Will Uhuru with KANU manage to overthrow Duale and Washiali?

[RV Pundit]

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PART IV—THE LEADER OF THE MAJORITY PARTY
AND THE LEADER OF THE MINORITY PARTY
Leader of the Majority Party and Deputy Leader of
the Majority Party
19. (1) The largest party or coalition of parties in the
National Assembly shall elect—
(a) a member of the National Assembly
belonging to the party or coalition of parties
to be the Leader of the Majority Party;
(b) a member of the National Assembly
belonging to the party or coalition of parties
to be the Deputy Leader of the Majority
Party.
(2) In electing members under paragraph (1), the
largest party or coalition of parties in the
National Assembly shall take into account—
(a) any existing coalition agreement entered
into pursuant to the Political Parties Act;
(b) the need for gender balance
(3) A member elected under paragraph (2) may
be removed by a majority of votes of all
members of the largest party or coalition of
parties in the National Assembly.
(4) The whip of the largest party or coalition of
parties in the National Assembly shall forthwith,
upon a decision being made under this Standing
Order, communicate to the Speaker, in writing
the decision together with the minutes of the
meeting at which the decision was made

[RV Pundit]

This one is a little difficult. There are only 12 nominated Mps. Maybe Uhuru will gather all independent MPs? KANU? sign up coalition with ODM?

Kieleweke wing of Uhuru I think at best can raise 30-40mps against Ruto's 130-140mps.

[RV Pundit]

But they have Speaker Muturi - to do legal gymnastics - and probably execute another affront of our nascent democracy?

[RV Pundit]

So look likely they will have NMC endorse a new coalition with ODM and Wiper to try to shore up the numbers.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-05-26-eyes-on-ruto-as-uhuru-convenes-top-jubilee-meeting/

Now we will have situation where both Majority and Minority whip belong to the same coalition.

[Njuri Ncheke]

So look likely they will have NMC endorse a new coalition with ODM and Wiper to try to shore up the numbers.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-05-26-eyes-on-ruto-as-uhuru-convenes-top-jubilee-meeting/

Now we will have situation where both Majority and Minority whip belong to the same coalition.

Are they not afraid of losing N.E Somali vote. By removing Duale

[Nefertiti]

How many phantom senators did Ruto have...? Kindiki vote was 54-7 dog beating. That 44 already if you remove the 10 Jubilee nominated. And obviously not all nominated senators/MPs back Ruto.

Duale is not speaker so it mere 50% Jubilee MPs at PG. Ruto phantom numbers are about to be exposed again. That huge mob at Naivasha retreat - or protest letters to party registrar - is unverified nonsense. When tyre meets the road very few MPs will hang for Ruto in the slightest. With all the legal cover all the way to SCORK - it buffling how fast Milly Omangas dumped hustler without second thought. These "leaders" are turncoats and mercenaries - JUDASES - banking on them against PORK is just comical.

The argument that MPs are many so harder to intimidate is illogical... that an experiment you need to wait and see.

This one is a little difficult. There are only 12 nominated Mps. Maybe Uhuru will gather all independent MPs? KANU? sign up coalition with ODM?

Kieleweke wing of Uhuru I think at best can raise 30-40mps against Ruto's 130-140mps.

[RV Pundit]

But why is Uhuru signing coalitions left right and center if Ruto was that weak.

How many phantom senators did Ruto have...? Kindiki vote was 54-7 dog beating. That 44 already if you remove the 10 Jubilee nominated. And obviously not all nominated senators/MPs back Ruto.

Duale is not speaker so it mere 50% Jubilee MPs at PG. Ruto phantom numbers are about to be exposed again. That huge mob at Naivasha retreat - or protest letters to party registrar - is unverified nonsense. When tyre meets the road very few MPs will hang for Ruto in the slightest. With all the legal cover all the way to SCORK - it buffling how fast Milly Omangas dumped hustler without second thought. These "leaders" are turncoats and mercenaries - JUDASES - banking on them against PORK is just comical.

The argument that MPs are many so harder to intimidate is illogical... that an experiment you need to wait and see.

This one is a little difficult. There are only 12 nominated Mps. Maybe Uhuru will gather all independent MPs? KANU? sign up coalition with ODM?

Kieleweke wing of Uhuru I think at best can raise 30-40mps against Ruto's 130-140mps.

[Nefertiti]

First, I don't buy Ruto's 130-140 MPs 70% JP magic number. There are maybe 10% Ruto diehards in Jubilee. The bulk are passive supporters and fence-sitters who will not break sweat when Jezebel call them. It easier to tout numbers when there is nothing to lose.

Second, don't expect Uhuru to play fair. There is COVID - so numbers can be manufactured bila wasi wasi. Like someone asked, what make you think the senators didn't attend Uhuru PG by Zoom? You go to court today - and it impossible to prove quorum hitch. With Muturi expect ukora... as protests and court orders are ignored.

So look likely they will have NMC endorse a new coalition with ODM and Wiper to try to shore up the numbers.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-05-26-eyes-on-ruto-as-uhuru-convenes-top-jubilee-meeting/

Now we will have situation where both Majority and Minority whip belong to the same coalition.

[Kadudu]

Nduare is going nowhere. Have you ever heard him speak even one word against Uhuru? The last fight between Duale and Murkomen was not about national parliament vs the senate, but a fight for the direction in which the URP wing of Jubilee should take in the height of siege mentality in the Ruto camp.
Somalis are known to always side with the present government. They know the stake they even hold in the present government is more than their share of the national cake. Are they ready to take a risk and abondon that? My guess is no. Somalis will sit on the fence till the dice is cast.

Are they not afraid of losing N.E Somali vote. By removing Duale

[Nefertiti]

Jubilee was core TNA-URP coalition. Fallout means Ruto 50% has to be replaced. Nothing complicated - it just about numbers in parliament.

Second, Ruto is greedy and wants 100% PORK. So he usurp GEMA and talk about MOU I don't know if you are willfully ignorant - but saying someone with direct support can share power is just so gullible. If Ruto guaranteed 50-50 - with PM or such not piece of paper or "trustworthy" voodoo - I doubt he would be haunted as is happening now.

Ruto is formidable but not unbeatable. I know it hard for you to be objective but Ruto is not even Raila level.

But why is Uhuru signing coalitions left right and center if Ruto was that weak.

How many phantom senators did Ruto have...? Kindiki vote was 54-7 dog beating. That 44 already if you remove the 10 Jubilee nominated. And obviously not all nominated senators/MPs back Ruto.

Duale is not speaker so it mere 50% Jubilee MPs at PG. Ruto phantom numbers are about to be exposed again. That huge mob at Naivasha retreat - or protest letters to party registrar - is unverified nonsense. When tyre meets the road very few MPs will hang for Ruto in the slightest. With all the legal cover all the way to SCORK - it buffling how fast Milly Omangas dumped hustler without second thought. These "leaders" are turncoats and mercenaries - JUDASES - banking on them against PORK is just comical.

The argument that MPs are many so harder to intimidate is illogical... that an experiment you need to wait and see.

This one is a little difficult. There are only 12 nominated Mps. Maybe Uhuru will gather all independent MPs? KANU? sign up coalition with ODM?

Kieleweke wing of Uhuru I think at best can raise 30-40mps against Ruto's 130-140mps.

[Kadudu]

They have done it before (remember the security laws?) and you cheered them on. Wembe ni ule ule.
Next time stick to the side of the law and not cheer any group that uses illegal tactics to achieve its goals just because you side with the group.

But they have Speaker Muturi - to do legal gymnastics - and probably execute another affront of our nascent democracy?

[Garliv]

My opinion is that Ruto and his group (whether big or small) should not resist anything. If it's Duale Uhuru wants out, let it be. I honestly don't see what is to fight for. If they resist, then they paint themselves as "those frustrating or competing with the President.." BY resisting they FORMALLY VALIDATE Uhuru's claim of being "undermined by the DP.." So no need to struggle on it.
Second, even if Duale and Washiali remains, then they cannot RESIST ANY BILL/MOTION that Uhuru seeks. Doing so now would even be worse. So let Uhuru have his way...

Finally, the die is cast. On authority of some MP the message they get from Security is "mjaribu kuaibisha Rais..." Most of MPs have so much skeletons and also very few have balls; especially now Executive is on the rampage.

 

[Nefertiti]

RV Pundit and Njuri just discovered the machinery and PORK's coercive power. They are actually shocked that MPs can be intimidated. In the past it was just Kibicho being michievous.

They have done it before (remember the security laws?) and you cheered them on. Wembe ni ule ule.
Next time stick to the side of the law and not cheer any group that uses illegal tactics to achieve its goals just because you side with the group.

But they have Speaker Muturi - to do legal gymnastics - and probably execute another affront of our nascent democracy?

[RV Pundit]

You're confusing me more. So Ruto is weak. Ruto is formidable. Yes I agree that the GEMA elite would love to remain as political brokers for their people - but it's really not Ruto fault - that they are at variance with their own people.

Shaking Raila hands and selling BBI is what killed Uhuru's popularity in not only GEMA but the entire Jubileeland.

It's really got nothing to do with Ruto.

Because the current GEMA elite do not want to heed the warning signs from their own people - and are trying to use force in 21st century - what I predict will happen is simple Kalenjin like the rejection of elite - and the rise of new elite.

That is how Kalenjin ended up with Mps who are barely out of their teens, governors in early 30s and Senate in their 20s. It was the total rejection of Moi and his moneyed elite. Moi had managed to build an political, business and military-security elite that had become insular and so proud they toyed with people left right and center.

This is exactly what is happening in GEMA. If this continues - expect to see even Njuri Ncheke here being governor of Meru - the
results will be shocking.

You cannot take madharau to the people on the ground.  Eti deep state will rig it. You'll get 2 votes - impossible to rig. Now compound it with fact that Uhuru is now relying basically on 1) People rejected in 2017 election in Jubilee zones and 2) Jubilee enemies that people voted, campaigned and some probably died for. It's the ultimate betrayal of people.

If I was a smart Mt Kenya politician - I would take the war to Uhuru like Moses Kuria is doing - and reap big reward.

Jubilee was core TNA-URP coalition. Fallout means Ruto 50% has to be replaced. Nothing complicated - it just about numbers in parliament.

Second, Ruto is greedy and wants 100% PORK. So he usurp GEMA and talk about MOU I don't know if you are willfully ignorant - but saying someone with direct support can share power is just so gullible. If Ruto guaranteed 50-50 - with PM or such not piece of paper or "trustworthy" voodoo - I doubt he would be haunted as is happening now.

Ruto is formidable but not unbeatable. I know it hard for you to be objective but Ruto is not even Raila level.

[RV Pundit]

Agreed.But don't make it so easy for Uhuru. He has to do the firing. So don't resign but don't fight. Let him fire, humiliate and harass Jubilee Mps...and let him have his way...so he cannot come back and claim he failed because he didn't get support. Right now all his claims rig hollow because no senate or parliament bill from gov has been defeated.

But eventually as we approach 2022 - and with ODM inside the tent - Jubilee MPs will have to hang both Uhuru and Raila together.

So let them go inside first....so they can reap the blame and the largesse of course.

My opinion is that Ruto and his group (whether big or small) should not resist anything. If it's Duale Uhuru wants out, let it be. I honestly don't see what is to fight for. If they resist, then they paint themselves as "those frustrating or competing with the President.." BY resisting they FORMALLY VALIDATE Uhuru's claim of being "undermined by the DP.." So no need to struggle on it.
Second, even if Duale and Washiali remains, then they cannot RESIST ANY BILL/MOTION that Uhuru seeks. Doing so now would even be worse. So let Uhuru have his way...

Finally, the die is cast. On authority of some MP the message they get from Security is "mjaribu kuaibisha Rais..." Most of MPs have so much skeletons and also very few have balls; especially now Executive is on the rampage.

 

[Garliv]

Red line: Ruto doesn't resign. He stays put.
Second, in case they try Impeachment THEN and only then does his support of Mps/Senators rise up and say no. Now that would be nuclear option. And chip fall where they may.

Agreed.But don't make it so easy for Uhuru. He has to do the firing. So don't resign but don't fight. Let him fire, humiliate and harass Jubilee Mps...and let him have his way...so he cannot come back and claim he failed because he didn't get support. Right now all his claims rig hollow because no senate or parliament bill from gov has been defeated.

But eventually as we approach 2022 - and with ODM inside the tent - Jubilee MPs will have to hang both Uhuru and Raila together.

[RV Pundit]

The only benefit of DPORK is if Uhuru was to die mid-way. And perhaps to stop Uhuru from appointing Gideon Moi. Other than that - Ruto is essentially fired. But because COVID-19 could take Uhuru or anybody else - it's worth fighting for it.

Red line: Ruto doesn't resign. He stays put.
Second, in case they try Impeachment THEN and only then does his support of Mps/Senators rise up and say no. Now that would be nuclear option. And chip fall where they may.

[Garliv]

Once he resigns, the system (Uhuru/Raila) will go after him like nothing. At least as DP there is that hesitation because of the OFFICE.  And we are dealing with people who have no sense of proportion here. Raila/Uhuru have joined together to produce terrible madness. They don't even have finesse.

Please understand, MAJOR ISSUE WITH RUTO IS THAT HE'S A THREAT TO UHURU/RAILA SCHEMES. That threat will NOT end with Ruto resigning; if anything it will be worse because Ruto will feel he's now FREE to go around as "jamaa ya kawaida..." And if his popularity still holds, then these guys will find it easy to do whatever they plan. You know if he resigns he probably won't last a month before he is arrested for so real and imagined corruption. Let them sweat it out when he's DP....

Finally because of well known health issues of someone which reportedly keep getting worse and worse, he should stay put.

NB: I know it is maybe pointless to say this, but Uhuru has been behaving unconstitutionally when he does not engage his DP. He's Principal Assistant to the President and he should be deputizing President when need arise. Huku Uhuru keep "sending" Raila to hold brief here and there is purely illegal. DP is a crucial office; so he shouldn't resign.

The only benefit of DPORK is if Uhuru was to die mid-way. And perhaps to stop Uhuru from appointing Gideon Moi. Other than that - Ruto is essentially fired. But because COVID-19 could take Uhuru or anybody else - it's worth fighting for it.

Red line: Ruto doesn't resign. He stays put.
Second, in case they try Impeachment THEN and only then does his support of Mps/Senators rise up and say no. Now that would be nuclear option. And chip fall where they may.

[KenyanPlato]

Ruto will finally impeached and possibly harassed by EACC for the rest of Uhuru term

[patel]

Baghdad bob does not get it neither does that midget called Garliv....its game over. How does Ruto pull the nuclear option without Senate and parliament cover. The best option is to start working out exit strategy and safe passage/landing. Plan to fight another day.  Ruto has boxed himself in a corner. It's ok to throw in the towel, save more body damage and live to fight another day.

How many phantom senators did Ruto have...? Kindiki vote was 54-7 dog beating. That 44 already if you remove the 10 Jubilee nominated. And obviously not all nominated senators/MPs back Ruto.

Duale is not speaker so it mere 50% Jubilee MPs at PG. Ruto phantom numbers are about to be exposed again. That huge mob at Naivasha retreat - or protest letters to party registrar - is unverified nonsense. When tyre meets the road very few MPs will hang for Ruto in the slightest. With all the legal cover all the way to SCORK - it buffling how fast Milly Omangas dumped hustler without second thought. These "leaders" are turncoats and mercenaries - JUDASES - banking on them against PORK is just comical.

The argument that MPs are many so harder to intimidate is illogical... that an experiment you need to wait and see.

This one is a little difficult. There are only 12 nominated Mps. Maybe Uhuru will gather all independent MPs? KANU? sign up coalition with ODM?

Kieleweke wing of Uhuru I think at best can raise 30-40mps against Ruto's 130-140mps.

quote author=Robina link=topic=8364.msg74162#msg74162 date=1590483354]
How many phantom senators did Ruto have...? Kindiki vote was 54-7 dog beating. That 44 already if you remove the 10 Jubilee nominated. And obviously not all nominated senators/MPs back Ruto.

Duale is not speaker so it mere 50% Jubilee MPs at PG. Ruto phantom numbers are about to be exposed again. That huge mob at Naivasha retreat - or protest letters to party registrar - is unverified nonsense. When tyre meets the road very few MPs will hang for Ruto in the slightest. With all the legal cover all the way to SCORK - it buffling how fast Milly Omangas dumped hustler without second thought. These "leaders" are turncoats and mercenaries - JUDASES - banking on them against PORK is just comical.

The argument that MPs are many so harder to intimidate is illogical... that an experiment you need to wait and see.

This one is a little difficult. There are only 12 nominated Mps. Maybe Uhuru will gather all independent MPs? KANU? sign up coalition with ODM?

Kieleweke wing of Uhuru I think at best can raise 30-40mps against Ruto's 130-140mps.

[/quote]