RV PUNDIT - PLEASE ADVICE THE % OF KALENJIN IN NAROK, TRANSZOI & NAKURU COUNTIES

[Nowayhaha]

RV , refer to highlighted below , a year ago already had predicted Raila plan , when you were still instisting using violence as a strategy in politics

Don't personalize. I don't agree with majority of Kalenjin mindset. 
But i am being dissapasionate and telling you the truth like I have always done.
Kalenjin minority in Narok are already getting kicked - I and many predicted this would happen.
This is just the nature of the beast.
Maasai are in position where they are getting alarmed - so Narok just prepare for many wars and bloodsheed.
When I predict something - It's based on my knolwedge and anlysis  - it's not what I think.
If I was thinking like that - I wouldn't have married a GEMA woman and got kids with.

Let hope for the best - but definitely Uhuru-Ruto fallout is VERY BAD NEWS.
Kalenjin are almost fanatically backing Ruto -
If they miss PORK - they will not miss "land grievances" after "rigging allegation"
They will not take betrayal by GEMA lightly.

That I know because I know their thinking.

It's like predicting how Luos will react.

The problem I see with our people now is youth unemployment, their inability to do usual urban migration like western kenya ( I read some statistics that had 40% of Bungoma men out of county). In 1992 - maybe you needed to import warriors - now - everywhere in RV - kalenjin have so many idle youths - you can eaisly get a million fighting force.

Now add that youth unemployment to Ruto politics- and you wake up the land grievance monster of Jomo Kenyatta - and you have a civil war in your hand.

Uhuru has to understand this very very clearly - and they need to know if they go man to man with Ruto - it will be tragic. A lot of people will die. Millions more will suffer.

This is MAD - both sides will lose heavily - there will  be no winner.

RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to  90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin

From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else  , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.

So RV, in 2007-2008 you managed to remove en mass Kikuyus from the most 5 populous Kalenjin counties and including Uasin Ngishu , Majority relocated and settled in Nakuru county . So incase  of violence in 2022 who will you evict (there is a small Kikuyu population around eldoret ) .This is what you are not seeing  . You claimed to have data on population census tribe wise in Kalenjin counties - table them you will realize  Kikuyu population is close to asymptotic. However in the counties there are counties where Kalenjins are a significant minority -This is the area which will be hard hit .Mass population eviction will happen in times of war .

Raila is setting stage for that - If you cant clearly see , Raila is trying to use the 41 vs 1 strategy against Ruto and Kalenjin , In 2007 Kibaki and his Mt Kenya Mafia and majority of Gema didnt see this , they only realized it once Luhya was gone even with Awori  being Kibakis VP , and Kamba gone when Ngilu abandoned Kibaki and ran away with NARC party .

This s Railas plan , deny Ruto vying with Jubilee and turn Gema against Ruto by using Violence rhetoric .

Luckily Ruto knows what is happening and Ruto knows they cant afford to go that route .

[RV Pundit]

Again you continue with shamelss character assisination. I have never insisted on using any violence. But as analyst I recognise that part of the reason Mt Kenya support Ruto is the fear of repeat of 2007. It's one reason it not been easy to dump Ruto compared to say Raila.

I also believe Ruto signed in this deal with that as insurance against future betrayal - the fear of diaspora fate - has made many kikuyus to really think twice - before dumping Ruto. Otherwise power concede nothing - and they would have just dumped Ruto like they have done to Raila and Kalonzo - like nothing happened.

Of course it's not only reason why Ruto is popular there....but it's definitely part of the reason.

Again I DO NOT advocate violence but I analyze politics disspassionately. The 1m hostage that you do not want to acknowledge - but here we ANALYZE politics without fear or favour.

I CAN TELL YOU SINCE 1990s - Kipsigis have been voting for Maasai candidate in Transmara - FOR PEACE. In fact Moi use to tell them point blank - you choose land or politics. Eventually Ngeno went rogue - and decided to win - because kipisgis are popolous in many places - he won - before Kibaki PEV of 2007 - Maasai started killing kipsigis before even presidential voters were counted - for daring win Kilgoris seat - and broke all the ballot boxes - election had to be cancelled and - in the repeat- Ruto told Ngeno to step down - he refused - and hated Ruto until recently.

Right now a kipsigis can win govenor seat in Narok - but Maasai will unleash violence never seen before - and make life very hard for kipsigis diaspora pale. So kipsigis have to decide - are they ready for war with Maasai now - maybe not - so they will have to delay any ambition to politically dominate Maasai.  Is it even worth going to war jfor a govenor seat?- so kipsigis will just pick the most pro-kipsigis maasai - and reject haters like Ole Kina.

This is new normal for Mt Kenya diaspora in RV - after 2007 - they have to choose politics or land.

RV , refer to highlighted below , a year ago already had predicted Raila plan , when you were still instisting using violence as a strategy in politics