Robina - you can start doing Jubilee MOAS now

[RV Pundit]

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We will soon find out who btw Ruto and Uhuru is the king . The die is now cast. The Rubicon river has been crossed.

Let us find out how the 55% of Jubilee cookie will crumble . And what Uhuru will give to his successor if anything.

Starting from the Coast, Northeastern, Eastern, central, rift valley, Nyanza and western - the leader in Jubilee now have to choose Jubilee Coalition (with KANU+Wiper) and Jubilee Asili.

ODM have their corner - basically Luo Nyanza, part of Western and Mijikenda.

MaDVD and Weta have their little corner in Western and alied.

Look so far 2022 will be a battle btw Raila (ODM) plus mt Kenya stooge, Ruto (Jubilee Asili) plus mt kenya stooge, Kalonzo+Gideon+plus Uhuru mt Kenya stooge (Jubilee coalition), and MaDVD/Weta (if they don't merge with Ruto).

Prima facia,none of these coalitions will meet the 50% + threshold unless they were to agree to merge or we go for second round of voting. Well unless, Ruto can whitewash Uhuru stooge in GEMA.

But first, let see if BBI will see the light of day - looking increasingly likely we will get weak ass PM -  which works well for all the parties

[Nowayhaha]

You fail to mention Uhuru has poor leadership skills.
Uhuru single handedly killed KANU by associating with Raila by the time he was realising  ODM was KANU incarnate. Right now he is on the verge of Killing Jubilee by association with Raila. For this reason I think Ruto wont let it happen by either taking over Jubilee or by forming another party.
Biwott is being vindicated it was wrong for MOI and Ruto to support Uhuru as KANU chairman in 2003.

[Nefertiti]

Gideon and Kaloozer will not run alone- it why they are in Uhuru corner unlike Mdvd. Useless Gideon present value is appeasing Kalenjin along with Isaac, Kamar, Poghisio. This isolate Nandi and diminish chance of PEV2.

BBI remains big wild card but options remain.


1. BBI 2 parliamentary
Raila PORK + Uhuru PM vs Mdvd PORK + Ruto PM

2. BBI 1 fake PM
Raila PORK + Uhuru stooge (likely PK) + Giddy vs Ruto PORK + Mdvd VP + Kiunjuri PM

3. Status quo
Raila PORK + Uhuru stooge PK vs Ruto PORK + Mdvd or Kiunjuri DPORK

The status quo is complicated for Ruto cause entitled Mdvd is unlikely to want DPORK. Mt Kenya is gone yet it still very hard to nail Luhya without Mdvd as PORK. Railsa of course already has half Luhya and any "betrayal" of Mdvd like 2013 by Ruto will bag Raila big chunk. Luhya know Mdvd, Weta v are punda 2nd tier worse than Kalonzo.

Mt Kenya with Uhuru pulling the lever for Raila- give Raila headstart. All the tribal pouring of Mau Mau Rd and coffee goodies by Uhuru and Wagurugurus defection is big nightmare. Now if say Ruto pick Kiunjuri vs Raila-PK - he lose Luhya to Mdvd and Raila - and still only hope for a chunk of GEMA. If Ruto pick Mdvd vs Raila-PK - he lose GEMA - and Raila maintains his Luo+Mijikenda on top of GEMA.

Ruto best bet is eat humble pie - back Kiunjuri-Mdvd ticket   ... and become fake PM or Majority Leader. And back to square zero of MOUs and "numbers" with no real power.

[RV Pundit]

Yes, part of it, Uhuru, if indeed he is retiring, might not want to engage in a war that will benefit someone else, so for him, if things get hot, he will leave everyone to sort themselves. Things will certainly get hot if he really wants to fight Ruto.

I am not convinced Uhuru is going to put a fight - he is using the Railas and kalonzo - to complete his term - and then he will retire.

But if Uhuru does get persuaded to influence his succession and worse to somehow extend his stay in power - then he will be the biggest looser.

Maybe Uhuru has changed but Uhuru I know is too lazy like Gideon Moi to sustain political wars - so unless he was to get Raila to fight his wars - he won't.

You fail to mention Uhuru has poor leadership skills.
Uhuru single handedly killed KANU by associating with Raila by the time he was realising  ODM was KANU incarnate. Right now he is on the verge of Killing Jubilee by association with Raila. For this reason I think Ruto wont let it happen by either taking over Jubilee or by forming another party.
Biwott is being vindicated it was wrong for MOI and Ruto to support Uhuru as KANU chairman in 2003.

[RV Pundit]

So all scenarios have Raila as PORK backed by Uhuru.

You're more deluded than Kichwa Mbayas was.

First wait for 10 days - if we don't BBI 2.0 - but BBI 1.0 - meaning the executive PORK is retained as is - with fake PM - Raila has drunk water. He can choose to like 2010 to pretend like he has won but soon enough GEMA elite will show him the door.

Raila if he has brain left unlike you - should prep his ODM party to run again on solo - try to convince Joho and Oparanya to become his partners - and aim for I think anything about 25% in 2022.

It's obvious Kalonzo -Gideon- Uhuru stooge (could be Wa Iria or PK) - will run a horse that hopes to ride on Uhuru endorsement.Gideon bring zero votes. Kalonzo bring Kamba 8%.

Ruto like Raila comes with 25% core.

Now the issues is btw this Jubilee coalition - and Jubilee Asili - will GEMA listen to. It could go 50-50 if GEMA split. It could go 80-20. But because Kalonzo/Gideon start badly off with 10% - they are sunk before it starts.

For Ruto - his best bet is to get Kiunjuri or Kindiki as DPORK - try to get 80% of GEMA - and then have maDVD for PM top up the 20% - and he would go 50% on the first go. Ruto is also I hear in talks with Joho - and so Mijikenda if they dump Raila can also fill the void expected in GEMA stooge being backed by Uhuru.

For now - all of them need BBI 1.0.

Gideon and Kaloozer will not run alone- it why they are in Uhuru corner unlike Mdvd. Useless Gideon present value is appeasing Kalenjin along with Isaac, Kamar, Poghisio. This isolate Nandi and diminish chance of PEV2.

BBI remains big wild card but options remain.


1. BBI 2 parliamentary
Raila PORK + Uhuru PM vs Mdvd PORK + Ruto PM

2. BBI 1 fake PM
Raila PORK + Uhuru stooge (likely PK) + Giddy vs Ruto PORK + Mdvd VP + Kiunjuri PM

3. Status quo
Raila PORK + Uhuru stooge PK vs Ruto PORK + Mdvd or Kiunjuri DPORK

The status quo is complicated for Ruto cause entitled Mdvd is unlikely to want DPORK. Mt Kenya is gone yet it still very hard to nail Luhya without Mdvd as PORK. Railsa of course already has half Luhya and any "betrayal" of Mdvd like 2013 by Ruto will bag Raila big chunk. Luhya know Mdvd, Weta v are punda 2nd tier worse than Kalonzo.

Mt Kenya with Uhuru pulling the lever for Raila- give Raila headstart. All the tribal pouring of Mau Mau Rd and coffee goodies by Uhuru and Wagurugurus defection is big nightmare. Now if say Ruto pick Kiunjuri vs Raila-PK - he lose Luhya to Mdvd and Raila - and still only hope for a chunk of GEMA. If Ruto pick Mdvd vs Raila-PK - he lose GEMA - and Raila maintains his Luo+Mijikenda on top of GEMA.

Ruto best bet is eat humble pie - back Kiunjuri-Mdvd ticket   ... and become fake PM or Majority Leader. And back to square zero of MOUs and "numbers" with no real power.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Gideon and Kaloozer will not run alone- it why they are in Uhuru corner unlike Mdvd. Useless Gideon present value is appeasing Kalenjin along with Isaac, Kamar, Poghisio. This isolate Nandi and diminish chance of PEV2.

BBI remains big wild card but options remain.


1. BBI 2 parliamentary
Raila PORK + Uhuru PM vs Mdvd PORK + Ruto PM

2. BBI 1 fake PM
Raila PORK + Uhuru stooge (likely PK) + Giddy vs Ruto PORK + Mdvd VP + Kiunjuri PM

3. Status quo
Raila PORK + Uhuru stooge PK vs Ruto PORK + Mdvd or Kiunjuri DPORK

The status quo is complicated for Ruto cause entitled Mdvd is unlikely to want DPORK. Mt Kenya is gone yet it still very hard to nail Luhya without Mdvd as PORK. Railsa of course already has half Luhya and any "betrayal" of Mdvd like 2013 by Ruto will bag Raila big chunk. Luhya know Mdvd, Weta v are punda 2nd tier worse than Kalonzo.

Mt Kenya with Uhuru pulling the lever for Raila- give Raila headstart. All the tribal pouring of Mau Mau Rd and coffee goodies by Uhuru and Wagurugurus defection is big nightmare. Now if say Ruto pick Kiunjuri vs Raila-PK - he lose Luhya to Mdvd and Raila - and still only hope for a chunk of GEMA. If Ruto pick Mdvd vs Raila-PK - he lose GEMA - and Raila maintains his Luo+Mijikenda on top of GEMA.

Ruto best bet is eat humble pie - back Kiunjuri-Mdvd ticket   ... and become fake PM or Majority Leader. And back to square zero of MOUs and "numbers" with no real power.

You need counseling or head recalibrated. Wanjohi has succeeded making you smoke the bhangi he takes

[RV Pundit]

She is dealing with BBI 2.0 drinking the water. ODM are convinced that Uhuru is going to back Raila. They think Wanjohi had some Saul-paul moment. They literally want Uhuru to continue if it mean endorsing Raila.

But Wanjohi yesterday said - NOpe - I am not going to get into such mess - whose only beneficiary is Raila.

You need counseling or head recalibrated. Wanjohi has succeeded making you smoke the bhangi he takes

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru is President while your genius hero is VP on paper only. Raila de facto VP.

You fail to mention Uhuru has poor leadership skills.
Uhuru single handedly killed KANU by associating with Raila by the time he was realising  ODM was KANU incarnate. Right now he is on the verge of Killing Jubilee by association with Raila. For this reason I think Ruto wont let it happen by either taking over Jubilee or by forming another party.
Biwott is being vindicated it was wrong for MOI and Ruto to support Uhuru as KANU chairman in 2003.

[Nefertiti]

See you have a new hero called Kalonzo - who bring what 8% - so Uhuru will abandon Raila for Kalonzo-Giddy ticket It is your brain that is kaput. Of course once again you speak for GEMA future actions - ignoring the present reality of Uhuru goodies and defections via Capitol Hill. Let stick to reality not your IFs and BUTs which have been imploding on live TV.

I don't see Uhuru and Raila as interested in BBI 1 or even Ruto himself - cause it useless Duale or Matiang'i who can be fired any time. Uhuru-Raila want BBI 2 parliamentary - which you dismiss with zero evidence as usual. If we stick to status quo of NOW that you claim to recognize with one side of the mouth and spin future theories about GEMA on the other —

Raila and Mobutu are obviously going for PORK. Raila has half Luhya and Oparanyas so he doesn't need entitled Mdvd that bad. He settles for Uhuru stooge PK.
Ruto needs both GEMA and Luhya. If he picks Mdvd  vs Raila-PK - he lose GEMA. If he pick Kiunjuri he lose Luhya.

Kaloozer 8% will earn him only Majority Leader in either camp - and he can accept or sulk and run alone. Gideon will settle for anything - 2 CS - and bring zero on board.

So all scenarios have Raila as PORK backed by Uhuru.

You're more deluded than Kichwa Mbayas was.

First wait for 10 days - if we don't BBI 2.0 - but BBI 1.0 - meaning the executive PORK is retained as is - with fake PM - Raila has drunk water. He can choose to like 2010 to pretend like he has won but soon enough GEMA elite will show him the door.

Raila if he has brain left unlike you - should prep his ODM party to run again on solo - try to convince Joho and Oparanya to become his partners - and aim for I think anything about 25% in 2022.

It's obvious Kalonzo -Gideon- Uhuru stooge (could be Wa Iria or PK) - will run a horse that hopes to ride on Uhuru endorsement.Gideon bring zero votes. Kalonzo bring Kamba 8%.

Ruto like Raila comes with 25% core.

Now the issues is btw this Jubilee coalition - and Jubilee Asili - will GEMA listen to. It could go 50-50 if GEMA split. It could go 80-20. But because Kalonzo/Gideon start badly off with 10% - they are sunk before it starts.

For Ruto - his best bet is to get Kiunjuri or Kindiki as DPORK - try to get 80% of GEMA - and then have maDVD for PM top up the 20% - and he would go 50% on the first go. Ruto is also I hear in talks with Joho - and so Mijikenda if they dump Raila can also fill the void expected in GEMA stooge being backed by Uhuru.

For now - all of them need BBI 1.0.

[Nefertiti]

Ncheke and Pundit - you are riding on falsehood that Ruto on his own has a big following in non-GEMA to rival Raila - which is patently false. If we list the regional influencers - Ruto is all hat and no cattle. Are Duale and Nanok still with him? Of course you can whip up the crystal ball and claim Ruto has "ground" - which is unfounded nonsense. Ohoo he has ordered MPs to pamper Uhuru - Now Uhuru will back Kalonzo-Gideon ticket

Let stick to NOW - and even assume your BBI 2 dead wish is true - what is this scenario that has Ruto beating Raila without your delusions of GEMA or Uhuru dumping Raila? Pure theory not reality. For now all we can see is GEMA trooping back to Uhuru via Capitol Hill... and Mdvd-Weta warming to Ruto while denying it.

I wonder why Mdvd-Weta vehemently distance themselves from Ruto 

[RV Pundit]

Simple questions. Why would Uhuru or his people dump Raila for Ruto? It doesn't make sense. If they fear Ruto; they fear Raila more.

Kalonzo has moved with Gideon to Jubilee with Uhuru. That is reality as of today.  What we know so far is Gideon, Kalonzo and Wa Iria are in some plan led by Murathe and possibly the Uhuru family. This is the current hare-brain plan. Obviously Kalonzo or Gideon has no time for Raila but wants GEMA for themselves.

Raila is on ODM and we heard he has abandoned BBI 2.0 - and now want BBI 1.0. We will find out 10 days considering the BBI mandate ends June 30th.

Ruto gameplan will include GEMA as Key Partner - at worst Ruto will go for kikuyu diaspora and Mt Kenya east if Uhuru prove to be tough in Central. But Ruto is likely to take most of central. He just need a DPORK from there - who can rally the troops.

MaDVD or any other such players will come fill up the numbers. Ruto is interested in Western and Coast for the top ups of any GEMA that may drop to the Jubilee statehouse project.

As for Raila faking it till he makes it Uhuru is using his parliamentary majority and eventually, he will be left high and dry.

See you have a new hero called Kalonzo - who bring what 8% - so Uhuru will abandon Raila for Kalonzo-Giddy ticket It is your brain that is kaput. Of course once again you speak for GEMA future actions - ignoring the present reality of Uhuru goodies and defections via Capitol Hill. Let stick to reality not your IFs and BUTs which have been imploding on live TV.

I don't see Uhuru and Raila as interested in BBI 1 or even Ruto himself - cause it useless Duale or Matiang'i who can be fired any time. Uhuru-Raila want BBI 2 parliamentary - which you dismiss with zero evidence as usual. If we stick to status quo of NOW that you claim to recognize with one side of the mouth and spin future theories about GEMA on the other —

Raila and Mobutu are obviously going for PORK. Raila has half Luhya and Oparanyas so he doesn't need entitled Mdvd that bad. He settles for Uhuru stooge PK.
Ruto needs both GEMA and Luhya. If he picks Mdvd  vs Raila-PK - he lose GEMA. If he pick Kiunjuri he lose Luhya.

Kaloozer 8% will earn him only Majority Leader in either camp - and he can accept or sulk and run alone. Gideon will settle for anything - 2 CS - and bring zero on board.

So all scenarios have Raila as PORK backed by Uhuru.

You're more deluded than Kichwa Mbayas was.

First wait for 10 days - if we don't BBI 2.0 - but BBI 1.0 - meaning the executive PORK is retained as is - with fake PM - Raila has drunk water. He can choose to like 2010 to pretend like he has won but soon enough GEMA elite will show him the door.

Raila if he has brain left unlike you - should prep his ODM party to run again on solo - try to convince Joho and Oparanya to become his partners - and aim for I think anything about 25% in 2022.

It's obvious Kalonzo -Gideon- Uhuru stooge (could be Wa Iria or PK) - will run a horse that hopes to ride on Uhuru endorsement.Gideon bring zero votes. Kalonzo bring Kamba 8%.

Ruto like Raila comes with 25% core.

Now the issues is btw this Jubilee coalition - and Jubilee Asili - will GEMA listen to. It could go 50-50 if GEMA split. It could go 80-20. But because Kalonzo/Gideon start badly off with 10% - they are sunk before it starts.

For Ruto - his best bet is to get Kiunjuri or Kindiki as DPORK - try to get 80% of GEMA - and then have maDVD for PM top up the 20% - and he would go 50% on the first go. Ruto is also I hear in talks with Joho - and so Mijikenda if they dump Raila can also fill the void expected in GEMA stooge being backed by Uhuru.

For now - all of them need BBI 1.0.

[RV Pundit]

You're going too fast, Robina. Ruto has national support - and will beat Raila in Non-GEMA. If you exclude GEMA and Gusii in Jubilee - the rest are in Jubilee courtesy of Ruto.

The last opinion poll had Ruto at 40% - and Raila at 15%.

Now try to paint with broad brushes. 2022 is still 2yrs away.

Ncheke and Pundit - you are riding on falsehood that Ruto on his own has a big following in non-GEMA to rival Raila - which is patently false. If we list the regional influencers - Ruto is all hat and no cattle. Are Duale and Nanok still with him? Of course you can whip up the crystal ball and claim Ruto has "ground" - which is unfounded nonsense. Ohoo he has ordered MPs to pamper Uhuru - Now Uhuru will back Kalonzo-Gideon ticket

Let stick to NOW - and even assume your BBI 2 dead wish is true - what is this scenario that has Ruto beating Raila without your delusions of GEMA or Uhuru dumping Raila? Pure theory not reality. For now all we can see is GEMA trooping back to Uhuru via Capitol Hill... and Mdvd-Weta warming to Ruto while denying it.

I wonder why Mdvd-Weta vehemently distance themselves from Ruto 

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina the main problem with you is you counting chicks before they hatch, you are in a pyramid scheme and calculating your returns when your turn come around but unfortunately the pyramid scheme collapses just as you were about to cash out. You have now stopped actively campaigning and assumed the addict bhang smoker will deliver the Presidency to raira on a silver platter. Where in the world does that happen? Lets talk NOW as you fond off, so you expect kalonzo joined Jubilee so that Uhuru can tosha him to deputize baba which he has done for 2 times? You expect the zeal kalonzo has is for him to become deputy president again.. Please take time to relax your otherwise energetic brain is getting clogged fast. Oriti!
Again you dismiss the fact that Ruto has majority support over wanjohi in mt. Kenya read again mt. Kenya yes, apart from kenyanplato who supports baba though he is unpredictable other GEMA in nipate are for Ruto, use this sample to tell you even on ground Ruto commands over 80%GEMA.

[RV Pundit]

You nailed it.2017 they had one bullet they fired it. When Maraga annualed election - they had nothing left on the barrel. Now they are hoping Uhuru will lend them a bullet while Uhuru himself has to retire.

Raila run away from NASA - hoping he will escape Kalonzo and maDVD - while he was dillydallying - Kalonzo has now overtaken him and gone straight into Jubilee with both legs.

ODM brigade now are now confused lot.  The BBI drama they had caused has come to nought. They don't want it no more.

They can enter Jubilee - and Raila will be appointed one of Jubilee deputy party leader - Jubilee will have maybe 4 - like MOi's KANU  - and wait again for TOSHA moment.

Robina the main problem with you is you counting chicks before they hatch, you are in a pyramid scheme and calculating your returns when your turn come around but unfortunately the pyramid scheme collapses just as you were about to cash out. You have now stopped actively campaigning and assumed the addict bhang smoker will deliver the Presidency to raira on a silver platter. Where in the world does that happen? Lets talk NOW as you fond off, so you expect kalonzo joined Jubilee so that Uhuru can tosha him to deputize baba which he has done for 2 times? You expect the zeal kalonzo has is for him to become deputy president again.. Please take time to relax your otherwise energetic brain is getting clogged fast. Oriti!
Again you dismiss the fact that Ruto has majority support over wanjohi in mt. Kenya read again mt. Kenya yes, apart from kenyanplato who supports baba though he is unpredictable other GEMA in nipate are for Ruto, use this sample to tell you even on ground Ruto commands over 80%GEMA.

[Nowayhaha]

I dont understand you guys why you think Uhuru is a factor in 2022 elections. No one requires his endorsment to win Mt Kenya votes. Same like in 2013 when Uhuru didnt require Kibaki to win Mt Kenya votes.
Its really how the politician positions himself and most importantly a poltician perceiver to take on Raila heads on. The currently elected MPs wspecially In Central wont make it back so the so called affilitions wont matter .They didnt matter in 2013, they didnt matter in 2002 what will matter is the party the Mt Kenya prefered candidate will run on , in 2002 it was Ngilus NARC party in 2013 it was a washed up party known as TNA.

Uhuru will not be a factor in 2022 and by then few would want to be associated with him.

[RV Pundit]

It depends on Uhuru. He could quietly retire like Kibaki did and try to influence things from background like Prof Nick Wanjohi did with UDF - a hair brain idea - which failed when Uhuru told maDVD to go jump. Or he could do a Moi - and try to forcefully influence his succession. I think he learned a bitter lesson from Moi.

My bet is he will quietly retire leaving folks to tear themselves apart. It's already bad enough for him - he has to threaten, cajole and name it Mps - and yet his own Mp Moses Kuria doesn't even respect him - and now with Jubilee being torn asunder - his legacy as uniter is going down the drain - and he might be busy at ICC in 2023 instead of overseeing the laundering of corruption proceeds and building Northland city.

That won't stop many Uhuru orphans who are now powerful from trying to influence things so they can stay around.

I dont understand you guys why you think Uhuru is a factor in 2022 elections. No one requires his endorsment to win Mt Kenya votes. Same like in 2013 when Uhuru didnt require Kibaki to win Mt Kenya votes.
Its really how the politician positions himself and most importantly a poltician perceiver to take on Raila heads on. The currently elected MPs wspecially In Central wont make it back so the so called affilitions wont matter .They didnt matter in 2013, they didnt matter in 2002 what will matter is the party the Mt Kenya prefered candidate will run on , in 2002 it was Ngilus NARC party in 2013 it was a washed up party known as TNA.

Uhuru will not be a factor in 2022 and by then few would want to be associated with him.

[KenyanPlato]

How many threads does savant need to open to try to make point that is not there

[Nefertiti]

At least your toning down your 50 shades of NOW - but you still have a few mixed versions of reality.


GEMA or Uhuru are not scared of Ruto or Raila - anymore than Kalenjin fear Raila. That was political propaganda by Kibaki et al to malign Raila. Today it is Ruto being maligned as a thief, greedy, disrespectful, condescending. They are saving Kiambaa Nazi gas chambers for later. Ruto is not immune from demonization.

Hawamwogopi Bwana Ruto - wanamdharau. Uhuru-GEMA interests are simply not aligned with Ruto's at the moment. Attempting to usurp Uhuru backyard was very stupid.

Simple questions. Why would Uhuru or his people dump Raila for Ruto? It doesn't make sense. If they fear Ruto; they fear Raila more.

Kalonzo, Gideon, Isaac want small crumbs in GNU - Raila Handshake slayed impetuous Ruto so he gets the fat reward - 2022 support. Kaloozer was backing Mariga and fence-sitting as recently as last year. Kalonzo 8% entitles him to nothing but Majority Leader or Speaker or few CS - that reality fail to penetrate his thick skull. For Raila to back him - he would need to first back Raila 4 times - so the math can balance.

Kalonzo has moved with Gideon to Jubilee with Uhuru. That is reality as of today.  What we know so far is Gideon, Kalonzo and Wa Iria are in some plan led by Murathe and possibly the Uhuru family. This is the current hare-brain plan. Obviously Kalonzo or Gideon has no time for Raila but wants GEMA for themselves.

You heard this where again? - right about when you heard Uhuru is playing Raila Let us know when it is at least verifiable.

Raila is on ODM and we heard he has abandoned BBI 2.0 - and now want BBI 1.0. We will find out 10 days considering the BBI mandate ends June 30th.

The news show him meeting Luhyas - as Mdvd-Weta distance themselves. It still a bad omen to back Ruto in Western - so Mdvd insist he is looking for Ruto or others to back him. Haha. Anyone spotted Kiunjuri recenty? The man is MIA. Maybe Ruto will run with Karua? Like of PK are angling to be Uhuru stooge.

Ruto gameplan will include GEMA as Key Partner - at worst Ruto will go for kikuyu diaspora and Mt Kenya east if Uhuru prove to be tough in Central. But Ruto is likely to take most of central. He just need a DPORK from there - who can rally the troops.

Let worry about the tickets. PORK-VP - rest are ifs and buts. Ruto vs Raila - Mdvds, Katikatis, Johos are top ups. We know who has which influencers as of today. You can theorize abut Joho backing Ruto but what we know is Ruto has Jicho Pevu, Jumwa, Mwashetani. Raila has Joho, Kingi, Samboja, Mng'aro and the shebang.

MaDVD or any other such players will come fill up the numbers. Ruto is interested in Western and Coast for the top ups of any GEMA that may drop to the Jubilee statehouse project.

Hope spring eternal brother. Let see how many folks - esp GEMA - join Tangatanga Asili Party.

As for Raila faking it till he makes it Uhuru is using his parliamentary majority and eventually, he will be left high and dry.

[RV Pundit]

Okay what would be Raila Plan B incase Uhuru doesn't back him.

Make it very short.

At least your toning down your 50 shades of NOW - but you still have a few mixed versions of reality.


GEMA or Uhuru are not scared of Ruto or Raila - anymore than Kalenjin fear Raila. That was political propaganda by Kibaki et al to malign Raila. Today it is Ruto being maligned as a thief, greedy, disrespectful, condescending. They are saving Kiambaa Nazi gas chambers for later. Ruto is not immune from demonization.

Hawamwogopi Bwana Ruto - wanamdharau. Uhuru-GEMA interests are simply not aligned with Ruto's at the moment. Attempting to usurp Uhuru backyard was very stupid.

Simple questions. Why would Uhuru or his people dump Raila for Ruto? It doesn't make sense. If they fear Ruto; they fear Raila more.

Kalonzo, Gideon, Isaac want small crumbs in GNU - Raila Handshake slayed impetuous Ruto so he gets the fat reward - 2022 support. Kaloozer was backing Mariga and fence-sitting as recently as last year. Kalonzo 8% entitles him to nothing but Majority Leader or Speaker or few CS - that reality fail to penetrate his thick skull. For Raila to back him - he would need to first back Raila 4 times - so the math can balance.

Kalonzo has moved with Gideon to Jubilee with Uhuru. That is reality as of today.  What we know so far is Gideon, Kalonzo and Wa Iria are in some plan led by Murathe and possibly the Uhuru family. This is the current hare-brain plan. Obviously Kalonzo or Gideon has no time for Raila but wants GEMA for themselves.

You heard this where again? - right about when you heard Uhuru is playing Raila Let us know when it is at least verifiable.

Raila is on ODM and we heard he has abandoned BBI 2.0 - and now want BBI 1.0. We will find out 10 days considering the BBI mandate ends June 30th.

The news show him meeting Luhyas - as Mdvd-Weta distance themselves. It still a bad omen to back Ruto in Western - so Mdvd insist he is looking for Ruto or others to back him. Haha. Anyone spotted Kiunjuri recenty? The man is MIA. Maybe Ruto will run with Karua? Like of PK are angling to be Uhuru stooge.

Ruto gameplan will include GEMA as Key Partner - at worst Ruto will go for kikuyu diaspora and Mt Kenya east if Uhuru prove to be tough in Central. But Ruto is likely to take most of central. He just need a DPORK from there - who can rally the troops.

Let worry about the tickets. PORK-VP - rest are ifs and buts. Ruto vs Raila - Mdvds, Katikatis, Johos are top ups. We know who has which influencers as of today. You can theorize abut Joho backing Uhuru but what we know is Ruto has Jicho Pevu, Jumwa, Mwashetani. Raila has Joho, Kingi, Samboja, Mng'aro and the shebang.

MaDVD or any other such players will come fill up the numbers. Ruto is interested in Western and Coast for the top ups of any GEMA that may drop to the Jubilee statehouse project.

Hope spring eternal brother. Let see how many folks - esp GEMA - join Tangatanga Asili Party.

As for Raila faking it till he makes it Uhuru is using his parliamentary majority and eventually, he will be left high and dry.

[Nefertiti]

Why plan B?

Raila-Uhuru NEED BBI2 - cause greedy Kenyatta want Exec PM - Raila is on the clock and is okay with ceremonial PORK with some DPM, CS, etc power-sharing. You can dismiss BBI2 but there are in fact some wazee minting fat per diem to "compile" BBI2. Uhuru has lined up parliament and chokehold on Jubilee - signal he is going nowhere. You think so he can eat alone or back Kaloozer

If we stick to status quo - Uhuru cannot vie so he would back someone. It a big leap of faith delusion to claim it will be Kaloozer-Giddy - that 8.5% flat Uhuru betrayal of Raila is merely your wish - as of now the big betrayal is Ruto who definitely had it coming. GEMA of course have never backed Kalenjin and Ruto "ground" is just another Pundit pipe-dream.

Okay what would be Raila Plan B incase Uhuru doesn't back him.

Make it very short.