Pole Pundit & Bill Ruto but I Warned You

[Nefertiti]

I need to clap for you both punda and robina, how you can sustain an endless duet baffles me, and that's one reason i joined this nipate. That aside Robina has managed to defeat Punda by luring him on long essays, punda is very good for short straight battles but engaged on long rumbling essays he easily loses his cool and focus... But apart from that most
Reasoning from robina and the like is that Ruto is trapped without an exit. Ruto is far ahead in the mental section here all his foes combined come short, Ruto has managed to bait all his enemies into exposing themselves and wanking dry, a perfect stalinist move just like what Kim jong Un has done in N.korea,his enemies were celebrating his death now he knows them all. Since am not good at inshas i leave robina with a question, have you considered the options Ruto has? I will educate you if you dont

duhh it is called debating - welcome to freedom.

Do educate us on Ruto's "options." I doubt your spin is any better than Pundit's. He could as well shelf his ambitions to back Raila or anyone else - so long as he does not get the top job am fine. I am not so much pro-Raila as anti-Ruto. The snake in the garden.

[RV Pundit]

If Uhuru convinces GEMA to back Raila - it's over for Ruto. There is not iffs. But it's not happening. You think Uhuru hates Ruto so much he will do everything to spite or block him from DPORK. That he will forget he is spitting himself. Raila is MAD candidate for both Uhuru and Ruto.

Talk of cutting your nose to spite at your face.

Uhuru has been lining up GEMA bigwigs behind Raila - so it not a theory. Uhuru will land Raila a big chunk of GEMA. He has deliberately propped Kagwes and Munyas - we are yet to see if he will prop PK as well. The ultimate card remains hidden under the table but it clear as daylight that Ruto is new kîmûndû.

Ruto with his omena - Nyoro and Kuria - will wind up like Raila 2013 in Kalenjin. Kuria or Ngirici is no different from Kosgey or Sirma. Of course it pure spin that Raila is DOA or Ruto is shoe in. Both got there by riding on Kibaki and Uhuru - then Raila "Njamba" got demonized after falling out with Kibaki. Now it Ruto turn to be demonized - I hear there are dirty videos on social media from weekend? - it going like clockwork. Sorry to burst your bubble but Ruto is not special nor immune to demonization. Kiambaa videos will shred him to pieces - he will be down to Raila 2% - when they are done with him.

You are right about BBI 2 being torpedoed by COVID. But that is unnecessary to hang Ruto. Already the bloke is being rendered party-less. He need to pull the UDM-to-URP miracle - herd GEMA and Jumwas to Tangatanga Party - before you sober up as he poll 15% like 2012.

So your theory is Uhuru will endorse Raila and Raila will win on the back of GEMA and Non-GEMA. or Pajero's GEMA will pull a GEMA rabbit and back him? Or what exactly are you talking about.

The constitution looks increasingly difficult to change.

So we are back to exchanging only two positions - PORK and DPORK (although Uhuru has rained on DPORK position).

My position remain as unchanged. GEMA will back Ruto with or without Uhuru.

Initially, I was imagining Ruto getting the backing of Uhuru to intercede on his behalf - but the opposite is happening.

Uhuru can get some GEMA back if he tries the Pajero option - find some GEMA and prop him up. Raila OPTION is  Kicheko biggest.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru honeymoon will end in 2021. Mid 2021 - election is one year. The gloves will be so off - and uhuru will be officially lameduck. Let us see who survive this COVID-19 - and then we can go 2021 when everyone interested in politics will out there.

To fight Uhuru whose is PORK takes Ruto like patience, brains and strategy. You don't go rushing headlong.

Pundit so is Ruto still running with Kiunjuri as DPORK? The bloke is MIA as Kagwe hog the airwaves. Or is he waiting for Uhuru to endorse him - I doubt Ruto is delusional like you.

[Pajero]

I dont know why you people keep debating about 2022.Neither Raila nor Ruto will see the Gema vote.They will each hang separately.

[RV Pundit]

That more plausible theory than Robina. Ruto will get GEMA vote - they are keen to payback. GEMA don't have the time to generate a candidate who'd be acceptable even within GEMA.

I dont know why you people keep debating about 2022.Neither Raila nor Ruto will see the Gema vote.They will each hang separately.

[Omollo]

🤣🤣 I missed that about being related to Robina. I like her. She's smart.

Ok. I didn't realize you're still in denial. Good luck

Long time brother Omoro, i wondered where you went almost started a thread asking about your whereabouts after the other nipate, funniest stuff is are you related to Robina?? He writes long essays just like you. However i can see you haven't mastered politics well very unfortunate

[Omollo]

First Ruto has to know his enemy. Then either destroy him or make peace. So far he's pursued a scorched earth tactic- attacking anybody he considers an obstacle and in the process getting bogged down in skirmishes that have opened him to destruction.

Secondly he must recognize that it's not about power for Kenyatta. It's about self preservation and a chance to get a stab at power in future. As of now Raila or even hapless MDVD looks more assuring to the Kenyattas.

3rd he must understand that the Kikuyu Intelligentsia despise their riff raff. They have no time for them. They are there to vote or appear to vote as instructed. Cultivating their support is directly threatening the power structure Jomo set up after independence.

Roadblocks:

Like I predicted, Ruto will strike a deal with Raila. It is inevitable because Uhuru isn't Mama Ngina to keep a deal. He'll be tempted to follow the hawkish and rejectionists in his camp. They'll try to do a Kibaki.

That said, I can't see him winning. He's made some serious mistakes.

Sound like  GEMA are ready cut their nose to spite their face. So this plan is very good for Raila. And what is in for GEMA - PM position? How does

[RV Pundit]

GEMA are btw a hard place and a rock. This time power has to leave the Mountain. They have two choice unless someone get assisinated. They either choose Raila or Ruto. The people understand this very well. A few people around Uhuru are so scared of losing power they don't give a damn. They are the most dangerous going forward because they know if power leave - then it will be tough 10yrs to get it back or maybe longer if demographics changes. They would wish Uhuru was granted a third term somehow.

But the reality - the choice for 2022 is clear...Raila or Ruto.

First Ruto has to know his enemy. Then either destroy him or make peace. So far he's pursued a scorched earth tactic- attacking anybody he considers an obstacle and in the process getting bogged down in skirmishes that have opened him to destruction.

Secondly he must recognize that it's not about power for Kenyatta. It's about self preservation and a chance to get a stab at power in future. As of now Raila or even hapless MDVD looks more assuring to the Kenyattas.

3rd he must understand that the Kikuyu Intelligentsia despise their riff raff. They have no time for them. They are there to vote or appear to vote as instructed. Cultivating their support is directly threatening the power structure Jomo set up after independence.

Roadblocks:

Like I predicted, Ruto will strike a deal with Raila. It is inevitable because Uhuru isn't Mama Ngina to keep a deal. He'll be tempted to follow the hawkish and rejectionists in his camp. They'll try to do a Kibaki.

That said, I can't see him winning. He's made some serious mistakes.

Sound like  GEMA are ready cut their nose to spite their face. So this plan is very good for Raila. And what is in for GEMA - PM position? How does

[Nefertiti]

Pundit & Omollo: Uhuru and the GEMA elite know their choices and have chosen Raila. They are busy tagging along the masses and they have enough tools to pull it off. I don’t see a Raila-Ruto alliance because there is little time and circumstance for Kenyatta to pull a BBI rabbit. The stars are lined up for Raila and he is not stupid to mess it up. Expect Raila to bend over backwards for Uhuru and GEMA including ignore the looting, tribal appointments, stupidity like taking over Nairobi, etc- and ultimately sign a 50-50 MOU which he won’t keep.

This is Kenya so after 2022, expect usual betrayal and bickering with friends and foes switching places exactly as now. Pundit’s story about Ruto or the Kalenjin being more trustworthy is not fooling anyone on the mountain. Raila’s advanced years and the RV geopolitics favor a partnership with Raila not Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

We shall see - maybe this time GEMA-Luo union will last longer than 2yrs. It normally hasn't lasted that long. Jaramogi-Kenyatta fell out 3yrs. Jaramogi-Matiba 1yr. Raila-Kibaki last 2yrs. Ruto and GEMa have been in the union for many years - just like Moi - Kenyatta lasted many years - and so did Moi-Kibaki. What is important is for Raila and GEMA to learn loyalty and respect in any such coalition - otherwise, it become a destabilizing force.

Pundit & Omollo: Uhuru and the GEMA elite know their choices and have chosen Raila. They are busy tagging along the masses and they have enough tools to pull it off. I don’t see a Raila-Ruto alliance because there is little time and circumstance for Kenyatta to pull a BBI rabbit. The stars are lined up for Raila and he is not stupid to mess it up. Expect Raila to bend over backwards for Uhuru and GEMA including ignore the looting, tribal appointments, stupidity like taking over Nairobi, etc- and ultimately sign a 50-50 MOU which he won’t keep.

This is Kenya so after 2022, expect usual betrayal and bickering with friends and foes switching places exactly as now. Pundit’s story about Ruto or the Kalenjin being more trustworthy is not fooling anyone on the mountain. Raila’s advanced years and the RV geopolitics favor a partnership with Raila not Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Luos don’t murder folks when shit hit the fan. They merely block roads, burn tyres and loot kiosks. Kalenjin-Luo alliance of course has the worst record: Moi refuse Jaramogi to be Ag PORK for mere single day as his dying wish - Moi betray Raila after 6 months merger - Ruto sabotage Raila by falsely indicting him for ICC and Mau. That Raila-Ruto lasted few days before Ruto started demanding 5 powerful cabinet posts.

Only reason Uhuru/GEMA tolerated Ruto 5years is 50%+1 .. the real test is the ZERO DAYS Jubilee lasted after 2nd swearing in 

With 50%+1 insular GEMA has better leverage due to the fierce non-GEMA rivalry. That’s how lame Kibaki then dumb Uhuru sneaked in. Even now Raila and Ruto would rather Uhuru stay on than let the other win.

[RV Pundit]

Sometimes you get ahead of yourself. Jubilee still very much intact. We still have our 50-50 - in the cabinet, in parastatals, ambassadors and shebang - including in parliament. It may not be as equal as in Jubilee 1.0 when Ruto basically was running the show - but it's still a pretty good deal.

As for Raila-Ruto or Kalenjin-Luo - agreed - no synergy. The Odinga are very hard to work with. Moi even tried rehabilitating Jaramogi but gave up.

If Uhuru and GEMA are willing to carry the monkey on their bank - who will disagree? Uhuru and GEMA are in a BIG debate over that. As for RV - Land - we are hosting 1M kikuyus in diaspora in our ancestral lands thanks to Jomo Kenyatta land grab - so that is big issues for Kalenjin. Kalenjin agreed with Kikuyus to bury the hatchet, share power and if Uhuru wants war - he surely will get one. He is surely asking for another PEV if he was to listen to Marathas.

Luos don’t murder folks when shit hit the fan. They merely block roads, burn tyres and loot kiosks. Kalenjin-Luo alliance of course has the worst record: Moi refuse Jaramogi to be Ag PORK for mere single day as his dying wish - Moi betray Raila after 6 months merger - Ruto sabotage Raila by falsely indicting him for ICC and Mau. That Raila-Ruto lasted few days before Ruto started demanding 5 powerful cabinet posts.

Only reason Uhuru/GEMA tolerated Ruto 5years is 50%+1 .. the real test is the ZERO DAYS Jubilee lasted after 2nd swearing in 

With 50%+1 insular GEMA has better leverage due to the fierce non-GEMA rivalry. That’s how lame Kibaki then dumb Uhuru sneaked in. Even now Raila and Ruto would rather Uhuru stay on than let the other win.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Uhuru knows very well what is at stake should he double deal Ruto, but what he doesn't know is the magnitude of reaction in that event, for the first time mt. Kenya would also burn his properties would suffer as they would be ransacked by GEMA especially kikuyu masses. The masssea are for Ruto simple and clear, Am quite surprised that Robina and Omollo are counting on the so called GEMA elite instead of the masses. Have said many times GEMA dont have the same mentality as luos where you can just lump them together and sell them like potatoes in sacks to highest bidder, for Raira to even think the remotest chance for him to stand would be to pick a GEMA running mate, that by itself would be the most minimum to be even considered, i see raira been played and Uhuru could be trying to play them both and sneak in another Kikuyu. Uhuru however is not that intelligent and any miscalculation will lead to the end of Kenyattas hegemony

[Nefertiti]

Ruto MOU with Uhuru was 2013-2032. That is dead.

Power-sharing or consultation- dead.

The CS’s or parastatal and ambassador are retained tactically in GoK so Ruto has something to lose. It also deny him underdog or outsider card. I see nothing resembling 50-50 when Uhuru rule and eat alone or with Raila and Matiang’i - while the entire machinery has been mobilized against Ruto. DPORK is mere VP shell like Saitoti or Kibaki in Jubilee 2.0

Sometimes you get ahead of yourself. Jubilee still very much intact. We still have our 50-50 - in the cabinet, in parastatals, ambassadors and shebang - including in parliament. It may not be as equal as in Jubilee 1.0 when Ruto basically was running the show - but it's still a pretty good deal.

As for Raila-Ruto or Kalenjin-Luo - agreed - no synergy. The Odinga are very hard to work with. Moi even tried rehabilitating Jaramogi but gave up.

If Uhuru and GEMA are willing to carry the monkey on their bank - who will disagree? Uhuru and GEMA are in a BIG debate over that. As for RV - Land - we are hosting 1M kikuyus in diaspora in our ancestral lands thanks to Jomo Kenyatta land grab - so that is big issues for Kalenjin. Kalenjin agreed with Kikuyus to bury the hatchet, share power and if Uhuru wants war - he surely will get one. He is surely asking for another PEV if he was to listen to Marathas.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto has Murkomen, Kihika, Duale, Washiali and GEMA mlolongo MPs. It this pyrrhic victory that rattled GEMA elite in the first place. He should have stayed lean and meek and trust Uhuru to keep his word - as he moronically lectures Raila should have done with Kibaki.

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo tried that before - he still has 20mps like he had 10yrs ago. GEMA elite has to accept to lose power. Raila in my view is a scarecrow they are using to threaten Ruto with. Ruto can easily pull the plug by endorsing Raila even just for the fun of it.

Ruto has Murkomen, Kihika, Duale, Washiali and GEMA mlolongo MPs. It this pyrrhic victory that rattled GEMA elite in the first place. He should have stayed lean and meek and trust Uhuru to keep his word - as he moronically lectures Raila should have done with Kibaki.

[RV Pundit]

Welcome to Robina's brain-picking daily routine. Yes I think the problem is Uhuru has to explain to Gema what is plan is - 1) if this Raila - I think no boarding will happen - and I also doubt Uhuru can endorse Raila 2) If it's another Kikuyu - then depending on who - GEMA might listen. But I think Uhuru is just being selfish - and eventually, he will slither away - cut his own deal with Ruto - and leave whoever will emerge to lead GEMA. Within Kieleweke they have no such leader. So Pro-Ruto group will simply do a deal with Ruto.

Uhuru knows very well what is at stake should he double deal Ruto, but what he doesn't know is the magnitude of reaction in that event, for the first time mt. Kenya would also burn his properties would suffer as they would be ransacked by GEMA especially kikuyu masses. The masssea are for Ruto simple and clear, Am quite surprised that Robina and Omollo are counting on the so called GEMA elite instead of the masses. Have said many times GEMA dont have the same mentality as luos where you can just lump them together and sell them like potatoes in sacks to highest bidder, for Raira to even think the remotest chance for him to stand would be to pick a GEMA running mate, that by itself would be the most minimum to be even considered, i see raira been played and Uhuru could be trying to play them both and sneak in another Kikuyu. Uhuru however is not that intelligent and any miscalculation will lead to the end of Kenyattas hegemony

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee laity is still carrying on Jubilee's mission. They see Uhuru has betrayed that mission. Eventually, the revolt will happen. And that will happen in 2021 because the election is going to happen soon after. This COVID will make gov look bad because the economy is going to take a big hit - the next 2yrs. People will go jobless. Small businesses will die. And Uhuru will become even more unpopular.

Ruto has Murkomen, Kihika, Duale, Washiali and GEMA mlolongo MPs. It this pyrrhic victory that rattled GEMA elite in the first place. He should have stayed lean and meek and trust Uhuru to keep his word - as he moronically lectures Raila should have done with Kibaki.

[Nefertiti]

To what end? He did that in 2012 - pretend to endorse Raila - as Uhuru did with Mdvd. He still wound up as DPORK and is now crying in the toilet. It would be the same or worse with Raila. It is Ruto and Kalenjin who need to accept there is only room for one big non-GEMA in Kenya. Raila could only land Luhya, Mijikenda, Matusa after Moi retired. Uhuru and GEMA know power is going away and have settled on old Odinga as the safer bet.

The real delusion is that a non-GEMA can directly usurp GEMA as Ruto has tried. Hehe - in which world would an incumbent PORK allow it to happen? - everyone but Pundit saw this as DOA strategy from 2016.

Ruto best chance is probably after Raila - at least compromised Ngunyi thinks so.

Kalonzo tried that before - he still has 20mps like he had 10yrs ago. GEMA elite has to accept to lose power. Raila in my view is a scarecrow they are using to threaten Ruto with. Ruto can easily pull the plug by endorsing Raila even just for the fun of it.

[mankind]

  If you do a simple sample on say Facebook it's obvious the average luo guy currently has a big dislike for both kikuyu and kalenjin a fact that is not lost especially on kikuyus so Uhuru trying to push Raila will be a really hard sell if not dead on arrival. Njuris observation seems more plausible.As for Rift valley kikuyu unless the kalenjin give us someone to replace Ruto , we are bound by the understanding started by the elders of both communities after the election violence and before both Uhuru and Ruto endorsed it to support our neighbors. It's a gentleman goodwill gesture just like the African Americans came to Bidens rescue.