Kieleweke to abandon Raila

[RV Pundit]

The only hold out in ODM were Mijikenda - mostly the Giriamas. They are bolting as we speak. Otherwise Tana river/Lamu - those have nothing common with Kilifi/Kwale/Mombasa - Taita Taveta are always 50-50 - in everything they do. The battle for Mijikenda I think Raila has lost in the 1M1S - it was the last nail in the coffin.

So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.

So tell me why you think Kwale , Lamu, Tana River will vote for Raila, whem in last election even with the hate of Uhuru Jubilee managed in some cases to beat Raila and some to even out .
Now for Kilifi and Taita I will explain to you , In Taita Taveta Uhurus perfomace was affected by his surname Kenyatta Family, His family snd the park own vast amount of lands and Wadavi believe ots theirs hence the reason Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 with an improvement in 2017. Actially Jubilee has MPs and MCAs there and suprisingly won MCA there. As for Ruto he has no baggage there  wait and see how it will emd up.
Now for Kilifi its the same thing, they hate anything associated with Kenyatta , Jommo had put a PC there in his time who terrorised the locals there economically and socially , hence the reason in 2002 they opted for Kibaki the other Kikuyu against Uhuru the Kenyatta Kikuyu. Now coming to the biggest factor ,would i dare say Giriama because there are other tribe like Ribe,chonyi etc  have historical ties with Kalenjin remember KADU,  for them its easier to unite Kalenjin , thats the reason you see Ruto is most welcome there .Take this to the bank Kilifi in 2022 will go to Ruto.
As for Mombasa , with the Kisumu ndogos there , its a gone case thats a satellite Luo county, thats Tailas for Keep, even Odinga gave Moi a running in 1992, majority MPs with exception of KANUs Nassir and Chamgamwe s DP kiliku were Odingas Ford Kenya

[RV Pundit]

That is what Raila exploited after inheriting coast from Moi's KANU. Ruto has been trying to reclaim it - but's its difficult when you don't sell anti-kikuyu/anti-gema/anti-wabara narrative.

So I think they will probably go on their own - and try negotiate a post election deal. They are out of Raila. If GEMA attack Ruto - they will back Ruto 100%.They abandoned KANU when Moi decided to betray the KADU base (anti-large tribes) go for Uhuru (a Kikuyu). It's akin to Uhuru turning 360 to say Raila tosha...he will die a lonely man like Moi.

Raila is done kaput there. Joho may even abandon him.

Ehe true , in their region, so with Uhuru as part of the equation out. Dont you think this will make Raila and ODM worried ?

[Nefertiti]

So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.

In Mijikenda Raila is finished cause MPs bailed - but in Central the same MPs don't affect Ruto cause he has the "ground" - which is a new yardstick only Pundit has the groundmeter. Yet the reality- Gema have never voted non-Gema - while Raila has bagged Mijikenda 3 rounds 80%+

[Pajero]

Ooh really,they have been bolting out since 2013 if we go by pundit,we are in 2020 and still waiting,meanwhile Mungaros,Shaabal,Chidzugas,Kazungus,Joyce lay, are lining up to return to Baba.

[RV Pundit]

Are Mps abandoning Ruto in GEMA because the ground is hostile or because they are being bribed, cajoled, threatened, intimidated. That is the big difference. What is happening in GEMA is the opposite of Mijikenda. Nobody is bribing or threatening Mijikenda to abandon Raila.

The next 1yr you'll see proper ground game of GEMA - as threats and bribery - will not sway anybody - because mwananchi is waiting - and last time they were so angry - they send like 80-90 of them home.

In Mijikenda Raila is finished cause MPs bailed - but in Central the same MPs don't affect Ruto cause he has the "ground" - which is a new yardstick only Pundit has the groundmeter. Yet the reality- Gema have never voted non-Gema - while Raila has bagged Mijikenda 3 rounds 80%+

[RV Pundit]

ODM in 2007 had 50% of parliament
ODM in 2013 had dropped to 30%
ODM in 2017 has 62 mps - 20% - consisting of 30 mps  from Luo Nyanza and 20 mps from coast - and 10 elsewhere.
ODM  in 2022 will have 30 mps - 10% of parliament -almost exclusively from Luo nation.

And that is what I do -predict.
 

Ooh really,they have been bolting out since 2013 if we go by pundit,we are in 2020 and still waiting,meanwhile Mungaros,Shaabal,Chidzugas,Kazungus,Joyce lay, are lining up to return to Baba.

[Nowayhaha]

So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.

In Mijikenda Raila is finished cause MPs bailed - but in Central the same MPs don't affect Ruto cause he has the "ground" - which is a new yardstick only Pundit has the groundmeter. Yet the reality- Gema have never voted non-Gema - while Raila has bagged Mijikenda 3 rounds 80%+

Nope all Kilifis politicians bagged out , elected and aspiring.

Raila in 2007 bagged Rift Valley and North Eastern but that didnt necessarily translate to outcome of 2013 with the same elected politicians of 2007 remember the sally and Henry Kosgeis  Bett ,Sirmas etc, grounds shift and thats why you need to shift focus  from elected officials to the energy on ground.
In 2022 elections will be between Non Gemas Kingpins just like in 2002 when it was between 2 Gema politicians , the dyanamics will be different .

[Nefertiti]

Well says Dr Pundit the intellectually finished product.

Hustler vs dynasty has big cons - it alienate Mdvds ab initio - to replace with Washiali. Ruto wheelbarrow and tank handouts can be outdone easy with GoK stimulus of local jua kali desk budget I saw Uhuru unveiling in Eastlands. You cannot kill tribe - Kikuyu or Kamba will never be Kalenjin - but class is dicy.

That Ruto has Gema or Bukusu or whatever ground.... we will see soon - starting with Msambweni. ODM vs Hustler is next showdown in few months. Oops what's Ruto party again Will he spring a Mariga or back Jumwa briefcase ala Ganda?

You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.

Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.

Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).

Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released -  it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.

Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.

Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen.

Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.

[RV Pundit]

That is dynamic of politics they fail to observe. Raila threw 18 counties under the bridge while running to GEMA. He failed to get GEMA. Now he is no mans land - well he has Luos. GEMA knows he is over and done - cannot get you anything. Non-GEMA see his continued betrayal.

Nope all Kilifis politicians bagged out , elected and aspiring.

Raila in 2007 bagged Rift Valley and North Eastern but that didnt necessarily translate to outcome of 2013 with the same elected politicians of 2007 remember the sally and Henry Kosgeis  Bett ,Sirmas etc, grounds shift and thats why you need to shift focus  from elected officials to the energy on ground.
In 2022 elections will be between Non Gemas Kingpins just like in 2002 when it was between 2 Gema politicians , the dyanamics will be different .

[RV Pundit]

Ruto doesn't need maDVD - that much. He is 4% center. He is frying bigger fish. MaDVD will not get Ruto DPORK.

Yes I think coast is ripe for some politics - and Msabweni will be good indicator.

And hope we won't see desperate ODM violence like in Kibra.

Well says Dr Pundit the intellectually finished product.

Hustler vs dynasty has big cons - it alienate Mdvds ab initio - to replace with Washiali. Ruto wheelbarrow and tank handouts can be outdone easy with GoK stimulus of local jua kali desk budget I saw Uhuru unveiling in Eastlands. You cannot kill tribe - Kikuyu or Kamba will never be Kalenjin - but class is dicy.

That Ruto has Gema or Bukusu or whatever ground.... we will see soon - starting with Msambweni. ODM vs Hustler is next showdown in few months. Oops what's Ruto party again Will he spring a Mariga or back Jumwa briefcase ala Ganda?

You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.

Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.

Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).

Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released -  it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.

Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.

Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen.

Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.

[Nefertiti]

BBI will not happen - it empty promises of NARC. I mean Hustler Nation is a rallying cry as well obviously. Let see Msambweni in Kwale - who has better chance in Mijikenda. Of course you cannot protest ODM violence - yet condone Ruto bribery - both are cheating plain and simple. Keep it clean or get messy.

Ruto doesn't need maDVD - that much. He is 4% center. He is frying bigger fish. MaDVD will not get Ruto DPORK.

Yes I think coast is ripe for some politics - and Msabweni will be good indicator.

And hope we won't see desperate ODM violence like in Kibra.

Well says Dr Pundit the intellectually finished product.

Hustler vs dynasty has big cons - it alienate Mdvds ab initio - to replace with Washiali. Ruto wheelbarrow and tank handouts can be outdone easy with GoK stimulus of local jua kali desk budget I saw Uhuru unveiling in Eastlands. You cannot kill tribe - Kikuyu or Kamba will never be Kalenjin - but class is dicy.

That Ruto has Gema or Bukusu or whatever ground.... we will see soon - starting with Msambweni. ODM vs Hustler is next showdown in few months. Oops what's Ruto party again Will he spring a Mariga or back Jumwa briefcase ala Ganda?

You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.

Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.

Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).

Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released -  it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.

Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.

Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen.

Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.

[Pajero]

I doubt if jubilee will field a candidate in msambweni,maybe Mobutu will support an independent candidate or sponsor his jubilee Nandi Asili candidate

[Nowayhaha]

Robina and Pajero, its naive to think Ruto wont sponsor a candidate in Msambweni when he has Mvurya and Mwashetani hailing from same county.
Uhuru should come and campaign for ODM candidate and you will see the results

[Nefertiti]

Robina and Pajero, its naive to think Ruto wont sponsor a candidate in Msambweni when he has Mvurya and Mwashetani hailing from same county.
Uhuru should come and campaign for ODM candidate and you will see the results

Uhuru utility to Raila start and end with Gema and machinery. Raila is tried & tested non-GEMA veteran - Ruto needs a party first otherwise wishy-washy Mvurya is not guaranteed to back him. Getting local briefcase to beat ODM entrenched network, then coalesce entire strip, survive Joho-Kingi-Mvurya-Jumwa dick contest - then hopefully back Ruto - sio mchezo. That a taller mountain to climb than Raila in Gema - at least Uhuru has live live cut Ruto to size and erected hurdles all over - but you don't know for sure what Mvurya or Kingi is planning. At least Raila has Joho, Samboja, et al still tagging along.

[Nefertiti]

How many MPs are in Jubilee Asili? NASA parties are intact - and none leans towards Ruto - yet he has been all but kicked out of Jubilee.

ODM in 2007 had 50% of parliament
ODM in 2013 had dropped to 30%
ODM in 2017 has 62 mps - 20% - consisting of 30 mps  from Luo Nyanza and 20 mps from coast - and 10 elsewhere.
ODM  in 2022 will have 30 mps - 10% of parliament -almost exclusively from Luo nation.

And that is what I do -predict.
 

Ooh really,they have been bolting out since 2013 if we go by pundit,we are in 2020 and still waiting,meanwhile Mungaros,Shaabal,Chidzugas,Kazungus,Joyce lay, are lining up to return to Baba.

[RV Pundit]

Actually the opposite is true. Jubilee is intact with Ruto. NASA has splintered into their parties - with some joining Ruto. Jubilee of Murathe has a few Kieweleke Mps - on their own - they are nothing. Ruto just didn't want to engage Uhuru in a fight - and that was tactical retreat. All those that they intimidated or bribed - have come back to Ruto. And next year those lying low not to be bankrupted or jailed - will come out. Include those in senior gov positions.

Otherwise Jubilee as party - membership and leadership - back Ruto. There is no competitor. Uhuru is going home. Maybe Tuju can take the certificate home - but Jubilee - the real one - asili - remain committed to Ruto.

Just watch as the lameduck becomes irrelevant and as everyone tries to win Ruto favour.

How many MPs are in Jubilee Asili? NASA parties are intact - and none leans towards Ruto - yet he has been all but kicked out of Jubilee.

[Kichwa]

"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time.   Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal  days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters.   Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory.    Not too long ago he was a  powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason.  He is going down very fast.

So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.

So tell me why do you think Kwale , Lamu, Tana River will vote for Raila, when in last election even with the hate of Uhuru ,Jubilee managed in some cases to beat Raila and some to even out .
Now for Kilifi and Taita I will explain to you , In Taita Taveta Uhurus perfomace was affected by his surname Kenyatta Family, His family and the park own vast amount of lands and Wadavi believe its theirs hence the reason Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 with an improvement in 2017. Actually Jubilee has MPs and MCAs there and suprisingly won Women Rep  As for Ruto he has no baggage in Coast Province wait and see how it will end up.
Now for Kilifi its the same thing, they hate anything associated with Kenyattas , Jommo had appointrd a Coast PC  in his time who terrorised the locals economically and socially , hence the reason in 2002 they opted for Kibaki the other Kikuyu against Uhuru the Kenyatta Kikuyu. Now coming to the biggest factor ,would i dare say Giriama because there are other tribes like Ribe,chonyi etc  have historical ties with Kalenjin remember KADU?,  for them its easier to unite with Kalenjin , thats the reason you see Ruto is most welcome there .Take this to the bank Kilifi in 2022 will go to Ruto.
As for Mombasa , with the Kisumu ndogos there , its a gone case thats a satellite Luo county, thats Tailas for Keep, even Odinga gave Moi a running in 1992, majority MPs with exception of KANUs Nassir and Chamgamwe s DP kiliku were Odingas Ford Kenya

[Nefertiti]

Hope spring eternal. In fact hustler vs dynasty further cement Uhurutopia tomb - there is no Jesus resurrection of the Jubilee carcass. You still hope one afternoon Uhuru will call Jubilee NGC and everyone endorse Ruto - akin to the Last Supper - in meantime all the mayhem is to fool Raila.

Actually the opposite is true. Jubilee is intact with Ruto. NASA has splintered into their parties - with some joining Ruto. Jubilee of Murathe has a few Kieweleke Mps - on their own - they are nothing. Ruto just didn't want to engage Uhuru in a fight - and that was tactical retreat. All those that they intimidated or bribed - have come back to Ruto. And next year those lying low not to be bankrupted or jailed - will come out. Include those in senior gov positions.

Otherwise Jubilee as party - membership and leadership - back Ruto. There is no competitor. Uhuru is going home. Maybe Tuju can take the certificate home - but Jubilee - the real one - asili - remain committed to Ruto.

Just watch as the lameduck becomes irrelevant and as everyone tries to win Ruto favour.

How many MPs are in Jubilee Asili? NASA parties are intact - and none leans towards Ruto - yet he has been all but kicked out of Jubilee.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.

"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time.   Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal  days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters.   Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory.    Not too long ago he was a  powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason.  He is going down very fast.

[RV Pundit]

It's uhuru orphans who will soon be desperate - as they face an angry votes in their region -and will be running to Ruto to cut some deal.

When you will you ever realize that Uhuru is going home - he is slow punctured politicians - and you're hitching a ride onto statehouse - on a vehicles - that WITHOUT ANY DOUBT - will deflate - and stall. I mean have you read constitution yet on term limits.

Hope spring eternal. In fact hustler vs dynasty further cement Uhurutopia tomb - there is no Jesus resurrection of the Jubilee carcass. You still hope one afternoon Uhuru will call Jubilee NGC and everyone endorse Ruto - akin to the Last Supper - in meantime all the mayhem is to fool Raila.