kenyaPlato - Koitalel was no joke

[RV Pundit]

Arcardian.There is something call marginal utility.There is so much you can milk.We need change the economic structure. WHEN WE BUILD A RAILWAY LASTING 100YRS WHY BURDEN THE CURRENT GENERATION. if I was the president I would borrow 100yr century bond of 100billion dollars and bridge the infrastructure deficit.Once you build these things you don't build it again..you just maintain it.These is how Europe developed.Once you have infrastructure then you can start attracting manufacturing..of course we also need to invest in people..but the best investment is finding them jobs..and that we do by manufacturing stuff..

[RV Pundit]

Pundit let me summarize
 you/nkalenjini=Quantity mass production china style
Me/ Ameru= Quality, niche markets Denmark style.
And you wonder why Meru tea fetchea 3 times price of Kericho nkalenjini tea?? Pundit you are stubbornly big and thick headed you must have been a bully and rebel in your youth.

That is actually true..but I think you already hit marginal utility..meanwhile we still have land to expand..so our production will increase through that..and yours may also increase if you go high value

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Arcardian.There is something call marginal utility.There is so much you can milk.We need change the economic structure. WHEN WE BUILD A RAILWAY LASTING 100YRS WHY BURDEN THE CURRENT GENERATION. if I was the president I would borrow 100yr century bond of 100billion dollars and bridge the infrastructure deficit.Once you build these things you don't build it again..you just maintain it.These is how Europe developed.Once you have infrastructure then you can start attracting manufacturing..of course we also need to invest in people..but the best investment is finding them jobs..and that we do by manufacturing stuff..

Sometimes in 2013, a plan was hatched to raise Kenya’s installed generation capacity to 6,762 megawatts in just 40 months.

As to who would consume the power and whether the ultimate goal would end up with cheaper electricity to consumers, was not given much thought and seven years later, the scheme has short circuited Kenya’s single off-taker for electricity-Kenya Power

The Jubilee Administration’s plans to add 5,000MW to the country’s electricity generation was one of the most criticised ambitions but it pushed on anyway.

The argument then was that Kenya was going to grow industries, have an electric train on the standard gauge railway line, build resort cities and establish several special economic zones with huge demand for power.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/how-too-much-energy-generation-short-circuited-kenya-power-1925156

That is what happens when someone is afflicted with infrastructure-at-any-cost disease, common sense and planning seems to evade them. There is overcapacity, and the returns on this investment are not forthcoming.

The same has happened with SGR and other mega infrastructure projects, the anticipated private investments that would enable the country to pay for it have not materialized.

Public borrowing has crowded out private credit for businesses, that is why the business climate has been so tough the last few years. Jubilee knew this but it was an opportunity too good to pass for plundering the country.

[RV Pundit]

Nice problems to have. Overcapacity. Bring it on. Easy to solve. Export power. If not lower the price and use it to blast stones.

Arcardian.There is something call marginal utility.There is so much you can milk.We need change the economic structure. WHEN WE BUILD A RAILWAY LASTING 100YRS WHY BURDEN THE CURRENT GENERATION. if I was the president I would borrow 100yr century bond of 100billion dollars and bridge the infrastructure deficit.Once you build these things you don't build it again..you just maintain it.These is how Europe developed.Once you have infrastructure then you can start attracting manufacturing..of course we also need to invest in people..but the best investment is finding them jobs..and that we do by manufacturing stuff..

Sometimes in 2013, a plan was hatched to raise Kenya’s installed generation capacity to 6,762 megawatts in just 40 months.

As to who would consume the power and whether the ultimate goal would end up with cheaper electricity to consumers, was not given much thought and seven years later, the scheme has short circuited Kenya’s single off-taker for electricity-Kenya Power

The Jubilee Administration’s plans to add 5,000MW to the country’s electricity generation was one of the most criticised ambitions but it pushed on anyway.

The argument then was that Kenya was going to grow industries, have an electric train on the standard gauge railway line, build resort cities and establish several special economic zones with huge demand for power.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/how-too-much-energy-generation-short-circuited-kenya-power-1925156

That is what happens when someone is afflicted with infrastructure-at-any-cost disease, common sense and planning seems to evade them. There is overcapacity, and the returns on this investment are not forthcoming.

The same has happened with SGR and other mega infrastructure projects, the anticipated private investments that would enable the country to pay for it have not materialized.

Public borrowing has crowded out private credit for businesses, that is why the business climate has been so tough the last few years. Jubilee knew this but it was an opportunity too good to pass for plundering the country.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Nice problems to have. Overcapacity. Bring it on. Easy to solve. Export power. If not lower the price and use it to blast stones.

Have you ever run a business, Pundit? One can't afford excess inventory or excess buildings, or machinery lying around. Everything has to be paid for, it adds up quickly and eats into your bottom line. No wonder feckless Kale heads ran virtually all Gov parastatals to the ground during the disastrous 24 years at the helm. You have no business sense or acumen. Siasa ya kifua kifua tu. 

[RV Pundit]

Nice problems to have. Overcapacity. Bring it on. Easy to solve. Export power. If not lower the price and use it to blast stones.

Have you ever run a business, Pundit? One can't afford excess inventory or excess buildings, or machinery lying around. Everything has to be paid for, it adds up quickly and eats into your bottom line. No wonder feckless Kale heads ran virtually all Gov parastatals to the ground during the disastrous 24 years at the helm. You have no business sense or acumen. Siasa ya kifua kifua tu. 

Use you management skill to become pork for 24hrs..at least kalenjin have 24 as pork and now 21 as dpork

[Nefertiti]

I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this  https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540

Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.

China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?

Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

I have been at the forefront of challenging the current international development flavor of the month which is called “infrastructure-led growth” — which is a complete oxymoron. Now, I’m increasingly looking at global finance as the new extractive industry in Africa.

They’re no longer interested in minerals, they’re interested in interest, as in high yield financial instruments.

And these mega infrastructure investments is one of the key instruments of trying to extract the surplus from the continent.

You know, this prognosis was already gaining currency when we began to see debt distress so soon after HIPC (debt forgiveness for Highly Indebted Poor Countries). We were forgiven debt the other day… then we had “Africa Rising”… and then you ask why is it that “Africa Rising” has quickly turned into again in debt distress? And I think that once we begin to see that there are people who have been force-feeding us capital, both from the East and the West, but they’re really looking for what the markets call “hunting for yield” so they can earn high returns for their pension funds because the returns [elsewhere] have fallen quite a bit.

I hope that coronavirus will be the final nail in the coffin of “infrastructure-led growth”

Nothing has changed, China has joined the Berlin conference for exploitation of Africa. As Robina put it, we have lots of broke unproductive folks who can't afford their next meal, will they eat infrastructure? Take care of mwanainchi then you will have the tax base to construct your own roads, railways and bridges without borrowing from foreigners and jeopardizing your sovereignty.

[RV Pundit]

You clearly don't understand.
Let me break it down for you.
We have 3 sectors in any modern economy.
We have private sector - from SME to big Coorps.
We have public sector - parastals to regulators to Deep State
We have individuals - me and you.

The economy can only grow when all those 3 are investing, engaging, producing, name it.

You guys want the public sector to completely disengage -and live the private sector and individuals to do all the investing.

That can only work in developed world - where all basic infrastructure have been built - and country doesn't have to build new roads or sewages or rails - they just maintain it.

Kenya we have well known problem - huge infrastructure deficit - that is gov job.

It's NOT gov job to baby sit private sector and individuals. Maybe they can offer tax incentive - but generally gov should focus on what gov need to do.

And that will solve all these economic theories - gov job is not there to promote the economy - it's there to provide you with water in your house, electricity, paved road, sewage, security and that is pretty much it.

I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this  https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540

Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.

China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?

Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.

[Nefertiti]

Those are antiquated economics and 20th C strategy. You can't replicate China and Asian Tigers 50 years ago model. Because everyone cannot be world factory - commonsense. Leave that to Vietnam and Bangladesh. Command economy, central planning, slavish labor, etc - 50 years ago when Japs, Europe moved on to hitec stuff and leave low- grade industry to China. Now China is leaving that space to Vietnam, Burma - which are ripe to take over geographically, demographically, politically. Kenya won't cut it and as you can see services have grown as mfg remain at dismal 10%. Cause it same old bicycle, Haco biro, wheelbarrow, weetabix, pesticide, flour mills, etc. Not computers or electronics or even motor bikes. Kenya socioeconomic structure is not conducive to manufacturing.

Focus on what works. Education fuels all sectors - skilled labor is key. Public sector has limited taxes so what we discuss here is optimal utility. The upgrade of old rail is all that was needed not $5B usd SGR which quickly exhaust national creditworth as loss- minting machine. Intercounty highways are good but there is a limit. Maybe give governor more money for murram road - that's all rural areas are worth.. Free or cheap housing is nonsense- has failed even in rich Singapore or Malaysia. People will live where they can afford. All those run-down GoK houses in Nairobi and Athi River were last repaired in 80s I bet it ghost workers who live there leeching on taxpayer.

Public spending directly affects private sector - creditflow - so you cannot say GoK should not babysit the economy. Last-mile is more nonsense - cause folks can't afford power if they have no food or housing. Most Jubilee projects were overkill or looting schemes, including Turkwell excess power. Development needs proper thinking ala Kibaki cause priorities matter.

Maybe only education has infinite marginal utility. Jubilee 2 is doing development - Jubilee 1 was many mispriorities and wastage.

You clearly don't understand.
Let me break it down for you.
We have 3 sectors in any modern economy.
We have private sector - from SME to big Coorps.
We have public sector - parastals to regulators to Deep State
We have individuals - me and you.

The economy can only grow when all those 3 are investing, engaging, producing, name it.

You guys want the public sector to completely disengage -and live the private sector and individuals to do all the investing.

That can only work in developed world - where all basic infrastructure have been built - and country doesn't have to build new roads or sewages or rails - they just maintain it.

Kenya we have well known problem - huge infrastructure deficit - that is gov job.

It's NOT gov job to baby sit private sector and individuals. Maybe they can offer tax incentive - but generally gov should focus on what gov need to do.

And that will solve all these economic theories - gov job is not there to promote the economy - it's there to provide you with water in your house, electricity, paved road, sewage, security and that is pretty much it.

I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this  https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540

Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.

China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?

Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.

[RV Pundit]

Looking at long term project like SGR with short term lenses make the rest of your drivel not really worth it.
US interstate highway was built in 1960s
US rail system was built 2 centuries ago.
Now all the US does is maintain them.

Germans did the same earlier on (autobann)
China did this in 1990s.
You cannot go to software issues before you fix hardware issues.

Yes Kenya Power may suffer now - but in 10yrs they will be glad - gov subsidized those connections.
Once everyone has been connected to the grid - we would have sorted supply side issues forever - bar annual maintenance fee.
We can then go to demand side.

We need to build inter-county highways akin to the US (KENHA highways)
We need to ensure every household is connected to pipe water and for urban areas - to sewage system.
We need to pave all roads..all kura, kerra and county roads paved.

Construction industry alone can employ many and contribute to GDP - if we focus on huge public sector construction.

This is called infrastructure deficit - and once we have ticked the basic infrastructure boxes - we can then start looking at your theories of maximizing and optimizing.

Those are antiquated economics and 20th C strategy. You can't replicate China and Asian Tigers 50 years ago model. Because everyone cannot be world factory - commonsense. Leave that to Vietnam and Bangladesh. Command economy, central planning, slavish labor, etc - 50 years ago when Japs, Europe moved on to hitec stuff and leave low- grade industry to China. Now China is leaving that space to Vietnam, Burma - which are ripe to take over geographically, demographically, politically. Kenya won't cut it and as you can see services have grown as mfg remain at dismal 10%. Cause it same old bicycle, Haco biro, wheelbarrow, weetabix, pesticide, flour mills, etc. Not computers or electronics or even motor bikes. Kenya socioeconomic structure is not conducive to manufacturing.

Focus on what works. Education fuels all sectors - skilled labor is key. Public sector has limited taxes so what we discuss here is optimal utility. The upgrade of old rail is all that was needed not $5B usd SGR which quickly exhaust national creditworth as loss- minting machine. Intercounty highways are good but there is a limit. Maybe give governor more money for murram road - that's all rural areas are worth.. Free or cheap housing is nonsense- has failed even in rich Singapore or Malaysia. People will live where they can afford. All those run-down GoK houses in Nairobi and Athi River were last repaired in 80s I bet it ghost workers who live there leeching on taxpayer.

Public spending directly affects private sector - creditflow - so you cannot say GoK should not babysit the economy. Last-mile is more nonsense - cause folks can't afford power if they have no food or housing. Most Jubilee projects were overkill or looting schemes, including Turkwell excess power. Development needs proper thinking ala Kibaki cause priorities matter.

Maybe only education has infinite marginal utility. Jubilee 2 is doing development - Jubilee 1 was many mispriorities and wastage.

You clearly don't understand.
Let me break it down for you.
We have 3 sectors in any modern economy.
We have private sector - from SME to big Coorps.
We have public sector - parastals to regulators to Deep State
We have individuals - me and you.

The economy can only grow when all those 3 are investing, engaging, producing, name it.

You guys want the public sector to completely disengage -and live the private sector and individuals to do all the investing.

That can only work in developed world - where all basic infrastructure have been built - and country doesn't have to build new roads or sewages or rails - they just maintain it.

Kenya we have well known problem - huge infrastructure deficit - that is gov job.

It's NOT gov job to baby sit private sector and individuals. Maybe they can offer tax incentive - but generally gov should focus on what gov need to do.

And that will solve all these economic theories - gov job is not there to promote the economy - it's there to provide you with water in your house, electricity, paved road, sewage, security and that is pretty much it.

I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this  https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540

Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.

China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?

Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.

[Nefertiti]

Firstly: all those countries you point have little or nothing in common to Kenya or Sub Sahara. Europe was long industrialized but infra destroyed by WW2. So the "software" was already in place which guaranteed ROI from the IMF loans. US, UK, Tigers, China, Indonesia, Brazil, etc - were either 1) liquid heavy industrial economies who paid cash, 2)used slavish labor, 3)and/or had commodity booms. You will be pressed to show a borrow & build success story. SGR is one example of wastage or suboptimal investment - cause nothing exist in Narok or Kisumu that old rail could not carry.

Secondly, those alien examples are 30, 50, 100 years ago. Manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity is a hard nut today - cause the factory has been automated. All the mhindi "industrialists" in Kenya - Chandaria, Merali, Vimal Shah or Kirubi - are flour mills, toiletries, pesticides, tyres - not pricey electronics, autos, tractors - that would tilt massive trade deficit. Low grade needs illiberal structures you have in China or Vietnam but not Kenya. Teachers want to be paid like doctors, doctors want to be MPs, MPs want governor or PORK salary. There are no trade unions in China, Vietnam, Ethiopia - no labor courts and no democracy. Kenya is politically-, structurally, time- and etc-barred from low-grade manufacturing. Meaning the hard infra you tout are unnecessary or suboptimal ingredients for development. Kenya path is services - which mean skilled labor - education - which fit perfectly with the demographic boom.

Thirdly from 1 & 2 you see software comes before hardware in Kenya and most Sub Sahara. Kibera folks are not unproductive cause they lack house or sewer - mostly they are poorly educated and/or have no marketable skills. A mere programmer like yourself probably live in Lavington - it not hardware but software that differentiate you from slum dwellers. GDP would still grow whether you do SGR or Metrorail - it a question of priority. KQ and Safcom probably have equal turnover or GDP - yet one mint losses the other profits. KQ could claim the Boeing Dreamliners are longterm investment - Project Mawingu - which is nonsense cause there is no projected future market. If you borrowed twice over and build SGR 2 and 3 to Kisumu, Turkana and Garissa - GDP would still grow - before serious debt crisis emerge.

I know it difficult for keen historian like Pundit to let go of antique ideas. It akin to some fools now still obsessed with real estate or land as malls mint losses. It was windfall in 70-90's population boom so they think it will always work out. They are stuck with mortgages and auctioneers - time long moved the cheese.

Looking at long term project like SGR with short term lenses make the rest of your drivel not really worth it.
US interstate highway was built in 1960s
US rail system was built 2 centuries ago.
Now all the US does is maintain them.

Germans did the same earlier on (autobann)
China did this in 1990s.
You cannot go to software issues before you fix hardware issues.

Yes Kenya Power may suffer now - but in 10yrs they will be glad - gov subsidized those connections.
Once everyone has been connected to the grid - we would have sorted supply side issues forever - bar annual maintenance fee.
We can then go to demand side.

We need to build inter-county highways akin to the US (KENHA highways)
We need to ensure every household is connected to pipe water and for urban areas - to sewage system.
We need to pave all roads..all kura, kerra and county roads paved.

Construction industry alone can employ many and contribute to GDP - if we focus on huge public sector construction.

This is called infrastructure deficit - and once we have ticked the basic infrastructure boxes - we can then start looking at your theories of maximizing and optimizing.

[RV Pundit]

Robina, you're just out of your depth.
There is no new theory for development that we are waiting for.
It will remain agagrain/agri economy  (low income countries)
Transition into low grade manufacturing (middle income countries)
Then into high end manufacturing and tech (high income countries)

Kenya has to transition from low middle income to proper middle income by trippling the economy - from 100B - 300B - with population of 60B - by 2030 - at minimum we need to be at 250B dollars to join middle class countries.

Kenya has a nice problem - huge infrastructure deficit - huge housing deficit.
This can be good employer for majority of unskilled kenyans.

Now the question of capital - you can leverage or invest saving.
As long as we borrow prudently - long maturity loan of 50-100yrs - we can get where we want faster
That is leverage.

SGR for example is mostly long term loan.
I don't know where the pressure to repay it come from?
The maturity is 30-50yrs.

If there is a lender like IMF or WB or China or Eurobond - dolling out 50-100yr long maturing loan - we should take it.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Firstly: all those countries you point have little or nothing in common to Kenya or Sub Sahara. Europe was long industrialized but infra destroyed by WW2. So the "software" was already in place which guaranteed ROI from the IMF loans. US, UK, Tigers, China, Indonesia, Brazil, etc - were either 1) liquid heavy industrial economies who paid cash, 2)used slavish labor, 3)and/or had commodity booms. You will be pressed to show a borrow & build success story. SGR is one example of wastage or suboptimal investment - cause nothing exist in Narok or Kisumu that old rail could not carry.

Secondly, those alien examples are 30, 50, 100 years ago. Manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity is a hard nut today - cause the factory has been automated. All the mhindi "industrialists" in Kenya - Chandaria, Merali, Vimal Shah or Kirubi - are flour mills, toiletries, pesticides, tyres - not pricey electronics, autos, tractors - that would tilt massive trade deficit. Low grade needs illiberal structures you have in China or Vietnam but not Kenya. Teachers want to be paid like doctors, doctors want to be MPs, MPs want governor or PORK salary. There are no trade unions in China, Vietnam, Ethiopia - no labor courts and no democracy. Kenya is politically-, structurally, time- and etc-barred from low-grade manufacturing. Meaning the hard infra you tout are unnecessary or suboptimal ingredients for development. Kenya path is services - which mean skilled labor - education - which fit perfectly with the demographic boom.

Thirdly from 1 & 2 you see software comes before hardware in Kenya and most Sub Sahara. Kibera folks are not unproductive cause they lack house or sewer - mostly they are poorly educated and/or have no marketable skills. A mere programmer like yourself probably live in Lavington - it not hardware but software that differentiate you from slum dwellers. GDP would still grow whether you do SGR or Metrorail - it a question of priority. KQ and Safcom probably have equal turnover or GDP - yet one mint losses the other profits. KQ could claim the Boeing Dreamliners are longterm investment - Project Mawingu - which is nonsense cause there is no projected future market. If you borrowed twice over and build SGR 2 and 3 to Kisumu, Turkana and Garissa - GDP would still grow - before serious debt crisis emerge.

I know it difficult for keen historian like Pundit to let go of antique ideas. It akin to some fools now still obsessed with real estate or land as malls mint losses. It was windfall in 70-90's population boom so they think it will always work out. They are stuck with mortgages and auctioneers - time long moved the cheese.

*vigorous claps*

Well put, Robina!

Kweli you have this guy's number, you checkmate him everywhere.

[RV Pundit]

Interestingly, I didn't find anything worth rebutting from her.
I guess we are on different wavelength.
For example - he misquotes Vietnam - and yet Vietnam is following footsteps of China - and supposedly China model is gone.
Closer home - Ethiopia has shown us what public sector can do - to famine poster child - to country that has grown at 10% for nearly 3 decades.

Most of you just copy paste 1st world arguments and apply it in 3rd world country.

*vigorous claps*

Well put, Robina!

Kweli you have this guy's number, you checkmate him everywhere.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I am curious.  Is there a single country(not some small tropical tax haven island) that is developed and has never been industrialized?

[RV Pundit]

I am curious.  Is there a single country(not some small tropical tax haven island) that is developed and has never been industrialized?

Spain developed by looting gold and other minerals from south America. Yes unless you strike a natural resource jackpot like middle east..you have to industralize.