Why Kenya's 6.3% GDP growth is voodoo

[RV Pundit]

I think you're misquoting me. Kenya will become developed in 2050 - not in 50yrs - but in 30yrs. Kenya will join the proper middle class (like South Africa) in around 2032 when Ruto finishes his 2nd term (GDP will be around 300-400B dollars against a population of around 60M then).

WB/IMF define the terms here
Threshold   GNI/Capita (current US$)
Low-income   < 995
Lower-middle income   996 - 3,895 - Kenya is here now - GDP per capita around 2,000 now.
Upper-middle income   3,896 - 12,055
High-income   > 12,055

My projection is that Kenya GDP will be around 150B - in 2023 against pop of 52M  - around a GDP per capita slightly shy of 3,000.

Kenya will join upper middle class when it get to GDP of possibly 200-250B dollars & pop of 57m -by 2027 (3,900 usd threshold) - and definitely by 2030 it's GDP per capita will be around 5,000 -(GDP greater than 300M for pop of 60M).

By 2040 - Kenya GDP will be around 1 trillion dollars then with a population of 65-70m - Kenya gdp per capita will be around 10-12k - at the cusp of a developed country.

By 2050 - Kenya GDP may well be around 1.5 trillion dollars with a population of 75-80m - comfortably a developed high-income country.

The reason why this will happen - increasing economic growth rate and rapidly declining population growth - meaning more wealth is being created.

About economic development, I might be wrong about Ruto - but you're wrong to state "Kenya we are on the cusp of a revolution" or "we are on the verge of prosperity". No we are not. You acknowledged in the past that it will take 50-100 years to rise to developed market status. The "cusp" or leapfrog and 50-100 years long wait can't be true at the same time.

[Nefertiti]

So you mean you admire the brilliance of young Emilio. That's different from "supporting" - cause you cannot say you support TJ Mboya or JJ Kariuki after the fact. Ruto is no doubt gifted - we merely disagree what he is gifted in. By me he uses his exceptional ability to do more evil than good. To you he is a do-gooder with a few rough edges.

I don't need to live in 70s to know Kibaki was brilliant. I grew up in 90s (became politically aware) and my father was big kibaki supporter - I think in 92 & 97 - the 3 kibaki votes got in our entire constituency - were definitely from my family.I noticed Ruto brilliance when I was at UON - in the sunset of Moi. I thought anybody who could boot Biwwott & grp from the kitchen cabinet was some serious talent - and obviously by now - everyone knows Ruto is a gifted politician.

[Nefertiti]

Yes the big factor is demographics. The demographic revolution is a natural force that can only be squandered by corruption. Like Nigeria has done - big highly educated populace but super corrupt - not even the Cardinal got a single genuine document. Nigeria growth has been stalled by graft and instability - the latter largely stems from the former. We also need to dispense the "diaspora remittance" fallacy - which is a big brain-drain. Kenya needs to nurture, preserve, attract and retain quality manpower - as we invest more and more in higher education and research.

I think you're misquoting me. Kenya will become developed in 2050 - not in 50yrs - but in 30yrs. Kenya will join the proper middle class (like South Africa) in around 2032 when Ruto finishes his 2nd term (GDP will be around 300-400B dollars against a population of around 60M then).

WB/IMF define the terms here
Threshold   GNI/Capita (current US$)
Low-income   < 995
Lower-middle income   996 - 3,895 - Kenya is here now - GDP per capita around 2,000 now.
Upper-middle income   3,896 - 12,055
High-income   > 12,055

My projection is that Kenya GDP will be around 150B - in 2023 against pop of 52M  - around a GDP per capita slightly shy of 3,000.

Kenya will join upper middle class when it get to GDP of possibly 200-250B dollars & pop of 57m -by 2027 (3,900 usd threshold) - and definitely by 2030 it's GDP per capita will be around 5,000 -(GDP greater than 300M for pop of 60M).

By 2040 - Kenya GDP will be around 1 trillion dollars then with a population of 65-70m - Kenya gdp per capita will be around 10-12k - at the cusp of a developed country.

By 2050 - Kenya GDP may well be around 1.5 trillion dollars with a population of 75-80m - comfortably a developed high-income country.

The reason why this will happen - increasing economic growth rate and rapidly declining population growth - meaning more wealth is being created.

[RV Pundit]

I supported kibaki seriously in 2002...I actually remember "stealing" some votes as ECK clerk from Kalenjin old men who were refusing to vote because Moi was not on the ballot.

So you mean you admire the brilliance of young Emilio. That's different from "supporting" - cause you cannot say you support TJ Mboya or JJ Kariuki after the fact. Ruto is no doubt gifted - we merely disagree what he is gifted in. By me he uses his exceptional ability to do more evil than good. To you he is a do-gooder with a few rough edges.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya is just about to hit the sweatspot in demographic - of average of 2 kids per woman (a reality only in RSA, Namibia & Bostwana in SSA) - we are now about 3 kids - and that will bring lots of great stuff. This is already happening in mt Kenya region. They are enjoying demographic dividend.For example we won't be building new schoools - but improving existing ones - we won't be build new hospitals - but improving the existing ones - we won't be expanding infrastructure - just maintaining it. With less well spaced kids - families will start to ramp up savings - for investments - and will improve their quality of living.

The only blot is ASAL regions - who are in 1960s - and we have to really make sure we don't abandon them,

Nigeria is big mess - don't even start me on them.

Yes the big factor is demographics. The demographic revolution is a natural force that can only be squandered by corruption. Like Nigeria has done - big highly educated populace but super corrupt - not even the Cardinal got a single genuine document. Nigeria growth has been stalled by graft and instability - the latter largely stems from the former. We also need to dispense the "diaspora remittance" fallacy - which is a big brain-drain. Kenya needs to nurture, preserve, attract and retain quality manpower - as we invest more and more in higher education and research.

[Nefertiti]

Gee I guess you're as corrupt as Ruto.

I supported kibaki seriously in 2002...I actually remember "stealing" some votes as ECK clerk from Kalenjin old men who were refusing to vote because Moi was not on the ballot.

[Nefertiti]

What's your take on diaspora remittance - is it a worthwhile return? I see the brain drain as a big loss - cause the Green Card "lottery" is rigged to mop the best. China has her own Thousand Talents or something - that Trump's been whinging about.

Kenya is just about to hit the sweatspot in demographic - of average of 2 kids per woman (a reality only in RSA, Namibia & Bostwana in SSA) - we are now about 3 kids - and that will bring lots of great stuff. This is already happening in mt Kenya region. They are enjoying demographic dividend.For example we won't be building new schoools - but improving existing ones - we won't be build new hospitals - but improving the existing ones - we won't be expanding infrastructure - just maintaining it. With less well spaced kids - families will start to ramp up savings - for investments - and will improve their quality of living.

The only blot is ASAL regions - who are in 1960s - and we have to really make sure we don't abandon them,

Nigeria is big mess - don't even start me on them.

[Nefertiti]

Lots of mathiness - conflation - hiding behind the forest of numbers. Expand this "Energy Demand" table 2005 to 2018. The Jubilee whirlwind connections are ghost meters - that never flipped the switch. Which backs my point in this thread - about voodoo growth unfelt on the ground - driven by misplaced oversupply of hard infra.

3X increase - is from 2013 - not annually - When Jubilee came - electricity connection was about 2.5m - now it about 6.5M accounts -

These are Kibaki electricity numbers - 2.5M customers consuming 1,300MW - with the installed capacity I think around 1,500mw.

And Jubile in six or so years has - taken it to 6.5M customers consuming twice about 2,700MW (nearly doubling it) - consumption has also doubled from 6,500 GWH to now  11,182.

In short Jubilee has done a great job in just six years - and in ten years when Uhuru hands the baton to Ruto - the picture will be very clear.

Yes Jubilee had targetted 5,000MW - but they are closer to 3,00MW now. Uhuru is just 2,000MW short - from achieving what NDii thought was impossible vision.

[RV Pundit]

So what led to the increase from 8,000 GWH (2013) to 11,000 GWH as of last year(2018). Are those 3,000 GHWS new demands ghost meters.You need to understand power consumers everywhere is dominated by few big customers (in kenya - I think about 600 customers consumers like 60% of power - these are big manufacturing and mining companies) - and rest of 6.5M consumers -consume very little.

I had rather someone aimed for 5,000MW and get 3,000 MW than aim for 3,000MW and get 2,000MW.

Besides the investment in power sector has been driven by private sector mostly....we need to copy that model over to roads (get toll & PP roads)

Lots of mathiness - conflation - hiding behind the forest of numbers. Expand this "Energy Demand" table 2005 to 2018. The Jubilee whirlwind connections are ghost meters - that never flipped the switch. Which backs my point in this thread - about voodoo growth unfelt on the ground - driven by misplaced oversupply of hard infra.

[RV Pundit]

Largely agreed - I don't mind if we were exporting maids to Saudi Arabia - but when we are exporting highly skilled workforce like nurses, doctors, engineers - then we are losing more than we are getting from the remittance. Remittance now is what 2.5B - from like 3m Kenyans out there - in GDP terms - it's like 2-3% - so it's very little cash.

What's your take on diaspora remittance - is it a worthwhile return? I see the brain drain as a big loss - cause the Green Card "lottery" is rigged to mop the best. China has her own Thousand Talents or something - that Trump's been whinging about.

[Nefertiti]

Largely agreed - I don't mind if we were exporting maids to Saudi Arabia - but when we are exporting highly skilled workforce like nurses, doctors, engineers - then we are losing more than we are getting from the remittance. Remittance now is what 2.5B - from like 3m Kenyans out there - in GDP terms - it's like 2-3% - so it's very little cash.

[Nefertiti]

Rotich flips more buggerbonds.


Kenya sells third Sh210bn Eurobond

Rotich says the money raised will be used to finance the budget and repay Sh75 billion 2014 Eurobond that is due to mature in June.

The growing deficit in the budget has left the government with fewer options to finance its ballooning expenditure and this has made borrowing one of its easiest ways to raise plug the hole.

https://mobile.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-sells-third-Sh210bn-Eurobond/1950106-5117296-2foagy/index.html

[RV Pundit]

It not more - it's refinancing the old one.

Rotich flips more buggerbonds.


Kenya sells third Sh210bn Eurobond

Rotich says the money raised will be used to finance the budget and repay Sh75 billion 2014 Eurobond that is due to mature in June.

The growing deficit in the budget has left the government with fewer options to finance its ballooning expenditure and this has made borrowing one of its easiest ways to raise plug the hole.

https://mobile.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-sells-third-Sh210bn-Eurobond/1950106-5117296-2foagy/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - here's GoK promoting the booming betting industry



Kenya to deport foreigners in betting

Dr Matiang'i said deportation orders will be issued to foreign investors who will be on the list forwarded to him by the Immigration.

https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/State-to-deport-foreign-investors-in-betting/1950946-5123378-h0x09/index.html

[vooke]

Pundit - here's GoK promoting the booming betting industry



Kenya to deport foreigners in betting

Dr Matiang'i said deportation orders will be issued to foreign investors who will be on the list forwarded to him by the Immigration.

https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/State-to-deport-foreign-investors-in-betting/1950946-5123378-h0x09/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - here's GoK promoting the booming betting industry



Kenya to deport foreigners in betting

Dr Matiang'i said deportation orders will be issued to foreign investors who will be on the list forwarded to him by the Immigration.

https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/State-to-deport-foreign-investors-in-betting/1950946-5123378-h0x09/index.html

It also means gambling is not an "industry" anymore than narcotics that Pundit can point out as evidence of growth outside the financial sector. We simply have a fake boom from sky-debt hard infra and the Fuliza, etc shylock vultures. The struggling low-income real estate with bursting slums shows real poverty. Folks need living wages. And who's better at creating jobs - GoK or the private sector? Then why mop the market of liquidity and starve SMEs to build rails to nowhere? This thread is about the hard infrastructure myth of voodoo growth.

[RV Pundit]

Sounds like Matianga and co are trying to steal Chinese and their betting machines. I don't think they can touch SportPesa - it's too big now for Matiangi.