Pundit; Ndii still thinks SGR is a white elephant

[Higgins the genius]

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https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2018/07/21/sgr-by-the-numbers-some-unpleasant-arithmetic/

[RV Pundit]

https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2018/07/21/sgr-by-the-numbers-some-unpleasant-arithmetic/
E Review.

[hk]

If SGR is so efficient and cheap why does government force cargo handlers to use it? Kippra paper shows that SGR annual capacity is 8m not 22m, how about that? Ndii will be proven right by next year.

[Georgesoros]

If SGR is so efficient and cheap why does government force cargo handlers to use it? Kippra paper shows that SGR annual capacity is 8m not 22m, how about that? Ndii will be proven right by next year.

You speak the truth bro...

[RV Pundit]

KPA signed a deal with KR - they have to reserve 40% of cargo for SGR or they pay for it. KPA really has no option. 8M tonne capacity is NONSENSE. The old MGR railways easily use to do 5M - while operating a few trains. SGR is designed for 22M - actually it has capacity upto 35 m metric tonnes - once we begin double stacking.

The train is designed to carry 4,000 tonnes. To get to 20M tonnes - those re just 5000 trains trips per annum - divide by 360 days - those are 14 trains. We are already on 8 trains..12 trains by decemeber. The train is on course to hit 8 yr target NEXT Year. The projections are it will make profit next year.

Right now SGR with 7 trains is transporting 750 plus container daily! Monthly that is easily 20,000 plus containers! annually 300,000 containers - in 2nd year of operations. Our total container traffic is anything 1.3-1.5m.

In first year (which was way ahead of schedule) - we didn't expect any train to be operating - and we did 0.9m metric tonnes running two trains.

Ndii is foold who will be proven to be a real fool very shortly.

If SGR is so efficient and cheap why does government force cargo handlers to use it? Kippra paper shows that SGR annual capacity is 8m not 22m, how about that? Ndii will be proven right by next year.

[hk]

That's the precisely the point. Why does KPA guarantee 40% cargo to go through SGR. The point of building SGR was that it would be cheaper and efficient. Meaning SGR could compete in the market not need special allocation. The kippra report isn't Ndii's its a research by government owned think tank.
This reminds me of the power sector where we have excess capacity but because of guarantees, the prices are preset instead of supply and demand determining the price.

[RV Pundit]

Chinese are sinking billion dollars of their money and therefore they were certain conditions that we accepted. The same with power companies - they need evacute or pay for it...otherwise noboy will sink billions in our infrastructure. In any case I think SGR is cheaper and there were teething problem - 1) empty container taking long to arrive causing importers to pay a lot to shipping line 2) two last mile - from port to miritini & in Nairobi - the miritini has been sorted - SGR was extended right to the port  and now they installed port direct to rail equipments - so basically right now without forcing anyone - it way cheaper and more efficient to route the railway.

NDii is a politician first and economist second. He is very dishonest and is allegedly quoting which KIPPRA report? It would be nice to read it.

Old MGR is the one that can handle 8m. In 80-90s - MGR easily handleds 6m tonnes.

The company believes that this investment will improve the operation of the rail, enabling it to a handle up to 8 million tonnes of cargo per year from the less than 2 million tonnes it currently handles per year.
http://www.monitor.co.ug/Business/Prosper/Railway-costs-prohibitive-despite-RVR-concession/688616-1488080-hj3modz/index.html

That's the precisely the point. Why does KPA guarantee 40% cargo to go through SGR. The point of building SGR was that it would be cheaper and efficient. Meaning SGR could compete in the market not need special allocation. The kippra report isn't Ndii's its a research by government owned think tank.
This reminds me of the power sector where we have excess capacity but because of guarantees, the prices are preset instead of supply and demand determining the price.

[RV Pundit]

Got this from somewhere... these are the guys who understand this railway business.
https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=954002&page=403

n this argument of David Ndii, its not even worth going further than his math.... its all just a buch of bullcrap... I can't believe an ivy league economist can be let to get away with such shoddy micro analysis.... and I cant beleive ppl will actually just consume his class 3 maths and believe it without thinking...
Anyone with half a brain can do the calculations... what he failed to mention is that this 30k containers in 6 months is the first 6 moths of operation(for a rail line that has a lifespan of 100 years)... and he also failed to mention that the containers have been increasing each month... in Jan it was 1 train per day carrying 108 TEUs, in feb it was 2 trains per day (to and fro) carrying 240 TEUs, by march it was 300+ per day........and by 1st of june there were 5 cargo trains carrying +600 containers a day .... this is what leads to the 30k containers in 6 months... statisticly you could say the SGR carryied and average of 166 TEUs a day.... but in reality, each 3 months, cargo on the sgr is doubling...it is expected by Dec 2018, the SGR will be hauling atleast 1, 200 containers a day from the initial 108 in January. .. this is based on the rate of increase of cargo uptake on the sgr...
So, from next year the sgr will be carrying atleast 438k containers p.a if the rate of increase remains the same.... Therefore David ndii's math cannot be used to make any future prediction whatsoever. ... I can tell you for a fact that just because 30k was carried via sgr in the first 6 months , the next 6 months will not be 30k...
if you still dont get what am saying. let me put it this way... by May 2018, the sgr hauled an average of 600 teus per day... this means that for the months of July and aughust the sgr would carry atleast 36k containers in just 2 months. .. More than the entire 1st 6 months of containers carried ... and by January 2019 it will be able to do 36k containers in just one month and so on....... This would generate a revenue of atleast Ksh20billion or $200million p.a far more than david ndii's ksh2.4 Billion projection...

[RVtitem]

[RV Pundit]

Ndii should first get specialized help for his disabled kid
https://www.reactorreview.com/?p=1547

[Nefertiti]

Pundit that kid stuff is below the belt. Why do all these sharp guys have disabled kids? Raila, etc. I think even Bill Gates's kid is autistic. Or asperger's.

[RV Pundit]

Being mental gifted is being "disabled" and that is mostly due to genetics that can be transferred to future generation. So it make sense that outliers will most likely produce outliers - even new species.

Pundit that kid stuff is below the belt. Why do all these sharp guys have disabled kids? Raila, etc. I think even Bill Gates's kid is autistic. Or asperger's.

[Nefertiti]

Wuh. It's quite possible Musk has a disabled kid - the 5 boys are way overprotected. His first born died of "sudden infant death syndrome." Your daughter could also develop issues, go slow on Ndii.

Being mental gifted is being "disabled" and that is mostly due to genetics that can be transferred to future generation. So it make sense that outliers will most likely produce outliers - even new species.

Pundit that kid stuff is below the belt. Why do all these sharp guys have disabled kids? Raila, etc. I think even Bill Gates's kid is autistic. Or asperger's.

[RV Pundit]

You're really into this musk guy.

Wuh. It's quite possible Musk has a disabled kid - the 5 boys are way overprotected. His first born died of "sudden infant death syndrome." Your daughter could also develop issues, go slow on Ndii.

[Nefertiti]

The possibilities he proposes excite me. People treat life like an exam aiming for accuracy rather than going experimental. It disappoints that with all the modern science & tech there is poverty, diseases, drought and a plethora of problems. Musk kind of reasoning can solve very many problems. Presently he proposes to fix internet with a cheap satellite constellation -  as a small side project Regular folks will say fixing global internet to be high bandwidth requires eons and gazillion of cash - even Google has a Loon project or something for balloon experiment - not Musk. He wondered why Google need to "research" 20 year old internet

Musk of course wants to start a human colony and #OccupyMars  

It's not really about the EVs or going to Mars... he's the modern day renaissance man. Nothing is impossible.

You're really into this musk guy.

Wuh. It's quite possible Musk has a disabled kid - the 5 boys are way overprotected. His first born died of "sudden infant death syndrome." Your daughter could also develop issues, go slow on Ndii.

[Nefertiti]

Musk critics..

Global is a kikuyu diehard tribalist. veri lives alone with her cats. bitmask's hero is poor old Raila. Pundit of course worships Ruto - the upteenth politician to be used and dumped by GEMA... who sustain power by playing non-GEMA against each other.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Musk critics..

Global is a kikuyu diehard tribalist. veri lives alone with her cats. bitmask's hero is poor old Raila. Pundit of course worships Ruto - the upteenth politician to be used and dumped by GEMA... who sustain power by playing non-GEMA against each other.

[Kichwa]

Robina, that's a low blow on bitmask.  I wish SGR can succeed but I have a very bad feeling about it based on Dr. Ndii's 3rd grade math which makes a lot of sense to many people and is consistent with a lot of white elephant projects in Africa. Pundit is a brilliant fellow but is completely biased when it comes to Ouruto and since SGR was started under Ouruto, I would not defer to his math or analysis on this matter.

Musk critics..

Global is a kikuyu diehard tribalist. veri lives alone with her cats. bitmask's hero is poor old Raila. Pundit of course worships Ruto - the upteenth politician to be used and dumped by GEMA... who sustain power by playing non-GEMA against each other.

[RV Pundit]

Unlike you I do my own research - in whatever topic it is - over the last few years I have educated myself on matters SGR and I know Ndii is just lying. The maths are pretty simple.
The SGR is designed to haul 4,000 tonnes. There is a lot of consideration that goes into this - obviously the ability of 4,000 tonnes object moving at 80Kph to brake and all that matters.
In containers(TEUS) 4,000 tonnes is 216 TEUS. One SGR train hauls 2,000 tonnes (108) and when double-stack (4,000) -216. TEUS is 20 feet container.

So we know max train on our SGR (China CLASS A) can haul is 4,000 tonnes...we know max hours a day is 24hr....we know the max we are thinking is running a train every 45 minutes day and night - those about 32 trains - reserver 4 trains for passengers trains - 14 trains each making a round trip is the max we can ran in short term.

SGR can therefore carry in a day 4,000(if double stack)*28=112,000 or about 56,000 tonnes (single stack) or in containers about 6,000 (double) or 3,000 single TEUS.

Annually - You simply times 360 days - single stack (22M tonnes) or double stack (45M tonnes). Which comes to roughly what China told us that SGR is designed for 22M tonnes - with capacity going as high as 35M tonnes annually. In containers...we are talking capacity of  2.2M TEUS (double) or 1.1M (single).

Now let examine the last six months of SGR business operation - the whole of last year was trial ran & SGR incurred lots of usual start up expenses & made 10B loss
January - 1 train - average weekly 200 TEUS.- This figure Dr Ndii uses to dismiss SGR - first month of business
Feb - 2 trains(1 more added) - end of Feb climbed to 1,000 TEUS weekly,
March - 3 trains - end of March 2,000 TEUS weekly,
April - 4 trains -end of April 3,000 EUS,
May - 5 trains - averaging 4,000 TEUS weekly
June - 6 trains - average 5,000 TEUS weekly
July - 7 trains - averging 6,000 TEUS weekly  - already about 40% of weekly containers in Mombasa (15,000 or about).

Daily SGR is now 800 TEUS (7 trains * 108 containers) - against target of 3000 TEUS to hit 22M tonnes (which Ndii think is impossible

Now pause and remember we have ran the train for only six months on commercial basis. Before you're done pausing - the amount of cargo we are pulling is already past the 5yr projected cargo.

In six months we are at 5 yrs projected cargo. By December - projected are we will be 8yrs of projected cargo.

Then come here and listen to a DAMN FOOL like Ndii.

By next year - we will be doing 14 trains (28 train trips per day) - about 1M containers annually or nearly 20M tonnes -

And we will have to start thinking about double stacking some of the trains.

This thing is super-profitable. It beyond viable nonsense.EXIM BANK OF CHINA are going to be opening their cheque book for us to borrow more if we want to

Robina, that's a low blow on bitmask.  I wish SGR can succeed but I have a very bad feeling about it based on Dr. Ndii's 3rd grade math which makes a lot of sense to many people and is consistent with a lot of white elephant projects in Africa. Pundit is a brilliant fellow but is completely biased when it comes to Ouruto and since SGR was started under Ouruto, I would not defer to his math or analysis on this matter.

[Kichwa]

 You lost me when you leap-frogged from tonnes hauled  to profitability without discussing cost.?

Unlike you I do my own research - in whatever topic it is - over the last few years I have educated myself on matters SGR and I know Ndii is just lying. The maths are pretty simple.
The SGR is designed to haul 4,000 tonnes. There is a lot of consideration that goes into this - obviously the ability of 4,000 tonnes object moving at 80Kph to brake and all that matters.
In containers(TEUS) 4,000 tonnes is 216 TEUS. One SGR train hauls 2,000 tonnes (108) and when double-stack (4,000) -216. TEUS is 20 feet container.

So we know max train on our SGR (China CLASS A) can haul is 4,000 tonnes...we know max hours a day is 24hr....we know the max we are thinking is running a train every 45 minutes day and night - those about 32 trains - reserver 4 trains for passengers trains - 14 trains each making a round trip is the max we can ran in short term.

SGR can therefore carry in a day 4,000(if double stack)*28=112,000 or about 56,000 tonnes (single stack) or in containers about 6,000 (double) or 3,000 single TEUS.

Annually - You simply times 360 days - single stack (22M tonnes) or double stack (45M tonnes). Which comes to roughly what China told us that SGR is designed for 22M tonnes - with capacity going as high as 35M tonnes annually. In containers...we are talking capacity of  2.2M TEUS (double) or 1.1M (single).

Now let examine the last six months of SGR business operation - the whole of last year was trial ran & SGR incurred lots of usual start up expenses & made 10B loss
January - 1 train - average weekly 200 TEUS.- This figure Dr Ndii uses to dismiss SGR - first month of business
Feb - 2 trains(1 more added) - end of Feb climbed to 1,000 TEUS weekly,
March - 3 trains - end of March 2,000 TEUS weekly,
April - 4 trains -end of April 3,000 EUS,
May - 5 trains - averaging 4,000 TEUS weekly
June - 6 trains - average 5,000 TEUS weekly
July - 7 trains - averging 6,000 TEUS weekly  - already about 40% of weekly containers in Mombasa (15,000 or about).

Daily SGR is now 800 TEUS (7 trains * 108 containers) - against target of 3000 TEUS to hit 22M tonnes (which Ndii think is impossible

Now pause and remember we have ran the train for only six months on commercial basis. Before you're done pausing - the amount of cargo we are pulling is already past the 5yr projected cargo.

In six months we are at 5 yrs projected cargo. By December - projected are we will be 8yrs of projected cargo.

Then come here and listen to a DAMN FOOL like Ndii.

By next year - we will be doing 14 trains (28 train trips per day) - about 1M containers annually or nearly 20M tonnes -

And we will have to start thinking about double stacking some of the trains.

This thing is super-profitable. It beyond viable nonsense.EXIM BANK OF CHINA are going to be opening their cheque book for us to borrow more if we want to

Robina, that's a low blow on bitmask.  I wish SGR can succeed but I have a very bad feeling about it based on Dr. Ndii's 3rd grade math which makes a lot of sense to many people and is consistent with a lot of white elephant projects in Africa. Pundit is a brilliant fellow but is completely biased when it comes to Ouruto and since SGR was started under Ouruto, I would not defer to his math or analysis on this matter.