Safaricom still cruising - with Fuliza see 45B transaction in 3 months

[RV Pundit]

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Fuliza the overdraft facility - may end the year - having lend 200B! The banking sector would struggle to lend that much annually. This is the power of tech and it's ability to leapfrog. The usual suspect in 2007 when M-PESA started were dismissing it as mose code tech.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-05-03-safaricoms-service-revenue-grows-to-sh240bn/

[Nefertiti]

That's OK but Safaricom potential is greatly UNDER-LEVERAGED. That company would sky-rocket if it embraced tech innovation. We can discuss the details.

[RV Pundit]

I would love to hear the details. I think it's hobbled by Vodafone - they cannot expand regionally - and secondly GOK - shareholding there is for treasury small dogs to ask for tenders and jobs.
Way forward is for GOK to sell it's 35% shareholding - and to somehow remove Vodafone stranglehold.

That's OK but Safaricom potential is greatly UNDER-LEVERAGED. That company would sky-rocket if it embraced tech innovation. We can discuss the details.

[Nefertiti]

Shareholding has little to do with it.. the Vodafone choke on M-pesa is one thing yes.

If you look closer you will see they have no LEVERAGE.. they need to change their mindset as simply "telecom" same way they broke the small box with mobile money. M-pesa has grown in one dimension - customer base - very organically, very slowly. Look at Ant Financial - if you got the Android or iOS app - nice features and worth 150B usd of course. M-pesa is 10B usd - 95% of Safcom value.

[Kadudu]

Safaricom has practically a monopoly in Kenya.
In Uganda MTN and Airtel have each around 45% of the market. In Tanzania Vodacom dominates with about 35%. In Kenya Safaricom has 65% of the market.
So why should Vadafone allow Safaricom to go rival its sister companies in Uganda and tanzania? Vodafone is very comfortable with the situation in Kenya.

I would love to hear the details. I think it's hobbled by Vodafone - they cannot expand regionally - and secondly GOK - shareholding there is for treasury small dogs to ask for tenders and jobs.
Way forward is for GOK to sell it's 35% shareholding - and to somehow remove Vodafone stranglehold.

[Nefertiti]

Safaricom has practically a monopoly in Kenya.
In Uganda MTN and Airtel have each around 45% of the market. In Tanzania Vodacom dominates with about 35%. In Kenya Safaricom has 65% of the market.
So why should Vadafone allow Safaricom to go rival its sister companies in Uganda and tanzania? Vodafone is very comfortable with the situation in Kenya.

True but they literally launch new tariffs and Kocho Kocho as "innovation" Until they have Mpesa.JS or such talent leverage they are going nowhere. Big techs have leveraged the factors of production by deploying platforms, VCs, etc.

[RV Pundit]

safaricom is telcom company; (think at &t); not a technology company.

[Nefertiti]

safaricom is telcom company; (think at &t); not a technology company.

That's almost shocking from you. They should spin off - Mpesa and other subs - like Alibaba has done with Ant, etc. LittleCab is a good model. Equity has Equitel as a sub - where they have 60% share - Dr Mwangi & Equity CFO sit on the board.

[Nefertiti]

You just got to admire SoftBank - that's how to grow - and not to box yourself into a sectoral player like "telecoms".

[Pragmatic]

You just got to admire SoftBank - that's how to grow - and not to box yourself into a sectoral player like "telecoms".

Robina... you are onto something. Someone is going to eat Safcom's lunch at some point. Its sheer market dominance is going to be its undoing. They are a behemoth (in Kenyan terms) who aren't using their advantage to create even solutions to solve problems (while making money). Today it is lazy and lacking in innovation and all they do is do silly things like kochoKocho for innovation. Short term thinking... The time they would have scaled and run away with spin-offs and as a real innovator with collaborations with local innovators and start-up all they did was lead you on, steal your IP and quash you (local entreprise). Obviously not having been the originators of the ideas, they couldn't bring to market fruition. A lot of lazy bums there.

It is a shame really, all that money they make, they can innovate a lot (literally afford to make mistakes until they get it).

[Nefertiti]

Robina... you are onto something. Someone is going to eat Safcom's lunch at some point. Its sheer market dominance is going to be its undoing. They are a behemoth (in Kenyan terms) who aren't using their advantage to create even solutions to solve problems (while making money). Today it is lazy and lacking in innovation and all they do is do silly things like kochoKocho for innovation. Short term thinking... The time they would have scaled and run away with spin-offs and as a real innovator with collaborations with local innovators and start-up all they did was lead you on, steal your IP and quash you (local entreprise). Obviously not having been the originators of the ideas, they couldn't bring to market fruition. A lot of lazy bums there.

It is a shame really, all that money they make, they can innovate a lot (literally afford to make mistakes until they get it).

I was interviewed for head of engineering in 2017 and almost threw up in their face. Some HR woman kept saying am too young to be head of eng I declined the offer. But what you note from the brief encounter is the boxing of innovation or engineering as "software" or "data science" - wanting to know a to z of labwork which of course is not possible by definition. They have a mental block that hardware or devices can only be created abroad. Sfc needs to create PLATFORMS - to leverage the global engineering pool - same way they have done with the distribution side - they need as many engineers as they have mpesa or airtime agents. They should have a solid platform - cloud, devices, OS, SDKs, app store, etc. Complete with Developer Conferences or Open Days. Like FB or Google or whoever - and firmly own the base - which can be spirited away anytime. Sitting ducks.

[Pragmatic]

Robina... you are onto something. Someone is going to eat Safcom's lunch at some point. Its sheer market dominance is going to be its undoing. They are a behemoth (in Kenyan terms) who aren't using their advantage to create even solutions to solve problems (while making money). Today it is lazy and lacking in innovation and all they do is do silly things like kochoKocho for innovation. Short term thinking... The time they would have scaled and run away with spin-offs and as a real innovator with collaborations with local innovators and start-up all they did was lead you on, steal your IP and quash you (local entreprise). Obviously not having been the originators of the ideas, they couldn't bring to market fruition. A lot of lazy bums there.

It is a shame really, all that money they make, they can innovate a lot (literally afford to make mistakes until they get it).

I was interviewed for head of engineering in 2017 and almost threw up in their face. Some HR woman kept saying am too young to be head of eng I declined the offer. But what you note from the brief encounter is the boxing of innovation or engineering as "software" or "data science" - wanting to know a to z of labwork which of course is not possible by definition. They have a mental block that hardware or devices can only be created abroad. Sfc needs to create PLATFORMS - to leverage the global engineering pool - same way they have done with the distribution side - they need as many engineers as they have mpesa or airtime agents. They should have a solid platform - cloud, devices, OS, SDKs, app store, etc. Complete with Developer Conferences or Open Days. Like FB or Google or whoever - and firmly own the base - which can be spirited away anytime. Sitting ducks.

Good you did... you would have just wasted away there. I figure you are thriving out there in Palo Alto. I always say that it isn't worth it to lose many brilliant minds like you to (a) dead end job at SFC when we could be out there creating ground breaking stuff. A very politicised environment too.. a lot of vested interests and folk protecting their turfs/jobs with a freaking buck-passing culture. I would say everyone wants to protect his/her overpaid job/s; especially for the senior chaps there. So they do no innovation there lest you don't get it right the first round (there goes your job!). All they do is to wait for you get through their doors with ideas and proceed to skim as much as possible from you.

Their current cloud infrastructure platform was a pitch deck from a team that i know which they copied complete with the go-to-market strategy. They haven't done any further growth around it from the original idea. Was a huge fight to get them to release their MPESA platform to API's and overall interoperability. It was always their stranglehold on the market and they didn't want to let go that dominance.

[Nefertiti]

The world is a village and already we see Google Loon, FB and SpaceX going cable-free internet. Satellite will kill the old school telco network of masts and heavy machines on generator all over. Net will beam for dirt cheap and with nothing - apart from a SIM Card - Sfc will go 10B to zero. The roaming and such telco nonsense is dying soon - as telco merge with internet - like VOIP and SMS has already done.

[Nefertiti]

Their current cloud infrastructure platform was a pitch deck from a team that i know which they copied complete with the go-to-market strategy. They haven't done any further growth around it from the original idea. Was a huge fight to get them to release their MPESA platform to API's and overall interoperability. It was always their stranglehold on the market and they didn't want to let go that dominance.

They are too incompetent to compete with AWS or Azure. I think it was a mistake to hire Bob - a PR guy to run a tech company. It's like how Oracle squandered it's enterprise software dominance with cloud. Now they are squirming and throwing tantrums as AWS and Azure sweep all the deals in cloud. They lost the Pentagon Jedi tender recently and it was comical - suing the GoUS. Old Ellison is loosing it - but he lost long ago as cloud then the Hadoops, MongoDBs, Cassandras and Auroras rolled out - as he snoozed in his private yacht.

[Pragmatic]

The world is a village and already we see Google Loon, FB and SpaceX going cable-free internet. Satellite will kill the old school telco network of masts and heavy machines on generator all over. Net will beam for dirt cheap and with nothing - apart from a SIM Card - Sfc will go 10B to zero. The roaming and such telco nonsense is dying soon - as telco merge with internet - like VOIP and SMS has already done.

Absolutely... i was amused with Pundit saying SFC is a telco. That is so yesterday...any one of these operators who see themselves as simply a pure-play telco is a seating duck; ready to be eaten for lunch. Needless to say, SFC with Mpesa is now more of a Financial Services (arguably the biggest Bank in Kenya by sheer turnover). With the re-birth of MVNO/MVNE's the business of merely providing voice or data services will have to be complemented by other businesses/services and platforms to survive. Need I say, Content is King, AI/Robotics, AR/VR and others are the new frontiers the likes of AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint are now battling in...

[Pragmatic]

Their current cloud infrastructure platform was a pitch deck from a team that i know which they copied complete with the go-to-market strategy. They haven't done any further growth around it from the original idea. Was a huge fight to get them to release their MPESA platform to API's and overall interoperability. It was always their stranglehold on the market and they didn't want to let go that dominance.

They are too incompetent to compete with AWS or Azure. I think it was a mistake to hire Bob - a PR guy to run a tech company. It's like how Oracle squandered it's enterprise software dominance with cloud. Now they are squirming and throwing tantrums as AWS and Azure sweep all the deals in cloud. They lost the Pentagon Jedi tender recently and it was comical - suing the GoUS. Old Ellison is loosing it - but he lost long ago as cloud then the Hadoops, MongoDBs, Cassandras and Auroras rolled out - as he snoozed in his private yacht.

Bob has done nothing except simply ride the wave. SFC was at a trajectory when he took over, he didn't need to do nothing. AWS has been a huge game-changer. Bezos seized the moment and ran away with it! AZURE was slow off the blocks but is now getting it going now. Oracle and Larry Ellis snoozed on the job and are now mostly whining. I first encountered Hadoop about 9 years ago and was very impressed with it. EMC was then one of the biggest early champions of Hadoop then others caught on. Big Data Datawarehousing/Business Intelligence seemed like greek then, now this is the real deal.... so i would add to my earlier point, Blockchain and Big Data is the new era.

[Nefertiti]

Absolutely... i was amused with Pundit saying SFC is a telco. That is so yesterday...any one of these operators who see themselves as simply a pure-play telco is a seating duck; ready to be eaten for lunch. Needless to say, SFC with Mpesa is now more of a Financial Services (arguably the biggest Bank in Kenya by sheer turnover). With the re-birth of MVNO/MVNE's the business of merely providing voice or data services will have to be complemented by other businesses/services and platforms to survive. Need I say, Content is King, AI/Robotics, AR/VR and others are the new frontiers the likes of AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint are now battling in...

If you're a Kenyan bank - simply invest BIG in tech - buy shares in Pesalink, poach tech big shots to digitize, open a Lab, etc. The point is - don't fret if you miss anything - noone has any monopoly of anything except just a lead. Equity went Equitel not just for mobile money - but mobile internet. They have their own platform - MVNO - and they can launch anything without anyone's greenlight. Eazzy Bank app is better than Mpesa app - last I checked - Equity will beat Sfc & KCB in time. Already they have integrated Paypal, Western Union, I think even Bitcoin. Dr Mwangi is smart - he has a very autonomous structure - MDs - lots of global talent. Check their top managers page - then the careers page - you can see the gap with likes of Sfc.

[Pragmatic]

Absolutely... i was amused with Pundit saying SFC is a telco. That is so yesterday...any one of these operators who see themselves as simply a pure-play telco is a seating duck; ready to be eaten for lunch. Needless to say, SFC with Mpesa is now more of a Financial Services (arguably the biggest Bank in Kenya by sheer turnover). With the re-birth of MVNO/MVNE's the business of merely providing voice or data services will have to be complemented by other businesses/services and platforms to survive. Need I say, Content is King, AI/Robotics, AR/VR and others are the new frontiers the likes of AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint are now battling in...

If you're a Kenyan bank - simply invest BIG in tech - buy shares in Pesalink, poach tech big shots to digitize, open a Lab, etc. The point is - don't fret if you miss anything - noone has any monopoly of anything except just a lead. Equity went Equitel not just for mobile money - but mobile internet. They have their own platform - MVNO - and they can launch anything without anyone's greenlight. Eazzy Bank app is better than Mpesa app - last I checked - Equity will beat Sfc & KCB in time. Already they have integrated Paypal, Western Union, I think even Bitcoin. Dr Mwangi is smart - he has a very autonomous structure - MDs - lots of global talent. Check their top managers page - then the careers page - you can see the gap with likes of Sfc.

Right on the money....!

[Nefertiti]

Bob has done nothing except simply ride the wave. SFC was at a trajectory when he took over, he didn't need to do nothing. AWS has been a huge game-changer. Bezos seized the moment and ran away with it! AZURE was slow off the blocks but is now getting it going now. Oracle and Larry Ellis snoozed on the job and are now mostly whining. I first encountered Hadoop about 9 years ago and was very impressed with it. EMC was then one of the biggest early champions of Hadoop then others caught on. Big Data Datawarehousing/Business Intelligence seemed like greek then, now this is the real deal.... so i would add to my earlier point, Blockchain and Big Data is the new era.

I think there is some hope with Alpha - the Sfc Lab - let's see who replaces Bob. I would simply buy a Github or such geek equivalent in Africa. No need to start from scratch - where others have mastered for years. Sfc is salvageable but the window is closing fast. Talent is what is sorely lacking at Sfc.

Hadoop launched 2011 - I know cause I tested the Beta at Sony as an intern. Oracle should ignore cloud - too late - focus on the future. Microsoft lost mobile but managed to catch up on cloud by looking ahead - Nadella is cloud guy. Apple droppes the ball by going for logistics guy Cook - they needed an innovator. Oracle needs fresh blood from AI world as the old Larry takes a back seat.

[RV Pundit]

Most kenyan companies don't have any global strategy - the best they can think about is East Africa and some now Africa. Safcom are in comfort zone with their dominance of kenya market.