Nearly missed this - Jubilee ease of doing business - top 60 worldwide.

[RV Pundit]

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Now these are the kind of reforms we need. Our vote for the dynamic duo was not in vain.

Jubilee target was to go under 50...and I think they will do it.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001301112/kenya-up-19-places-in-world-bank-ease-of-doing-business-ranking

[gout]

This in face of ongoing credit squeeze though likes of Equity are balling with Treasury bets.

strengthened access to credit

I won't even talk about property transfer processes around.

Jubilee policies are crippling micro and small businesses in all sectors - taxes, bans, demolitions, 'counterfeits', haphazard crackdowns, return of bribes in every public office.

Just the other day Uhuru acted ashamed after listening to MSME owners - at least for once his directive has been heeded with the downward adjustment of unreasonable electricity prices.

My take is that the data from ERC on number and categories of consumers is one of the most reliable indicator of consumption, purchasing power and economic activities in the country.


World Bank is quite easy to fool.

[hk]

Ease of doing business measures processes. Ease of getting licenses and permits etc. While its good we're improving on this front. It doesn't measure the macro economics of the country or how free the economy is. This is where Kenya lags behind. There's no question there's liquidity problem, demand problem and obviously cost of production problem. The only countries in africa that rank high consistently on economic freedom indices are Mauritius and Botswana.   

[RV Pundit]

Macro-economics are good - economic growth rate/inflation/interest rate - only problem we have is possible debt problem - although if SGR breaks even as it is soon expected - we should be fine- & maybe stagnant export - and credit squeeze to private sector due to interest rate capping.

Kenya is generally doing well - folks just like to complain. Scoring 61 in Ease of Doing is no laughing matter - when we were 100 plus few years ago.

Ease of doing business measures processes. Ease of getting licenses and permits etc. While its good we're improving on this front. It doesn't measure the macro economics of the country or how free the economy is. This is where Kenya lags behind. There's no question there's liquidity problem, demand problem and obviously cost of production problem. The only countries in africa that rank high consistently on economic freedom indices are Mauritius and Botswana.   

[gout]

Another practical economic indicator - scramble for single rooms in the real estate market.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Rent-for-one-room-houses-rises-the-most-in-five-years/3946234-4840382-15pngai/index.html

[hk]

Macro-economics are good - economic growth rate/inflation/interest rate - only problem we have is possible debt problem - although if SGR breaks even as it is soon expected - we should be fine- & maybe stagnant export - and credit squeeze to private sector due to interest rate capping.

Kenya is generally doing well - folks just like to complain. Scoring 61 in Ease of Doing is no laughing matter - when we were 100 plus few years ago.

Atleast now you acknowledge begrudgingly that debt might be a problem. Those growth numbers are in doubt, for a economy growing by 6% it sure isn't generating commensurate revenue even after tax hikes. Kenyans don't like to complain, ask anyone in business how they're doing.
As gout points out, people are downsizing from kadogo economy to single rooms rentals.

[hk]

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Diesel-kerosene-sales-data-dent-theory-adulteration/539546-4846198-13bpcea/index.html Diesel consumption is declining. This is another indicator of a struggling economy. Movement of goods and people in kenya is primarily via diesel powered trucks and matatus. In addition it means treasury budget deficit will only get bigger since kra won't raise the predicted revenue. Treasury just shot itself in the foot by raising taxes. Kra will now collect less than it would have at the lower rate.

[KenyanPlato]

I saw Kenya had 23 billion overdraft at cbk

[RV Pundit]

It doesn't look good - but it could be trunks being knocked off the road by SGR or diesel power station getting shut out by Turkana wind. Also most of adulteration could be fuel destined for re-export to Uganda and the region - and with kerosene becoming expensive - that had to stop. It very likely you see such a sharp drop in consumption - unless fuel was that elastic to price increase.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Diesel-kerosene-sales-data-dent-theory-adulteration/539546-4846198-13bpcea/index.html Diesel consumption is declining. This is another indicator of a struggling economy. Movement of goods and people in kenya is primarily via diesel powered trucks and matatus. In addition it means treasury budget deficit will only get bigger since kra won't raise the predicted revenue. Treasury just shot itself in the foot by raising taxes. Kra will now collect less than it would have at the lower rate.

[hk]

Budget deficit will be higher than 6%, most likely 7%. The increase in taxation isn't raising enough revenue, its having the opposite effect. Shilling will continue to be under pressure https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/the-worst-probably-isn-t-over-for-kenya-s-shilling-here-s-why

[Higgins the genius]

Budget deficit will be higher than 6%, most likely 7%. The increase in taxation isn't raising enough revenue, its having the opposite effect. Shilling will continue to be under pressure https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/the-worst-probably-isn-t-over-for-kenya-s-shilling-here-s-why

The dollar is at 102 and falling

[hk]

Another jubilee flagship project that's been a complete flop and also increased the price of electricity. https://ntv.nation.co.ke/news/2720124-4876440-102sqfj/index.html  and  https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Connecting-poor-hands-Kenya-Power-Sh3bn-debt/4003102-4878676-bb1m98/index.html
There's another scandal brewing on export of crude oil.

[GeeMail]

KPLC should hire Pundit as chief chef.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/How-Kenya-Power-cooked-books-ahead-of--2017-poll-pressure/4003102-4875332-format-xhtml-4n7e6c/businessdailyafrica.com

[patel]

At what point will Kenyans stand up and say uhuru experiment has failed miserably and let someone else try , how selfish can one be to see they have failed miserably by all KPI and still insist on cringing to power even as his fellow country man continue to suffer. There comes a time when the nation is greater than individual. He can fake some injury or sickness and hand over power kimya kimya.

[gout]

The Jubilee rosy macroeconomics unraveling

Kenya is likely to borrow at higher rates if it goes to the international markets after yields on its Eurobonds jumped to hit the highest level since launch in the international markets.

Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows the 30-year bond stood at a high of 10.284 percent on November 27 before easing to 10.014 percent and 9.8 percent last Thursday. The issue first traded in the open market on February 23 at a yield of 8.021 percent, meaning the high reached last week amounts to an increase of 2.263 percentage points.

The 10-year bond has seen its yield rise to 9.071 percent compared to 7.07 percent when it was launched into the market on February 23. Yields on bonds issued in 2014 have also risen.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/marketnews/Rising-Eurobond-rates-to-increase-cost-of-new-debt/3815534-4881150-ujlev6z/index.html

Treasury will borrow Sh100 billion more from the domestic market in the next financial year as it cuts new foreign loans in a shift that looks set to lock out households and businesses from bank credit.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Rotich-raises-domestic-borrowing-by-Sh100bn/3946234-4881448-36ymmh/index.html

The saving grace is that a game with crappy players can go on forever. Economic shitholes just get deeper.

[hk]

Another jubilee flagship project that's been a complete flop and also increased the price of electricity. https://ntv.nation.co.ke/news/2720124-4876440-102sqfj/index.html  and  https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Connecting-poor-hands-Kenya-Power-Sh3bn-debt/4003102-4878676-bb1m98/index.html
There's another scandal brewing on export of crude oil.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-in-Sh270bn-race-to-connect-all-homes/539546-4885258-10o1lkw/index.html Jubilee government now wants to double down on universal electricity connection. Yet its clear the increased connection has raised the cost of electricity and hampered economic growth. To jubilee things like electricity connection are economic progress instead of actual rising incomes which would lead to electricity connections.