Reading social media - it appears narc like revolution will carry dynasties

[RV Pundit]

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The hustler movement is pretty solid.

Problem with BBI crowd of UhuRao - they hitched onto unity/anti-graft while they are busy disuniting and stealing.

So their message is not resonating - and it get worse - because being in gov the next two years will be like KANU of 90s.

The economy will be in so much problems - and the grand looting will start as gema elite see their end in power.

So this hustler thing if Uhuru keep inciting a revolt - he will get one like 2002.

Ruto just need to keep inciting the poor masses against the rich - aka dynasties of Moi, Kenyattas, Odingas and the rest.

It worked in Kalenjin against Moi and his select elite - this actually started in Eldoret in 97 when Ruto against Moi's adopted family crony - Moi had reportedly asked "Baba ya hiyo kijana ni nani" - eventually folks started seeing MOI as entitled orphan turned ingrates. Nowadays for Moi elite or anybody who feel entitled to get leadership in Kalenjin is nearly impossible - while 20 yr old nobody can become anything. All you need is to talk some sense.

[Nefertiti]

I am glad you follow. Now of course you been telling us integrity does not matter but size of tribal coalition. You need to revise the MOAS patent you filed in 2013 - your genius move experiment flopped in Kibra as they met headlong with reality. In 2002 - despite lining up Kikuyu-Luhya ala NARC - Kanu lost all bigwigs Raila, Kalonzo, Saitoti - sealed its fate. The trouble is, with BBI Manifesto Raila can credibly dish out PM, DPM, 2 VPs etc- nonexistent posts to all PKs, Johos, Matiang’is and Oparanyas - and still dangle 35% devolution and gender parity without actually passing BBI. He will claim 100 days like Kibaki NARC.

Ruto cannot credibly dangle D/PM while loudly opposing BBI. So it tough to string Mdvds or Kalonzo huge egos. Your boy only has KADU/URP intact - exactly KANU 2002 minus few Kiambu MPs.

[RV Pundit]

What is wrong with MOAS. Where is it wrong. I don't just see tribes - I consider many things. That is why you'll find 11% here, 33% there, 44% here. For example in referendum of 2010 - I put Nos at 33% and yes at 67% - and it came down to 31% vis 69%. Opinion polls were saying 20% to 80%. In repeat election - I put Yes at 98% - I could see 2% voting for Ekuro Aukoth.

MOAS actually agree with most credible opinion polls except where they get wrong in cosmopolitan counties. That is where I correct them. Otherwise credible opinion polls when they sample homogeneous counties get it right - and those are figures I use to diaspora population - plus and minus local issues.

If MOAS was done now - Ruto would win.

Now what the future hold we will find out. BBI first has to pass. Time is running out. Uhuru will chicken out I believe...after CORONA...and then 2022 elections are 1yr away...I don't think he want divisive politics this soon.

The man wants to retire...I believe...after grand looting. He is lying to Raila about some "future BBI" while they are looting seriously.

Now when it come to ODM - what is new - Oparanya? Joho? Those are the only remaining Raila boys - everyone else bolted out. Matiangi and his GEMA buddies have their own plans. I believe Matiangi will be told to be DPORK and they will fish a PORK from GEMA - if GEMA elite don't want to end their eating.

I am glad you follow. Now of course you been telling us integrity does not matter but size of tribal coalition. You need to revise the MOAS patent you filed in 2013 - your genius move experiment flopped in Kibra as they met headlong with reality. In 2002 - despite lining up Kikuyu-Luhya ala NARC - Kanu lost all bigwigs Raila, Kalonzo, Saitoti - sealed its fate. The trouble is, with BBI Manifesto Raila can credibly dish out PM, DPM, 2 VPs etc- nonexistent posts to all PKs, Johos, Matiang’is and Oparanyas - and still dangle 35% devolution and gender parity without actually passing BBI. He will claim 100 days like Kibaki NARC.

Ruto cannot credibly dangle D/PM while loudly opposing BBI. So it tough to string Mdvds or Kalonzo huge egos. Your boy only has KADU/URP intact - exactly KANU 2002 minus few Kiambu MPs.

[Kichwa]

Ruto is a man without a clear coherent inclusive message. The time he spent promoting "tyranny of numbers" has defined him. If he loses Kikuyus, he is done. He has no inspiring or galvanizing message to lead a revolution. He can definitely run for president in 2022 but it will be a much weaker Ruto running against a well known name like Raila but with very little kikuyu support.  In the next two years, the kikuyus will leave his side in droves.

What is wrong with MOAS. Where is it wrong. I don't just see tribes - I consider many things. That is why you'll find 11% here, 33% there, 44% here. For example in referendum of 2010 - I put Nos at 33% and yes at 67% - and it came down to 31% vis 69%. Opinion polls were saying 20% to 80%. In repeat election - I put Yes at 98% - I could see 2% voting for Ekuro Aukoth.

MOAS actually agree with most credible opinion polls except where they get wrong in cosmopolitan counties. That is where I correct them. Otherwise credible opinion polls when they sample homogeneous counties get it right - and those are figures I use to diaspora population - plus and minus local issues.

If MOAS was done now - Ruto would win.

Now what the future hold we will find out. BBI first has to pass. Time is running out. Uhuru will chicken out I believe...after CORONA...and then 2022 elections are 1yr away...I don't think he want divisive politics this soon.

The man wants to retire...I believe...after grand looting. He is lying to Raila about some "future BBI" while they are looting seriously.

Now when it come to ODM - what is new - Oparanya? Joho? Those are the only remaining Raila boys - everyone else bolted out. Matiangi and his GEMA buddies have their own plans. I believe Matiangi will be told to be DPORK and they will fish a PORK from GEMA - if GEMA elite don't want to end their eating.

I am glad you follow. Now of course you been telling us integrity does not matter but size of tribal coalition. You need to revise the MOAS patent you filed in 2013 - your genius move experiment flopped in Kibra as they met headlong with reality. In 2002 - despite lining up Kikuyu-Luhya ala NARC - Kanu lost all bigwigs Raila, Kalonzo, Saitoti - sealed its fate. The trouble is, with BBI Manifesto Raila can credibly dish out PM, DPM, 2 VPs etc- nonexistent posts to all PKs, Johos, Matiang’is and Oparanyas - and still dangle 35% devolution and gender parity without actually passing BBI. He will claim 100 days like Kibaki NARC.

Ruto cannot credibly dangle D/PM while loudly opposing BBI. So it tough to string Mdvds or Kalonzo huge egos. Your boy only has KADU/URP intact - exactly KANU 2002 minus few Kiambu MPs.

[Nefertiti]

The Kikuyu exodus from Jubilee Asili has been ongoing since 2018. Waiguru, Sabina, Lee Kinyanjui, Kanini Kega, Waruguru, etc - in fact all the governors - they peeled off one by one. These Mana Ngina attacks are the latest stroke - even Kuria and Nyoro have gone MIA. Literally only Murkomen and Shollei are siding with Ruto. Sudi is monkey with a grenade that Ruto needs to cage like Mandago. During Kibra he called Shebesh a malaya and unsavory stuff. Muthama is another venomous rattlesnake that will get Ruto a handful of Kamba but repulse all Kikuyus.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kiunjuri showed up back as CS in a new reshuffle - to replace tainted Kagwe or Macharia - his silence is thundering.

Ruto is a man without a clear coherent inclusive message. The time he spent promoting "tyranny of numbers" has defined him. If he loses Kikuyus, he is done. He has no inspiring or galvanizing message to lead a revolution. He can definitely run for president in 2022 but it will be a much weaker Ruto running against a well known name like Raila but with very little kikuyu support.  In the next two years, the kikuyus will leave his side in droves.

What is wrong with MOAS. Where is it wrong. I don't just see tribes - I consider many things. That is why you'll find 11% here, 33% there, 44% here. For example in referendum of 2010 - I put Nos at 33% and yes at 67% - and it came down to 31% vis 69%. Opinion polls were saying 20% to 80%. In repeat election - I put Yes at 98% - I could see 2% voting for Ekuro Aukoth.

MOAS actually agree with most credible opinion polls except where they get wrong in cosmopolitan counties. That is where I correct them. Otherwise credible opinion polls when they sample homogeneous counties get it right - and those are figures I use to diaspora population - plus and minus local issues.

If MOAS was done now - Ruto would win.

Now what the future hold we will find out. BBI first has to pass. Time is running out. Uhuru will chicken out I believe...after CORONA...and then 2022 elections are 1yr away...I don't think he want divisive politics this soon.

The man wants to retire...I believe...after grand looting. He is lying to Raila about some "future BBI" while they are looting seriously.

Now when it come to ODM - what is new - Oparanya? Joho? Those are the only remaining Raila boys - everyone else bolted out. Matiangi and his GEMA buddies have their own plans. I believe Matiangi will be told to be DPORK and they will fish a PORK from GEMA - if GEMA elite don't want to end their eating.

I am glad you follow. Now of course you been telling us integrity does not matter but size of tribal coalition. You need to revise the MOAS patent you filed in 2013 - your genius move experiment flopped in Kibra as they met headlong with reality. In 2002 - despite lining up Kikuyu-Luhya ala NARC - Kanu lost all bigwigs Raila, Kalonzo, Saitoti - sealed its fate. The trouble is, with BBI Manifesto Raila can credibly dish out PM, DPM, 2 VPs etc- nonexistent posts to all PKs, Johos, Matiang’is and Oparanyas - and still dangle 35% devolution and gender parity without actually passing BBI. He will claim 100 days like Kibaki NARC.

Ruto cannot credibly dangle D/PM while loudly opposing BBI. So it tough to string Mdvds or Kalonzo huge egos. Your boy only has KADU/URP intact - exactly KANU 2002 minus few Kiambu MPs.

[RV Pundit]

The exodus is not happening where it matters most - ground zero - and that is why Ruto should just play time - otherwise all those guys knows Gema ground is pretty hostile to their ideas - and soon they will run look for accomodation in hustler nations or risk being swept aside.

You need to carry people along - leaders are easy to bribe or intimidate - but you need to sell a message.

Ruto like in 2013 has managed to turn a dis-advantage (ICC then) into advantage. In fact I heard Raila complaining that guy has been in gov then want to bolt out the last 2yrs.Now imagine Raila is coming to take Jubilee mess - and Ruto is now transforming into the Change Candidate. Maajabu.

Ruto has a platform for 2022 - Hustler Nation - Raila has BBI/Anti-graft. Let see who wins.

Meanwhile Raila should trust GEMA - they are preparing the way for Joshua. You ODMers are the most delusional people.

As long as Ruto as the ground game - and as we head now into less than 2yrs into election - those guys in central risk losing if they not negotiate. The window is fast closing on them.

The Kikuyu exodus from Jubilee Asili has been ongoing since 2018. Waiguru, Sabina, Lee Kinyanjui, Kanini Kega, Waruguru, etc - in fact all the governors - they peeled off one by one. These Mana Ngina attacks are the latest stroke - even Kuria and Nyoro have gone MIA. Literally only Murkomen and Shollei are siding with Ruto. Sudi is monkey with a grenade that Ruto needs to cage like Mandago. During Kibra he called Shebesh a malaya and unsavory stuff. Muthama is another venomous rattlesnake that will get Ruto a handful of Kamba but repulse all Kikuyus.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kiunjuri showed up back as CS in a new reshuffle - to replace tainted Kagwe or Macharia - his silence is thundering.

Ruto is a man without a clear coherent inclusive message. The time he spent promoting "tyranny of numbers" has defined him. If he loses Kikuyus, he is done. He has no inspiring or galvanizing message to lead a revolution. He can definitely run for president in 2022 but it will be a much weaker Ruto running against a well known name like Raila but with very little kikuyu support.  In the next two years, the kikuyus will leave his side in droves.

What is wrong with MOAS. Where is it wrong. I don't just see tribes - I consider many things. That is why you'll find 11% here, 33% there, 44% here. For example in referendum of 2010 - I put Nos at 33% and yes at 67% - and it came down to 31% vis 69%. Opinion polls were saying 20% to 80%. In repeat election - I put Yes at 98% - I could see 2% voting for Ekuro Aukoth.

MOAS actually agree with most credible opinion polls except where they get wrong in cosmopolitan counties. That is where I correct them. Otherwise credible opinion polls when they sample homogeneous counties get it right - and those are figures I use to diaspora population - plus and minus local issues.

If MOAS was done now - Ruto would win.

Now what the future hold we will find out. BBI first has to pass. Time is running out. Uhuru will chicken out I believe...after CORONA...and then 2022 elections are 1yr away...I don't think he want divisive politics this soon.

The man wants to retire...I believe...after grand looting. He is lying to Raila about some "future BBI" while they are looting seriously.

Now when it come to ODM - what is new - Oparanya? Joho? Those are the only remaining Raila boys - everyone else bolted out. Matiangi and his GEMA buddies have their own plans. I believe Matiangi will be told to be DPORK and they will fish a PORK from GEMA - if GEMA elite don't want to end their eating.

I am glad you follow. Now of course you been telling us integrity does not matter but size of tribal coalition. You need to revise the MOAS patent you filed in 2013 - your genius move experiment flopped in Kibra as they met headlong with reality. In 2002 - despite lining up Kikuyu-Luhya ala NARC - Kanu lost all bigwigs Raila, Kalonzo, Saitoti - sealed its fate. The trouble is, with BBI Manifesto Raila can credibly dish out PM, DPM, 2 VPs etc- nonexistent posts to all PKs, Johos, Matiang’is and Oparanyas - and still dangle 35% devolution and gender parity without actually passing BBI. He will claim 100 days like Kibaki NARC.

Ruto cannot credibly dangle D/PM while loudly opposing BBI. So it tough to string Mdvds or Kalonzo huge egos. Your boy only has KADU/URP intact - exactly KANU 2002 minus few Kiambu MPs.

[Nefertiti]

Naturally "ground" is your trump card - cause it another horizon that never reach. You see as in PEV where solid precedent tell us it real - GEMA backing their own big boys is only thing we know for a fact. 2012 Karua cried iron lady sijui daughter of peasant - Michuki the homeguard merely verbally endorse Uhuru wa Kenyatta and it was game over. Hio ndoto ingine. You can't wind reality like we wind clocks here in fall and spring - Pwani have backed Baba since Ngala - now you claim they are Ruto - with Jumwa and Jicho Pevu as the evidence. Only Ganda ward  by-election can show us anything about Pwani ground. Msambweni maybe we will see soon - let see hustler candidate vs ODM. In Gusii you are here again ati one rally and few Joash Maang'i - when did Gusii fall in love with brutal Kalenjin? Where is the evidence for that? Since Nyachae they are split Raila-Uhuru but now the two are on same side with their blue eyed boy Matiang'i pretending to gun for PORK to excite ground.

Why do I know Ruto has URP pastoralist coalition? Cause nothing serious has changed there - no serious pastoralist has emerged ala Matiang'i - Duales are still with him. URP was already popular there in Jubilee 1 coalition with few MPs. Same in MATUSA. See? reality not conjecture or hope. Luhya - so Ruto is popular what stop serious crew say Malala or Weta backing him? Instead they distance themselves Not even a single senator back Ruto in entire Luhya - only a handful of pawns - Barasa, Washiali, Echesa. Only Raila has serious backing besides usual local influencers there. What is your objective evidence that Luhya have joined hustler movement? Any MCA or MP elected on Ruto party? I mean not Jubilee (original) obviously - which is now backing Raila. If you have a by-election in Mt Kenya right now - Ruto will pretend to respect Uhuru or Big 4 Agenda - and hide behind Jubilee. Otherwise his "ground" nonsense will be exposed.

Ati now Muthama unknown party will deliver Kamba Maybe try Sonko party.

The exodus is not happening where it matters most - ground zero - and that is why Ruto should just play time - otherwise all those guys knows Gema ground is pretty hostile to their ideas - and soon they will run look for accomodation in hustler nations or risk being swept aside.

You need to carry people along - leaders are easy to bribe or intimidate - but you need to sell a message.

Ruto like in 2013 has managed to turn a dis-advantage (ICC then) into advantage. In fact I heard Raila complaining that guy has been in gov then want to bolt out the last 2yrs.Now imagine Raila is coming to take Jubilee mess - and Ruto is now transforming into the Change Candidate. Maajabu.

Ruto has a platform for 2022 - Hustler Nation - Raila has BBI/Anti-graft. Let see who wins.

Meanwhile Raila should trust GEMA - they are preparing the way for Joshua. You ODMers are the most delusional people.

As long as Ruto as the ground game - and as we head now into less than 2yrs into election - those guys in central risk losing if they not negotiate. The window is fast closing on them.

[Nowayhaha]

Naturally "ground" is your trump card - cause it another horizon that never reach. You see as in PEV where solid precedent tell us it real - GEMA backing their own big boys is only thing we know for a fact. 2012 Karua cried iron lady sijui daughter of peasant - Michuki the homeguard merely verbally endorse Uhuru wa Kenyatta and it was game over. Hio ndoto ingine. You can't wind reality like we wind clocks here in fall and spring - Pwani have backed Baba since Ngala - now you claim they are Ruto - with Jumwa and Jicho Pevu as the evidence. Only Ganda ward  by-election can show us anything about Pwani ground. Msambweni maybe we will see soon - let see hustler candidate vs ODM. In Gusii you are here again ati one rally and few Joash Maang'i - when did Gusii fall in love with brutal Kalenjin? Where is the evidence for that? Since Nyachae they are split Raila-Uhuru but now the two are on same side with their blue eyed boy Matiang'i pretending to gun for PORK to excite ground.

Why do I know Ruto has URP pastoralist coalition? Cause nothing serious has changed there - no serious pastoralist has emerged ala Matiang'i - Duales are still with him. URP was already popular there in Jubilee 1 coalition with few MPs. Same in MATUSA. See? reality not conjecture or hope. Luhya - so Ruto is popular what stop serious crew say Malala or Weta backing him? Instead they distance themselves Not even a single senator back Ruto in entire Luhya - only a handful of pawns - Barasa, Washiali, Echesa. Only Raila has serious backing besides usual local influencers there. What is your objective evidence that Luhya have joined hustler movement? Any MCA or MP elected on Ruto party? I mean not Jubilee (original) obviously - which is now backing Raila. If you have a by-election in Mt Kenya right now - Ruto will pretend to respect Uhuru or Big 4 Agenda - and hide behind Jubilee. Otherwise his "ground" nonsense will be exposed.

Ati now Muthama unknown party will deliver Kamba Maybe try Sonko party.

The exodus is not happening where it matters most - ground zero - and that is why Ruto should just play time - otherwise all those guys knows Gema ground is pretty hostile to their ideas - and soon they will run look for accomodation in hustler nations or risk being swept aside.

You need to carry people along - leaders are easy to bribe or intimidate - but you need to sell a message.

Ruto like in 2013 has managed to turn a dis-advantage (ICC then) into advantage. In fact I heard Raila complaining that guy has been in gov then want to bolt out the last 2yrs.Now imagine Raila is coming to take Jubilee mess - and Ruto is now transforming into the Change Candidate. Maajabu.

Ruto has a platform for 2022 - Hustler Nation - Raila has BBI/Anti-graft. Let see who wins.

Meanwhile Raila should trust GEMA - they are preparing the way for Joshua. You ODMers are the most delusional people.

As long as Ruto as the ground game - and as we head now into less than 2yrs into election - those guys in central risk losing if they not negotiate. The window is fast closing on them.

Ive told you time and again , dont bank on current elected polticians  , 90% of them dont make it back . The ones who make it actually hang on the coattail of National leaders . You need to listen to mashinani .

[GeeMail]

The question is how Ruto will do a Bomas or Tharaka Nithi from outside government. All other things are details.

[Nowayhaha]

The question is how Ruto will do a Bomas or Tharaka Nithi from outside government. All other things are details.

You guys are funny , werent you the same guys saying it was Ruto through Davis Chirchir rigged 2013  elections while in IEBC and 2017 through the server .
So essentially do you agree Ruto didnt rig 2013  and 2017  elections ?

[RV Pundit]

Elections can be rigged but it's very hard nowadays - with polling station capped at 500 - and with all the electronic mass social media.

The question is how Ruto will do a Bomas or Tharaka Nithi from outside government. All other things are details.

[RV Pundit]

Yes, all chirchir does is to create systems, like he did for Jubilee, simple parrallel tallying system based on USSD code - where each Jubilee agent submit - data on voter turnout throught the day - and then total votes cast. I think he is already tapped by Ruto for that.

You guys are funny , werent you the same guys saying it was Ruto through Davis Chirchir rigged 2013  elections while in IEBC and 2017 through the server .
So essentially do you agree Ruto didnt rig 2013  and 2017  elections ?

[Nowayhaha]

Yes, all chirchir does is to create systems, like he did for Jubilee, simple parrallel tallying system based on USSD code - where each Jubilee agent submit - data on voter turnout throught the day - and then total votes cast. I think he is already tapped by Ruto for that.

You guys are funny , werent you the same guys saying it was Ruto through Davis Chirchir rigged 2013  elections while in IEBC and 2017 through the server .
So essentially do you agree Ruto didnt rig 2013  and 2017  elections ?

He was so effective and efficient that by 1900Hrs or there about we would already know the outcome of the elections . while ODM/CORD/NASA still didnt even have agents leave alone results in Jubilee strong Holds .
This is partly the reason ODM doesnt want to see a national party .Aparty with representative in all parts of Kenya , ownership in all parts of Kenya .Its easier to get agents in all parts of Kenya if the party has representation and election nominees in all parts  of Kenya

[RV Pundit]

Yes I saw the system, pretty cool, agents had some of number they could authenticate (secure), and then every hour, they submit information, and Jubilee had information throughout the day, and after couting, they submitted the tallies.

IEBC does this - but it's good to have your own system.

NASA parrallel thing was demolished by JUbilee so I cannot blame them - although NASA made a mistake to bring in Americans and Canadians - I think if they got some local boys - nobody would have cared.

So Ruto if he will be anti-deep state - will need to get to plan for them - and the best thing to do is to beam the results live on social media and elsewhere.

It's going to be important to get agents all over the country. Yes elections are expensive....so maybe you need 10B minimum.