Some people never learn. UhuRuto playing them for dummies

[RV Pundit]

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I not sure which one is more laughable.
1) Raila joining KANU - while UhuRuto knew all along he was heading no where. At least Raila pulled a rabit out and handed Kibaki the win. Raila was pretty much damaged goods.
2) MaDVD being handed over party & a secretariat - and then Uhuru handing over his candidature at Madvd house after a cup of tea and Mandazi so he can be pulled out of ODM. And the decision rescinded a weak later. MaDVD became the laughing stock of the country as UhuRuto zoomed to PORK.
3) Kalonzo being played as KKK brother? I think that one has been played so many times it not even funny.
4) Raila at 74yr getting played to hand over his 6M supporters and make Uhuru the Supreme Leader of Kenya at the price of Mandazi. When all this is done and dusted...Raila will have no option but tosha RUTO. He is being played but he is so desperate he'll take his chances.


Politics is not ajua. There are people playing chess. And here you're playing AJUA.

[Pajero]

[RV Pundit]

Now that is indeed very wishful thinking. Martha Karua should concentrate on her grandchildren. She is like Raila - kaput. I think the woman to watch is Waiguru. She has the oomph to make DPORK if Kiunjuri or Waria don't beat her for the ticket.

[Pajero]

Who should be learning,Ruto should be the one to know that kikuyus never support outsiders.He has been in Kenya long enough to see with his own eyes.

[Kichwa]

Exactly, we told RVP along time ago that Kikuyus will never support Ruto and yet he insists they will even when the evidence is now overwhelming that they will NOT.  Ruto is only getting support from some Mt. Kenya region politicians whom he paid a lot of money and promised Canaan.  Those "selected" politicians are easily replacable.  Ouru will tell Central hoi poloi who to vote for when the time comes.  Ruto cannot afford to have a divided Mt. Kenya vote and only ouru can unite that vote. Now that they are dissing Ouru, he can forget it.

Who should be learning,Ruto should be the one to know that kikuyus never support outsiders.He has been in Kenya long enough to see with his own eyes.

[hk]

There's real revolt in mt. kenya against jubilee. And it all comes down to the economy, Mt. kenya kenya residents are worse off under jubilee government. The so called developments haven't increased their incomes or lowered cost of doing business. This is the real problem in kenya not only mt,kenya despite the rosy gdp growth numbers. The number of small and micro businesses that have collapsed is astounding. We have areas that have idle infrastructure be it electricity, hospitals etc.
The good thing about the handshake is, no one can blame raila on the economy, its all jubilee.

[Kichwa]

The economy is bad for everybody.  I really do not believe there is a revolt in Mt. Kenya per se other than the scramble among the elected officials who were bought by Ruto and thought he was a shoe-in. These Ruto puppies are throwing temper tantrums but they are few and can be easily replaced or flipped.  Ruto needs to forget about Jubilee because Jubilee is already folding tent. He needs to go back to URP and seek a different kind of coalition.  Jubilee is kaput either way because it's purpose was to rope in the entire Mt. Kenya in support of Ruto  2022 and since that is not possible, its outlived its usefulness .

There's real revolt in mt. kenya against jubilee. And it all comes down to the economy, Mt. kenya kenya residents are worse off under jubilee government. The so called developments haven't increased their incomes or lowered cost of doing business. This is the real problem in kenya not only mt,kenya despite the rosy gdp growth numbers. The number of small and micro businesses that have collapsed is astounding. We have areas that have idle infrastructure be it electricity, hospitals etc.
The good thing about the handshake is, no one can blame raila on the economy, its all jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya is doing well. GDP growth is not faked. Infrastructure is not faked. Obviously the people who have false expectation of what gov ought to do will complain.

There's real revolt in mt. kenya against jubilee. And it all comes down to the economy, Mt. kenya kenya residents are worse off under jubilee government. The so called developments haven't increased their incomes or lowered cost of doing business. This is the real problem in kenya not only mt,kenya despite the rosy gdp growth numbers. The number of small and micro businesses that have collapsed is astounding. We have areas that have idle infrastructure be it electricity, hospitals etc.
The good thing about the handshake is, no one can blame raila on the economy, its all jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

Why would ruto retreat back to URP when he is the heir-apparent. Who else btw is competing with Ruto? raila

The economy is bad for everybody.  I really do not believe there is a revolt in Mt. Kenya per se other than the scramble among the elected officials who were bought by Ruto and thought he was a shoe-in. These Ruto puppies are throwing temper tantrums but they are few and can be easily replaced or flipped.  Ruto needs to forget about Jubilee because Jubilee is already folding tent. He needs to go back to URP and seek a different kind of coalition.  Jubilee is kaput either way because it's purpose was to rope in the entire Mt. Kenya in support of Ruto  2022 and since that is not possible, its outlived its usefulness .

[hk]

Kenya is doing well. GDP growth is not faked. Infrastructure is not faked. Obviously the people who have false expectation of what gov ought to do will complain.

How come almost all the listed companies are issuing profit warnings? How come non performing loans have increased? The number of repos and auctions have increased? The problem is the private sector is struggling. Kenya economy is being driven by public sector and debt. Government has successfully crowded out the private sector.
The problem is the government is trying to do too much at the expense of the private sector. So people who are complaining don't want more government but less or at least not at inflated prices.

[hk]

The economy is bad for everybody.  I really do not believe there is a revolt in Mt. Kenya per se other than the scramble among the elected officials who were bought by Ruto and thought he was a shoe-in. These Ruto puppies are throwing temper tantrums but they are few and can be easily replaced or flipped.  Ruto needs to forget about Jubilee because Jubilee is already folding tent. He needs to go back to URP and seek a different kind of coalition.  Jubilee is kaput either way because it's purpose was to rope in the entire Mt. Kenya in support of Ruto  2022 and since that is not possible, its outlived its usefulness .

There's real revolt in mt. kenya against jubilee. And it all comes down to the economy, Mt. kenya kenya residents are worse off under jubilee government. The so called developments haven't increased their incomes or lowered cost of doing business. This is the real problem in kenya not only mt,kenya despite the rosy gdp growth numbers. The number of small and micro businesses that have collapsed is astounding. We have areas that have idle infrastructure be it electricity, hospitals etc.
The good thing about the handshake is, no one can blame raila on the economy, its all jubilee.

Yes there's revolt or better yet a buyer's remorse on jubilee. This is among the voters, the politicians are driven by other factors. If there were an election today uhuru would be lucky to get 60% of the mt. kenya. The economy is bad for everyone except the  crony capitalist but not everyone voted for jubilee so its only natural the people who voted for jubilee to be the most disgruntled.

[RV Pundit]

Agriculture is kicking arse - esp horticulture - it not gov or private sector. Tourism is also back on track. Real estate is on a pause as people try to figure out Uhuru big 4. All other sectors are doing well - even manufacturing seem to back.I know financial sector is struggling with rate capping - but the mwananchi who is paying 13% interest is not complaining.

We need public investment in roads and rails. Look at say Bomet or Kericho county - we had very little tarmac before Jubilee - now everywhere I go there are low seal tarmac everywhere. There is electricity everywhere - street lights even in rural outposts. Counties have greatly improved murram roads, building small bridges and inter-connected rural areas.

Where I live in Nairobi - I am seeing sewers lines everywhere, the roads are being tarmacked & improved. Water is still a big challenge - both in rural and urban areas - and I hope gov can reverse this.

Maybe central is not feeling all these because they already enjoyed historical advantage. That is all I am seeing here. Otherwise for places like Turkana or Wajir - poverty is being halved as we speak!

Gov should continue to massively invest in roads, rails, electricity, sewers. Those that already have them - will complain - because they are not feeling the impact.

How come almost all the listed companies are issuing profit warnings? How come non performing loans have increased? The number of repos and auctions have increased? The problem is the private sector is struggling. Kenya economy is being driven by public sector and debt. Government has successfully crowded out the private sector.
The problem is the government is trying to do too much at the expense of the private sector. So people who are complaining don't want more government but less or at least not at inflated prices.

[hk]

Agriculture is kicking arse - esp horticulture - it not gov or private sector. Tourism is also back on track. Real estate is on a pause as people try to figure out Uhuru big 4. All other sectors are doing well - even manufacturing seem to back.I know financial sector is struggling with rate capping - but the mwananchi who is paying 13% interest is not complaining.

We need public investment in roads and rails. Look at say Bomet or Kericho county - we had very little tarmac before Jubilee - now everywhere I go there are low seal tarmac everywhere. There is electricity everywhere - street lights even in rural outposts. Counties have greatly improved murram roads, building small bridges and inter-connected rural areas.

Where I live in Nairobi - I am seeing sewers lines everywhere, the roads are being tarmacked & improved. Water is still a big challenge - both in rural and urban areas - and I hope gov can reverse this.

Maybe central is not feeling all these because they already enjoyed historical advantage. That is all I am seeing here. Otherwise for places like Turkana or Wajir - poverty is being halved as we speak!

Gov should continue to massively invest in roads, rails, electricity, sewers. Those that already have them - will complain - because they are not feeling the impact.

How come almost all the listed companies are issuing profit warnings? How come non performing loans have increased? The number of repos and auctions have increased? The problem is the private sector is struggling. Kenya economy is being driven by public sector and debt. Government has successfully crowded out the private sector.
The problem is the government is trying to do too much at the expense of the private sector. So people who are complaining don't want more government but less or at least not at inflated prices.

Therein lies the problem. To you development is building of roads sewer electricity etc at whatever cost and irrespective of demand. Real development is increase in productivity which leads to increase in incomes. If jubilee is investing in infrastructure which should encourage more trade, mt. kenya region would also be thriving since the region export bulk of what it produces. Coincidentally the weakest sector in the economy is retail and trade. Why, because kenyans don't have disposal incomes or its being eaten away by inflation.
Of course govt should invest in rd etc but at what cost? Just because bomet now has more roads that doesn't mean the locals income have increased. And most likely the roads have been built at inflated prices. So the locals are literally either paying high interest rates  or lack credit . Because there's no liquidity the govt is sucking up money from private by borrowing and spending like drunken sailors. Money is being sucked from wanjiku to rich connected kenyans who're doing public works. Take electricity, jubilee is proud of increase in connections but it also means industries and middle class are subsidizing those connections which has meant high cost of elecricity overall.
Big Banks are doing well despite the capping of rates cause all they've to do is invest in treasuries at zero risk. Or extend mobile  loans at shylock rates through the much vaunted fintechs. 
BTW the economy slowed down 3rd quarter from 2nd 6.3% to 6% and i am willing to bet the 4th quarter will be below 6%. Even the pmi has been below 54 the last 4 months which means the economy isn't accelerating. Which it should given there's no external shocks that are buffeting the economy.
So in a nutshell mt. kenya region need not some preferential treatment just needs the real economy(increased incomes and more money in circulation) to grow cause that will trickle down even to the wanjiku in the village.
On construction isn't because of the big 4, its cause there's a glut in vacant buildings. The only reason why prices of houses and buildings haven't seriously tumbled its cause land prices haven't come down yet. Again there's no shortage of housing, there's low incomes. People who can't afford good decent housing.

[RV Pundit]

You keep shifting goal posts. The economy is firing at 6% plus. The last Q had tax related disputes - esp on energy sector - but I think as long as the rains behave - and we don't have terror - we are going to see 7% economic growth in 2019. We certainly are looking at maybe 6.2% in 2018.

I wish you could really give me anecdotal evidence of sufferings that you're alluding to - and in which sectors. I mean central are singing to the bank going by data from horticulture, tea is holding steady, so is coffee, and the nuts - productions is growing crazily. What exactly do you mean by productivity?
Gov job is to provide gov services - roads, water, rail, security - and it's doing that. Jubilee are building more roads than all gov combined. They have connected more people than all previous gov combined. The guys who are making this happen - are mostly chinese - and everyone seem to be happy - the gov officials get their 10% - the chinese work day and night to deliver the road on cost & ahead of schedule - and the citizen using those roads or electricity are benefiting. Obviously you don't expect to see a quick jump - in production - after a road or electricity is supplied - but there are immediate impacts - on asset appreciation (land prices), fares reducing, travel time reducing, comfort, less diseases from all the dusts, name it. in fullness of time  - more towns will emerge - more cars will be bought - more factories will be established - more and better services will follow those basic infrastructure.

In short I cannot put an handle on your complains. What exactly is hailing the 'real' economy that is NOT CAPTURED BY COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC SURVEYS COVERING ALL SECTORS.I know NSE and listed companies are struggling - but those are really exogenous risks driven by global investors playing bing-bong with US treasury -- and despite that NSE was BEST PEFORMING in africa - when it decelerated the least.

Therein lies the problem. To you development is building of roads sewer electricity etc at whatever cost and irrespective of demand. Real development is increase in productivity which leads to increase in incomes. If jubilee is investing in infrastructure which should encourage more trade, mt. kenya region would also be thriving since the region export bulk of what it produces. Coincidentally the weakest sector in the economy is retail and trade. Why, because kenyans don't have disposal incomes or its being eaten away by inflation.
Of course govt should invest in rd etc but at what cost? Just because bomet now has more roads that doesn't mean the locals income have increased. And most likely the roads have been built at inflated prices. So the locals are literally either paying high interest rates  or lack credit . Because there's no liquidity the govt is sucking up money from private by borrowing and spending like drunken sailors. Money is being sucked from wanjiku to rich connected kenyans who're doing public works. Take electricity, jubilee is proud of increase in connections but it also means industries and middle class are subsidizing those connections which has meant high cost of elecricity overall.
Big Banks are doing well despite the capping of rates cause all they've to do is invest in treasuries at zero risk. Or extend mobile  loans at shylock rates through the much vaunted fintechs. 
BTW the economy slowed down 3rd quarter from 2nd 6.3% to 6% and i am willing to bet the 4th quarter will be below 6%. Even the pmi has been below 54 the last 4 months which means the economy isn't accelerating. Which it should given there's no external shocks that are buffeting the economy.
So in a nutshell mt. kenya region need not some preferential treatment just needs the real economy(increased incomes and more money in circulation) to grow cause that will trickle down even to the wanjiku in the village.
On construction isn't because of the big 4, its cause there's a glut in vacant buildings. The only reason why prices of houses and buildings haven't seriously tumbled its cause land prices haven't come down yet. Again there's no shortage of housing, there's low incomes. People who can't afford good decent housing.

[Kadudu]

As you can see a lot of noise about the economy and the only one basking in the sun is Uhuru and his family. Ruto's money sources have been drained and till today we have not had a raid at mAfya House or the Road sector to look for corruption money.

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenyattas-buy-Jamii-Bora-Bank-for-Sh1-4bn/996-4930802-fmyk2nz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

Here is Mugai trying to help me understand the HK grievance. I am still struggling though.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019/01/12/mungai-why-is-central-kenya-no-longer-at-ease-it-is-the-economy-stupid_c1876018

[KenyanPlato]

Simple napkin economic maths

Current revenues 1.3 trillion
Current expenditure 1.00 trillion before financing counties or national govt reccurent expenditure

Means gok had to freeze new development projects


Needs to either borrow to finance counties or share 300 billion left

We are in debt driven. Crisis. Only political kasukus like pundit who do not understand that

Uhuru wanted to make Kenya a middle income couhfry but failed to realize how poor and fragile our economy is.

Ruto should be let become president he wilk earn his way through it.

Kenya was spending 40 percent more than we earned each year.

Vendors providing services have gone for 14 months without pay. Most have been wrecked economically.

The problem with jubikee supporters like HK is that they do not want to support their presidnet now that their infrastructure borrowing has landed us in a ditch

[hk]

You keep shifting goal posts. The economy is firing at 6% plus. The last Q had tax related disputes - esp on energy sector - but I think as long as the rains behave - and we don't have terror - we are going to see 7% economic growth in 2019. We certainly are looking at maybe 6.2% in 2018.

I wish you could really give me anecdotal evidence of sufferings that you're alluding to - and in which sectors. I mean central are singing to the bank going by data from horticulture, tea is holding steady, so is coffee, and the nuts - productions is growing crazily. What exactly do you mean by productivity?
Gov job is to provide gov services - roads, water, rail, security - and it's doing that. Jubilee are building more roads than all gov combined. They have connected more people than all previous gov combined. The guys who are making this happen - are mostly chinese - and everyone seem to be happy - the gov officials get their 10% - the chinese work day and night to deliver the road on cost & ahead of schedule - and the citizen using those roads or electricity are benefiting. Obviously you don't expect to see a quick jump - in production - after a road or electricity is supplied - but there are immediate impacts - on asset appreciation (land prices), fares reducing, travel time reducing, comfort, less diseases from all the dusts, name it. in fullness of time  - more towns will emerge - more cars will be bought - more factories will be established - more and better services will follow those basic infrastructure.

In short I cannot put an handle on your complains. What exactly is hailing the 'real' economy that is NOT CAPTURED BY COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC SURVEYS COVERING ALL SECTORS.I know NSE and listed companies are struggling - but those are really exogenous risks driven by global investors playing bing-bong with US treasury -- and despite that NSE was BEST PEFORMING in africa - when it decelerated the least.

If the economy were booming the consumer spending would be strong. That's not what's happening the latest data available https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/marketnews/Consumer-spending-slows-down-July-Sept/3815534-4884586-nl574nz/index.html . Even the latest data on 3rd quarter, retail and wholesale isn't one of the highlights of performing sectors. The problem with inflated infrastructure building is you end up with idle and underutilized capacity. When a government overtax and borrow to build infrastructure at inflated prices. It inadvertently end up affecting private sector negatively. This is actually whats happening, the private sector has been crowded out(credit growth), increased taxation has reduced spending power . Distortion of market prices of goods and services due to over payments (corruption) has also had negative impact.
The idle capacity you can see that in energy sector https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-in-Sh270bn-race-to-connect-all-homes/539546-4885258-10o1lkw/index.html, inflated projects probably all of them but we have roads being built at the cost of 1b per km, pedestrian bridges of thika rd at 200m per bridge etc.
On the NSE, we're not talking about how the index has performed, we're talking about the number of companies that have issued profit warnings.
Anecdotal of struggling economy: The flourishing of kadogo economy. My buddy is a pharmaceutical manufacturer; he had to invest in a new packaging line to pack minipackets cause that's what the market can afford. When people can't afford to buy full dosage, we have a problem. And this are syrups etc basically cheap medicine.

[RV Pundit]

Interesting that all this not capture by economic data from KNBS.I am not sure what new taxes Jubilee have introudced apart from housing, mobile money & vat reforms - and they shouldn't have such an effect on consumption. If private sector was struggling - we would see in economic sector data. I know there is a credit squeeze - but it's not bad - credit or lending as been growing - just single digit - instead of double digit - and really everyone seem happy with interest caps. Interests that had risen to 25% pa was never going to help anyway.

You keep shifting goal posts. The economy is firing at 6% plus. The last Q had tax related disputes - esp on energy sector - but I think as long as the rains behave - and we don't have terror - we are going to see 7% economic growth in 2019. We certainly are looking at maybe 6.2% in 2018.

I wish you could really give me anecdotal evidence of sufferings that you're alluding to - and in which sectors. I mean central are singing to the bank going by data from horticulture, tea is holding steady, so is coffee, and the nuts - productions is growing crazily. What exactly do you mean by productivity?
Gov job is to provide gov services - roads, water, rail, security - and it's doing that. Jubilee are building more roads than all gov combined. They have connected more people than all previous gov combined. The guys who are making this happen - are mostly chinese - and everyone seem to be happy - the gov officials get their 10% - the chinese work day and night to deliver the road on cost & ahead of schedule - and the citizen using those roads or electricity are benefiting. Obviously you don't expect to see a quick jump - in production - after a road or electricity is supplied - but there are immediate impacts - on asset appreciation (land prices), fares reducing, travel time reducing, comfort, less diseases from all the dusts, name it. in fullness of time  - more towns will emerge - more cars will be bought - more factories will be established - more and better services will follow those basic infrastructure.

In short I cannot put an handle on your complains. What exactly is hailing the 'real' economy that is NOT CAPTURED BY COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC SURVEYS COVERING ALL SECTORS.I know NSE and listed companies are struggling - but those are really exogenous risks driven by global investors playing bing-bong with US treasury -- and despite that NSE was BEST PEFORMING in africa - when it decelerated the least.

If the economy were booming the consumer spending would be strong. That's not what's happening the latest data available https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/marketnews/Consumer-spending-slows-down-July-Sept/3815534-4884586-nl574nz/index.html . Even the latest data on 3rd quarter, retail and wholesale isn't one of the highlights of performing sectors. The problem with inflated infrastructure building is you end up with idle and underutilized capacity. When a government overtax and borrow to build infrastructure at inflated prices. It inadvertently end up affecting private sector negatively. This is actually whats happening, the private sector has been crowded out(credit growth), increased taxation has reduced spending power . Distortion of market prices of goods and services due to over payments (corruption) has also had negative impact.
The idle capacity you can see that in energy sector https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-in-Sh270bn-race-to-connect-all-homes/539546-4885258-10o1lkw/index.html, inflated projects probably all of them but we have roads being built at the cost of 1b per km, pedestrian bridges of thika rd at 200m per bridge etc.
On the NSE, we're not talking about how the index has performed, we're talking about the number of companies that have issued profit warnings.
Anecdotal of struggling economy: The flourishing of kadogo economy. My buddy is a pharmaceutical manufacturer; he had to invest in a new packaging line to pack minipackets cause that's what the market can afford. When people can't afford to buy full dosage, we have a problem. And this are syrups etc basically cheap medicine.

[RV Pundit]

You figures are off. Taxes alone are trending towards 1.5 trillion and if you include A-I-A - it nearly 2 trillions kshs.

Simple napkin economic maths

Current revenues 1.3 trillion
Current expenditure 1.00 trillion before financing counties or national govt reccurent expenditure

Means gok had to freeze new development projects


Needs to either borrow to finance counties or share 300 billion left

We are in debt driven. Crisis. Only political kasukus like pundit who do not understand that

Uhuru wanted to make Kenya a middle income couhfry but failed to realize how poor and fragile our economy is.

Ruto should be let become president he wilk earn his way through it.

Kenya was spending 40 percent more than we earned each year.

Vendors providing services have gone for 14 months without pay. Most have been wrecked economically.

The problem with jubikee supporters like HK is that they do not want to support their presidnet now that their infrastructure borrowing has landed us in a ditch