The continued decline of one William Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

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Now his allies are pleading for DPORK position because apparently of all people MaDVD is now an alternative for their coveted position of DPORK (read loyal dog).

WSR began as URP leader with significant support from Kamatusa+NEP+many other small tribes. In my MOAS that was about 22-24%. Uhuru had 28-30%. Raila had about 26-28%. Kalonzo 10%. MaDVD and others pretenders remained with 5%.That never played out as pre-election deals were entered...but parliamentary seats won by each of those parties...reflect largely the strength of each candidate.

Right now Ruto has i think anything but less than 15%...heck maybe he has 8% if current attrition in Kalenjin land continues as he drives gema centrist agenda which ran contrary to his URP constituency of largely small marginalized tribes . As of now the kipsigis who make nearly half of kalenjin are split right down the middle...i think MATUSA+Somali are gone...WSR simply is singing out of tune.

Ruto salvation will only come when he does what folks what him to do...LEAD and stop fawning. Ruto has to "declare" the deal was only 5 yrs and he intend to ran for 2017. He has been busy build his network but for Jubilee.

Ruto has to make it very clear to Uhuru that come 2017..it either medvev-putin--or they will face each other or even better he will back Raila (that will force Uhuru to do Medved). Uhuru will have the benefit of incumbency but he won't get anywhere near even 40%...if he was to choose madvd. MaDVD has been VP of Uhuru in 2002 and he lost badly. He was Raila's VP in 2007 and Luhyas simply did not deliver...again splitting with Bukusu and allied backing Kibaki...Maragoli and allied backing Raila. Luhya is political misnomer given all those subtribes have their own ideas.

If Ruto was to ran; then it means there will DEFINITELY be a second round...either btw Uhuru and Raila..or Uhuru and Ruto....and you can make the same 50-50% deal with either.

And if Ruto was to remain with Uhuru...many kalenjin will be unhappy and will give a protest vote (at least 1/3 in my view)..so the razor sharp 0.08% cannot be sustained...Luhyas this time round will unite fully behind Raila (who is emerging from the dead while maDVD is DOA)...so even UhuRuto in 2017 will have to face a second round.

A second round will bury Uhuru.

As insurance...everyone should support pesa mashinani...because there is only one post..50-50.

http://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/Jubilee-Government-Wiretap-Cornelius-Serem/-/1950946/2469486/-/format/xhtml/-/13h9brp/-/index.html

[machoman]

interesting analysis. Kenyas political terrain is very unpredictable.

[veritas]

Ruto's out of the picture. He helped launch a tyrant - Uhuru. Uhuru will be up there for a fair few years to come.

[Omollo]

I agree with a few amendments. We have been studying Western thoroughly as it is the next big thing after RVs showing in 2007 and 2013:

1. This time there is a winning formula in Western. Busia has always been Raila/ ODM territory so it will remain so regardless of any games TNA might play with Ababu Namwamba; Bungoma is now firmly behind Wetangula thanks to TNA trying to meddle and impose Musikari Kombo and Eugene. This extends deep in to Trans Nzoia where Eugene will have a choice play ball or sink with MaDVD;

2. Western comes in two pieces: Busia (Teso) - Bungoma (Tans Nzoia) and Kakamega - Vihiga. They largely vote as blocks. Historically Northern Kakamega has tended to join the Busia-Bungoma block (1992, 97 and 2002) while Vihiga and Southern Kakamega has voted as a block. Until 2007, the two blocks were mutually exclusive in their voting preferences. The reason was simple: in a country where voters are influenced by demagogues, Southern Kakamega never had a charismatic leader except for a brief period in 1992 when Shikuku came to the fore. But his influence did not reach Vihiga where KANU reclaimed three seats and eventually took the one from the Opposition (FORD Asili).

3. The rise of both Khalwale and Wetangula has changed the picture. While Wetangula has solidified his hold on Bungoma and Busia, Khalwale has spread his influence deep in to Vihiga and has practically annihilated MaDVD. Thanks to Khalwale, MaDVD was able to get some votes in his home county and won two seats including the Senate. Even then ODM won the majority presidential votes in Vihiga. Now Khalwale is in CORD and he speaks the language the common man understands. While MaDVD is opposing more money to the County, his people, including the governor are supporting.

[Omollo]

Ruto's out of the picture. He helped launch a tyrant - Uhuru. Uhuru will be up there for a fair few years to come.

Watch your language Veri. Njamlik will cross from his swamp to come and launch attacks on you. Be ready to be labeled a man.

[Omollo]

I should add that the idea of a MaDVD running mate is a joke that I welcome. Western got rid of a running mate who they deemed too much of a poodle. MaDVD has been rejected three times (Twice as running mate and once as Presidential candidate).

[RV Pundit]

Agreed. I think the areas to watch now is Luhya. If the status quo hold; CORD will now be neck to neck with Jubilee; If i was to do OKOA MOAS (let assume Jubilee hold); i see 50-50; AMANI 4% has basically gone to CORD.

We might be see that plays out in the referendum.

Jubilee has basically intentional or not mismanaged AMANI; they've made MaDVD and Wamalwa the laughing stock and an embarrassment of luhyas who supported them by leaving them in the cold; I think they should have given Wamalwa and Mudavadi cabinet positions by now. It might to too little too late to appease AMANI guys.

Why that has happened..i think WSR has outsmarted Uhuru given Mudavadi/Wamalwa would be his opponents in the future...but the beneficiary is Raila..

2017 is really difficult to predict but the main actors now will remain Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo and Wetangula; then you have spoilers/enablers like Madvd/Wamalwa/IR/anyone else.

I agree with a few amendments. We have been studying Western thoroughly as it is the next big thing after RVs showing in 2007 and 2013:

1. This time there is a winning formula in Western. Busia has always been Raila/ ODM territory so it will remain so regardless of any games TNA might play with Ababu Namwamba; Bungoma is now firmly behind Wetangula thanks to TNA trying to meddle and impose Musikari Kombo and Eugene. This extends deep in to Trans Nzoia where Eugene will have a choice play ball or sink with MaDVD;

2. Western comes in two pieces: Busia (Teso) - Bungoma (Tans Nzoia) and Kakamega - Vihiga. They largely vote as blocks. Historically Northern Kakamega has tended to join the Busia-Bungoma block (1992, 97 and 2002) while Vihiga and Southern Kakamega has voted as a block. Until 2007, the two blocks were mutually exclusive in their voting preferences. The reason was simple: in a country where voters are influenced by demagogues, Southern Kakamega never had a charismatic leader except for a brief period in 1992 when Shikuku came to the fore. But his influence did not reach Vihiga where KANU reclaimed three seats and eventually took the one from the Opposition (FORD Asili).

3. The rise of both Khalwale and Wetangula has changed the picture. While Wetangula has solidified his hold on Bungoma and Busia, Khalwale has spread his influence deep in to Vihiga and has practically annihilated MaDVD. Thanks to Khalwale, MaDVD was able to get some votes in his home county and won two seats including the Senate. Even then ODM won the majority presidential votes in Vihiga. Now Khalwale is in CORD and he speaks the language the common man understands. While MaDVD is opposing more money to the County, his people, including the governor are supporting.

[Omollo]

GEMA's problem is being stuck in the 60s thinking. They did not learn a thing from Moi.

Anybody can be loyal to any organization regardless of his tribe. The basic requirement is that he "invests" in the organization to the extent that he can hang with the rest. That is why Mafias thrive;

2. The old and tired tactic of tribal appointments do not help. Coups are no longer that easy and can fail if civil society is strong. So such tribalism can only feed corruption - which so far is the biggest enemy of the jubilee agenda.

3. Failing to line up Kikuyus in public positions would not prevent fanatical support of Uhuru come any elections. He should have concentrated on cultivating non Kikuyus. Moi spent most of his harambee time in Central not because he was stupid to imagine they would love him (Raila style) but because prior to 1992 it was appeasement and after containment (1992 - 2002).

Agreed. I think the areas to watch now is Luhya. If the status quo hold; CORD will now be neck to neck with Jubilee; If i was to do OKOA MOAS (let assume Jubilee hold); i see 50-50; AMANI 4% has basically gone to CORD.

We might be see that plays out in the referendum.

Jubilee has basically intentional or not mismanaged AMANI; they've made MaDVD and Wamalwa the laughing stock and an embarrassment of luhyas who supported them by leaving them in the cold; I think they should have given Wamalwa and Mudavadi cabinet positions by now. It might to too little too late to appease AMANI guys.

Why that has happened..i think WSR has outsmarted Uhuru given Mudavadi/Wamalwa would be his opponents in the future...but the beneficiary is Raila..

2017 is really difficult to predict but the main actors now will remain Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo and Wetangula; then you have spoilers/enablers like Madvd/Wamalwa/IR/anyone else.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Why would Ruto be concerned with Mudavadi?  Even though kamwana does not care about the law, he can't fire him. 

I think they have the hustler on something else to keep him in line. 

I can't quite put a finger on it; but a real or trumped court case would not be far fetched.  The hustler has exposed himself quite a bit in his political rise.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,

The referendum if it comes to it will give us insight into 2017. I see Jubilee losing the referendum. That will scare them shitless and we will see very interesting times ahead.

[gout]

about ruto's slippery grip .. have noted that there is nobody to defend him from raila attacks on the harambee millions...billions ..looks raila has gotten a safe punching bag to keep him relevant.....

[Omollo]

Omollo,

The referendum if it comes to it will give us insight into 2017. I see Jubilee losing the referendum. That will scare them shitless and we will see very interesting times ahead.

Mutahi Ngunyi is telling them that losing the referendum will somehow help Jitoto win 2017 even without WSR. I heard of it recently and nearly dropped dead with laughter.

[machoman]

Is WSR proganda machinery sleeping?

[Kichwa Mbaya]

Windy City, my very sentiments, WSR behavior does not add up.  Why does he feel beholden to Gema while he has a loyal following who has always been pro-devolution.  Why is he sacrificing that for Kamwana while he knows he is nothing without the full support of kaleo nation. Something does not add up.

Why would Ruto be concerned with Mudavadi?  Even though kamwana does not care about the law, he can't fire him. 

I think they have the hustler on something else to keep him in line. 

I can't quite put a finger on it; but a real or trumped court case would not be far fetched.  The hustler has exposed himself quite a bit in his political rise.

[MOON Ki]

Ruto's problem is a very simple one, but there's not much he can do about it at the moment; they've got him by the small ones.   If you are a man, think of a gentle but firm grip on the family jewels and what a hard squeeze would feel like.

Certain people, using GoK machinery, collected the ICC evidence against him and also lined up the witnesses.   Once Jubilee won, it was necessary that the witnesses suddenly "develop a conscience", "see the light", "recant and withdraw", etc.    And that happened.  But, if necessary, the witnesses can be made to go "in reverse" at any time, even if they have already testified.   Also, the Kenyan courts could suddenly decide to make a final decision in the Barasa case and send him off to sing at the Hague.

So until the ICC case is concluded Ruto has to be a very good, well-behaved boy: If Uhuru is coming or going, be at JKIA and smile meekly; problems with teachers or whatever ... handle them; The Prince is hangover ... step up and attend the meetings; RV getting a stick up its whatever ...take it with a smile.

[RV Pundit]

Precisely. Something just doesn't add up. Anyway Ruto knows his biggest enemy is Raila not Kamwana. Raila has refused to be buried and is re-emerging from the death.

That mean WSR has to rethink strategy. Politician should realize in 2017..nearly 10yrs from 2009 census...demographics would have changed..and GEMA machine will be strutting. I just compared Kalenjin to Kikuyu elected mps ( good indicator of electoral votes after const were realigned)..and it just 43-versus 51...or in percentage terms..kalenjin are 12.5% of 290 mps...versus kikuyu 15.3%...Uhuru is only competitive in meru+embu+tharaka..Ruto can easily undo that by courting and retaining MATUSA constituency....

Most folks are still stuck up in what is now GEMA myth of political dominance. Kikuyu pop by 2017 will be about 15% of kenya. You can just court Luhyas who are about the same number albeit disunited.

And by 2022...Ruto will discover GEMA combined will not take him anywhere....kikuyu population would have dropped to less than kalenjin then..2009 (17.5%)...by 2019...it will be 15% (assuming the last 30yrs regression)...by 2022...13%. In the meantime somalis will probably be equal to Kambas.

That is the nature of demographics..in most of 19th century...the maasai were the most populous tribe in kenya..now it's a pale shadow of itself.

Windy City, my very sentiments, WSR behavior does not add up.  Why does he feel beholden to Gema while he has a loyal following who has always been pro-devolution.  Why is he sacrificing that for Kamwana while he knows he is nothing without the full support of kaleo nation. Something does not add up.

[Omollo]

I get you. However that approach by WSR is bound to fail. GEMA decided to "retire" him as soon as Jitoto was in office so that there is one "center of power". So they can use witnesses or engineer a criminal land case against him - the outcome will be the same. What he needs to know is that a man on death row lives from day to day but will eventually face his judgement. He can fight it now or wait for it to hit him.
 

Ruto's problem is a very simple one, but there's not much he can do about it at the moment; they've got him by the small ones.   If you are a man, think of a gentle but firm grip on the family jewels and what a hard squeeze would feel like.

Certain people, using GoK machinery, collected the ICC evidence against him and also lined up the witnesses.   Once Jubilee won, it was necessary that the witnesses suddenly "develop a conscience", "see the light", "recant and withdraw", etc.    And that happened.  But, if necessary, the witnesses can be made to go "in reverse" at any time, even if they have already testified.   Also, the Kenyan courts could suddenly decide to make a final decision in the Barasa case and send him off to sing at the Hague.

So until the ICC case is concluded Ruto has to be a very good, well-behaved boy: If Uhuru is coming or going, be at JKIA and smile meekly; problems with teachers or whatever ... handle them; The Prince is hangover ... step up and attend the meetings; RV getting a stick up its whatever ...take it with a smile.

[Omollo]

Pundit

Examine Kakamega and Kiambu. Why is there such a huge difference in voter registration? Hint: Go to the Registration of persons and examine the numbers of those waiting for ID cards in both areas. That is why I have no time for Otieno Kajwang.

[RV Pundit]

Your or moonki theory simply has no basis.ICC train left the station long time ago and Keraiko is the DPP (not gema or uhuru) with Kimaiyo as Police chief...Githu is just a gov lawyer..and there is really no criminal land case you can conjure against Ruto now. In short you theory is unfounded.

I think Ruto has simply decided to eat. I think they've found a working eating arrangement. There has to be some grand corruption going on.....and both sides are busy gorging kenya.

Heck that only time our politician can agree...when everyone is busy eating.

I get you. However that approach by WSR is bound to fail. GEMA decided to "retire" him as soon as Jitoto was in office so that there is one "center of power". So they can use witnesses or engineer a criminal land case against him - the outcome will be the same. What he needs to know is that a man on death row lives from day to day but will eventually face his judgement. He can fight it now or wait for it to hit him.

[RV Pundit]

That could a factor but ID acquisition everywhere is straight forward.

Well maybe most kakamega folks are under 18yrs..and are not eligible to vote. There are few kids in central...due to contraceptive use...but more adults from the pop explosion of the 60s and 70s. Luhya and Kalenjin pop explosion started in 80s and 90s....so maybe we will start seeing more kakamega folks registering.

Luos lost a decade to hiv/aids and related illness...they've had a nearly flat growth i think.

Somali and northern kenya baby boom  started in 2000s..end of shiftas and improving security/nutrition/medicine...and it will take another decade before those many somali kids mature to adults.

Pundit

Examine Kakamega and Kiambu. Why is there such a huge difference in voter registration? Hint: Go to the Registration of persons and examine the numbers of those waiting for ID cards in both areas. That is why I have no time for Otieno Kajwang.