Tuju can't help Baba in Kibra

[sitting bull]

The breakdown of ethnic groups inhabiting Kibera and their gender-specific representation is[7] Luo: 34.9% (male), 35.4% (female); Luyia: 26.5% (male), 32.5% (female); Nubian: 11.6% (male), 9.1% (female); Kikuyu: 7.9% (male), 6.4% (female); Kamba: 7.5% (male), 10.3% (female); Kisii: 6.4% (male), 2.2% (female); Other: 5.2% (male), 4.1% (female)

@Robina .... from what I'm hearing  on the ground , langata sasa ni jikoni ya babu. Nixon korir should be very afraid!

Sent from my SM-G532F using Tapatalk

[RV Pundit]

Ruto alone did better than anybody has ever done in Kibra - a violent hotspot where Odinga has fortified it for 30yrs. And already Korir is Langata Mp - he came close in 2013 and finally nicked it. Mariga will very likely win it in 2022 if he stays the course - Okoth Imran is not Ken Okoth. Raila had to desperately assemble 'influencers" in his stronghold. That tell you Ruto is such a political force and Ruto won't rest. Mariga has to strategize better - knowing come 2022 - violence won't be there as everyone tries to get presidential election.

As for tribal maths for Kibra - a link or a source would help

The breakdown of ethnic groups inhabiting Kibera and their gender-specific representation is[7] Luo: 34.9% (male), 35.4% (female); Luyia: 26.5% (male), 32.5% (female); Nubian: 11.6% (male), 9.1% (female); Kikuyu: 7.9% (male), 6.4% (female); Kamba: 7.5% (male), 10.3% (female); Kisii: 6.4% (male), 2.2% (female); Other: 5.2% (male), 4.1% (female)

[RV Pundit]

@Robina .... from what I'm hearing  on the ground , langata sasa ni jikoni ya babu. Nixon korir should be very afraid!

Sent from my SM-G532F using Tapatalk

[sitting bull]

@Robina .... from what I'm hearing  on the ground , langata sasa ni jikoni ya babu. Nixon korir should be very afraid!

Sent from my SM-G532F using Tapatalk

Don't get me wrong im no Odm supporter. I only say as i see.
From the onset i knew without a doubt mariga was heading nowhere. He stood no chance.
 
Had wsr fronted someone like Martin judah oduor, we would have been singing a different tune today. Forget owalo he was a non-starter too ( infact owalo in dholuo means speaking nonsense).

You call kibra luo goons but i see it differently. They are more of defensive in nature partly due to the slaughter that was metted on them by nubians in the early nineties orchestrated by moi and kanu. Then is when they began mass trooping to kibra (or langata as it was known).

As for nixon korir, he must, and i say must ensure his voter base is intact by 2022, and import more voters or else atapokea kichapo similar (if not worse) to mariga

Sent from my SM-G532F using Tapatalk

[RV Pundit]

I don't think Ruto needed just to win - for the sake of winning - he has been studiously building a luhya firewall ( I think he has more MPs there now - than maDVD or Raila or Rectangular) - and this was just a way to incite a Luo-Luhya war - and it worked.Maraga got more Luhya votes than maDVD or Rectangular. Once Luhyas are out of ODM - then remain the little business of Joho in Mombasa - and Raila will be confined to history - with or without GEMA help.

Kibra goons - I remember the Nubian with box hair style - he might have died or is very old ---- but generally Kibra or Langata became important because of previous requirement that a presidential candidate must be elected MP - so most Luos trooped to Kibra - to protect Raila presidential bid. Kibra became a do or die. But now Ruto has bridged the firewall.

Now Nairobi demographics are changing. We will soon find out - from KNBS - and politicians will strategize.

Korir is an MP because Ruto discovered after 2009 census there were 150-200K kalenjins in Nairobi - if became a question of where  to  focus on - Embakasi East or Langata - and Langata won.

If we discover in this census that Kalenjin have doubled to 300-400k - it very possible - Kalenjin will go for two seats.

Politics is about art of possible. That is what makes Ruto very good - because he doesn't sit in his comfort zones - he is go-getter who is out campaigning from day 1 to last day.

Don't get me wrong im no Odm supporter. I only say as i see.
From the onset i knew without a doubt mariga was heading nowhere. He stood no chance.
 
Had wsr fronted someone like Martin judah oduor, we would have been singing a different tune today. Forget owalo he was a non-starter too ( infact owalo in dholuo means speaking nonsense).

You call kibra luo goons but i see it differently. They are more of defensive in nature partly due to the slaughter that was metted on them by nubians in the early nineties orchestrated by moi and kanu. Then is when they began mass trooping to kibra (or langata as it was known).

As for nixon korir, he must, and i say must ensure his voter base is intact by 2022, and import more voters or else atapokea kichapo similar (if not worse) to mariga

Sent from my SM-G532F using Tapatalk

[Nefertiti]

Kibra by tribe and gender - 2009 census


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibera

[Nefertiti]

Ruto alone did better than anybody has ever done in Kibra - a violent hotspot where Odinga has fortified it for 30yrs. And already Korir is Langata Mp - he came close in 2013 and finally nicked it. Mariga will very likely win it in 2022 if he stays the course - Okoth Imran is not Ken Okoth. Raila had to desperately assemble 'influencers" in his stronghold. That tell you Ruto is such a political force and Ruto won't rest. Mariga has to strategize better - knowing come 2022 - violence won't be there as everyone tries to get presidential election.

As for tribal maths for Kibra - a link or a source would help

Ruto did well by picking a Luhya football superstar, gazillion handouts, and NASA divisions. Those circumstances are hard to replicate. Still lost by landslide to Raila.

Korir - Jubilee was divided 2013 - with TNA and URP candidates. So ODM won despite NASA divisions. 2017 was solid Jubilee with divided NASA so Korir won narrowly. It a fluke - cause with this broken Jubilee he cannot nick it. If Jubilee and NASA were both united in Kibra - Imran would have got 78% like Ken. This was a better scenario for Ruto than it was for Raila.

In short - the circumstances nor outcome don't indicate any headway for Ruto - only his inability to mobilize influencers - and that money doesn't help much. Without the Uhuru machinery - he was unmasked - the invincible facade has broken.

[Nefertiti]

Of course Korir is not "Raila MP" - anymore than Simba Arati is Uhuru's MP. Raila is Kibra - Uhuru is Gatundu.

[Nefertiti]

NASA has cracked but so has Jubilee. Kibra has cemented Handshake - sorry I see no shred of victory for Ruto. He gambled - billing it as 2022 dry run - and lost. If NASA can't make up - Jubilee with BBI - need a graveyard.

My bet is - BBI will steamroll PM aka Uhuru 2.0. If Ruto oppose - Tanga Tanga will implode as first non-Gema back parliamentary - followed by Kikuyu stampede back to Uhuru corner.

I don't think Ruto needed just to win - for the sake of winning - he has been studiously building a luhya firewall ( I think he has more MPs there now - than maDVD or Raila or Rectangular) - and this was just a way to incite a Luo-Luhya war - and it worked.Maraga got more Luhya votes than maDVD or Rectangular. Once Luhyas are out of ODM - then remain the little business of Joho in Mombasa - and Raila will be confined to history - with or without GEMA help.

Kibra goons - I remember the Nubian with box hair style - he might have died or is very old ---- but generally Kibra or Langata became important because of previous requirement that a presidential candidate must be elected MP - so most Luos trooped to Kibra - to protect Raila presidential bid. Kibra became a do or die. But now Ruto has bridged the firewall.

Now Nairobi demographics are changing. We will soon find out - from KNBS - and politicians will strategize.

Korir is an MP because Ruto discovered after 2009 census there were 150-200K kalenjins in Nairobi - if became a question of where  to  focus on - Embakasi East or Langata - and Langata won.

If we discover in this census that Kalenjin have doubled to 300-400k - it very possible - Kalenjin will go for two seats.

Politics is about art of possible. That is what makes Ruto very good - because he doesn't sit in his comfort zones - he is go-getter who is out campaigning from day 1 to last day.

[RV Pundit]

Well Robina you'll never be objective as regards Ruto and this horse is flogged dead.Jubilee split is restricted to handful..less than 10 kikuyus MPs ..with 190 MPs firmly with zRuto.Next is BBI... red herring to me.. otherwise the focus ought to be boundary review for counties, constituencies and wardsm

[patel]

Time to downgrade Ruto 2022 stock. I would give him 37% chance of winning. Kibra by election has exposed him badly and left him Isolated. If Ruto want to remain viable and bankable he has to recalibrate otherwise he will keep sliding fast.

[RV Pundit]

As long as Ruto is facing Raila hevis going to be better devil for Jubilee that already won three elections.

[patel]

Jubilee has never won any presidential election. You take out rigging and all you have left is a paper tiger. Uhuru found out after last elections that he only had 35% support even after deploying Cambridge Analytica,  facebook and the pedophile old white man, I forget his name....with the economy tanking things are going to get tougher for Ruto or any other establishment candidate.

[RV Pundit]

Raila is establishment.. smart Ruto will blames all current woes on handshake confusion and Raila withcraft.ODM have been keen to paint Ruto as a powerless outsider in gov with two presidents..the people and the legit one.NARA redux where Raila carried all the baggage as Kibaki retired.Uhuru will retires..with Jubilee attributing all the bad things to accommodation of Raila.

[Nefertiti]

Those are moot stories - Uhuru 2.0 snuggles Gema - Ruto and Raila face off in non-Gema where we know who is king.

[RV Pundit]

For argument sake what is Raila plan B if Uhuru say retires as expected and as has vowed..or even dies like my sister from lung cancer

[Nefertiti]

If son of Jomo retire - cause he is tired of power smh  - Raila will string BBI/Handshake coalition. So Ruto vs Raila become status quo vs reforms. BBI has become a big rallying cry. With the package of inclusion, devolution, integrity, etc - huge appeal outside Kikuyu and Kalenjin.

As we have heard from Kamandas and Waigurus in few days we should be onto bill and signatures. Uhuru plays silent card - like Almighty British Monarch - but Ruto agitations and many indicators tell us the tide. BBI fanfare will provide a good look into his intentions. If he hold big party with Waigurus, Johos and ambassadors it game on. If he's lukewarm and mute as Mariga endorsement  we know Babu is in trouble.

[RV Pundit]

Right we will soon know.Its approaching 2022 and cards cannot be hidden forever

[GeeMail]

Ruto alone did better than anybody has ever done in Kibra - a violent hotspot where Odinga has fortified it for 30yrs. And already Korir is Langata Mp - he came close in 2013 and finally nicked it. Mariga will very likely win it in 2022 if he stays the course - Okoth Imran is not Ken Okoth. Raila had to desperately assemble 'influencers" in his stronghold. That tell you Ruto is such a political force and Ruto won't rest. Mariga has to strategize better - knowing come 2022 - violence won't be there as everyone tries to get presidential election.

As for tribal maths for Kibra - a link or a source would help

Ruto did well by picking a Luhya football superstar, gazillion handouts, and NASA divisions. Those circumstances are hard to replicate. Still lost by landslide to Raila.

Korir - Jubilee was divided 2013 - with TNA and URP candidates. So ODM won despite NASA divisions. 2017 was solid Jubilee with divided NASA so Korir won narrowly. It a fluke - cause with this broken Jubilee he cannot nick it. If Jubilee and NASA were both united in Kibra - Imran would have got 78% like Ken. This was a better scenario for Ruto than it was for Raila.

In short - the circumstances nor outcome don't indicate any headway for Ruto - only his inability to mobilize influencers - and that money doesn't help much. Without the Uhuru machinery - he was unmasked - the invincible facade has broken.

I thought someone would say the very obvious thing that Nixon Korir was rigged in in Langata like rigging also happened higher up. Stop wasting time with garbled punditology.

[Nefertiti]

I thought someone would say the very obvious thing that Nixon Korir was rigged in in Langata like rigging also happened higher up. Stop wasting time with garbled punditology.

Own your opinion, you yahoo!