Mt kenya (central) propaganda that they deserve more constituencies is weird.

[RV Pundit]

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Andrew Ligale went there and found they actually didn't deserve any more. They threw a fit. They got the least increment.

The next review is next year - and many constituencies in Muranga & Nyeri - are going down  - unless Census was rigged.

Ndaragwa, Tetu, Mukurweini, Othaya and Kangema are some of the constituencies that risk losing their status for not meeting the population quota.Others are Mathioya. Add Lamu West.

Kalenjin are at risk in only 3 - , Marakwet East, Keiyo North, Mogotio.

Kiambu & Nairobi deserve more - but in few year Kiambu may no longer be a kikuyu majority constituency -  right now it's probably 70% kikuyus and 30% others.Another decade it will be Kajiado - maasai only in name.

[RV Pundit]

[Nefertiti]

[RV Pundit]

I see them really bitter with Somalis or even Turkana getting more money than them. I mean when you visit there - and see the kind of marginalisation those guys have gone through - you cannot attack them even if they get 100B. In fact the amount of money NGOS spend in there dwarfs the devolution money. The situation there is critical.

If you go with taxes - what is there to be taxed in Nyandarua or Kirinyanga or Nyeri or Muranga - nothing. You cannot tax peasant farmers. Outside few tea factories or one dairy - there is nothing.

Ultimate most taxes in Kenya will be generated from Nairobi(50%), Mombasa (20%) - then maybe Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, Nakuru, Kisumu and Uasin Gishu - these are counties with some  sizeable formal business to tax.

Like GEMA seem to have now 'forever' lost Nairobi governorship due their entitlement mentality - things will get worse if they incite the rest of the country.

[hk]

I see them really bitter with Somalis or even Turkana getting more money than them. I mean when you visit there - and see the kind of marginalisation those guys have gone through - you cannot attack them even if they get 100B. In fact the amount of money NGOS spend in there dwarfs the devolution money. The situation there is critical.

If you go with taxes - what is there to be taxed in Nyandarua or Kirinyanga or Nyeri or Muranga - nothing. You cannot tax peasant farmers. Outside few tea factories or one dairy - there is nothing.

Ultimate most taxes in Kenya will be generated from Nairobi(50%), Mombasa (20%) - then maybe Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, Nakuru, Kisumu and Uasin Gishu - these are counties with some  sizeable formal business to tax.

Like GEMA seem to have now 'forever' lost Nairobi governorship due their entitlement mentality - things will get worse if they incite the rest of the country.

If you just look at where companies are domiciled yes you'll end up with Nairobi collecting most of the taxes. Peasant in Nyandarua buy stuff which means they pay taxes, so companies should breakdown where they're getting their revenue from. Safaricom gets less than 20% of their revenue from Nairobi, which means the rest of the country is paying 80% of taxes safcom pays the government. 

[Nefertiti]

If you just look at where companies are domiciled yes you'll end up with Nairobi collecting most of the taxes. Peasant in Nyandarua buy stuff which means they pay taxes, so companies should breakdown where they're getting their revenue from. Safaricom gets less than 20% of their revenue from Nairobi, which means the rest of the country is paying 80% of taxes safcom pays the government.

This is why dictionary federalism is a bad idea. Because it conflates the granary and the shamba. Central taxation with 40% global standard revenue share is more practical. Devolution of more functions of course needs careful transition - the rumored NHS is inspired by the botched health experiment. Imagine what mess you would get in education or finance or security. We can experiment with regional blocks - REB - strictly economic and apolitical. Luo will happily partner with Nandi - or Tugen and Nyandarua sisal & pyrethrum - or Pokot and Turkana - if you eliminate political competition. Kenya is a "market economy" - capitalism - with full property rights. I don't know if the Mau evictions or what is making you raise this. PEV is criminal anarchy not socialism.

Demographics will always change and boundaries will be reviewed periodically. Equitable systems - parliamentary, revenues, equalization, etc - are better. Otherwise tomorrow Gema or even Kalenjin may be crying under Somali boot of majority tyranny.

[RV Pundit]

Well I am not sure - but I know likes of Safaricom, Kenya power - use to get 50% of their revenues or sales from Nairobi. The people in Nyandarua don't call tha much or use data that much- compared to Nairobi people. The same is replicated in Banking, Hotels, name any sector - beer consumption - name it.

If you just look at where companies are domiciled yes you'll end up with Nairobi collecting most of the taxes. Peasant in Nyandarua buy stuff which means they pay taxes, so companies should breakdown where they're getting their revenue from. Safaricom gets less than 20% of their revenue from Nairobi, which means the rest of the country is paying 80% of taxes safcom pays the government. 

[hk]

If you just look at where companies are domiciled yes you'll end up with Nairobi collecting most of the taxes. Peasant in Nyandarua buy stuff which means they pay taxes, so companies should breakdown where they're getting their revenue from. Safaricom gets less than 20% of their revenue from Nairobi, which means the rest of the country is paying 80% of taxes safcom pays the government.

This is why dictionary federalism is a bad idea. Because it conflates the granary and the shamba. Central taxation with 40% global standard revenue share is more practical. Devolution of more functions of course needs careful transition - the rumored NHS is inspired by the botched health experiment. Imagine what mess you would get in education or finance or security. We can experiment with regional blocks - REB - strictly economic and apolitical. Luo will happily partner with Nandi - or Tugen and Nyandarua sisal & pyrethrum - or Pokot and Turkana - if you eliminate political competition. Kenya is a "market economy" - capitalism - with full property rights. I don't know if the Mau evictions or what is making you raise this. PEV is criminal anarchy not socialism.

Demographics will always change and boundaries will be reviewed periodically. Equitable systems - parliamentary, revenues, equalization, etc - are better. Otherwise tomorrow Gema or even Kalenjin may be crying under Somali boot of majority tyranny.

Robina I bet you can come up with a blockchain type of application that can track tax payment even at the granular level of the end consumer, so division of revenue should be ease to crack.  Even if its that 40% revenue share can it be based on taxes derived from individual counties or regional blocks.  The essence of constitution making is to decide how to govern and manage resources. On the management of resources the national government should cede more control to federal units.
Kenya property rights only go up to 6ft the rest is government owned. Even wildlife is all owned by government even if its in your private property.

[hk]

Well I am not sure - but I know likes of Safaricom, Kenya power - use to get 50% of their revenues or sales from Nairobi. The people in Nyandarua don't call tha much or use data that much- compared to Nairobi people. The same is replicated in Banking, Hotels, name any sector - beer consumption - name it.

If you just look at where companies are domiciled yes you'll end up with Nairobi collecting most of the taxes. Peasant in Nyandarua buy stuff which means they pay taxes, so companies should breakdown where they're getting their revenue from. Safaricom gets less than 20% of their revenue from Nairobi, which means the rest of the country is paying 80% of taxes safcom pays the government. 

KPLC actually kiambu, machakos and kajiado almost consume as much power as Nairobi due to heavy industries located in those counties. Safaricom; nairobi population is about 4m and mostly urban poor. This people don't spend more than the rest of the country.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I remember looking up the details during the 2017 elections.  I thought they were underrepresented, going by only IEBC's numbers.  I didn't manage to find population details though.  So they may have more voters, but fewer people, which can happen when a larger portion of the population in one region are eligible to and/or register to vote.

[RV Pundit]

Yes they either register at greater numbers or have more adults than kids (demographic transition) - but I think central pop is abou 4.4m - Nyanza was 5.5m - but Central votes are more than Nyanza. Central had about the same population with Western (4.3M) as of 2009 - but registered votes are nearly twice Western (1.37M versus 2.9M). Interestingly Western had 0.9m household compared to 1.2M Household in Central...indicating smaller sized families in central & therefore more adults.

Anyway it appears out of 4.3m people in Central...adults are more than 3m...leaving less than 1.3m 1.3M divide 18..roughly 80K kids per year...looks incredible...some major rigging? Well it probably possible...because if you assume 1.2M household have at least 2 adults (father & mother) - that is already 2.4M votes...if you add few 18-25yrs old who are not married yet...that should add another 80*7...600k...so 3m is pretty much possible.

Looking at primary school enrollment - they had like 0.9-1m kids in 2009 (Yr6-Yr14). Tha leaves us with 0-5yr and 15-17yr olds..another  0.9-1m. Therefore as of 2009 - assuming 4.4m - kids should be around 2m - and adults 2.2m.
https://www.knbs.or.ke/download/primary-school-enrolment-by-county-2007-2012/

I remember looking up the details during the 2017 elections.  I thought they were underrepresented, going by only IEBC's numbers.  I didn't manage to find population details though.  So they may have more voters, but fewer people, which can happen when a larger portion of the population in one region are eligible to and/or register to vote.

[Kadudu]

IEBC numbers and population are two differnet entities. The voter registration in regime friendly areas is always inflated and the government officials in these areas go a long way to get the people to register for elections. On the other side, opposition leaning areas are neglected on purpose and even the new IDs are delayed on purpose. That is why on paper the Kalejin is the 2nd biggest ethnic block at the IEBC and not the Luhya who are more than 1 million more than the Kalejin.
Kikuyu politicians are just selfish. Now they are whinning and one would think they never had a chance to influence the voting system in the last 50 years. They know the presidency come 2022 is gone for a very long while and at best they will get the mkia.

I remember looking up the details during the 2017 elections.  I thought they were underrepresented, going by only IEBC's numbers.  I didn't manage to find population details though.  So they may have more voters, but fewer people, which can happen when a larger portion of the population in one region are eligible to and/or register to vote.

[RV Pundit]

Difference btw Kalenjin and Luhya was 0.3m. Kalenjin were 5m and Luhyas 5.3m in 2009.

IEBC numbers and population are two differnet entities. The voter registration in regime friendly areas is always inflated and the government officials in these areas go a long way to get the people to register for elections. On the other side, opposition leaning areas are neglected on purpose and even the new IDs are delayed on purpose. That is why on paper the Kalejin is the 2nd biggest ethnic block at the IEBC and not the Luhya who are more than 1 million more than the Kalejin.
Kikuyu politicians are just selfish. Now they are whinning and one would think they never had a chance to influence the voting system in the last 50 years. They know the presidency come 2022 is gone for a very long while and at best they will get the mkia.

[Nefertiti]

Robina I bet you can come up with a blockchain type of application that can track tax payment even at the granular level of the end consumer, so division of revenue should be ease to crack.  Even if its that 40% revenue share can it be based on taxes derived from individual counties or regional blocks.  The essence of constitution making is to decide how to govern and manage resources. On the management of resources the national government should cede more control to federal units.
Kenya property rights only go up to 6ft the rest is government owned. Even wildlife is all owned by government even if its in your private property.

Kenya is not ripe for wholesome federalism

1. Capacity - Pundit nails it with the question: why can't the counties manage health if they are ripe for taxes, fiscal policy, local laws and the majimbo full circle? Build the capacity first - then devolve progressively. This phasing can be codified in the constitution. Say more functions and funds are devolved based on independent county audits - by Winnie Mandela- or AU- led African Peer Review or such objective mechanism. Counties that are not ready must wait and the competition will see them nick it.

2. Politics - by this 40% progressive devolution I strictly mean ugatuzi. Not majimbo. Why? You raise property rights because as a Gema you are besieged by history and geopolitics. Yes i know, it is edged in there between the 6ft to your gold or rubies. Federal works in mature states - not divided banana republics or powder kegs like Zamunda. I mean barely 2 years ago "Pwani si Kenya" and "People's Republic of Kenya" rent the air. In the UK - they insist on devolution only - because the Northern Ireland secessionist IRA is our Shifta NFD and Wagalla fiesta. Devolution is fiscal autonomy. Majimbo is fiscal and political autonomy.

3. Graft - this goes without saying. It is not about systems - blockchain or IFMIS - when the board, management all the way to the auditor, messenger and tea girl collude. Thieves are smart and until you have some level of integrity and patriotism - restrict to the tried and tested setup where a few working checks and balances exist. I mean people steal votes - how about cash? Sonko and Kibwana are unable to account for a few billions. So what if you have a county KRA in Meru, Mombasa, Kisumu, Bomet, etc   - thoroughly audit the few council fees first and learn. Anchor the do's and don'ts in the law from the lessons.

[RV Pundit]

All good except counties getting 40% is a stretch.So I hear people talking about 40% of audited last year results and I know anyone who has done budgeting or been to our treasury is probably laughing. It's just not possible. Our parliament assign finances..and they normally settle on that figure...after examining everything.

Say our budget is 25 billion dollars. Debt repayment will take 1/3 of that. So what do you remain is really what KRA collects - about 20B dollars (ordinary taxes + AIA).  Now give teachers/education sector 3-4B. You remain with 15B. Give security Plus defence - another 2-3B dollars?. You're already around 10B.

Now some people lie to themselves that they can get 40% of 20B (total revenues)- 800B - from 300B (that parliament spend sleepless nights balancing) without loading of more functions.

Some jokes are not serious. Uhuru wherever he is must be laughing.

By stroke of a pen - counties will get minimum of 800B kshs - with same functions - heck with health even taken back from them and given to national gov.

Hiyo bhangi lazima ni mbichi. Only way counties can get 40% is for them to take education off national gov.

Kenya is not ripe for wholesome federalism

1. Capacity - Pundit nails it with the question: why can't the counties manage health if they are ripe for taxes, fiscal policy, local laws and the majimbo full circle? Build the capacity first - then devolve progressively. This phasing can be codified in the constitution. Say more functions are and funds are devolved based on independent county audits - by Winnie Mandela- or AU- led African Peer Review or such objective mechanism. Counties that are not ready must wait and the competition will see them nick it.

2. Politics - by this 40% progressive devolution I strictly mean ugatuzi. Not majimbo. Why? You raise property rights because as a Gema you are besieged by history and geopolitics. Yes i know, it is edged in there between the 6ft to your gold or rubies. Federal works in mature states - not divided banana republics or powder kegs like Zamunda. I mean barely 2 years ago "Pwani si Kenya" and "People's Republic of Kenya" rent the air. In the UK - they insist on devolution only - because the Northern Ireland secessionist IRA is our Shifta NFD and Wagalla fiesta. Devolution is fiscal autonomy. Majimbo is fiscal and political autonomy.

3. Graft - this goes without saying. It is not about systems - blockchain or IFMIS - when the board, management all the way to the auditor, messenger and tea girl collude. Thieves are smart and until you have some level of integrity and patriotism - restrict to the tried and tested setup where a few working checks and balances exist. I mean people steal votes - how about cash? Sonko and Kibwana are unable to account for a few billions. So what if you have a county KRA in Meru, Mombasa, Kisumu, Bomet, etc   - thoroughly audit the few council fees first and learn. Anchor the do's and don'ts in the law from the lessons.

[Nefertiti]

Yes they either register at greater numbers or have more adults than kids (demographic transition) - but I think central pop is abou 4.4m - Nyanza was 5.5m - but Central votes are more than Nyanza. Central had about the same population with Western (4.3M) as of 2009 - but registered votes are nearly twice Western (1.37M versus 2.9M). Interestingly Western had 0.9m household compared to 1.2M Household in Central...indicating smaller sized families in central & therefore more adults.

Anyway it appears out of 4.3m people in Central...adults are more than 3m...leaving less than 1.3m 1.3M divide 18..roughly 80K kids per year...looks incredible...some major rigging? Well it probably possible...because if you assume 1.2M household have at least 2 adults (father & mother) - that is already 2.4M votes...if you add few 18-25yrs old who are not married yet...that should add another 80*7...600k...so 3m is pretty much possible.

Looking at primary school enrollment - they had like 0.9-1m kids in 2009 (Yr6-Yr14). Tha leaves us with 0-5yr and 15-17yr olds..another  0.9-1m. Therefore as of 2009 - assuming 4.4m - kids should be around 2m - and adults 2.2m.
https://www.knbs.or.ke/download/primary-school-enrolment-by-county-2007-2012/

There is some top up same as Homabay or Kericho. Not unique to Central. Your 2009 math comes to 1.8-2m kids and 2.4-2.6m adults - out of 4.4m total. So you have a rough 2.5m adults but 3m voters. The 0.5m gap is reasonable due to diaspora in Nairobi that vote in Central.

[Kadudu]

Mind you Luhya are spread all over the country unlike the Kalejin who concentrate in RV. I doubt those figures and Luhyas fertile like no other people.

Difference btw Kalenjin and Luhya was 0.3m. Kalenjin were 5m and Luhyas 5.3m in 2009.

[Nefertiti]

I say progressive devolution of revenues and functions - not the stroke of a pen. Devolution is a complex process like democracy or marginalized ASALs or gender parity or any public or state affair. MPs burn the midnight oil because national functions are so many. Obviously you can't devolve money without functions - nor functions without capacity - so you must be progressive. Because you can't alter katiba every few years due to politics - it is better to codify phased devolution - with some mechanism as i propose. Start at maybe 25% in 5 years. Then 30% - based on objective assessment.

Democracy took 50 years - devolution is barely 10 yo. hk's full majimbo is a separate animal. This crawilng baby needs to walk next - before it can run.

All good except counties getting 40% is a stretch.So I hear people talking about 40% of audited last year results and I know anyone who has done budgeting or been to our treasury is probably laughing. It's just not possible. Our parliament assign finances..and they normally settle on that figure...after examining everything.

Say our budget is 25 billion dollars. Debt repayment will take 1/3 of that. So what do you remain is really what KRA collects - about 20B dollars (ordinary taxes + AIA).  Now give teachers/education sector 3-4B. You remain with 15B. Give security Plus defence - another 2-3B dollars?. You're already around 10B.

Now some people lie to themselves that they can get 40% of 20B (total revenues)- 800B - from 300B (that parliament spend sleepless nights balancing) without loading of more functions.

Some jokes are not serious. Uhuru wherever he is must be laughing.

By stroke of a pen - counties will get minimum of 800B kshs - with same functions - heck with health even taken back from them and given to national gov.

Hiyo bhangi lazima ni mbichi. Only way counties can get 40% is for them to take education off national gov.

[Nefertiti]

GoK should settle the new national debt on its own - post-2013 - from its own revenue share. Because counties must do the same. Only revenues and historical debt should be shared.

[RV Pundit]

Oparanya was in charge.Kalenjin esp kipsigis are also breeders.Dont be surprised if Kalenjin have not overtaken luhya.Youre spread because Western is congested.We have room for growth

Mind you Luhya are spread all over the country unlike the Kalejin who concentrate in RV. I doubt those figures and Luhyas fertile like no other people.

Difference btw Kalenjin and Luhya was 0.3m. Kalenjin were 5m and Luhyas 5.3m in 2009.