In an era of
open data and ease of obtaining information from cyberspace,
maybe syndrome argumentative people are a real drag.. you know that group that prosecute unscholarly arguments with verbs and adjectives and words like 'maybe', 'pretty sure', 'I am not sure', 'probably', 'about' (as in no exactness) question marks, etc etecetra
Well, my fren, no need to
assume anything in the last 6 or 10 years when there is solid research out there. For instance In today's Nation:
Kenyans 'earning less now than 10 years ago' How does one against what which is backed up by scientific research??
I am not sure how things are panning out - but definitely by Jan 2019 - let assume 6 yrs since 2013 - our GDP should be 9 trillion Kshs (90b). Yes I am pretty sure when we next re-basing - we will discover that M-pesa has unleashed a "monster" and our economy might well be larger - than we thought - however of course we need to worry about gov's revenue - our tax to gdp is not improving - so maybe Informal sector is growing at expense of formal sector?
How do you get from 55b to 90b in 5yrs? There are only a few plausible scenarios. 1. The economy was much bigger than 55b in 2013(Meaning it was about $73b and grew by 5.4% the last 5 yrs). 2. The economy grew by average of 10% for the last 5 yrs. 3. The economy was 55b in 2013 and grew a rate of 5.4% per annum to $71b.
Economy 1st quarter growth rate 5.7%, 2nd 6.1%, we shall see the 3rd quarter with the effect of increased taxation.
Mpesa is an enabler, it has done alot to improve on efficiency and productivity of the economy. And also has helped to create new industry like mobile betting,mobile credit etc. There are sectors that exist due to mpesa.
Topic: Don't kill the messenger, these are public pronouncements (Read 3879 times)