Ara - isn't Mdvd backing Ruto again? You are too quick to write off Oparanya and Malala - who are the best among Mulembe parade of Below Average Joes.
I bet Oparanya and retiring governors are angling for CS under BBI 2 hybrid. Half CS will be MPs according to early leakage - so expect Oparanya to run in Butere - and Joho Kisauni. Mdvd has outlived himself - at 56
- been VP, DPM and name it and still barely controls Vihiga.
If Raila gets PORK - Oparanya bags Luhya with machinery boost. If Ruto gets PORK - with youth advantage - he directly nets Bukusu and Luhya bulk for a generation like Moi did with Maragoli.
Oparanya and Joho have a mountain to climb - angling to succeed Raila - who will soon go senile. They will be small regional gods but neither has the mettle to succeed Raila.
Oparanya is retiring having served two terms. I think Malala is one front runner hoping to ride Oparanya sucess but ethnicity will work against him.
Western or Luhya is totally divided. I predict a four-way split. Wamalwa-Atwolis will back Pro-Uhuru-Gideon camp and will get the least votes (not even 1%). MaDVD will run as always (4%). Raila-Oparanya will be competitive in areas bordering Luo(4%). Ruto will carry Bukusu, wangas and related(4%).
Malala big problem - he is a Luo living amongst Luhyas.