Raila at 75

[KenyanPlato]

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If dude is elected at 77 he will leave office at 82 years or 87 years if he wins 2nd term. That is old as fuck. I cant imagine my dad who is 83 years being a president. Raila should hope he can squeeze 2 years into his term without being senile

[Njuri Ncheke]

There is a new version gaining traction in social media ati the hatred wanjohi has for Ruto could be personal possibly Ruto munched you knw who  . Thats why wanjohi now trusts octogenarian like Raira and Awolis and dislikes hustlers

[Nefertiti]

The age keeps Raila in check not to mess it with Uhuru. Cause he has one shot to fulfill Jaramogi’s dream. Making demands like Ruto is Tangatanga’s self- serving advice. This why he is a safer bet than young hound Ruto. It’s actually a pro not a con.

[Kadudu]

Age is nothing, but a number. How old was Johnstone Kamau when he first got elected PM of Kenya?

[RV Pundit]

hahaha. Lol. I think the beef ni kiburi tu. Oscar sudi was in Kass fm - and he was saying when he called first PG - long before his election was annulled - he was full of kiburi talking about "my government" . Basically he knows he is not going for any stupid election again and is acting with don't care attitude.

There is a new version gaining traction in social media ati the hatred wanjohi has for Ruto could be personal possibly Ruto munched you knw who  . Thats why wanjohi now trusts octogenarian like Raira and Awolis and dislikes hustlers

[RV Pundit]

Will he survive Corona - that age and diabetes. He really needs to stay at HOME.

[RV Pundit]

You make it sound like Uhuru is now the Queen of England - and Raila will be acting all his life to please him. I know it desperation to convince GEMA that Raila is good people - but don't overdo it. The trust deficit Raila has is huge.

The age keeps Raila in check not to mess it with Uhuru. Cause he has one shot to fulfill Jaramogi’s dream. Making demands like Ruto is Tangatanga’s self- serving advice. This why he is a safer bet than young hound Ruto. It’s actually a pro not a con.

[KenyanPlato]

Raila wont be able to win 15 percent of kikuyu vote to be elected. He needs to fund a dynamic kikuyu to run as his dp or he can make a deal with ruto and be his dp

[Njuri Ncheke]

Raila wont be able to win 15 percent of kikuyu vote to be elected. He needs to fund a dynamic kikuyu to run as his dp or he can make a deal with ruto and be his dp

This now would pose a risk to Ruto. Raira could pick Mutahi kagwe or another popular figure. This i think is most likely scenario.

[Kadudu]

Unlike Ruto, Raila does not need to even run for that election. He can mess up for Ruto completely by tosharing someone else. Even if he runs he does not need to have a Mt Kenya DP. Ruto has no other choice. If he fails to name a Kikuyu, a big chunk will run away from him. Their support for him is not because they hate Uhuru or love Ruto so much, but believe after Ruto it is another 10-20 years for them. Also we will see how the Merus and Embus will react to Ruto's DP coming from Kikuyuland.

This now would pose a risk to Ruto. Raira could pick Mutahi kagwe or another popular figure. This i think is most likely scenario.

[RV Pundit]

You overrate Raila and ODM. You're lumping NASA and CORD coalition as NASA - ignoring the role of Kalonzo and MaDVD in Raila's 45% - Raila has scored around 45% the last few elections in coalition with Luos, luhya, Kamba
and or Kalenjin.

Right now ODM have 62mps out of 290mps - so if parliamentary strength is an indicator of real ODM strength outside NASA - then Raila has 21% support base.

Jubilee won 140 out 290msp - and if we assume Ruto and Uhuru had equal share - then we are talking them controlling 25% each directly - obviously Uhuru is the past and Ruto is the future.

For Raila to win kenya election - he need 50% - from 20% - not from 45% (unless he was to retain NASA coalition ).

Ruto without Uhuru can easily start at 30% - and just need 20% to win it.

Which is why for Raila it's important to expand the Pie - and have PM, Deputy Pms and all sort of positions to be able to gobble coalition.

While for Ruto retaining Jubilee winning coalition is all he needs.

Unlike Ruto, Raila does not need to even run for that election. He can mess up for Ruto completely by tosharing someone else. Even if he runs he does not need to have a Mt Kenya DP. Ruto has no other choice. If he fails to name a Kikuyu, a big chunk will run away from him. Their support for him is not because they hate Uhuru or love Ruto so much, but believe after Ruto it is another 10-20 years for them. Also we will see how the Merus and Embus will react to Ruto's DP coming from Kikuyuland.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Unlike Ruto, Raila does not need to even run for that election. He can mess up for Ruto completely by tosharing someone else. Even if he runs he does not need to have a Mt Kenya DP. Ruto has no other choice. If he fails to name a Kikuyu, a big chunk will run away from him. Their support for him is not because they hate Uhuru or love Ruto so much, but believe after Ruto it is another 10-20 years for them. Also we will see how the Merus and Embus will react to Ruto's DP coming from Kikuyuland.

No way raira he would name another kabila, kikuyu must be vp if not then thats why they are hellbent to change katiba so that PM is kikuyu, if he tries another kabila we are going back to ODM 1.0 or Nasa, Ruto before this handshake shenanigans had an opportunity to pick a mumeru but that has now gotten difficult and merus would understand that in the bigger arithmetic picture they will need take a back seat. Furthermore whats the hullabaloo as long as we seat with the heavyweights and get spill overs we are fine, we are just 2M, Ruto doesn't have that pressure to satisfy everyone like baba does and that's why baba needs BBI not Ruto

[Nefertiti]

Age is nothing, but a number. How old was Johnstone Kamau when he first got elected PM of Kenya?

Kibaki was 72 and lame vs Uhuru 42. Raila just needs to keep dying the hair and botox jabs. Kenyans are least bothered.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto’s GEMA headache has been badly complicated by Uhuru seizure of Jubilee. Shipping out is very likely to scuttle the Jubilee coalition. I don’t think Raila has 21% as Pundit says - NASA parties split the parliamentary vote in many places like Luhya. Raila reliably polls 35% solo before NASA - Ruto last solo poll was 14%. Ruto has a bigger problem holding together Jubilee than Raila with NASA.

[RV Pundit]

If you minus Rectangular, madvd and poor Kalo contribution to NASA - then Raila max out at 30% - when I am very fair - otherwise his core support is 25-30% - consisting of Luos and core of 15% - and 10% elsewhere - so Raila is "nothing" to Ruto.

Ruto next move will be dictated by GEMA and Uhuru. Plan A is obviously starting to unravel - and Ruto has to start fishing Plan B.

GEMA at this point can go many ways - it can split into factions with some backing Ruto - others backing Uhuru - or they can unite behind one candidate. Uhuru can back Gideon or Raila or a fellow Kikuyu or coalition that has Uhuru still running for anything (very laughable option). The only scenario where GEMA doesn't split is either Uhuru turning around 360% to back Ruto (very unlikely) or GEMA finding a uniting candidate (very unlikely - unless it's their own candidate).

So anyway we need to understand what Uhuru gameplan really is here and as we head towards 2022 - he has to play the dangerous card - the aces he has. Is he just playing rough because he is retiring or playing rough because he wants to disorganize the gameplan so he can run again.

Ruto’s GEMA headache has been badly complicated by Uhuru seizure of Jubilee. Shipping out is very likely to scuttle the Jubilee coalition. I don’t think Raila has 21% as Pundit says - NASA parties split the parliamentary vote in many places like Luhya. Raila reliably polls 35% solo before NASA - Ruto last solo poll was 14%. Ruto has a bigger problem holding together Jubilee than Raila with NASA.

[Pragmatic]

And be knowing as you proceed that the last two elections have been won through my good friend Chirchir tinkering with the IEBC voters’ roll. Basically spiking the database.

Kibaki 2.0 was won by blatant ballot stuffing.

You now see what Omolo and Kichwa Mbaya have been singing here.... no one has won the election in Kenya at the ballot for the last 3 cycles.

If you minus Rectangular, madvd and poor Kalo contribution to NASA - then Raila max out at 30% - when I am very fair - otherwise his core support is 25-30% - consisting of Luos and core of 15% - and 10% elsewhere - so Raila is "nothing" to Ruto.

Ruto next move will be dictated by GEMA and Uhuru. Plan A is obviously starting to unravel - and Ruto has to start fishing Plan B.

GEMA at this point can go many ways - it can split into factions with some backing Ruto - others backing Uhuru - or they can unite behind one candidate. Uhuru can back Gideon or Raila or a fellow Kikuyu or coalition that has Uhuru still running for anything (very laughable option). The only scenario where GEMA doesn't split is either Uhuru turning around 360% to back Ruto (very unlikely) or GEMA finding a uniting candidate (very unlikely - unless it's their own candidate).

So anyway we need to understand what Uhuru gameplan really is here and as we head towards 2022 - he has to play the dangerous card - the aces he has. Is he just playing rough because he is retiring or playing rough because he wants to disorganize the gameplan so he can run again.

Ruto’s GEMA headache has been badly complicated by Uhuru seizure of Jubilee. Shipping out is very likely to scuttle the Jubilee coalition. I don’t think Raila has 21% as Pundit says - NASA parties split the parliamentary vote in many places like Luhya. Raila reliably polls 35% solo before NASA - Ruto last solo poll was 14%. Ruto has a bigger problem holding together Jubilee than Raila with NASA.

[RV Pundit]

Those are lame excuses. 2007 was indeed blatantly rigged. 2013 and 2017 clean deal. 2022 looks very interesting but first we have maybe a referendum.

And be knowing as you proceed that the last two elections have been won through my good friend Chirchir tinkering with the IEBC voters’ roll. Basically spiking the database.

Kibaki 2.0 was won by blatant ballot stuffing.

You now see what Omolo and Kichwa Mbaya have been singing here.... no one has won the election in Kenya at the ballot for the last 3 cycles.

[KenyanPlato]

Those are lame excuses. 2007 was indeed blatantly rigged. 2013 and 2017 clean deal. 2022 looks very interesting but first we have maybe a referendum.

And be knowing as you proceed that the last two elections have been won through my good friend Chirchir tinkering with the IEBC voters’ roll. Basically spiking the database.

Kibaki 2.0 was won by blatant ballot stuffing.

You now see what Omolo and Kichwa Mbaya have been singing here.... no one has won the election in Kenya at the ballot for the last 3 cycles. As f

There wont be a referendum, There wont be a prime minister in Kenya. This is it. I think unless the courts and activists get in the way kenya may revert to imperial presidency. As for Uhuru, he will retire. One thing though he make sure no Kalenjin ascends to power for another 20 years

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru is going to be powerless very soon. If he is not amending the katiba - then he is going to be very lame-duck very fast. That is probably is biggest fear now - becoming lame-duck hence the dick.measuring

There wont be a referendum, There wont be a prime minister in Kenya. This is it. I think unless the courts and activists get in the way kenya may revert to imperial presidency. As for Uhuru, he will retire. One thing though he make sure no Kalenjin ascends to power for another 20 years

[KenyanPlato]

Ruto cannot escape GEMA elite onslaught in Central. I just saw a very good propaganda produced by Uhuru cronies on Ruto. Ruto needs all central and other GEMA tribes votes to win. He will be lucky to get 50%. Whoever gets GUSA nod will be the next president

Get hold of that video and have a kikuyu translate it for you. I think Ruto needs to quit and try and fight Uhuru from the opposition benches. He should try and get few popular central mps to quit and necessity by elections. This would give him a chance to be on the offence for 6 months in central