That is hilarious - your maths is definitely wrong. The economy as we speak is around 89B - should be 90B by dec - we already have Q1 and Q2 figures...about 4.4 trillion Kshs or roughly 44B - Q3 should be about ready - but the trend is we will end the year with 90B dollars (kshs 9 trillion).Rebasing cannot be solved when the economy is changing & we are getting more data. The last rebasing didn't capture M-pesa but generally factored the telcom/ICT sectors. You know last year M-pesa wired more than 45B dollars - and you know all the revolution around M-pesa - is probably more pervasive than telcom sector. We will have census data soon but don't be suprised if next re-basing will show we are underestimating our economy.
How do you get from 55b to 90b in 5yrs? There are only a few plausible scenarios. 1. The economy was much bigger than 55b in 2013(Meaning it was about $73b and grew by 5.4% the last 5 yrs). 2. The economy grew by average of 10% for the last 5 yrs. 3. The economy was 55b in 2013 and grew a rate of 5.4% per annum to $71b.
Economy 1st quarter growth rate 5.7%, 2nd 6.1%, we shall see the 3rd quarter with the effect of increased taxation.
Mpesa is an enabler, it has done alot to improve on efficiency and productivity of the economy. And also has helped to create new industry like mobile betting,mobile credit etc. There are sectors that exist due to mpesa.