@Robina, YES. Debt is not to Ruto as a person, but to the Kalenjin. Therefore whoever Kalenjins have accepted as their leader/frontman is where the payment should be deposited. It happens to be Ruto and therefore Debt is owed to Ruto. Gideon is a non-starter in Kalenjin Land. If you think GM will deliver anything more than 2% then you better stop dreaming.
Second, Gema has beef with Uhuru. They no longer respect him as they used to. And they wish he was out of power. Even an old aunt has been treating Uhuru as someone he cannot even watch on TV delivering his mumbling. It's that bad.
Then you fail to appreciate or understand that Uhuru is on his FINAL TERM. He has served his two terms and no one wants him back. If he was dumping Ruto as we were going for 2nd term and took Raila, THEN there would be a chance that Gema would follow him. And even then it would have taken a lot of convincing the masses WHY he was teaming up with Raila. So for now, everyone in Gema knows/understand WE DON'T HAVE SOMEONE FOR PRESIDENT THIS TIME and WE ARE SUPPORTING RUTO. Uhuru has not explained to people why he is ditching Ruto; Why he wants to stay in power; Why Raila? etc etc. He just expects that Gema is made up of zombies who will follow his ass wherever he goes. It ain't happening!
It is the same attitude you and Raila and his supporters and political thinkers assume; that with Uhuru on board then Gema is taken care of. NOT THIS TIME. IT AIN'T WORKING AND IT WILL FAIL. WATCH THIS SPACE.
Things are thick; Irungu Kang;ata has gotten nothing but abuse and total rejection in his County for being with UHuru/Raila camp. You'd expect his County will be happy for he has been "promoted" but he's having it rough. That should tell you something. And there are no signs that it will change soon.
Third, any right thinking Geman even the not schooled one all agree THERE IS NO SUFFICIENT REASON TO ABANDON/BETRAY RUTO. And therefore most now see Uhuru as "selling us" that we cannot stick to a political deal or vote for anyone else. Ironically this view (without context) was popularized by Raila and now people are determined to prove it isn't true. Besides, even a bodaboda rider or a butchery attendant can see consequences of what Uhuru is doing; SO HOW COME UHURU CANNOT?
NB: Gema are not coward that they must support Ruto out of fear; but people are asking JUST TELL US WHY HE IS NO LONGER A GOOD PARTNER!? That crap of him being corrupt is and will not wash in Gema. Reason being "Who's clean?" Even there are people who can give you list of items/possessions Kenyatta the father as recorded by the British and ask you "walipata hizi vitu zote aje wako nazo leo?" Besides, let me not start with several scandals associated with Uhuru or Raila. Or any senior politician who have been in government. So that won't wash.
Should you bring issues that Ruto is to blame for PEV, then where was Raila? For if Uhuru reject Ruto because of PEV against Kikuyus, is Raila innocent? Besides, people know Raila campaigned and popularised 41 vs 1 and this is not a secret. Then he's blamed (for real or imagined) for instigating ICC charges and cases against Ruto and Uhuru.
Finally on PEV, since some peace meetings and others held in Nakuru and other places Ruto actually did talk about PEV and took "the Royal blame and apologised..." and people went on to form coalition which won in 2013. Since then people know Ruto has stuck to his word/promise and he has been a LOYAL DEPUTY to Uhuru. Therefore there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON NOT TO VOTE FOR HIM IN 2022.
That's the context of what's cooking.
For future violence; that's my theory (and a real possibility) that it can happen without anyone "big" planning as Kikuyus/Kalenjins live intermixed in the RV. And when things get hot emotions can get out of hand. More importantly i do not trust Uhuru/Raila group to play fair. Some dark forces may instigate violence as a way "getting rid of the obstacle..." through the ICC. Ole Ledama was laying the basics for such and it is a good thing BBI Reggae took a pause (half-time as per RAO).
BTW, I do not think Raila has Kambas on his side. You have claimed numerously that Raila has the upper hand outside of Gema/Kalenjin. That is not supported by fact. Raila is assured of Luos, Luhyas. Kisiis maybe 60%, Somalis are with Ruto and so are Turkanas. Kambas are NOT with Raila unless Kalonzo still agree to keep following Raila. So where are Raila numbers? And i bet majority of Maasais are with Ruto (you can take it to the bank..)