In the end it all comes up to who controls the counting of votes at IEBC. Ruto will need to get over 60% of the votes for him to be able to block any attempt of rigging. Will he manage to achieve this without getting a majority in Nairobi, Western and Coast?
Also it should be clear to Ruto, that the Kikuyus will not be ready to go through fire to defend his "stolen" election. Even in 2007 many Kikuyus were ready to live under the the then inevitable Raila presidency before Kibaki stole the election. Kikuyus are very pragmatic and they will tell Ruto they tried their best, but the regime won.
So Tangatanga brigade should be ready to face big resistance from the State machinery. Guys help build an intransparent regime believing it will always serve their interests. As they say, wembe ni ule ule.