Uhuru versus Ruto cold war continues

[RV Pundit]

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Kalenjin nation as always hunting like a pack of wild dogs whenever they feel someone wants to move their cheese -  this won't end nicely for both parties.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Gloves-off-as-Ruto-allies-hit-out-at-Uhuru/1064-5022362-h1v607/index.html

Waiting for theives to out each other.

Sudi to Uhuru.

"We will tell Kenyans the truth about your big companies and all that we know. You can not be branding others as thieves yet we know you are the greatest thieves," Sudi said.

[Pajero]

Ruto and his henchmen are playing right into the hands of GEMA,Looks like it will be messy,Ruto may as well forget kikuyu votes.

[RV Pundit]

Apart from Kamanda, Wambugu and Maoka - who are not really Uhuru men - I don't expect a strong rebuttal from GEMA land. It appears Uhuru is alone in this war with Ruto. GEMA don't want to be party to his misadventure with Raila. 

Therefore I expect Uhuru will crack under pressure and ran back to Jubilee pretty sooner than later.

If not we will have shouting match in Jubilee that will eventually break Jubilee apart - GEMA will need Raila's ODM to govern - and Ruto will look for anti-Raila - embittered folks like Weta+Madvd - to frustrate GOK.  We will have GEMA-Luo forces probably arraigned against Kamatus+Luhya all the way to 2012.

Kalonzo as always will try to pitia katiktati as other small tribes spread their risks.

Eventually the political war will spill into the streets - Njoroge will square with Rotich - at the usual epicenter. People will die or be evicted. There will be usual cry of genocide and human rights - and cycle continues.

Politicians will make peace. Ruto will work with Raila

Kenya politics.

Ruto and his henchmen are playing right into the hands of GEMA,Looks like it will be messy,Ruto may as well forget kikuyu votes.

[Pajero]

Ruto cannot match a combined force of Uhuru and Raila both in and out of parliament,you need to check your head checked.

[RV Pundit]

Says who? Ruto is running parliament - both houses as we speak. You see the problem is not my head - it's that you're stuck in the past - when Raila was BIG BOY - now he is old dog. Just ask Patel here . 

Start from ODM now - it has like 60Mps - about 35mps are Luos - about 20Mps are coast (more than half of those are with Ruto) - just one Kisii mp from Nairobi Arati whose seem to have gone mute - zero Mps in Bukusu land:) 1 Mp in Maasai land - and what are you left with?.The go to NASA - Jubilee may die - but everyone knows NASA IS DEAD AND BURIED. Wetangula and his few Bukusu mps don't want to hear Raila - Niether does MaDVD with his few Mps. Kalonzo is dealing with home insurgency - and is just being himself - blowing hot & cold - waiting for Raila to drop dead

Now look at Ruto - start from Nyanza - Ruto has maybe 10 mps there - very loyal to him.  Go to western - he probably has largest number of Mps loyal to him than MaDVD, Weta and Raila. In short in Jubilee - outside few in Kikuyu - majority are fiercely loyal to Ruto - Ruto made them -

You see while Raila has been sleeping - Ruto has been investing and building his network. Ruto while mere MP and facing ICC - grew URP from zero to 72mps!!!!!!! Then in 2017 - he unleashed his arsenal - and now control both houses comfortably. When NASA was dying he went round picking the spoils. Raila's ODM are still in coast trying to use the law to intimidate COAST to support him. Never worked. You cannot force Aisha Jumwas to love you. You got to talk nicely - understand they are also ambitious politicians interested in their future careers.

Ruto cannot match a combined force of Uhuru and Raila both in and out of parliament,you need to check your head checked.

[Pajero]

You and Ruto are one and the same thing,you lie soo much.Now as much as you want to make ODM look like a luo party,i would rather you be objective and factual in your arguments.

First and foremost ODM has 62 mps elected in the current parliament out of which only 25 come from luo nyanza.So we can comfortably say about 40% of ODM mps are from Railas luo Nyanza.The rest who constitute about 60% come outside his native luo Nyanza.

Now,lets examine jubilee too and see the propotion of Kalenjin and Kikuyu mps.Jubilee has 140 mps elected in current parliament.We have 45 kalenjin mps elected in Rift valley and 56 GEMA mps (elected in central ,nakuru and meru) making 101 mps out of the 140 mps in jubilee.This constitutes about 70%.

Now can you see the difference,which one looks more national,is it ODM or jubilee????????

[RV Pundit]

Your party has hammerraged support from highs of 2007 when it had more than 50% (would be around 170Mps now) in 2007/2008 to 95Mps in 2013 (Ruto took 75mps) in 2013 to realistic now about 45mps (if you remove the rebels who have refused to be party to it and have cut of party payments deducation) -- out of those 45mps - 40mps are maybe LUOS.

And reason - Ruto has been going at Raila's ODM since 2008 - he got huge head-start with URP in 2013.

The Ruto didn't stop there  btw 2013-2017 - but continue his campaigns leading to Jubilee romping home with even bigger number of
mps - including a rout in Bukusu land

As soon as 2017 was done with - Ruto did not stop - the man doesn't stop - he went for  non-Luos Mps in NASA's - ODM - took a heavy hit.

Now 2019 - why would I LIE? When you can fact check.

Raila has 62Mps (inclusive women rep, nominated if am not wrong) - but Luo Mps (NOT Luo Nyanza) - are like 35 or more - add Luo Mps in Nairobi - 4 women reps. In fact Luo has no Bukusu Mp. 1 Gusii Mp. 1 Maasai Mp. Nearly zero Somali-Borana Mp. Zero Kuri Mp. It had maybe 4 Turkana Mp - but with their gov Nanok they've decamped to Ruto. 

ODM next stronghold - about 20Mps - but it gave them nothing in house comittee - and they all decamped led by Dori - about half were late paid by Joho to stick around. Ruto took about all of them.

Do not fight facts. ODM is now LUO party. Plus few Coast and Busia Mps. FINITO. The man is so dead. NASA died long time ago.

Jubilee has more than 200Mps - about 170 mps plus elected - another probably 50 frelancing. Remove GEMA - and all the rest owed their support & loyalty to Jubilee to DR William Samoei Ruto.  That is why Uhuru cannot dare call Jubilee PG or something like that....while he still kissing Raila...he will be embarrassed. Even GEMA MPs are not with it --- they don't like the direction he is taking.

You and Ruto are one and the same thing,you lie soo much.Now as much as you want to make ODM look like a luo party,i would rather you be objective and factual in your arguments.

First and foremost ODM has 62 mps elected in the current parliament out of which only 25 come from luo nyanza.So we can comfortably say about 40% of ODM mps are from Railas luo Nyanza.The rest who constitute about 60% come outside his native luo Nyanza.

Now,lets examine jubilee too and see the propotion of Kalenjin and Kikuyu mps.Jubilee has 140 mps elected in current parliament.We have 45 kalenjin mps elected in Rift valley and 56 GEMA mps (elected in central ,nakuru and meru) making 101 mps out of the 140 mps in jubilee.This constitutes about 70%.

Now can you see the difference,which one looks more national,is it ODM or jubilee????????

[Pajero]

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee has 141 elected mps +26-31 women mps + 6 nominated = total around 170mps. Now it also has Jubilee -alied Mps, independent leaning Jubilee and then ODM mps like Aisha Jumwa who have donated their voting cards to Duale. That is around 200mps.

According to this it has 207 mps - excluding Aisha Jumwas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_(Kenya)

Let not argue about that. Jubilee has all the Mps it will ever need.

Now let's talk ODM. Give me LUO MPS (luo nyanza, diaspora, women reps, nominated).

[Kadudu]

Pundit, do yourself a favour and leave Luhya out of that equation.

If not we will have shouting match in Jubilee that will eventually break Jubilee apart - GEMA will need Raila's ODM to govern - and Ruto will look for anti-Raila - embittered folks like Weta+Madvd - to frustrate GOK.  We will have GEMA-Luo forces probably arraigned against Kamatus+Luhya all the way to 2012.

[RV Pundit]

I think you're more than willing. You have a huge axe to grind with Raila - unless you're forever his slave. Definitely Ruto has about half Luhya leadership in his pocket now - and other are split btw Weta, MaDVD and Raila.

Pundit, do yourself a favour and leave Luhya out of that equation.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit there is no Jubilee.. start from there. What is Jubilee's position on referendum? On war on corruption? At least Raila has a party

What has really changed since August 2017? Ruto LOST executive power - he's lameduck DPORK - Raila & Matiang'i are de facto Uhuru assitants. The rest - defectors, traitors, GEMA vote, Nyanza? - is neither here nor there and time will tell.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto was never Uhuru assistant. He was the co-president when not acting as president. Now he is just the assistant in this Uhuru last term - the DPORK as it suppose to be. I don't think Raila is anywhere near Uhuru gov. He is outside. Matiangi has indeed taken over Ruto job. Uhuru obviously is not the guy to do the hardwork of governing.

Pundit there is no Jubilee.. start from there. What is Jubilee's position on referendum? On war on corruption? At least Raila has a party

What has really changed since August 2017? Ruto LOST executive power - he's lameduck DPORK - Raila & Matiang'i are de facto Uhuru assitants. The rest - defectors, traitors, GEMA vote, Nyanza? - is neither here nor there and time will tell.

[Nefertiti]

The chess pieces remain

1) Referendum wild card
2) GEMA - will they stick with Ruto or go Raila or split or what?

Ruto was never Uhuru assistant. He was the co-president when not acting as president. Now he is just the assistant in this Uhuru last term - the DPORK as it suppose to be. I don't think Raila is anywhere near Uhuru gov. He is outside. Matiangi has indeed taken over Ruto job. Uhuru obviously is not the guy to do the hardwork of governing.

[RV Pundit]

To what end. You don't just move pieces. You need endgame. What will GEMA achieve by going with Raila instead of Ruto. Nothing except endanger the lives and properties of 1M of their people living amongst RVs - and probably sully the hard-won peace there forever. He can trust Ruto - but Raila will not hesitate to exact his revenge if he had an inch in power.

Again referendum for what. Will GEMA want executive PM or parliamentary system. Of course not. The presidential systems has favored them 35 yrs of power.

GEMA best deal is for one of their own to string another 10yrs in power and make that 45yrs!

Of course GEMA doesn't exist - what exist is Uhuru - Uhuru is GEMA just like Raila is Luo and Ruto is RV.

Therefore it what Uhuru wants - he appears to think he is young to retire. Or he is just scared like every retiree!

We need to just figure out what Uhuru wants. If he wants a legacy - great. If he wants to extend his rule somehow - then a big fight is coming.

Outside Uhuru - I don't think GEMA have a candidate who can seriously ran for PORK. Uhuru has not allowed any to emerge.

I think Ruto job for now is to disabuse Uhuru & his worried orphans from this notion that he can continue - to make him realize it won't be a walk in the park - but he will be basically destroying all he has worked for the last 10yrs.

The chess pieces remain
1) Referendum wild card
2) GEMA - will they stick with Ruto or go Raila or split or what?

[Nefertiti]

We know prima facie - from his actions - Uhuru wants to extend his rule. Raila seems ready (or has fooled Uhuru)  to become ceremonial PORK as Uhuru become Exec PM. This means a dog-fight with Ruto. In this scenario I see

1) Ruto scuttles referendum - at the ballot or before - and loses Uhuru and GEMA in the process. Raila inherits GEMA and wins PORK
2) Ruto accedes new structure - 2022 becomes Uhuru-Raila v Ruto camp. From Kalonzo and Madvd talk they are both with Uhuru-Raila

Ruto chances don't look good - I see no Uhuru-Ruto detente coming.

To what end. You don't just move pieces. You need endgame. What will GEMA achieve by going with Raila instead of Ruto. Nothing except endanger the lives and properties of 1M of their people living amongst RVs - and probably sully the hard-won peace there forever. He can trust Ruto - but Raila will not hesitate to exact his revenge if he had an inch in power.

Again referendum for what. Will GEMA want executive PM or parliamentary system. Of course not. The presidential systems has favored them 35 yrs of power.

GEMA best deal is for one of their own to string another 10yrs in power and make that 45yrs!

Of course GEMA doesn't exist - what exist is Uhuru - Uhuru is GEMA just like Raila is Luo and Ruto is RV.

Therefore it what Uhuru wants - he appears to think he is young to retire. Or he is just scared like every retiree!

We need to just figure out what Uhuru wants. If he wants a legacy - great. If he wants to extend his rule somehow - then a big fight is coming.

Outside Uhuru - I don't think GEMA have a candidate who can seriously ran for PORK. Uhuru has not allowed any to emerge.

I think Ruto job for now is to disabuse Uhuru & his worried orphans from this notion that he can continue - to make him realize it won't be a walk in the park - but he will be basically destroying all he has worked for the last 10yrs.

[RV Pundit]

Okay so Uhuru changes constitutions - all that fight and referendum - just to become PM who shares power with Raila and can be fired anytime thro parliament - after being executive PORK. That sounds stupid.

As stupid as Uhuru name doesn't appear on ballot - Raila goes to ballot for PORK - and then eventually party with majority picks the PM - who enjoys zero security of tenures.

Some ideas are insane. They are just concocted by people scared of retiring from the eating tables.

We know prima facie - from his actions - Uhuru wants to extend his rule. Raila seems ready (or has fooled Uhuru)  to become ceremonial PORK as Uhuru become Exec PM. This means a dog-fight with Ruto. In this scenario I see

1) Ruto scuttles referendum - at the ballot or before - and loses Uhuru and GEMA in the process. Raila inherits GEMA and wins PORK
2) Ruto accedes new structure - 2022 becomes Uhuru-Raila v Ruto camp. From Kalonzo and Madvd talk they are both with Uhuru-Raila

Ruto chances don't look good - I see no Uhuru-Ruto detente coming.

[Nefertiti]

Exec PM is MUCH BETTER than proxy DPORK or MOU with a vulture like Ruto or Raila. Blinkers pleasee. Depending on how new structure is worded - most likely "Leader" of biggest party or coalition bla bla - Uhuru just needs to create a coalition - new party - with Raila in which is he is Party Leader while Raila is PORK candidate. Ruto can pick Waiguru or Oparanya for PORK in his new party. I think Raila just wants to be in history book and bank notes as PORK while spoiling for Ruto

As I said before if I was Uhuru or GEMA I would not take Ruto's word nor allow him silver platter. Scuttle his game first then make a good deal - not the cheap nonsense now where he controls everything before a deal. Uhuru is playing VERY WELL contra to your wishes. MOUs rarely work and any future bickering is not limited to Luo.

Okay so Uhuru changes constitutions - all that fight and referendum - just to become PM who shares power with Raila and can be fired anytime thro parliament - after being executive PORK. That sounds stupid.

As stupid as Uhuru name doesn't appear on ballot - Raila goes to ballot for PORK - and then eventually party with majority picks the PM - who enjoys zero security of tenures.

Some ideas are insane. They are just concocted by people scared of retiring from the eating tables.

[RV Pundit]

Exec PM is MUCH BETTER than proxy DPORK or MOU with a vulture like Ruto or Raila. Blinkers pleasee. Depending on how new structure is worded - most likely "Leader" of biggest party or coalition bla bla - Uhuru just needs to create a coalition - new party - with Raila in which is he is Party Leader while Raila is PORK candidate. Ruto can pick Waiguru or Oparanya for PORK in his new party. I think Raila just wants to be in history book and bank notes as PORK while spoiling for Ruto

As I said before if I was Uhuru or GEMA I would not take Ruto's word nor allow him silver platter. Scuttle his game first then make a good deal - not the cheap nonsense now where he controls everything before a deal. Uhuru is playing VERY WELL contra to your wishes. MOUs rarely work and any future bickering is not limited to Luo.

Okay so Uhuru changes constitutions - all that fight and referendum - just to become PM who shares power with Raila and can be fired anytime thro parliament - after being executive PORK. That sounds stupid.

As stupid as Uhuru name doesn't appear on ballot - Raila goes to ballot for PORK - and then eventually party with majority picks the PM - who enjoys zero security of tenures.

Some ideas are insane. They are just concocted by people scared of retiring from the eating tables.

Why would Uhuru be that desperate.Ruto is a gentleman if you treat him well.Uhuru has done that for his his first term and he ruled without worry.If Raila had treated Ruto well he would be finishing his term now.But you don't want Ruto as your enemy.The man never sleeps.The man just ran 21km at Uhuru wife marathon after getting PhD in science.Youre talking a Biwott and Moi reincarnated in one person..a natural leader who is a schemer par excellence.Uhuru slept to find Ruto had out looted Kenyatta clan.

[RV Pundit]

Why would anybody would wish poor Uhuru an enemy as meticulous, as energetic, as resourceful and as adept as Ruto.Unless you literally kill Ruto it nearly impossible to keep him down.That too will take  a lot coz Ruto ran a parrallel NIS.