Ruto has won kikuyu hearts and minds ..robina

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

But honestly isn't the fight at the moment in Mt. Kenya to get Hustler to Number 1?

As long as Hustler is number 2, sure.

No.  Of course not.   

[Kichwa]

There are also many Kenyans who do not want to take a chance with Ruto in power. Do not worry about the hoi polio, they will come along once they are confronted by their leaders with the inevitability.  Just like Ouru is now popular in KSM, Raila will soon be popular in central, once the Ruto hangover is cleared. I remember Njonjo saying that the hatred between kikuyus and luos was manufactured by them after the death of TJ and they needed Kikuyus to rally around Kenyattaa . Kalenjins loved RAO and Ruto changed that. Luos also loved Ruto but that changed to hatred.  After Kibaki tosha, Raila was considered a hero by kikuyus, then Kibaki and later Ouru, changed that.  Vile Vile, kikuyus can be taught to love Raila and hate Ruto. Such is Kenya's politics. The tribal leaders make the decision and not the people. Whatever Ouru and RAO are cooking will work because they control the levers of power. Ruto on the other hand will understand the misery of being out of government which RAO only understands too well.

1. Before people vote you into power there are things they like and dislike. Its like a cost benefit analysis.

2. When one gets to power, he may live to expectations or not. He may be better than expected or worse.

3. As a result they are good chunk of Kenyans who don't want to make guesswork with Raila in power. He may become the best. Or just be ordinary. Or just prove critics right.

4. Specifically on incitement when in power, surely we have good example of Moi. Who deliberately incited tribal clashes which later others took it to another level. There are a lot "incitement" and mischiefs one can do while in power.

So it isn't rational at all. It's a world wide phenomenon. There those who thought Trump would be like the worst or the best or he will keep his promises or not. And still there those who still hate him with a passion and would gladly have him killed. And those who view him as some kind of Messiah incarnate. It's the way it is.

Suppose Raila attains power, who and why would he incite?  I don't understand.  This must be the irrational part of the fear.

[Garliv]

Moi could have had other reasons like giving his support base an enemy so that they always with him. Maybe he genuinely wanted to claim lands. Maybe it was hate for "outsiders" in RV or so many other reasons. But we deduce with the facts available that his most likely reason was to consolidate his base and to also portray multipartism as evil.
For Raila i may recount all he has done or said or alleged to but i have no chance of convincing you. But when i try to be in your shoes I see denial and self convincing that Raila is faultless. And whoever hates or don't politically support him must be moved by tribalism or some phobia.
When i review Raila's history I can only give you story of Frog and Scorpion..

"Unable to swim, a scorpion asks a frog to carry him across a rising river.

The frog worries that the scorpion could sting him. The scorpion argues that if he stung the frog, the frog would sink and the scorpion would drown as well.

Convinced, the frog agrees and lets the scorpion climb on his back. Halfway across the river, the scorpion does in fact sting the frog, dooming them both.

“But why?” asks the frog."

“It’s just my nature,” says the scorpion.


In the present tense take Frog to be Uhuru.

Moi incited clashes to prove that multipartism is evil.  Raila's "incitement" is to end electoral theft.  To what end would a Raila in power incite any violence?

[Garliv]

This time ain't happening. It will not.

I have stated before, Kibaki/Raila government or alliance was tumultuous. No one sane would like such government again.
Ruto played his game differently and Mt. Kenya have maintained his support and he himself have not given Mt. Kenya any reason to abandon or complain. It's just Uhuru who for his own gain wants to dump him. He will do so alone.

Please please please explain ro any Kikuyu wherever they are that you want a parliamentary system and regional governments. See how many sides with you. It's not ALL about Raila. It's also what system of government Uhuru is trying to sell to Mt. Kenya that is even trouble some.

Get used to it, unless Ruto get into some accident and die, he's your incoming 5th President of the Republic of Kenya. That i can guarantee you.

There are also many Kenyans who do not want to take a chance with Ruto in power. Do not worry about the hoi polio, they will come along once they are confronted by their leaders with the inevitability.  Just like Ouru is now popular in KSM, Raila will soon be popular in central, once the Ruto hangover is cleared. I remember Njonjo saying that the hatred between kikuyus and luos was manufactured by them after the death of TJ and they needed Kikuyus to rally around Kenyattaa . Kalenjins loved RAO and Ruto changed that. Luos also loved Ruto but that changed to hatred.  After Kibaki tosha, Raila was considered a hero by kikuyus, then Kibaki and later Ouru, changed that.  Vile Vile, kikuyus can be taught to love Raila and hate Ruto. Such is Kenya's politics. The tribal leaders make the decision and not the people. Whatever Ouru and RAO are cooking will work because they control the levers of power. Ruto on the other hand will understand the misery of being out of government which RAO only understands too well.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Moi could have had other reasons like giving his support base an enemy so that they always with him. Maybe he genuinely wanted to claim lands. Maybe it was hate for "outsiders" in RV or so many other reasons. But we deduce with the facts available that his most likely reason was to consolidate his base and to also portray multipartism as evil.
For Raila i may recount all he has done or said or alleged to but i have no chance of convincing you. But when i try to be in your shoes I see denial and self convincing that Raila is faultless. And whoever hates or don't politically support him must be moved by tribalism or some phobia.
When i review Raila's history I can only give you story of Frog and Scorpion..

"Unable to swim, a scorpion asks a frog to carry him across a rising river.

The frog worries that the scorpion could sting him. The scorpion argues that if he stung the frog, the frog would sink and the scorpion would drown as well.

Convinced, the frog agrees and lets the scorpion climb on his back. Halfway across the river, the scorpion does in fact sting the frog, dooming them both.

“But why?” asks the frog."

“It’s just my nature,” says the scorpion.


In the present tense take Frog to be Uhuru.

Moi incited clashes to prove that multipartism is evil.  Raila's "incitement" is to end electoral theft.  To what end would a Raila in power incite any violence?

Yeah, it’s just Luo nature to be violent for no apparent reason.  I stand convinced 👍.

[Nefertiti]

Yup. This is well known complete with a certifiable body of knowledge. Ngunyi whipped a thesis on this stuff. The continuing exodus of Gema from Tangatanga is also public knowledge.

There are also many Kenyans who do not want to take a chance with Ruto in power. Do not worry about the hoi polio, they will come along once they are confronted by their leaders with the inevitability.  Just like Ouru is now popular in KSM, Raila will soon be popular in central, once the Ruto hangover is cleared. I remember Njonjo saying that the hatred between kikuyus and luos was manufactured by them after the death of TJ and they needed Kikuyus to rally around Kenyattaa . Kalenjins loved RAO and Ruto changed that. Luos also loved Ruto but that changed to hatred.  After Kibaki tosha, Raila was considered a hero by kikuyus, then Kibaki and later Ouru, changed that.  Vile Vile, kikuyus can be taught to love Raila and hate Ruto. Such is Kenya's politics. The tribal leaders make the decision and not the people. Whatever Ouru and RAO are cooking will work because they control the levers of power. Ruto on the other hand will understand the misery of being out of government which RAO only understands too well.

[Dear Mami]

Imagine the sheer chutzpah of comparing the mass murder of thousands and the ethnic cleasing of hundreds of thousands of your pple to the horror of public looters having the law unleashed on them and loosing merely the seats they don't deserve by everyone's account. . .

Ajabu kweli.

[Garliv]

Am beyond being  emotionally blackmailed as a tribalist just because one happen not to like Raila. It's a cheap psyop that won't work. You are the one playing tribal card for lack of anything substantial.

Raila is a public figure and his history in politics is just a matter of public knowledge. That he's always scheming or inciting disobedience even when he was PM is beyond dispute. If pointing out that is interpretated as a Luo thing, then it's you who has shallow tribal lenses. Not me.

Yeah, it’s just Luo nature to be violent for no apparent reason.  I stand convinced 👍.

[Garliv]

What the heck are you on about? In case you referring to Raila as blameless in 2007 PEV and Ruto the only guilty one, then you living in an alternate universe. You can convince yourself anything.

Imagine the sheer chutzpah of comparing the mass murder of thousands and the ethnic cleasing of hundreds of thousands of your pple to the horror of public looters having the law unleashed on them and loosing merely the seats they don't deserve by everyone's account. . .

Ajabu kweli.

[Garliv]

This is just an ordinary thesis widely believed. Sometimes it's true but other times not. Just be aware that it works among the four big tribes. It doesn't even work among Luhyas. So how the rest roped in?

Obama became the First African American to be US President. Yet US is well known for its race issues and discrimination against Blacks. And Muslims. And several other minorities. Yet Obama won the Presidential election twice in a White Majority US. There are several theories why and how he did it.
But for seek of this argument let me state one thing i noticed about it is that Obama never played race card. He never tried to guilt the whites. He didn't seem bothered by race theory that he couldn't do it. He just played his politics and presented himself as himself not as black and not as someone discriminated against. He was just Obama.
Am not comparing Ruto with Obama or vice versa but my aim is to highlight absurdity of this tribal loyalty theory. Ruto has not played tribal card with Kikuyus. He has presented himself as himself. He has played his politics and he has stuck to the Jubilee deal without self praise or rancour or complains. All about tribal clashes were addressed during Nakuru reconciliation meetings and he has stuck to that without much fanfare or dwelling on it. Yes, he has also heard (and maybe seen) that Kikuyus always vote their own but that has not bothered him and he has not made big deal about it.
That quality is, chiefly, what has made Mt. Kenya appreciate him and judge him as a person on his own (not as Kalenjin or someone always demanding "debt"). And majority has liked him.

Uhuru can scheme all what he likes with Raila but i guarantee you Mt. Kenya will not support him just because he himself will be PM. He has nothing to convince people with but his own greed to keep power.

Finally, anyone who thinks and believe that Raila just want "ceremonial President" need their IQ revisited or their brains operated on for there must be something wrong. Very wrong.

Yup. This is well known complete with a certifiable body of knowledge. Ngunyi whipped a thesis on this stuff. The continuing exodus of Gema from Tangatanga is also public knowledge.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Imagine the sheer chutzpah of comparing the mass murder of thousands and the ethnic cleasing of hundreds of thousands of your pple to the horror of public looters having the law unleashed on them and loosing merely the seats they don't deserve by everyone's account. . .

Ajabu kweli.

I think for some, the real fear of BBI is the unraveling of a tribal configuration of politics that they like.  Rutophilia would become Rutophobia, on a dime, had Uhuruto plans remained on course.  That is as clear as day, in an otherwise very confusing political space.

[RV Pundit]

Kikuyus are the kingmakers of 2022.To win in 2022 one has to find a way to endear themselves to them.Raila things he has to make Uhuru happy with a deal he cannot refuse.Ruto although not averse to making a new deal with Uhuru is keen to cash on the last promisory note.The kikuyus are Keen to finally pay back.

[Nefertiti]

I think for some, the real fear of BBI is the unraveling of a tribal configuration of politics that they like.  Rutophilia would become Rutophobia, on a dime, had Uhuruto plans remained on course.  That is as clear as day, in an otherwise very confusing political space.

Uh? I don't get. Rutophobia, Rutophilia...?

[Nefertiti]

Garliv's and your prediction of Gema dumping Uhuru for Ruto is unprecedented and not backed by the evidence. And the plain lies about chiefs vetting raia you can't prove. We could have a thread on the defections from Ruto to Uhuru in Gema... the numbers are that high.

Kikuyus are the kingmakers of 2022.To win in 2022 one has to find a way to endear themselves to them.Raila things he has to make Uhuru happy with a deal he cannot refuse.Ruto although not averse to making a new deal with Uhuru is keen to cash on the last promisory note.The kikuyus are Keen to finally pay back.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I think for some, the real fear of BBI is the unraveling of a tribal configuration of politics that they like.  Rutophilia would become Rutophobia, on a dime, had Uhuruto plans remained on course.  That is as clear as day, in an otherwise very confusing political space.

Uh? I don't get. Rutophobia, Rutophilia...?

There is a section of GEMA that like Ruto.  But I think they only like him in so far as they can use him as a cudgel against Raila.  I think that changes to dislike, if things were to align for him, such as consummation of Uhuruto pact.  BBI has sown real confusion, certainly in Jubilee, but also the country at large.

[Nefertiti]

I think for some, the real fear of BBI is the unraveling of a tribal configuration of politics that they like.  Rutophilia would become Rutophobia, on a dime, had Uhuruto plans remained on course.  That is as clear as day, in an otherwise very confusing political space.

Uh? I don't get. Rutophobia, Rutophilia...?

There is a section of GEMA that like Ruto.  But I think they only like him in so far as they can use him as a cudgel against Raila.  I think that changes to dislike, if things were to align for him, such as consummation of Uhuruto pact.  BBI has sown real confusion, certainly in Jubilee, but also the country at large.

So easy to tell them apart. They insist Raila is more responsible for PEV than the blokes actually prosecuted for it.

[RV Pundit]

You're still waiting for video evidence so you can accept evidence from NTV?. You're something. Is it mental illness or sheer desperation? or both.

GEMA refused to board MV Raila and all it's associated with vehicles(BBI, Handshake, ODM, Parliamentary, Executive PM).GEMA has a deal with Ruto they are keen on repaying.

That leaves us with the little matter of Uhuru - whom you reckon wants to continue (still conjecture ) as Executive PM and the guys around OP (like Matiangi) who are working on their own succession plan (Hint: they know the boss is retiring).

Will Uhuru go for BBI 2.0? We don't know. If I were him - I wouldn't have wasted the golden opportunity in BBI 1.0 - and then go the long route. It doesn't make sense.It also doesn't make sense to me that Uhuru will go for Ex PM - from being PORK. That level of desperation cannot come from a Kenyatta.

What makes sense is Uhuru is trying to loot as much as he can (Moi did this in 1996 & 2001) before he retires. He also doesn't want to become lame-duck. Therefore his anger - which seems restricted to GEMA - is on folks planning his succession while he is "alive".

It's kinda like my family situation now. My father is, of course, terminal ill - and has basically written a will - but I don't think he would like anybody planning the future without him when he is alive.

Bottom line: NOBODY KNOWS UHURU GAMEPLAN.

What we know for a fact is that Raila got SHOCKED BY BBI 1.0 and is trying a fightback to sneak in parliamentary & executive PM proposals that were "rejected" by Kenyans who wasted their time to go to BBI 1.0.

I think the fight-back is about to die - because after running around NASA strongholds - he has to sell BBI 2.0 (not BBI 1.0) to a hostile crowd at the center of the country - I guess we resume  BBI drama when Moi is happily buried in Kabarak.

And still, we don't know what BBI 2.0 is all about? Will we have another BOMAS where radical changes are proposed : ) That would be hilarious. Or will we have a strange constitutional amendment bill on strength of Raila public rallies? That would open BBI to many court challenges..it public money.

Of course, we understand Raiala(via Orengo & Opiyo) desperation to have a referendum done by April or June - now that everyone is onboard BBI (BBI 2.0?), but we know the Kenya constitution that Raila says he is the father, has a very elaborate procedure for amending it - and every day it becomes harder & harder to do it before 2022.

All in all, Ruto is still sleepwalking to PORK.

Who Knows the Shy Engineering Lecturer Kibicho could engineer a referendum via Chiefs and force IEBC to declared it passed. The late Moi who still sent shivers down spines in Kenya many could never do that.

Garliv's and your prediction of Gema dumping Uhuru for Ruto is unprecedented and not backed by the evidence. And the plain lies about chiefs vetting raia you can't prove. We could have a thread on the defections from Ruto to Uhuru in Gema... the numbers are that high.

[RV Pundit]

Update: I think a parliamentary system has been dropped. ODM Baba wants Executive PM ( a bribe for Uhuru) and Regional gov (a bribe to 2nd term governors) - and the Raila get the 'ceremonial' PORK for rewarding everyone. Ujanja 101.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit that's a lovely speech. We may not know Uhuru gameplan but we know what he has been doing to Ruto and Tangatanga. He just fired his groupie Waititu and runningmate Kiunjuri to top up all the other transgressions on the partnership. Matiang'i is now the de facto DP.

My take on Uhuru squandering BBI 1.0 was calculation of the level of acceptance in Mt Kenya. Because he has been focused on that specifically with the farmer goodies, roads, promoting Munyas and Kagwes, intimidation of Kurias, ejecting Tangatanga from his meetings, etc. Ruto had in fact properly lined up Kiunjuris et al to oppose BBI in Nov last year.

Has Uhuru gained traction in selling BBI 2.0 in Mt Kenya? Yes he has. I have shown you the videos of cheering crowds as he addresses them all over about BBI. While your evidence of hostility is a single tweet from NTV. Governors, senators, MPs, MCAs have lined up behind him in accelerating numbers. The proof of this is their elaborate pro-Handshake and -BBI stand: they voted Handshake at CoG secret ballot. They impeached Waititu. They attend BBI rallies. What other sign of traction do you want?

[RV Pundit]

That last part of Mt Kenya supporting BBI 2.0 is unsupported. BBI 1.0 has no problem. Is Raila selling BBI - NO - he is selling BBI 2.0. Is Uhuru and Mt Kenya talking about BBI 2.0 - NO.

Once again, when you have VIDEO (VERIFIED) of Mt Kenya supporting the PARLIAMENTARY system of gov with Executive PM - Kindly post. That seems
your obsession anyway.

Technically speaking nobody is opposed to BBI - apart from Robina and Raila. Everybody is onboard BBI - because those cosmetic changes don't alter the constitution 2010 - which was a document that took a lot of years to birth.Altering the constitution to become Parliamentary IS BIG BIG project. You're requesting for an overhaul of the constitution at price of a handshake

Pundit that's a lovely speech. We may not know Uhuru gameplan but we know what he has been doing to Ruto and Tangatanga. He just fired his groupie Waititu and runningmate Kiunjuri to top up all the other transgressions on the partnership. Matiang'i is now the de facto DP.

My take on Uhuru squandering BBI 1.0 was calculation of the level of acceptance in Mt Kenya. Because he has been focused on that specifically with the farmer goodies, roads, promoting Munyas and Kagwes, intimidation of Kurias, ejecting Tangatanga from his meetings, etc. Ruto had in fact properly lined up Kiunjuris et al to oppose BBI in Nov last year.

Has Uhuru gained traction in selling BBI 2.0 in Mt Kenya? Yes he has. I have shown you the videos of cheering crowds as he addresses them all over about BBI. While your evidence of hostility is a single tweet from NTV. Governors, senators, MPs, MCAs have lined up behind him in accelerating numbers. The proof of this is their elaborate pro-Handshake and -BBI stand: they voted Handshake at CoG secret ballot. They impeached Waititu. They attend BBI rallies. What other sign of traction do you want?