The sooner Uhuru tell off IMF the better for Kenya.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Uhuru-adviser-hits-out-at-IMF-s-Sh150bn-loan-terms/539546-4711502-t7yxxwz/index.html
Wow. According to the writer, Uhuru's chap
I got lost right there. If I recall correctly,
Kenya went to the IMF to ask for this facility and has repeatedly done plenty of begging over it. If now Kenya no longer needs it, then there is no need to hit out or whatever; Kenya can simply write a letter saying "thank you, no longer needed". As far as I can tell, the IMF has no shortage of those that need its money.
As to the statements that Kenya has plenty in its foreign reserves, enough for 6 months of import cover, and what-not, there's this:
* In March this year, Kenya went to the IMF begging for an extension of that facility. In that and an accompanying letter by Rotich and Njoroge (pleading drought, elections, etc.). Kenya promised to do all sorts of things ... and so "please, please extend!". The request and letter are here:
https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2018/cr1883.ashxIn March 2018, Kenya had 6 months worth of cover for foreign imports, which is about the same as what it has right now. So if that much cover is enough to not beg now, why was there begging in March? Let's take a closer look at what has actually been said.
* Supposedly even Patrick Njoroge of the CBK has said that we no longer need this money. So there!, the thinking seems to go. Mr. Njoroge is a bright fellow, and I was astonished to read that he had supposedly stated something that "dumb" just a few months after signing the begging letter to the IMF. So I too a closer look. As it turns out, his words were appropriately nuanced, something that was not appreciated by even the journalists reporting on the same.
Here's an example:
https://www.nation.co.ke/business/CBK-now-says-shilling-does-not-need-IMF-guarantee/996-4691192-ywj9qc/index.html
That's not quite it. The Nation article then gives us Mr. Njoroge's exact words, and they should be read carefully:
from that perspective. We have 5.9 months of import cover. We are pretty comfortable in that sense
From that perspective. In that sense. So, is there another perspective? Another sense? Yes:
But speaking at a news conference in Nairobi on Tuesday, following a Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision on Monday, Dr Njoroge said the facility would be crucial to provide liquidity to the financial system, if necessary.
Crucial. If necessary. As I understand it, that is what the facility is about and has always been about, whence the word "standby". In fact "crucial" and "necessary" are conditions to draw on that facility. It is not about whether it is needed this very minute.
Is $1.5 billion peanuts in an economy of Kenya's size? Many would consider Kenya's economy to be peanut-sized, but we won't get anywhere talking about peanuts in a peanut. Instead, let's reflect om the fact that not too long ago Kenyan had trouble paying a syndicated loan of $0.6 billion and only managed to do so by taking yet another loan (Eurobond). I believe there is a similar, but slightly larger, loan due early next year? How that particular peanut will be repaid is far from clear.
I'd never heard of this Uhuru man who's landing blows on the IMF. So I thought I should take a look at the "presidency's" website and start there, by way of finding out who's doing what and in what ways, and so on and so forth. I stopped at page 1, on the "Big Four":
http://www.president.go.ke/The first thing there is manufacturing. In Kenya that has stagnated for ages at around 10+/-1 % of GDP. But, finally, salvation is at hand. According to the President & His Men, we are about to leap from 9.2% of GDP to 20% of GDP by 2022. No shit. How? We won't ask. That would be nit-picking. Perhaps we can get some comfort form past major projects. In 2013 we heard about the 1-million-acre Galana project that was going to feed Kenyans. And sure enough, there were Kenyans that "ate big" from it ... just not maize, and just not Wanjiku. Laptops? Haven't heard much about that lately, but what do people make of this?:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001267149/school-has-laptops-but-no-desks-and-classrooms-in-west-pokotand this one
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Big-hurdles-thwart-Jubilee-s-laptops-plan/1056-4676332-9w2jndz/index.htmland this one:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001270444/school-abandons-computer-lessons-as-tablets-remains-unpoweredThis is one I really like:
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001284304/jubilee-s-school-laptops-sold-to-uganda-plays-music-in-a-busaa-clubBut not to worry. A bunch of .pdf files on a bunch of tablet, and the next generation on Kenyan technological revolutionaries are set to go. In fact, Konza City could well have something real by the time they are adults. Plus, there's a "high-level" government body looking at Blockchain.
Never mind. Let's go back to drinking the Kool Aid.