Poor Raila in Luo-only 2022 bid

[RV Pundit]

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After so many lost elections - he seem to have ran out of takers outside Luo Nyanza. It's now left to Orengo and few Luo mps to parrot that Raila will ran in 2022
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/You-are-on-your-own--Coast-leaders-tell-Raila/1064-4783492-7x7ooy/index.html

[Kichwa]

You are too desperate dude.  Do you really think that's how politics works anywhere?  2022 elections will not be won by a newspaper headline in 2018. How many headlines have we read about Ruto Kaput that you have dismissed and somehow Raila kaput headlines are supposed to be dispositive of an elections four years from now.  Just chill. 2022 will get here and we will do what we always do at the right time-make predictions and spin our candidates. Its too early. Let us talk about relevant stuff like war on corruption, okoth obado, the economy, etc.

After so many lost elections - he seem to have ran out of takers outside Luo Nyanza. It's now left to Orengo and few Luo mps to parrot that Raila will ran in 2022
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/You-are-on-your-own--Coast-leaders-tell-Raila/1064-4783492-7x7ooy/index.html

[Kadudu]

I can understand Pundit as 2022 is for his man to loose. You are right. That election is too far. A proper election without a manipulated IEBC will be won in less than 3 months before the election. Any other nonsense before this time period ni kelele ya debe.

You are too desperate dude.  Do you really think that's how politics works anywhere?  2022 elections will not be won by a newspaper headline in 2018. How many headlines have we read about Ruto Kaput that you have dismissed and somehow Raila kaput headlines are supposed to be dispositive of an elections four years from now.  Just chill. 2022 will get here and we will do what we always do at the right time-make predictions and spin our candidates. Its too early. Let us talk about relevant stuff like war on corruption, okoth obado, the economy, etc.

[RV Pundit]

That is lie. Election are not won 3 months - that is just re-alignment - but elections are won long before that - and those 3 months is where everyone come to the auction table - with what they've got! Election are won now! Lazy bone like Kalonzo is yet to realize that....hoping the stars will somehow align to themselves 3 months to election..and everyone will see how cute he is..and give him pork. Right now Ruto is doing great..building political network and support base....that he will use to negotiate in 2022.

I can understand Pundit as 2022 is for his man to loose. You are right. That election is too far. A proper election without a manipulated IEBC will be won in less than 3 months before the election. Any other nonsense before this time period ni kelele ya debe.

[Kichwa]

There is no one formula for winning elections, but one thing is for sure, one day in politics can make a lot of difference-ask Obado if you do not believe me.  Right now we are all focused on Ruto, Raila, and the other usual suspects, however, the next president of Kenya could be none of those guys because there is still a lot of time for crazy twists and turns of politics to occur. I will therefore hold on to the prediction game until maybe sometimes in 2021. What's the rush?

That is lie. Election are not won 3 months - that is just re-alignment - but elections are won long before that - and those 3 months is where everyone come to the auction table - with what they've got! Election are won now! Lazy bone like Kalonzo is yet to realize that....hoping the stars will somehow align to themselves 3 months to election..and everyone will see how cute he is..and give him pork. Right now Ruto is doing great..building political network and support base....that he will use to negotiate in 2022.

I can understand Pundit as 2022 is for his man to loose. You are right. That election is too far. A proper election without a manipulated IEBC will be won in less than 3 months before the election. Any other nonsense before this time period ni kelele ya debe.

[RV Pundit]

You can apply that to life and anything. But there is only one consistent way of winning - working hard at it. Therefore Ruto was right to start 2022 campaign as soon as 2017 was done.

There is no one formula for winning elections, but one thing is for sure, one day in politics can make a lot of difference-ask Obado if you do not believe me.  Right now we are all focused on Ruto, Raila, and the other usual suspects, however, the next president of Kenya could be none of those guys because there is still a lot of time for crazy twists and turns of politics to occur. I will therefore hold on to the prediction game until maybe sometimes in 2021. What's the rush?

[Kichwa]

Ruto's rise to power has been mostly luck and I think he is running out of it.  Anybody with his kind of stolen money can criss-cross the country with fleets of choppers and SUV's dishing out money. How hard is that?. That's not my concept of "hard work".

You can apply that to life and anything. But there is only one consistent way of winning - working hard at it. Therefore Ruto was right to start 2022 campaign as soon as 2017 was done.

There is no one formula for winning elections, but one thing is for sure, one day in politics can make a lot of difference-ask Obado if you do not believe me.  Right now we are all focused on Ruto, Raila, and the other usual suspects, however, the next president of Kenya could be none of those guys because there is still a lot of time for crazy twists and turns of politics to occur. I will therefore hold on to the prediction game until maybe sometimes in 2021. What's the rush?

[RV Pundit]

Certainly he is not the only thief. The entire political class are thieves. There is a lot of ground work that goes into criss-crossing the country. Lots of planning spanning weeks. Ruto is building his political network, becoming independent and not waiting for Uhuru to "Tosha" him. Yeah he has quite a lucky streak since 92 that include a time at ICC very luckly indeed. His opponent when they see how luckly he is just don't want to compete.

Ruto works hard - always at work by 5-6 am - and doesn't waste "time" till very late. That kind of hard work will also pay. When it come politics or stealing or anything.

Ruto's rise to power has been mostly luck and I think he is running out of it.  Anybody with his kind of stolen money can criss-cross the country with fleets of choppers and SUV's dishing out money. How hard is that?. That's not my concept of "hard work".

[Higgins the genius]

Pundit, why is WSR against the referendum?! And it appears as if Uhuru has dumped him

[Kichwa]

He is definitely a hard working dude-let me give him that and only add that  the millions he has stolen makes it much easier. I also understand why he is so bitter with Raila because he carefully and meticulously to the point that he believed it was inevitable. He thought he could weather the handshake but now he is starting to panic.  He should now resign to the fact that it is never easy and that he is not the only one working hard in Kenya.

Certainly he is not the only thief. The entire political class are thieves. There is a lot of ground work that goes into criss-crossing the country. Lots of planning spanning weeks. Ruto is building his political network, becoming independent and not waiting for Uhuru to "Tosha" him. Yeah he has quite a lucky streak since 92 that include a time at ICC very luckly indeed. His opponent when they see how luckly he is just don't want to compete.

Ruto works hard - always at work by 5-6 am - and doesn't waste "time" till very late. That kind of hard work will also pay. When it come politics or stealing or anything.

Ruto's rise to power has been mostly luck and I think he is running out of it.  Anybody with his kind of stolen money can criss-cross the country with fleets of choppers and SUV's dishing out money. How hard is that?. That's not my concept of "hard work".

[RV Pundit]

Ruto is the heir apparent and all schemes being designed are targeting him. It's akin to Saitoti in pre-2002. The referendum is targetting him and he'd be a fool to support it. I think Uhuru is having second thoughts about retiring and is entertaining ideas about extending his rule through a constitutional change that will expand the executive. It's dead on arrival and he won't know what it him. The good thing will all these machination is that Ruto will end up a powerful pork with independent powerbase.

Ruto has to continue building his network without any assurance of backing from Uhuru. I think he is nearly nailing Western and Coast. That will give him huge boost. Uhuru cannot fight Ruto directly so that make it easy job for Ruto.

Ruto has to work on Plan A - that doesn't include Uhuru backing him. I think if he had to his URP base - the coast and the western (this one is hard because they will want a running mate) - that should take him to 35-40%.

Pundit, why is WSR against the referendum?! And it appears as if Uhuru has dumped him

[Pajero]

Pipe dream

[Kichwa]

Ruto is completely dependent on Ouru to be president and therefore there is no plan he can come up with that does not include Ouru's endorsement.  The referendum will address a lot of other issues other than Ruto's presidency and therefore its not all about Ruto. Kenya is bigger than Ruto.  The only other way Ruto can be president is if Ouru's dies in office and he takes over.

Ruto is the heir apparent and all schemes being designed are targeting him. It's akin to Saitoti in pre-2002. The referendum is targetting him and he'd be a fool to support it. I think Uhuru is having second thoughts about retiring and is entertaining ideas about extending his rule through a constitutional change that will expand the executive. It's dead on arrival and he won't know what it him. The good thing will all these machination is that Ruto will end up a powerful pork with independent powerbase.

Ruto has to continue building his network without any assurance of backing from Uhuru. I think he is nearly nailing Western and Coast. That will give him huge boost. Uhuru cannot fight Ruto directly so that make it easy job for Ruto.

Ruto has to work on Plan A - that doesn't include Uhuru backing him. I think if he had to his URP base - the coast and the western (this one is hard because they will want a running mate) - that should take him to 35-40%.

Pundit, why is WSR against the referendum?! And it appears as if Uhuru has dumped him

[Ole]

Uhuru is either playing Raila or Ruto. He knows they are the front runners and both will largely depend on him. Whoever he supports will have the upper hand.

[RV Pundit]

That is true. Uhuru hold the trump card. He controls GEMA vote and gov machinery. He has two options - he either stick to Jubilee plan, pick a deputy for Ruto from GEMA and retire as respected party leader or he tries executive PM role - where he will be in parliament surbordinate to PORK - Raila option - which will entail a messy divorce with Ruto & RV - and huge potential for problems in Rift Valley - and all so he can become a glorified Duale.

All considered knowing Uhuru has made tonnes of money, never really wanted pork so badly except for ICC troubles and is probably thinking of retiring - he will go with least path of resistance - Ruto option - he'll groom a successor and become influential party leader.

Uhuru is either playing Raila or Ruto. He knows they are the front runners and both will largely depend on him. Whoever he supports will have the upper hand.

[GeeMail]

Ruto must be watching with glee how the media is attempting to play Orengo against Raila. At a time when inflation is killing Kenyans and farmers cannot be paid for the produce delivered to NCPB.

[Kichwa]

wishful thinking!

That is true. Uhuru hold the trump card. He controls GEMA vote and gov machinery. He has two options - he either stick to Jubilee plan, pick a deputy for Ruto from GEMA and retire as respected party leader or he tries executive PM role - where he will be in parliament surbordinate to PORK - Raila option - which will entail a messy divorce with Ruto & RV - and huge potential for problems in Rift Valley - and all so he can become a glorified Duale.

All considered knowing Uhuru has made tonnes of money, never really wanted pork so badly except for ICC troubles and is probably thinking of retiring - he will go with least path of resistance - Ruto option - he'll groom a successor and become influential party leader.

Uhuru is either playing Raila or Ruto. He knows they are the front runners and both will largely depend on him. Whoever he supports will have the upper hand.

[RV Pundit]

Which part - Uhuru has two options - Raila or Ruto - I am certain he'll pick Ruto - the path of the least resistance - he aint cut for rough & tumble that would be required to extend his term in office.

wishful thinking!

[Kichwa]

Raila is not in same league as  Ruto.  Ruto is desperate to be president because he had put all his eggs in one basket.  Raila on the other hand does not have to be president. Raila can be a statesman, a president,  a prime minister or just Baba.  Let Raila enjoy his old days in peace while Ruto worries what will become of him after and before 2020.

Which part - Uhuru has two options - Raila or Ruto - I am certain he'll pick Ruto - the path of the least resistance - he aint cut for rough & tumble that would be required to extend his term in office.

wishful thinking!

[RV Pundit]

The only desperate man is Raila who has been running for pork since 1997 (or 1982 ) - when ruto was trying his maiden ran for mp (or in primary school ) - Raila was already going for pork  (or trying to overthrow one) and now 20yrs later or is it 30yrs later - Raila is an underdog in a race against Ruto.Where Raila is reckless, Ruto is meticulous. I know Raila is busy throwing bananas  (bending over for Uhuru to pick any orifice) hoping Ruto will slip in his quest to win GEMA vote but at end of the day - it will come down to trust - who btw Ruto or Raila will Uhuru/GEMA trust? Who has the biggest ability to hurt them? All boxes are ticking for Ruto.

Think about that. Raila's men competed against Kenyatta snr. Lost. Against Moi and lost. Against Kibaki and lost. Against Kenyatta Jnr and lost. Now they are gearing for the beating of the century against Ruto....and probably next will be Kenyatta Jnr Jnr.

Raila is not in same league as  Ruto.  Ruto is desperate to be president because he had put all his eggs in one basket.  Raila on the other hand does not have to be president. Raila can be a statesman, a president,  a prime minister or just Baba.  Let Raila enjoy his old days in peace while Ruto worries what will become of him after and before 2020.