Pole Pundit & Bill Ruto but I Warned You

[RV Pundit]

GEMA will regret mightly if they don't reject Uhuru like Kalenjin did eventually to Moi - because Uhuru has decided to throw caution to the wind and start a war he won't finish. But it's very good war because GEMA has needed this - like Kalenjin needed to kick Moi and his group of selected elites. Ruto era gave Kalenjin new lease of life - and now it easy for 20yr old unknown person to be a governor.

GEMA has to reject what Uhuru is doing - otherwise, they are being driven into a very bad place - because the Luos will exact their revenge - while Kalenjin will be unforgiving. You don't open two war fronts - and you picked Gideon Moi to lead you .If GEMA elite were to play Ruto - Ruto will easily bid his time (54yrs) - he is very young and will back Raila.

What is going to happen is MAD - mutually assured destruction - and right now only the GEMA laity revolution against the selfish elite will save it.

  If you do a simple sample on say Facebook it's obvious the average luo guy currently has a big dislike for both kikuyu and kalenjin a fact that is not lost especially on kikuyus so Uhuru trying to push Raila will be a really hard sell if not dead on arrival. Njuris observation seems more plausible.As for Rift valley kikuyu unless the kalenjin give us someone to replace Ruto , we are bound by the understanding started by the elders of both communities after the election violence and before both Uhuru and Ruto endorsed it to support our neighbors. It's a gentleman goodwill gesture just like the African Americans came to Bidens rescue.

[mankind]

  As of now the notion that kikuyus can not be trusted to keep a promise has been strongly implanted in among other communities, the luo and kamba. The luhyia are kinda divided on that because Wamalwa died before his chance so you can't accuse Kibaki of not keeping his promise. Now to any sane kikuyu it seems obvious that we are being set up against the only remaining major community and that label will be sealed for ever. Like I said if Ruto did something so bad let Uhuru tell us. The only other way is for the kalenjin to give us someone else to support. As gema we have to stay out of the fight between Gideon and Ruto and support whoever the kalenjin chose just as happened with Uhuru and akina Karua and Kenneth. Anything else is suicide politically.

[RV Pundit]

Interesting times ahead. With COVID-19 - and Uhuru destabilizing his gov - we are getting into very interesting times. Some of people are not very bright. Like South Sudan Nuer-Dinka war. The Dinka star a war they cannot finish. They kill the economy and waste 10yrs to realize they cannot beat Nuers.

  As of now the notion that kikuyus can not be trusted to keep a promise has been strongly implanted in among other communities, the luo and kamba. The luhyia are kinda divided on that because Wamalwa died before his chance so you can't accuse Kibaki of not keeping his promise. Now to any sane kikuyu it seems obvious that we are being set up against the only remaining major community and that label will be sealed for ever. Like I said if Ruto did something so bad let Uhuru tell us. The only other way is for the kalenjin to give us someone else to support. As gema we have to stay out of the fight between Gideon and Ruto and support whoever the kalenjin chose just as happened with Uhuru and akina Karua and Kenneth. Anything else is suicide politically.

[Nefertiti]

Here we go again - Ruto did not beat Moi in Kalenjin - Moi was 10 years from retirement and senile at 88. It akin to "beating" Kibaki in GEMA now - which is nonsense cause he is long retired and senile. What really aided Ruto was TIME - Moi simply aged and withered away - and Gideon incompetence. In 2002 90% Kalenjin, MATUSA, Mijikenda, NFD, Kiambu voted Uhuru-Moi. So save it - there are almost ZERO parallels between Mt Kenya and Uhuru vs Kalenjin and Moi.

Another lie again about Ruto imaginary magic. During Raila vs Ruto war for Kalenjin, Ruto was aided and used by Kibaki and GEMA to fight Raila. So Ruto appeared mighty and smart while in truth he was used by Kibaki and Uhuru. Now Uhuru and GEMA are using Raila to fight Ruto. There is nothing outstanding about Ruto as you can see he is no match for Uhuru machinery. He won't even go to court because Uhuru can brazenly intimidate the judges ala SCORK 2017 presidential re-run.

About "revolt" in Mt Kenya. Ruto needs 90% GEMA to stand a chance against Raila. All those elites and big fish against Ruto are not delusional and will equally influence their people. Most MPs are actually passive and will not ship with Ruto to hustler party. Only a handful of MPs stick out their neck for Ruto - the rest sign protest letter and never even show up at rallies. Njuri and Pundit have very wishful thinking - jaundiced views and blinkers - it is very hard to leave Jubilee with GEMA, Matusa, Bukusu and shebang without Uhuru and GoK cronyism. PORK has too many cards. It why Ruto bought off and merged all those parties - to create mean machine - which has imploded as Pundit et al buried their heads in the sand last 2 years. Class vs tribalism is new experiment that Ruto can try out... against Raila "integrity" or "inclusion" - both are usual tribalism in gift wrapping.

Lastly if Ruto back Raila... that would be very good for Kenya - because his corrupt ways will take a back seat for another 10 or more years. Someone openly corrupting the clergy is a bad omen for the nation. But that is actually stupid and unlikely - Ruto is better off as official opposition leader which is a better chance for future stub at PORK.

GEMA will regret mightly if they don't reject Uhuru like Kalenjin did eventually to Moi - because Uhuru has decided to throw caution to the wind and start a war he won't finish. But it's very good war because GEMA has needed this - like Kalenjin needed to kick Moi and his group of selected elites. Ruto era gave Kalenjin new lease of life - and now it easy for 20yr old unknown person to be a governor.

GEMA has to reject what Uhuru is doing - otherwise, they are being driven into a very bad place - because the Luos will exact their revenge - while Kalenjin will be unforgiving. You don't open two war fronts - and you picked Gideon Moi to lead you .If GEMA elite were to play Ruto - Ruto will easily bid his time (54yrs) - he is very young and will back Raila.

What is going to happen is MAD - mutually assured destruction - and right now only the GEMA laity revolution against the selfish elite will save it.

[Omollo]

Robina

One very likely scenario is Uhuru and the cabal that Pundit refers to go for broke and shaft both Ruto and Raila. I've expected them to shaft Raila and exorcise Ruto (preferably scientifically).

In event the scientific exorcism fails and Raila is nursing a sore asshole, it is possible to remember that injured mongrels make friends while licking each others wounds. They emerge having formed a deadly gang

Pundit & Omollo: Uhuru and the GEMA elite know their choices and have chosen Raila. They are busy tagging along the masses and they have enough tools to pull it off. I don’t see a Raila-Ruto alliance because there is little time and circumstance for Kenyatta to pull a BBI rabbit. The stars are lined up for Raila and he is not stupid to mess it up. Expect Raila to bend over backwards for Uhuru and GEMA including ignore the looting, tribal appointments, stupidity like taking over Nairobi, etc- and ultimately sign a 50-50 MOU which he won’t keep.

This is Kenya so after 2022, expect usual betrayal and bickering with friends and foes switching places exactly as now. Pundit’s story about Ruto or the Kalenjin being more trustworthy is not fooling anyone on the mountain. Raila’s advanced years and the RV geopolitics favor a partnership with Raila not Ruto.

Pundit & Omollo: Uhuru and the GEMA elite know their choices and have chosen Raila. They are busy tagging along the masses and they have enough tools to pull it off. I don’t see a Raila-Ruto alliance because there is little time and circumstance for Kenyatta to pull a BBI rabbit. The stars are lined up for Raila and he is not stupid to mess it up. Expect Raila to bend over backwards for Uhuru and GEMA including ignore the looting, tribal appointments, stupidity like taking over Nairobi, etc- and ultimately sign a 50-50 MOU which he won’t keep.

This is Kenya so after 2022, expect usual betrayal and bickering with friends and foes switching places exactly as now. Pundit’s story about Ruto or the Kalenjin being more trustworthy is not fooling anyone on the mountain. Raila’s advanced years and the RV geopolitics favor a partnership with Raila not Ruto.

[Omollo]

Robina

Pundit is still as naive as we were to imagine there will be real or near real elections. That ended in 2002 and will never happen again without a revolution. It's the state which will decide who beat who.

[RV Pundit]

Unless either Raila or Ruto dies - I think for the first time we see the transfer of power from GEMA to a new elite.  I don't think the state can handle both. Impossible. Unless they go for assassination.

You'll see Uhuru really struggle to govern going forward unless he makes Raila his true partner.

Robina

Pundit is still as naive as we were to imagine there will be real or near real elections. That ended in 2002 and will never happen again without a revolution. It's the state which will decide who beat who.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Robina

Pundit is still as naive as we were to imagine there will be real or near real elections. That ended in 2002 and will never happen again without a revolution. It's the state which will decide who beat who.

I have noticed there are two camps.  Those that are believe the elections reflect reality on the ground and those that have made peace with sham elections.  The former subscribe to Kalenjin/GEMA supremacy and believe courting GEMA is key.  The latter buy none of that, and believe that control of state machinery is key.  Depending on which camp you fall, some analysis will simply never make sense.  If I am not wrong, I think Robina also believes those elections are real.

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru has no way around term limits without BBI... so he must pick one and has settled on Raila. He is not delusional. The reasoning is: Raila has no direct Mt Kenya support and in theory would struggle to get it even as PORK. Given the reality of term limit I see no reason for Raila to make any big demands in GoK now at the risk of a fallout. He will entertain the brats for a good chance against Ruto. What exactly would Uhuru do to “betray” Raila - it either him or Ruto. No PK or Kikuyu can hack it now... Uhuru will pick a runningmate and sign a paper about 50-50  ... tough luck.

First Uhuru now has to finish off the greedy scornful, entitled, condescending Ruto who dared invade his house and make out with Ngina.

[RV Pundit]

Very laughable.

Uhuru has no way around term limits without BBI... so he must pick one and has settled on Raila. He is not delusional. The reasoning is: Raila has no direct Mt Kenya support and in theory would struggle to get it even as PORK. Given the reality of term limit I see no reason for Raila to make any big demands in GoK now at the risk of a fallout. He will entertain the brats for a good chance against Ruto. What exactly would Uhuru do to “betray” Raila - it either him or Ruto. No PK or Kikuyu can hack it now... Uhuru will pick a runningmate and sign a paper about 50-50  ... tough luck.

First Uhuru now has to finish off the greedy scornful, entitled, condescending Ruto who dared invade his house and make out with Ngina.

[RV Pundit]

Its hard to beat sitting president anywhere going for re-election. It also hard to beat a sitting gov narrowly. So if you're running against the state - then it has to be like 2002 - a kind of white-wash that would be impossible to top or rig.

I have noticed there are two camps.  Those that are believe the elections reflect reality on the ground and those that have made peace with sham elections.  The former subscribe to Kalenjin/GEMA supremacy and believe courting GEMA is key.  The latter buy none of that, and believe that control of state machinery is key.  Depending on which camp you fall, some analysis will simply never make sense.  If I am not wrong, I think Robina also believes those elections are real.

[Nefertiti]

Which is why whoever of Raila or Ruto has Uhuru support is the next PORK. Uhuru and GEMA are backing Raila for the same reason Ruto backed Uhuru in 2012 - inability or less likelihood to take over the their base.

Its hard to beat sitting president anywhere going for re-election. It also hard to beat a sitting gov narrowly. So if you're running against the state - then it has to be like 2002 - a kind of white-wash that would be impossible to top or rig.

[Nefertiti]

People will tell you am Machiavellian. Or Darwinian. Fairness and justice are human constructs - not natural instincts - until earthlings evolve the strongest will prevail. Poor Ruto is going nowhere.

I have noticed there are two camps.  Those that are believe the elections reflect reality on the ground and those that have made peace with sham elections.  The former subscribe to Kalenjin/GEMA supremacy and believe courting GEMA is key.  The latter buy none of that, and believe that control of state machinery is key.  Depending on which camp you fall, some analysis will simply never make sense.  If I am not wrong, I think Robina also believes those elections are real.

[RV Pundit]

You're 2yrs ahead of everyone. We don't know who Uhuru will back. And we don't know who GEMA will back. Control your Jubilation as your enter gov.

Which is why whoever of Raila or Ruto has Uhuru support is the next PORK. Uhuru and GEMA are backing Raila for the same reason Ruto backed Uhuru in 2012 - inability to take over the other’s base.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has never run for PORK and will not run for PORK if he doesn't have a shot. Siasa bado. GEMA & Uhuru backing Raila is the stuff of legends. That just is laughable.

People will tell you am Machiavellian. Or Darwinian. Fairness and justice are human constructs - not natural instincts - until earthlings evolve the strongest will prevail. Poor Ruto is going nowhere.

[Nefertiti]

You been telling us Ruto is sleepwalking to SH for 7 years now... how can I be ahead of you?

You're 2yrs ahead of everyone. We don't know who Uhuru will back. And we don't know who GEMA will back. Control your Jubilation as your enter gov.

[Nefertiti]

GEMA neither ever backed Kalenjin. It would be a first. It laughable you imagined Uhuru can sit as a duck as Ruto take over GEMA. How is that going now?

Ruto has never run for PORK and will not run for PORK if he doesn't have a shot. Siasa bado. GEMA & Uhuru backing Raila is the stuff of legends. That just is laughable.

[RV Pundit]

Kagwe is dead as dodo - 4M tea finished him.

Pundit so is Ruto still running with Kiunjuri as DPORK? The bloke is MIA as Kagwe hog the airwaves. Or is he waiting for Uhuru to endorse him - I doubt Ruto is delusional like you.

[Kichwa]

Its true that my reaction back then is comparable to Pundit's denial but only  up to a certain point. However, you have to cut me some slack here because that was then and this is now. We had just came out of the liberation struggle and we were innocent, young and naive.  What's Pundit's excuse?

Saying I told you so isn't a strong person's asset. When issue such a caution to a child playing with a razor blade you often get into the house and pull out the first aid kit & prepare for the bleeding.

I recall the experience I had with my brother KM. I picked up the signals first: we had been shafted by Kibaki in 2003 though the full extent of the bila vaseline act would take come out in 2004. KM refused to admit and he wasn't alone. There ensued a civil war between us who were cheering LDP. I was a late convert to opposition having remained true to KANU & was the last soldier to emerge from the forest. I transferred my all to LDP not least because Mudavadi and other wild animals were not in.

On a visit to Kenya I practically ran over Kibaki huddled with Mudavadi. Shortly after I met Raila driving a splitting new range rover with Mudavadi in the passenger side. I knew Kibaki was preparing to screw Raila.

It's all history.

My advice to Ruto is for him to count his losses. The only way to defeat Uhuru is to let Uhuru defeat himself. If I were Ruto I'd quit & watch Uhuru try to shaft Raila a head of schedule.

Like I wrote before i see an 2007 like alliance in the making. As with 2007 the traitors will be Kalonzo & Mudavadi