there are the kahunas - the 1M followers led by Ahmednassir - who bully people around.

Nzioka Waita is someone who achieved a lot in safaricom and gov - and really has no business engaging with critic like Ndii.

Uhuru tapped him because he was delivering in Safaricom.

Ndii specaility is to look for doom. The Negativo per Excellence. And he uses his Oxford African economics degree to intimidate people and yet when given a forum to face fellow economist he refuses to engage..

Kenya doesn't need people like Ndii. We are already down. We need people who inspire us like Bitange Ndemo. We need visionaries who can imagine a different reality.

Equity Bank are very luckly they fired him.  Always trying to sound smart by focusing on negativity, risks, cons while ignoring everything else...like this other facebook kikuyu Embrahim somebody.

[Nowayhaha]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1311018885550952448.html

HIGHWAY ROBBERY Long thread

As per project information memorandum (IM) dated 2016, the Government estimated cost of Nbi-Nku-Mau Summit at US$550m as shown. The contracted cost is reported at Sh180b ($1.7b) at current exchange rate. 1/13

The contracted cost of the 215km is reported at Sh180b ($1.7b), an eye popping Sh837m ($8m) per km, believe it or not, way more than the SGR ($6m/km). Dualling the 21km Athi River- Machakos Junction cost Sh5.3b, or Sh252m ($2.5m) per km.

This rate is similar to the per km cost of the $550m estimate in the project IM. Engineers and QSs need to educate us on why it is costing 3 times + as much to upgrade a similar road, more so when long stretches of the road are on flat open uninhabited terrain.

At this cost, investors would expect a dollar return of at least 12 percent, which inclusive of operational and maintenance cost a gross revenue of at least 15 percent, plus a sinking fund to pay off the debt say over 20 years. That works out to Sh36b per year or Sh98m per day.

The average daily traffic (ADT) as per the project brief, on the busiest section (Nbi-Nku) was 40k vehicles. The hurdle rate tariff at this traffic level is Sh2400 ($24) per vehicle. For PSVs, that is the fare for 4 passengers i.e just about 30% of the revenue of a 14 seater.

Of course, by the time its completed, the shilling may have weakened. The exchange rate risk and domestic interest risk (if the investors borrows locally) as well as total revenue risk falls on the Government. In fact the investor bears no risk at all, as shown.

Essentially, the investor is a bondholder guaranteed a fantastic equity premium for doing a project that the government could finance more cheaply. What do I mean? If Government goes to the Eurobond market now to build a public toll road it could borrow 10 year money at 8%.

Assuming, implausibly of course, that road costs Sh180b, the Government’s required revenue to pay interest is Sh14.4b a year, which, working with 40k vehicles translates to a tariff of Sh990 ($9 per vehicle).

The government does not need to factor in maintenance cost since we pay fuel levy for that. It also does not need a sinking fund because Governments, as perpetual entities, can and alway roll over their bonds.

But as noted the road is unlikely to cost anywhere near that much. Even if we provide for 10% cost escalation from 2016 and provide for another three years to completion, we are looking at $1b(Sh108b).

The hurdle rate of 12% calculated at the inflated $1.7 now becomes a guaranteed return of 22 percent-no sweat. The kickbacks for that? If we borrowed the $1b to build a public toll road, the interest cost on that works out to a tariff of Sh550 per vehicle.

Do the math, close to Sh2,000 per vehicle per day going to private pockets for something we could do publicly? As I keep saying, finance is the new extractive industry. 13/13

[RV Pundit]

Usual cheap potshots.
We heard the same in Thika road - that one was 10M dollars a kilometre.
SGR.
Name it.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1311018885550952448.html

HIGHWAY ROBBERY Long thread

As per project information memorandum (IM) dated 2016, the Government estimated cost of Nbi-Nku-Mau Summit at US$550m as shown. The contracted cost is reported at Sh180b ($1.7b) at current exchange rate. 1/13

The contracted cost of the 215km is reported at Sh180b ($1.7b), an eye popping Sh837m ($8m) per km, believe it or not, way more than the SGR ($6m/km). Dualling the 21km Athi River- Machakos Junction cost Sh5.3b, or Sh252m ($2.5m) per km.

This rate is similar to the per km cost of the $550m estimate in the project IM. Engineers and QSs need to educate us on why it is costing 3 times + as much to upgrade a similar road, more so when long stretches of the road are on flat open uninhabited terrain.

At this cost, investors would expect a dollar return of at least 12 percent, which inclusive of operational and maintenance cost a gross revenue of at least 15 percent, plus a sinking fund to pay off the debt say over 20 years. That works out to Sh36b per year or Sh98m per day.

The average daily traffic (ADT) as per the project brief, on the busiest section (Nbi-Nku) was 40k vehicles. The hurdle rate tariff at this traffic level is Sh2400 ($24) per vehicle. For PSVs, that is the fare for 4 passengers i.e just about 30% of the revenue of a 14 seater.

Of course, by the time its completed, the shilling may have weakened. The exchange rate risk and domestic interest risk (if the investors borrows locally) as well as total revenue risk falls on the Government. In fact the investor bears no risk at all, as shown.

Essentially, the investor is a bondholder guaranteed a fantastic equity premium for doing a project that the government could finance more cheaply. What do I mean? If Government goes to the Eurobond market now to build a public toll road it could borrow 10 year money at 8%.

Assuming, implausibly of course, that road costs Sh180b, the Government’s required revenue to pay interest is Sh14.4b a year, which, working with 40k vehicles translates to a tariff of Sh990 ($9 per vehicle).

The government does not need to factor in maintenance cost since we pay fuel levy for that. It also does not need a sinking fund because Governments, as perpetual entities, can and alway roll over their bonds.

But as noted the road is unlikely to cost anywhere near that much. Even if we provide for 10% cost escalation from 2016 and provide for another three years to completion, we are looking at $1b(Sh108b).

The hurdle rate of 12% calculated at the inflated $1.7 now becomes a guaranteed return of 22 percent-no sweat. The kickbacks for that? If we borrowed the $1b to build a public toll road, the interest cost on that works out to a tariff of Sh550 per vehicle.

Do the math, close to Sh2,000 per vehicle per day going to private pockets for something we could do publicly? As I keep saying, finance is the new extractive industry. 13/13

[Nefertiti]

The little good in Ndii is ability to slice&dice the maths for Average Jane. Folks can't make head or tail of big or complex numbers - journalists are too dumb to do this so they copypaste the jargon.

My issue with the man is paper tiger aka empty coat - too opinionated with no street cred to back it up. Ndemo after rolling out fiber and tangible stuff is credible. Same as Dr James Mwangi or say MJ. Ndii is Miguna. He claims to have advised Kibaki on the post-Moi turnaround.

Look like in Kenya twitter - there are the kahunas - the 1M followers led by Ahmednassir - who bully people around.

Nzioka Waita is someone who achieved a lot in safaricom and gov - and really has no business engaging with critic like Ndii.

Uhuru tapped him because he was delivering in Safaricom.

Ndii specaility is to look for doom. The Negativo per Excellence. And he uses his Oxford African economics degree to intimidate people and yet when given a forum to face fellow economist he refuses to engage..

Kenya doesn't need people like Ndii. We are already down. We need people who inspire us like Bitange Ndemo. We need visionaries who can imagine a different reality.

Equity Bank are very luckly they fired him.  Always trying to sound smart by focusing on negativity, risks, cons while ignoring everything else...like this other facebook kikuyu Embrahim somebody.

[RV Pundit]

Same as Waita who has run Safaricom or contributed to making it a 12B dollar company. What has Ndii achieved except criticize from the ivory towers. Anybody can critize. But running stuff...that is the hard part.

The little good in Ndii is ability to slice&dice the maths for Average Jane. Folks can't make head or tail of big or complex numbers - journalists are too dumb to do this so they copypaste the jargon.

My issue with the man is paper tiger aka empty goat - too opinionated with no street cred to back it up. Ndemo after rolling out fiber and tangible stuff is credible. Same as Dr James Mwangi or say MJ. Ndii is Miguna. He claims to have advised Kibaki on the post-Moi turnaround.

Look like in Kenya twitter - there are the kahunas - the 1M followers led by Ahmednassir - who bully people around.

Nzioka Waita is someone who achieved a lot in safaricom and gov - and really has no business engaging with critic like Ndii.

Uhuru tapped him because he was delivering in Safaricom.

Ndii specaility is to look for doom. The Negativo per Excellence. And he uses his Oxford African economics degree to intimidate people and yet when given a forum to face fellow economist he refuses to engage..

Kenya doesn't need people like Ndii. We are already down. We need people who inspire us like Bitange Ndemo. We need visionaries who can imagine a different reality.

Equity Bank are very luckly they fired him.  Always trying to sound smart by focusing on negativity, risks, cons while ignoring everything else...like this other facebook kikuyu Embrahim somebody.

[Nefertiti]

Yeah - intellectual narcissist per excellence. He is prof or dr so Waita can't teach him anything. Ndemo, Nation, NASA all gave up on the man so now he is just a blogger and twitter economist. A shame really all that potential. At least Mukhisa earn good bonus at WTO.

Same as Waita who has run Safaricom or contributed to making it a 12B dollar company. What has Ndii achieved except criticize from the ivory towers.

The little good in Ndii is ability to slice&dice the maths for Average Jane. Folks can't make head or tail of big or complex numbers - journalists are too dumb to do this so they copypaste the jargon.

My issue with the man is paper tiger aka empty goat - too opinionated with no street cred to back it up. Ndemo after rolling out fiber and tangible stuff is credible. Same as Dr James Mwangi or say MJ. Ndii is Miguna. He claims to have advised Kibaki on the post-Moi turnaround.

Look like in Kenya twitter - there are the kahunas - the 1M followers led by Ahmednassir - who bully people around.

Nzioka Waita is someone who achieved a lot in safaricom and gov - and really has no business engaging with critic like Ndii.

Uhuru tapped him because he was delivering in Safaricom.

Ndii specaility is to look for doom. The Negativo per Excellence. And he uses his Oxford African economics degree to intimidate people and yet when given a forum to face fellow economist he refuses to engage..

Kenya doesn't need people like Ndii. We are already down. We need people who inspire us like Bitange Ndemo. We need visionaries who can imagine a different reality.

Equity Bank are very luckly they fired him.  Always trying to sound smart by focusing on negativity, risks, cons while ignoring everything else...like this other facebook kikuyu Embrahim somebody.

[KenyanPlato]

In kenya you got have Ndiis arrogance or you will have every fool derailing..you have a lot of pseudo intellectuals..especially the stupid Twitter laywers..they want to be authority on everything
He is online for activism..nation is a dead company i cant believe kiboro left and it seems whoever took over just ran it to the ground. Kenyans suffer from Kruger effect..my mum used to tell me little knowledge is dangerous..you have some lawyer with BA trying to educate a PHD IN economics oolisikia Wapi that kind of nonsense

[Nefertiti]

In kenya you got have Ndiis arrogance or you will have every fool derailing..you have a lot of pseudo intellectuals..especially the stupid Twitter laywers..they want to be authority on everything
He is online for activism..nation is a dead company i cant believe kiboro left and it seems whoever took over just ran it to the ground. Kenyans suffer from Kruger effect..my mum used to tell me little knowledge is dangerous..you have some lawyer with BA trying to educate a PHD IN economics oolisikia Wapi that kind of nonsense

I got a phd too - it's not everything. Street creds - tangible achievements - are more useful. There are too many phds and mbas who cannot hold a candle to dropout geeks here in the valley.

[gout]

Ironic for someone who claims to be a pundit. Do you have to be a politician to analyse politics? Things run on knowledge, philosophy and the intangibles. The disrespect for knowledge is one reason mwafrika will remain dirty poor. We don't want to go behind what makes a more efficient wheelbarrow because it is negativity on welders.

We can stretch the French contract back to colonial times to see how helpful France has been to the Francophone countries who pay slave taxes to date - this is the work of likes of Ndii.

We pay Waita to give us the best deal and Ndii takes his time to deconstruct it. I bet he is hired for the risk analysis by same government, reason why he has the finer details. Or the Waitas still pick his brains so that to know how to escape scrutiny.

Same as Waita who has run Safaricom or contributed to making it a 12B dollar company. What has Ndii achieved except criticize from the ivory towers. Anybody can critize. But running stuff...that is the hard part.

The little good in Ndii is ability to slice&dice the maths for Average Jane. Folks can't make head or tail of big or complex numbers - journalists are too dumb to do this so they copypaste the jargon.

My issue with the man is paper tiger aka empty goat - too opinionated with no street cred to back it up. Ndemo after rolling out fiber and tangible stuff is credible. Same as Dr James Mwangi or say MJ. Ndii is Miguna. He claims to have advised Kibaki on the post-Moi turnaround.

Look like in Kenya twitter - there are the kahunas - the 1M followers led by Ahmednassir - who bully people around.

Nzioka Waita is someone who achieved a lot in safaricom and gov - and really has no business engaging with critic like Ndii.

Uhuru tapped him because he was delivering in Safaricom.

Ndii specaility is to look for doom. The Negativo per Excellence. And he uses his Oxford African economics degree to intimidate people and yet when given a forum to face fellow economist he refuses to engage..

Kenya doesn't need people like Ndii. We are already down. We need people who inspire us like Bitange Ndemo. We need visionaries who can imagine a different reality.

Equity Bank are very luckly they fired him.  Always trying to sound smart by focusing on negativity, risks, cons while ignoring everything else...like this other facebook kikuyu Embrahim somebody.

[RV Pundit]

Objectivity boss. If you're going to look at everything from risk or negative persespective - then you're a joker.

Ironic for someone who claims to be a pundit. Do you have to be a politician to analyse politics? Things run on knowledge, philosophy and the intangibles. The disrespect for knowledge is one reason mwafrika will remain dirty poor. We don't want to go behind what makes a more efficient wheelbarrow because it is negativity on welders.

We can stretch the French contract back to colonial times to see how helpful France has been to the Francophone countries who pay slave taxes to date - this is the work of likes of Ndii.

We pay Waita to give us the best deal and Ndii takes his time to deconstruct it. I bet he is hired for the risk analysis by same government, reason why he has the finer details. Or the Waitas still pick his brains so that to know how to escape scrutiny.

Same as Waita who has run Safaricom or contributed to making it a 12B dollar company. What has Ndii achieved except criticize from the ivory towers. Anybody can critize. But running stuff...that is the hard part.

The little good in Ndii is ability to slice&dice the maths for Average Jane. Folks can't make head or tail of big or complex numbers - journalists are too dumb to do this so they copypaste the jargon.

My issue with the man is paper tiger aka empty goat - too opinionated with no street cred to back it up. Ndemo after rolling out fiber and tangible stuff is credible. Same as Dr James Mwangi or say MJ. Ndii is Miguna. He claims to have advised Kibaki on the post-Moi turnaround.

Look like in Kenya twitter - there are the kahunas - the 1M followers led by Ahmednassir - who bully people around.

Nzioka Waita is someone who achieved a lot in safaricom and gov - and really has no business engaging with critic like Ndii.

Uhuru tapped him because he was delivering in Safaricom.

Ndii specaility is to look for doom. The Negativo per Excellence. And he uses his Oxford African economics degree to intimidate people and yet when given a forum to face fellow economist he refuses to engage..

Kenya doesn't need people like Ndii. We are already down. We need people who inspire us like Bitange Ndemo. We need visionaries who can imagine a different reality.

Equity Bank are very luckly they fired him.  Always trying to sound smart by focusing on negativity, risks, cons while ignoring everything else...like this other facebook kikuyu Embrahim somebody.